I Know What They Should Do This Summer 2019: Philadelphia 76ers

[loserX]

We've had some success and interest in these threads in the past, so figured we'd revive them for this year's lottery teams to start!

We are now done all the lottery teams, and are rapidly running out of time before draft day. But I've had at least two requests for this team, so am trying to squeeze them in!

How would you handle the Philadelphia 76ers offseason?

Front office changes, June draft, July free agency, and trades throughout...it's all on the table!

Current salary:
Joel Embiid...........27,270,000.....29,290,000.....31,310,000.....33,330,000
Jimmy Butler.........19,841,627 (PO)
Ben Simmons........ 8,113,930
Jonathan Simmon.... 5,700,000 ($1M guaranteed)
Zhaire Smith......... 3,058,800.....3,204,600 (TO).....4,915,856 (TO)
Jonah Bolden........ 1,698,450.....1,766,550 (ung)....1,845,000 (ung)
James Ennis.......... 1,845,301 (PO)

Free agents: Tobias Harris, JJ Redick, Boban Marjanovic, Mike Scott, Amir Johnson, Furkan Korkmaz, TJ McConnell
Total of above for 2019-20: $67,528,108
2019 projected cap: $109,000,000

That leaves the Sixers with about $41.47M cap room, though they can clear $4.7M more by cutting Jonathan Simmons. The 24th pick will count for about $2.19M if paid 120% of scale, which almost everyone does. There are also roster spots to fill.

Draft
The 76ers have the #24 pick in 2019, and #33, 34, 44 and 54 in the second round.

The Sixes owe their 2020 pick (top-14 prot) but have OKC's (top-20 prot). They have two additional 2nd rounders in each of 2020 and 2021.

Some possible questions to consider:
1) (Jimmy) Buckets' List: The biggest shoe that needs to drop is what is going to happen with Jimmy Butler. The Sixers paid a price to fetch him, but it's hard to tell if Jimmy can be happy there (or anywhere). If he declines his PO, how far will the team go to re-sign him? If he says "I'm leaving", can the team arrange an S&T? If not, what do they do next?
2) Re-Sign of the Times: The Sixers have a lot of capspace...except they don't, really, since much of it is taken up by cap holds for Tobias Harris and JJ Redick. Same questions as for an opted-out Butler: how far should they go in trying to re-sign these guys? Are these the best fits for an Embiid/Simmons core? If they leave anyway, what's the response?
3) Second time a-Round: Philly has *ten* second rounders over the next three drafts. This is not ideal even if everyone does walk. Can they spin wool into gold, and combine these into better picks or useful help?
4) Call for Backup: no matter what happens with the rest of the roster, Joel Embiid needs a legitimate C who can help spell him for minutes, sometimes big minutes. Is there a smart way to get someone reliable here?

The 76ers are on the rise, but are still plagued with questions. How would you start to answer them?

[FlyingArrow]

The big picture is to sign Tobias and Jimmy, and to fill in all the holes, all while staying below the hard-cap apron.

So step one is to sign Tobias and Jimmy to full 5-year max contracts. Jimmy probably won't be worth a max salary at the end of 5 years. And Tobias is probably worth high-20s instead of a full max. But there are plenty of teams that would like to poach them, and Philly really has no leverage to offer anything less than the full max because the likelihood of signing anyone better than those two (if one or both were to walk) is pretty small. It locks Philly in as a real title threat for at least the next 3 years. If Butler doesn't regress too much as he agrees and/or Joel & Ben take big jumps forward, the window will extend for the full 5 years. A legit chance for 5 years will hopefully turn into at least 1 or 2 rings.

But that gives the Sixers a depth chart with plenty of holes:
Ben Simmons / ?? / ??
?? / Zhaire Smith / ??
Jimmy Butler / ?? / ??
Tobias Harris / ?? / Jonah Bolden
Joel Embiid / ?? / ??

A couple of housekeeping items:
* James Ennis is opting out of his player option. Philly is unlikely to keep his services, since a team under the cap will be able to beat Philly's offer, and a player like Ennis should (and likely will) take the most guaranteed money he can get.
* Jonathon Simmons won't be back. Three options: waive and eat the $1M, waive and stretch, or trade. All 3 options could be the best option depending on the situation. Stretch if we end up right at the apron and we need to stay below it. Trade if we need him to match salary. If neither of those occur, waive (without stretching).
* Amir Johnson and Greg Monroe are done. Let them walk.
* Shake Milton was a two-way player who is worth keeping. Give him a real contract.

The Sixers have 3 options with where their total salary lands, and I strongly favor one of those:
* Below the cap is not an option if Tobias and Jimmy sign.
* Below the luxury tax is possible, but they will have a lot of holes that they don't improve by doing that.
* Above the luxury tax but below the apron would let them use the full MLE and BAE. This is where they should land, in my opinion. They'd be hard-capped for the season, but would have much more flexibility in seeking out free agents. Going forward I will assume the goal is to stay below the apron.
* Above the apron. If their salary goes this high, they have to work with a smaller MLE and no BAE. Limited options. This may be where they end up if they really want JJ but someone bids him up to around $15M per year. Otherwise, I don't think they need to push their salary this high.

So at this point we are left with 6 players. Then there's the #24 first round pick. If 8 more players are all vet minimum players ($1,618,486), that puts the Sixers at 15 players and $16,382,807 below the apron:
http://www.shamsports.com/capulator?id=554189185d0816c055e54774338295
(Note that the purpose of the above link is just to illustrate what the roster looks like when filled with minimum-salary players. Most of the players listed would not actually sign for the minimum.)

So that's the budget: about $16 million above minimum, spread out among all the players. We can get a little bit more breathing room by stretching JSimmons instead of waiving him. And a little bit more if, say, two of the 2nd round picks (#33, 34, 44, 54) make the roster at a rookie minimum, which is less than the veteran minimum. Make those assumptions and the budget jumps up to $18,492,132 above minimum contracts for the 6 players who aren't draft picks. Naturally, being above the cap means they can't just sign anyone. They'll have the MLE, BAE, their own free agents, and very limited capability to make trades.

Free agency:
* Full MLE: $9,245,000
* Full BAE: $3,618,000
* Philly re-signing their own free agents. The ones worth considering (in order): JJ Redick, Mike Scott, Boban Marjanovic, TJ McConnell, Furkan Korkmaz

Trade resources:
* Jonathon Simmons' tradeable contract, Fultz's TPE ($2,339,880), Saric's TPE ($957,480)
* Can trade picks (2019: 24, 33, 34, 44, 54 plus future years)

Those are the resources, with a salary limit of no more than about $16M-$18.5M above minimum contracts. I see it playing out something like this, although I'm not filling in all of the names yet:

Ben Simmons / BAE / Veteran Minimum
JJ Redick / Zhaire Smith / Shake Milton
Jimmy Butler / Mike Scott / 2nd Rd Pick (33,34,44,54?)
Tobias Harris / 1st Rd Pick 24 / Jonah Bolden
Joel Embiid / MLE / Boban Marjanovic

1. Most important hole to fill is the starting SG. Redick did fine there this year, and it would be good to bring him back. In order to fit in everything else, Philly should try to bring him back for a low annual salary but a lot of years: 4yr/$25M.
2. Next most important slot is Joel's backup. Biggest asset is the MLE, so use that there. Get the best backup center you can get for $9,245,000 per year.
3. Ben's backup. Use the BAE to get the best backup PG available for $3,618,000.
4. Re-sign Mike Scott at about $4.5M. He was a decent rotation player this year and is worth keeping around.
5. Re-sign Boban Marjanovic at about $3M per year. He was unplayable against Toronto, but in some matchups against bench players he is not just playable but dominant. Joel is going to rest a lot. Having a player who can help win games against weaker teams while Embiid is resting is important.
6. 1st round pick at 24 should be best player available, but it would be nice if it filled the backup PF slot.
7. Hope for one of the 2nd round picks to perform well in training camp and make the roster, and sign someone to a vet minimum contract.
8. Two other 2nd round picks get two-way contracts. G-League, stash, trade, or cut the 4th second-round pick.

If Redick, Scott, and Marjanovic sign at those numbers it leaves the Sixers just shy of the apron with enough breathing room to afford two 10-day contracts during the season if necessary. (But without the ability to offer the 10-day players permanent contracts.)

So now filling in the blanks... I'm going to be a bit optimistic here but will give it a shot.

Ben Simmons / Cory Joseph / TJ McConnell
JJ Redick / Zhaire Smith / Shake Milton
Jimmy Butler / Mike Scott / Cam Johnson
Tobias Harris / Mfiondu Kabengele / Jonah Bolden
Joel Embiid / Dewayne Dedmon / Boban Marjanovic

Two-way: Daniel Gafford, DaQuan Jeffries


* Mfiondou Kabenegele at 24. I've seen some mocks with him this low, but he'll probably be taken before then.
* Dewayne Dedmon for the MLE. But I expect he'll probably end up around $15M instead of the $9.2M Philly can offer.
* Cory Joseph for the BAE if we can get him for that.
* Cam Johnson at 33 for 3rd string SF.
* TJ McConnell for the Vet Minimum.
* Two-way players: Daniel Gafford at 34, DaQuan Jeffries at 44.
* G-League player: Tacko Fall at 54

[loserX]

The big picture is to sign Tobias and Jimmy, and to fill in all the holes, all while staying below the hard-cap apron.

Amazing job! Very well thought out.

I have a minor quibble or two (I don't think Cam Johnson will last into the 2nd round) but overall this is fantastic.

[Spens1]

sign everyone back and try to bring JJ Reddick back on an MLE. If not, some kind of 3&D guy who can shoot incredibly well (cause you'll need it with Simmons at the point).

[the_process]

The only thing I feel fairly certain of is that the Sixers are going to offer 5-188 deals to both Jimmy and Tobias, and then offer a 5-164 extension to Ben Simmons. Assuming they all accept, after that I imagine they would want to use the full MLE and BAE, which would require dumping Jon Simmons and getting a couple of vets to agree that ring chasing is realistic in Philly so they’ll play for the minimum. Redick will be back if his asking price is reasonable. Fill it out with draft picks.

[bigmean]

Easy

Philly gets justice winslow, kris dunn
Chicago gets 4 million from philly, johnathan simmonds #44
Miami gets #24, #33, zhaire smith, jonah bolden rights to andres paskelikis

#34 jontay porter
#54 robert franks

Mle kevon looney
Bring back mike scott jj reddick, tobias harris, jimmy butler


Pg ben Simmons kris dunn
Sg jimmy butler, jj reddick
Sf justice winslow robert franks
Pf tobias harris,mike scott,
C joel embiid, kevon looney, jontay porter

[FlyingArrow]

The big picture is to sign Tobias and Jimmy, and to fill in all the holes, all while staying below the hard-cap apron.

Amazing job! Very well thought out.

I have a minor quibble or two (I don't think Cam Johnson will last into the 2nd round) but overall this is fantastic.

I think the general structure is sound in identifying the needs and resources, and even matching the biggest needs with the biggest resources. But yeah, I was being very optimistic when filling in names. I don't even think Cam Johnson was my biggest reach. Cam at 33 seems more likely than Kabengele at 24. And the biggest reach I had there was getting Dedmon for only the MLE.

[FlyingArrow]

Easy

Philly gets justice winslow, kris dunn
Chicago gets 4 million from philly, johnathan simmonds #44
Miami gets #24, #33, zhaire smith, jonah bolden rights to andres paskelikis

#34 jontay porter
#54 robert franks

Mle kevon looney
Bring back mike scott jj reddick, tobias harris, jimmy butler


Pg ben Simmons kris dunn
Sg jimmy butler, jj reddick
Sf justice winslow robert franks
Pf tobias harris,mike scott,
C joel embiid, kevon looney, jontay porter

I don't think we can get Kevon Looney for the MLE, especially for the lower taxpayer MLE. Looney, JJ, and $13M Justise would push the Sixers past the apron.

It might be worth talking to Looney though.

[donkeylips]

Resign butler, Harris and redick. Run it back, they were one shot away from the ecf. If Leonard leaves, it will just be the bucks in their way to a finals

[FlyingArrow]

Resign butler, Harris and redick. Run it back, they were one shot away from the ecf. If Leonard leaves, it will just be the bucks in their way to a finals

Totally agree with that but I do think it's possible someone outbids for JJ. I don't think the Sixers should go over 13M for him, and even if they have to pay more than 10M they will be very strapped trying to fill out the rest of the roster. That's why I suggest a longer term contact so they can get him for a lower initial salary. Essentially, stretch his contact from the outset. I don't think he has more than 3 more years in the NBA, and probably only one that is worth more than 10M. Hopefully a 4yr/25M sounds better to him than 1yr/15 or 2yr/20.

[916fan]

Big moves to build around Embiid.

Trades
1) Ben Simmons, Jonathan Simmons, 24, and 54 for Bradley Beal

2) S&T Malcom Brogdon for Zhaire Smith and 34th pick. 4 years $76million

Free Agency
1) Resign Jimmy Butler to a 5 year max +TO
2) Resign Tobias Harris to a 5 year max +TO
3) Resign JJ Redick at BAE
4) Sign Thaddeus Young at MLE
5) Sign Jeremy Lin to vet min
6) Sign Joakim Noah to vet min
7) Accept TO for James Ennis


Draft
#33- SF Dylan Windler
#44- PG Carsen Edwards

Team
Brogdon/Lin/Edwards
Beal/Redick
Butler/Ennis/Windler
Harris/Young/Bolden
Embiid/Noah

I don't think this works cap wise though.

[BullyKing]

FlyingArrow did a fantastic job of laying out the various options and cap considerations so I won’t repeat all of the predicates.
I do think they need to need to just offer the full 5-year max contracts for Butler and Harris. Sure, Harris will likely be overpaid and Butler will be overpaid at the end but it’s still the best possible option. The key is just to have them locked up under contract because things change fast in the NBA. We all agreed that DeRozan was overpaid and yet that somehow became the main piece to land Kawhi Leonard. It’s fine to be overpaid in the NBA, you just can’t be an albatross contract. In almost all cases, if you’re playable, your contract is moveable.

Every cent might eventually be important under the apron so I don’t really want to eat the guaranteed portion of Simmons’ salary. Trade him and $1.5 million to Chicago for a future top-55 protected 2nd. Gives the Bulls enough to pay his guaranteed $1 million and a little extra cash.

Sign Pat Beverley for the full MLE: 4 years, 39.8 million.
A lot of attention is rightfully paid to the Sixers need for a backup center but I just feel like the MLE is our best avenue for improving the team and you can find a capable backup center with using a lesser asset. Redick is an extremely important part of the Sixers offense and is largely responsible for providing the gravity necessary for the rest of the team to operate in the half court. But there are also matchups where there is simply no good option for where to hide Redick defensively. Having someone like Beverley will also ease a lot of the wear and tear on Butler because it gives us another strong perimeter defender to blow up the pick and rolls that little guards have killed us with for years. He is that unicorn true 3 and D point guard that is the perfect pair with Simmons.

Sign Kyle O’Quinn for the BAE
I’d love to find a backup center that can also shoot the 3 but beggars can’t be choosers and O’Quinn at least can space it in the midrange game. Most importantly, he’s been a consistently good defender and can provide adequate rim protection when Embiid is out of the game. After a year of being buried on the Pacers bench, the Sixers can offer him a guaranteed rotation spot and minutes with a chance to make a deep playoff run.

Resign Redick: 3 years, 29 million
I would love to get Redick back on a 4yr/25 like FlyingArrow proposed but I just think that’s too low. So I’ve budgeted him in for a three year deal starting at 9 million in season 1.

Resign Mike Scott: 1 year, 3.5 million
I’m ok with letting him walk if he gets above this but he provided some useful depth so I’m happy to have him back at this number. He’s a nice 9th man in a playoff rotation but I’m not sacrificing the chance to improve the 6th, 7th, and 8th men in the rotation for him.

Sign Darius Miller: 1 year, vet minimum
I don’t love the option personally and hopefully there will be a ring chasing wing that is better than this who is willing to take the minimum, which is all we can afford. And really, whoever takes this spot will likely be cut before their contract becomes guaranteed or dumped at the deadline to open a spot for a buyout candidate.

Draft:
The Sixers have 3 picks (24, 33, 34) all in pretty much the same range where any of the three players could realistically be available at any of the three picks so I’ll just list the three players:

Daniel Gafford, Louis King, Terence Davis
With the two later 2nds, the Sixers grab a couple of two way players in Zach Norvell and Jalen Lecque

Finally, the Sixers sign last year’s two way player Shake Milton to a 2 year rookie minimum contract.

Simmons/Beverley/Milton
Redick/Zhaire Smith/Terence Davis
Butler/Darius Miller/Louis King
Harris/Scott/Bolden
Embiid/O’Quinn/Gafford
Two way: Zach Norvell, Jalen Lecque

Leaves the Sixers about $650k below the apron

http://www.shamsports.com/capulator?id=4419412725d08c747e6f1d540383440

[youngcrev]

No point in doing a big write up after what FlyingArrow posted. Perfect template for the "run it back" direction. I don't think Dedmon will be in their price range so I'd be looking at Noel, Vonleh and Ed Davis for a portion of the MLE. I'd kick the tires on Joseph, Hill, Bradley and Curry as a capable guard off the bench that can play on and off the ball. Probably go wing heavy with those first 3 picks and hope one of them is ready to contribute this season.

[Laimbeer]

I'd consider letting Harris go, depending on what he demands. He's very good, but very clearly the fourth option. Any thoughts on what it takes to keep him?

[FlyingArrow]

I'd consider letting Harris go, depending on what he demands. He's very good, but very clearly the fourth option. Any thoughts on what it takes to keep him?

I think it will take the full five year max. If we don't pay it, we don't suddenly get to spend all that money on someone else. Either we operate under the cap and our total team salary is lower, or we operate over the cap but are still restricted to the BAE/MLE/and whatever we can trade for. And we simply have the freedom to overpay JJ or Mike Scott instead of Tobias.

[drchaos]

Big moves to build around Embiid.

Trades
1) Ben Simmons, Jonathan Simmons, 24, and 54 for Bradley Beal

2) S&T Malcom Brogdon for Zhaire Smith and 34th pick. 4 years $76million

Free Agency
1) Resign Jimmy Butler to a 5 year max +TO
2) Resign Tobias Harris to a 5 year max +TO
3) Resign JJ Redick at BAE
4) Sign Thaddeus Young at MLE
5) Sign Jeremy Lin to vet min
6) Sign Joakim Noah to vet min
7) Accept TO for James Ennis


Draft
#33- SF Dylan Windler
#44- PG Carsen Edwards

Team
Brogdon/Lin/Edwards
Beal/Redick
Butler/Ennis/Windler
Harris/Young/Bolden
Embiid/Noah

I don't think this works cap wise though.

Getting Young for the MLE does not seem realistic.

[youngcrev]

I'd consider letting Harris go, depending on what he demands. He's very good, but very clearly the fourth option. Any thoughts on what it takes to keep him?

With the amount of teams on the market, the assumption has been max or near max. Looks like they'd have around 30M in cap space if they renounced everyone but Jimmy. I don't think you're doing better than Harris/JJ/Scott/MLE with that, but it would make the cap more manageable in the future

Brogdon is a guy that's frequently brought up given that scenario since he'd be a pretty ideal fit. It would take overpaying to get him, and you still run the risk of the Bucks both matching and also eating up your cap for a week before doing so.

[FlyingArrow]

In the draft, the Sixers just picked up Matisse Thybulle and Marial Shayok. Both of them are wings (SG/SF).

Here's a more realistic look than my previous roster:

Ben Simmons / Cory Joseph / TJ McConnell
JJ Redick / Zhaire Smith / Shake Milton
Jimmy Butler / Darius Miller / Matisse Thybulle
Tobias Harris / Mike Scott / Jonah Bolden
Joel Embiid / Kyle O'Quinn / Boban Marjanovic

Two-way: Marial Shayok, Haywood Highsmith

Matisse on the roster and Marial on a 2-way. Bring back Haywood Highsmith on the 2-way. Shake converted to an NBA contract. Darius Miller and Kyle O'Quinn split the MLE. Cory Joseph on the BAE.

[FlyingArrow]

I didn't do too badly there. Sixers got Kyle O'Quinn for the minimum - less than I expected. Boban signed elsewhere for pretty much exactly what I suggested the Sixers pay. (I said $3M, he signed for $7M/2yrs.) I said $4.5M for Mike Scott and he signed for between 4.5 and 5. TJ McConnell got more than the minimum. And I of course missed Butler going to Miami and Horford signing with the Sixers, but I don't think many people predicted that.

[BullyKing]

I didn't do too badly there. Sixers got Kyle O'Quinn for the minimum - less than I expected. Boban signed elsewhere for pretty much exactly what I suggested the Sixers pay. (I said $3M, he signed for $7M/2yrs.) I said $4.5M for Mike Scott and he signed for between 4.5 and 5. TJ McConnell got more than the minimum. And I of course missed Butler going to Miami and Horford signing with the Sixers, but I don't think many people predicted that.

Yeah, I think you and I overlapped on those hits. Don't hate what they actually did but would have preferred either of our proposals.

Amazingly, I think the thing you were most "wrong" about was:

* Cam Johnson at 33 for 3rd string SF.