Jazz offseason as I see it. (Jazz fans ain't gonna like)

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Jazz offseason as I see it. (Jazz fans ain't gonna like) 

Post#1 » by jazzfan1971 » Wed May 8, 2019 6:57 pm

June 20 - NBA Draft.
=====================
Jazz have been sending out 1st rounders for PG help for a while now. Traded a 1st for George Hill. Traded a 1st for Rubio. Tried to trade a pick (and stuff) for Conley before the deadline. I don't think the Jazz want to keep Rubio, and I don't think they like the idea of going with a young PG. Instead they seem to value experienced guys with short shelf lifes.

However, the Jazz want to keep the potential for a max contract open during free agency. This means that any trade would have to be fairly salary neutral unless it's one of those Godfather deals. Jazz also don't have a lot of salary filler to trade. Those 2 things together indicate to me that the Jazz will be forced to keep the pick. I honestly can't predict draft picks that well, and by the 23rd pick in the draft this early in the year any prediction I would make would have almost no value. But, Jazz need shooting. I suspect that whoever we take it'll be someone who can shoot the rock.

July 1st - Opening of free agency.
====================
Jazz have the ability to offer a max deal this offseason. They are not alone. By my count 14 teams have the ability to offer a max contract this summer. A couple of them can offer 2.

Lets say that there are 16 max slots available (might be low) where might the top free agents choose to go?

Prime locations
------------------------
New York x2
Brooklyn
Clippers
Lakers

I would guess that the top 4 or 5 free agents land somewhere in there. So Durant, Kawhi, Irving, Butler, Walker will all likely NOT be playing for Utah next year. (Sorry Jazz fans, I know you had penciled in Walker, but he probably would prefer any of these destinations.

The other guys
------------------------
Indiana
Atlanta
Sacramento
Utah
Dallas

These 5 teams will be fighting over what's left. (only going to list guys I think will A) be on the market and B) Jazz might be interested in)

Tobias Harris - Utah and Dallas will likely be in hot pursuit. Utah can offer a little more money. However, Philly can probably trump any offer if they decide to just pay the man. (Brooklyn, Knicks, and Lakers will also be interested if other plans fall through) My best guess would be that Philly just opens up the wallet and pays the man. If that doesn't happen then I could see the Jazz being in the 1st position assuming all the Prime teams have spent their available cap.

Harrison Barnes - Jazz might decide to throw some serious cash at Barnes and see if they can get him to decline his player option in favor of a long term deal. I think someone will give him a big deal, just who?

Nikola Mirotic - The Jazz would be interested. I'm not sure how willing they'd be to overpay a significant amount for him though. If someone else loves him I think he slips away from the Jazz clutches.

Julius Randle - I think he would be a nice fit for a Favors replacement.

Danny Green - Green seems like a Jazz type player. He's a little old, but that probably wouldn't stop them from offering a 3 year deal. If nothing else gets done this wouldn't be a bad fallback position.

Terry Rozier - Not sure how high the Jazz are on Scary Terry, but he would fill Rubio's vacant position. Might be a good fit.


I would bet that one of those names is on the Jazz roster next year. I prefer they go with someone young so Harris, Barnes, and Randle would be my best 3 guesses. All 3 are somewhat interchangeable as a free agent stretch 4. I'll be optimistic and say that Donovan Mitchell is on his doorstep at Midnight along with a fat max contract to be signed and those things together land Harris on the Jazz. (I wouldn't bet the rent on it though)

New Roster

PG - Exum, Neto, Veteran
SG - Mitchell, Allen, 2nd round pick
SF - Ingles, O'Neal, Niang
PF - Harris, Crowder, Sefolosha (vet min)
C - Gobert, Bradley, 1st round pick

Jazz will need to find a backup pg on the scrap heap. I'm thinking someone like a Jeremy Lin might be available. There are quite a few centers available in the draft, hopefully the Jazz can find someone that can contribute with #23.

So, there you go Jazz fans. Get ready to hand the team over to Dante. Hope Harris isn't fools gold. Hope Gobert never gets injured. Hope Exum never gets injured. Hope Bradley can be a rotation player. Hope the Jazz can strike gold again in the draft at #23.

Sadly this seems like a rather best case scenario to me. This is assuming that the Jazz can land Harris which seems less than even odds to me. Swap him for Barnes or Randle and things get even a bit scarier.

Am I too pessimistic? Will KOC pull a rabbit out of his nether regions? I dunno. I hope so, but for now this is my best guess.
"Thibs called back and wanted more picks," said Jorge Sedano. "And Pat Riley, literally, I was told, called him a mother-bleeper and hung up the phone."
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Re: Jazz offseason as I see it. (Jazz fans ain't gonna like) 

Post#2 » by MoneyTalks41890 » Wed May 8, 2019 7:01 pm

I think this is realistic. Harris would be a good get for the Jazz, but I could see him being interested for the right money.
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Re: Jazz offseason as I see it. (Jazz fans ain't gonna like) 

Post#3 » by DoItALL9 » Wed May 8, 2019 7:02 pm

The Jazz should look at Matt Mooney from TT, likely undrafted, for summer league /camp.

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Re: Jazz offseason as I see it. (Jazz fans ain't gonna like) 

Post#4 » by PharmD » Wed May 8, 2019 7:10 pm

Gonna start Dante Exum?? He's like, borderline playable and never healthy.
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Re: Jazz offseason as I see it. (Jazz fans ain't gonna like) 

Post#5 » by KqWIN » Wed May 8, 2019 7:13 pm

If any max level free agent wants to sign with Utah, it's a no brainer. That's not the difficult part to parse out. What happens when every max player says no is the more interesting question. This isn't a "bad" outcome and don't quite understand the pessimism surrounding it. I think this is a >90th percentile good outcome for the Jazz.
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Re: Jazz offseason as I see it. (Jazz fans ain't gonna like) 

Post#6 » by jazzfan1971 » Wed May 8, 2019 7:13 pm

PharmD wrote:Gonna start Dante Exum?? He's like, borderline playable and never healthy.


I can't sign a max free agent if I keep Rubio. I can't sign a replacement for Rubio if I sign Harris.

Maybe you could trade Crowder and draft pick for Derrick White. But, those kinds of projections are hard to do. Easier to say that it's time for Exum to earn his paycheck.
"Thibs called back and wanted more picks," said Jorge Sedano. "And Pat Riley, literally, I was told, called him a mother-bleeper and hung up the phone."
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Re: Jazz offseason as I see it. (Jazz fans ain't gonna like) 

Post#7 » by KqWIN » Wed May 8, 2019 7:13 pm

PharmD wrote:Gonna start Dante Exum?? He's like, borderline playable and never healthy.


It doesn't really matter who starts, but in this scenario it seems obvious that Royce would be the one picking up the most minutes.
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Re: Jazz offseason as I see it. (Jazz fans ain't gonna like) 

Post#8 » by ejftw » Wed May 8, 2019 7:28 pm

Instead of overpaying for Tobias, wouldn't Utah be better off trying to swap Favors for Gallinari? Gallo has had injury issues, but nothing that's really been repetitive, and is coming off a damn good regular season, albeit, his performance in the playoffs was absolutely putrid. Worst case, he ends up tanking, and you have just under $23M coming off the books.

You can then keep the bird rights on Rubio, and keep him around on a bloated one year deal. Use the MLE to get a backup big man and try to convince a veteran PG (like Lin) to come in for the vet min/BAE.

At #23, snag up Jalen McDaniels and at #53, snag Jaylen Hands

PG: Rubio - Neto - Lin
SG: Mitchell - Alen - Exum
SF: Ingles - O'Neal - Niang
PF: Gallinari - Crowder - McDaniels
CE: Gobert - MLE - Bradley
Rights/Two-Way: Hands
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Re: Jazz offseason as I see it. (Jazz fans ain't gonna like) 

Post#9 » by Fischella » Wed May 8, 2019 7:29 pm

Randle is a Center, stretch PF? what?
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Post#10 » by giberish » Wed May 8, 2019 7:29 pm

A full 30% max to Tobias Harris seems steep and not really worth the PG hole it creates. My outside expectation would be to sign two guys with that money. One a modern PF (Mirotic and Aminu as the top-2 options - both clearly better then Barnes) and the second a PG (I admit there isn't a clear fit as a good $12-18M/yr quality FA PG option - maybe Beverly? resign Rubio? someone I'm forgetting?).
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Re: Jazz offseason as I see it. (Jazz fans ain't gonna like) 

Post#11 » by stitches » Wed May 8, 2019 7:30 pm

I swear if we draft another center in the 1st I'm gonna go berserk.

Overall this is not a bad off-season for the Jazz IMO. If we get someone like Harris this is a win for the Jazz. I don't think they will be content with Exum being the presumptive starter at PG though...
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Post#12 » by MoneyTalks41890 » Wed May 8, 2019 7:30 pm

What PG could Crowder and Exum and a 1st bring back?
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Post#13 » by jazzfan1971 » Wed May 8, 2019 7:31 pm

Fischella wrote:Randle is a Center, stretch PF? what?


He's 6'9 and shot 34% from 3 on 2.7 attempts. The Jazz would certainly use him as a stretch 4 (and some backup 5).
"Thibs called back and wanted more picks," said Jorge Sedano. "And Pat Riley, literally, I was told, called him a mother-bleeper and hung up the phone."
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Re: Jazz offseason as I see it. (Jazz fans ain't gonna like) 

Post#14 » by stitches » Wed May 8, 2019 7:31 pm

MoneyTalks41890 wrote:What PG could Crowder and Exum and a 1st bring back?

Conley...
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Post#15 » by jazzfan1971 » Wed May 8, 2019 7:35 pm

stitches wrote:
MoneyTalks41890 wrote:What PG could Crowder and Exum and a 1st bring back?

Conley...


Conley makes 30. Crowder and Exum together make 16. Unless you have cap space or want to throw in Ingles you probably don't get Conley. Maybe there is some world where you can use Favors or Rubio's salary to make it happen, but I'm not quite sure of the rules on that.
"Thibs called back and wanted more picks," said Jorge Sedano. "And Pat Riley, literally, I was told, called him a mother-bleeper and hung up the phone."
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Re: Jazz offseason as I see it. (Jazz fans ain't gonna like) 

Post#16 » by stitches » Wed May 8, 2019 7:36 pm

jazzfan1971 wrote:
stitches wrote:
MoneyTalks41890 wrote:What PG could Crowder and Exum and a 1st bring back?

Conley...


Conley makes 30. Crowder and Exum together make 16. Unless you have cap space or want to throw in Ingles you probably don't get Conley. Maybe there is some world where you can use Favors or Rubio's salary to make it happen, but I'm not quite sure of the rules on that.

Add Korver.
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Re: Jazz offseason as I see it. (Jazz fans ain't gonna like) 

Post#17 » by jazzfan1971 » Wed May 8, 2019 7:40 pm

FYI - Philly fans are telling me that they will pony up and give Harris a Max deal. I wasn't sure they wanted to clog up so much salary with the impending big contracts they will have to hand out soon. But, it appears from what they are telling me that is the plan.
"Thibs called back and wanted more picks," said Jorge Sedano. "And Pat Riley, literally, I was told, called him a mother-bleeper and hung up the phone."
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Re: Jazz offseason as I see it. (Jazz fans ain't gonna like) 

Post#18 » by jazzfan1971 » Wed May 8, 2019 7:42 pm

stitches wrote:
jazzfan1971 wrote:
stitches wrote:Conley...


Conley makes 30. Crowder and Exum together make 16. Unless you have cap space or want to throw in Ingles you probably don't get Conley. Maybe there is some world where you can use Favors or Rubio's salary to make it happen, but I'm not quite sure of the rules on that.

Add Korver.


We are getting into trade weeds where I'm not that comfortable. But, I believe that Korver has a partially guaranteed contract for next year, so he would only count for 1 mil in a trade unless the Jazz picked up his deal. And if we pick up his deal we won't have that cap space to sign a free agent to a Max deal.

Unless I'm mistaken. I have been wrong on trade minutiae before.

I think we could either trade for Conley or sign a max free agent, but not both. (unless someone like Ingles was going out)
"Thibs called back and wanted more picks," said Jorge Sedano. "And Pat Riley, literally, I was told, called him a mother-bleeper and hung up the phone."
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Re: Jazz offseason as I see it. (Jazz fans ain't gonna like) 

Post#19 » by D Rog » Wed May 8, 2019 7:47 pm

So what you are saying is Dante is your starting pg???

Translation - Donovan is the starting pg by November 5th and Royce is the starting 2 guard.
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Post#20 » by jazzfan1971 » Wed May 8, 2019 7:49 pm

D Rog wrote:So what you are saying is Dante is your starting pg???

Translation - Donovan is the starting pg by November 5th and Royce is the starting 2 guard.


Lol. Maybe. But, if I'm the Jazz I gotta give Exum a little longer chance to prove himself. The Mitchell and Royce thing is always there if needed. Even on Nov 5.
"Thibs called back and wanted more picks," said Jorge Sedano. "And Pat Riley, literally, I was told, called him a mother-bleeper and hung up the phone."

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