Jazz offseason as I see it. (Jazz fans ain't gonna like)
Posted: Wed May 8, 2019 6:57 pm
June 20 - NBA Draft.
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Jazz have been sending out 1st rounders for PG help for a while now. Traded a 1st for George Hill. Traded a 1st for Rubio. Tried to trade a pick (and stuff) for Conley before the deadline. I don't think the Jazz want to keep Rubio, and I don't think they like the idea of going with a young PG. Instead they seem to value experienced guys with short shelf lifes.
However, the Jazz want to keep the potential for a max contract open during free agency. This means that any trade would have to be fairly salary neutral unless it's one of those Godfather deals. Jazz also don't have a lot of salary filler to trade. Those 2 things together indicate to me that the Jazz will be forced to keep the pick. I honestly can't predict draft picks that well, and by the 23rd pick in the draft this early in the year any prediction I would make would have almost no value. But, Jazz need shooting. I suspect that whoever we take it'll be someone who can shoot the rock.
July 1st - Opening of free agency.
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Jazz have the ability to offer a max deal this offseason. They are not alone. By my count 14 teams have the ability to offer a max contract this summer. A couple of them can offer 2.
Lets say that there are 16 max slots available (might be low) where might the top free agents choose to go?
Prime locations
------------------------
New York x2
Brooklyn
Clippers
Lakers
I would guess that the top 4 or 5 free agents land somewhere in there. So Durant, Kawhi, Irving, Butler, Walker will all likely NOT be playing for Utah next year. (Sorry Jazz fans, I know you had penciled in Walker, but he probably would prefer any of these destinations.
The other guys
------------------------
Indiana
Atlanta
Sacramento
Utah
Dallas
These 5 teams will be fighting over what's left. (only going to list guys I think will A) be on the market and B) Jazz might be interested in)
Tobias Harris - Utah and Dallas will likely be in hot pursuit. Utah can offer a little more money. However, Philly can probably trump any offer if they decide to just pay the man. (Brooklyn, Knicks, and Lakers will also be interested if other plans fall through) My best guess would be that Philly just opens up the wallet and pays the man. If that doesn't happen then I could see the Jazz being in the 1st position assuming all the Prime teams have spent their available cap.
Harrison Barnes - Jazz might decide to throw some serious cash at Barnes and see if they can get him to decline his player option in favor of a long term deal. I think someone will give him a big deal, just who?
Nikola Mirotic - The Jazz would be interested. I'm not sure how willing they'd be to overpay a significant amount for him though. If someone else loves him I think he slips away from the Jazz clutches.
Julius Randle - I think he would be a nice fit for a Favors replacement.
Danny Green - Green seems like a Jazz type player. He's a little old, but that probably wouldn't stop them from offering a 3 year deal. If nothing else gets done this wouldn't be a bad fallback position.
Terry Rozier - Not sure how high the Jazz are on Scary Terry, but he would fill Rubio's vacant position. Might be a good fit.
I would bet that one of those names is on the Jazz roster next year. I prefer they go with someone young so Harris, Barnes, and Randle would be my best 3 guesses. All 3 are somewhat interchangeable as a free agent stretch 4. I'll be optimistic and say that Donovan Mitchell is on his doorstep at Midnight along with a fat max contract to be signed and those things together land Harris on the Jazz. (I wouldn't bet the rent on it though)
New Roster
PG - Exum, Neto, Veteran
SG - Mitchell, Allen, 2nd round pick
SF - Ingles, O'Neal, Niang
PF - Harris, Crowder, Sefolosha (vet min)
C - Gobert, Bradley, 1st round pick
Jazz will need to find a backup pg on the scrap heap. I'm thinking someone like a Jeremy Lin might be available. There are quite a few centers available in the draft, hopefully the Jazz can find someone that can contribute with #23.
So, there you go Jazz fans. Get ready to hand the team over to Dante. Hope Harris isn't fools gold. Hope Gobert never gets injured. Hope Exum never gets injured. Hope Bradley can be a rotation player. Hope the Jazz can strike gold again in the draft at #23.
Sadly this seems like a rather best case scenario to me. This is assuming that the Jazz can land Harris which seems less than even odds to me. Swap him for Barnes or Randle and things get even a bit scarier.
Am I too pessimistic? Will KOC pull a rabbit out of his nether regions? I dunno. I hope so, but for now this is my best guess.
=====================
Jazz have been sending out 1st rounders for PG help for a while now. Traded a 1st for George Hill. Traded a 1st for Rubio. Tried to trade a pick (and stuff) for Conley before the deadline. I don't think the Jazz want to keep Rubio, and I don't think they like the idea of going with a young PG. Instead they seem to value experienced guys with short shelf lifes.
However, the Jazz want to keep the potential for a max contract open during free agency. This means that any trade would have to be fairly salary neutral unless it's one of those Godfather deals. Jazz also don't have a lot of salary filler to trade. Those 2 things together indicate to me that the Jazz will be forced to keep the pick. I honestly can't predict draft picks that well, and by the 23rd pick in the draft this early in the year any prediction I would make would have almost no value. But, Jazz need shooting. I suspect that whoever we take it'll be someone who can shoot the rock.
July 1st - Opening of free agency.
====================
Jazz have the ability to offer a max deal this offseason. They are not alone. By my count 14 teams have the ability to offer a max contract this summer. A couple of them can offer 2.
Lets say that there are 16 max slots available (might be low) where might the top free agents choose to go?
Prime locations
------------------------
New York x2
Brooklyn
Clippers
Lakers
I would guess that the top 4 or 5 free agents land somewhere in there. So Durant, Kawhi, Irving, Butler, Walker will all likely NOT be playing for Utah next year. (Sorry Jazz fans, I know you had penciled in Walker, but he probably would prefer any of these destinations.
The other guys
------------------------
Indiana
Atlanta
Sacramento
Utah
Dallas
These 5 teams will be fighting over what's left. (only going to list guys I think will A) be on the market and B) Jazz might be interested in)
Tobias Harris - Utah and Dallas will likely be in hot pursuit. Utah can offer a little more money. However, Philly can probably trump any offer if they decide to just pay the man. (Brooklyn, Knicks, and Lakers will also be interested if other plans fall through) My best guess would be that Philly just opens up the wallet and pays the man. If that doesn't happen then I could see the Jazz being in the 1st position assuming all the Prime teams have spent their available cap.
Harrison Barnes - Jazz might decide to throw some serious cash at Barnes and see if they can get him to decline his player option in favor of a long term deal. I think someone will give him a big deal, just who?
Nikola Mirotic - The Jazz would be interested. I'm not sure how willing they'd be to overpay a significant amount for him though. If someone else loves him I think he slips away from the Jazz clutches.
Julius Randle - I think he would be a nice fit for a Favors replacement.
Danny Green - Green seems like a Jazz type player. He's a little old, but that probably wouldn't stop them from offering a 3 year deal. If nothing else gets done this wouldn't be a bad fallback position.
Terry Rozier - Not sure how high the Jazz are on Scary Terry, but he would fill Rubio's vacant position. Might be a good fit.
I would bet that one of those names is on the Jazz roster next year. I prefer they go with someone young so Harris, Barnes, and Randle would be my best 3 guesses. All 3 are somewhat interchangeable as a free agent stretch 4. I'll be optimistic and say that Donovan Mitchell is on his doorstep at Midnight along with a fat max contract to be signed and those things together land Harris on the Jazz. (I wouldn't bet the rent on it though)
New Roster
PG - Exum, Neto, Veteran
SG - Mitchell, Allen, 2nd round pick
SF - Ingles, O'Neal, Niang
PF - Harris, Crowder, Sefolosha (vet min)
C - Gobert, Bradley, 1st round pick
Jazz will need to find a backup pg on the scrap heap. I'm thinking someone like a Jeremy Lin might be available. There are quite a few centers available in the draft, hopefully the Jazz can find someone that can contribute with #23.
So, there you go Jazz fans. Get ready to hand the team over to Dante. Hope Harris isn't fools gold. Hope Gobert never gets injured. Hope Exum never gets injured. Hope Bradley can be a rotation player. Hope the Jazz can strike gold again in the draft at #23.
Sadly this seems like a rather best case scenario to me. This is assuming that the Jazz can land Harris which seems less than even odds to me. Swap him for Barnes or Randle and things get even a bit scarier.
Am I too pessimistic? Will KOC pull a rabbit out of his nether regions? I dunno. I hope so, but for now this is my best guess.