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Jamal Murray and Ben Simmons have rightfully secured a max entension.

But how about the other fourth-year players? Do you think any of them will get the max? Who do you think will get the biggest extension this summer?

Notable players:
> Brandon Ingram
> Jaylen Brown
> Buddy Hield
> Domantas Sabonis
> Caris LeVert
> Pascal Siakam

Good thread.

I think that Siakam is the only other one who could get a max. I don't quite believe that he deserves it, but as clear as the Raptors' books are after this season, and as big a jump as he made for the organization, I don't think they can say "we can't afford to offer...".

Ingram is going to have to prove his health, positive on-court impact and fit next to Zion before an extension arrives. I don't see it happening before the October 21st deadline.

Brown and LeVert are interesting case studies, and I feel that their fates will be linked. Caris' role has been steadier due to his more advanced skill set. Jaylen has been in and out of the starting lineup, but owns superior physical tools, and the better defensive resume. I think both teams will make an offer before 10/21, to try to lock up their guy at a discount before next summer's weak market elicits a strong RFA offer sheet. One note is that LeVert is a ROCNation guy, so Brooklyn will probably come with a more bullish offer than some may predict (other Nets fans say 4/72, I think it'll be 5/120). Doubtless Brown's camp will see this and seek the same, but Ainge will likely overplay his leverage. I expect to see JB hunting for a new home next summer.

Hield is a funny situation. He's an electric scorer who has diversified his game, but splits time with another really talented youngish SG in Bogdanovic. If I were SAC, I'd lean on the fact that they have another starting-caliber player at his position. But they've been tossing out big contracts, so I wouldn't be surprised to see them do the same with Buddy.

Sabonis is a supersub C/PF who is attempting to make the jump to full-time starting PF. His points, rebounds and even assists per36 are beastly, but unfortunately so are his turnovers and fouls. If I'm IND, I can't offer him the extension of a starter without proving he can do it, and if I'm Sabonis, I wouldn't take anything less.

Siakam and possibly Hield are the only two on that list that I think will be paid this summer. The other guys all need to prove themselves a bit more before they get offer sheets.

Another guy that should be listed is Malik Beasley. I think he's a similar caliber player to Harris, so it will be interesting to see what the Nuggets do there considering they already paid Murray.

LofJ wrote:Another guy that should be listed is Malik Beasley. I think he's a similar caliber player to Harris, so it will be interesting to see what the Nuggets do there considering they already paid Murray.

Beasley is a good player. But I would say he's clearly a tier or two below the other players listed in the poll.

ecuhus1981 wrote:Good thread.

I think that Siakam is the only other one who could get a max. I don't quite believe that he deserves it, but as clear as the Raptors' books are after this season, and as big a jump as he made for the organization, I don't think they can say "we can't afford to offer...".

Ingram is going to have to prove his health, positive on-court impact and fit next to Zion before an extension arrives. I don't see it happening before the October 21st deadline.

Brown and LeVert are interesting case studies, and I feel that their fates will be linked. Caris' role has been steadier due to his more advanced skill set. Jaylen has been in and out of the starting lineup, but owns superior physical tools, and the better defensive resume. I think both teams will make an offer before 10/21, to try to lock up their guy at a discount before next summer's weak market elicits a strong RFA offer sheet. One note is that LeVert is a ROCNation guy, so Brooklyn will probably come with a more bullish offer than some may predict (other Nets fans say 4/72, I think it'll be 5/120). Doubtless Brown's camp will see this and seek the same, but Ainge will likely overplay his leverage. I expect to see JB hunting for a new home next summer.

Hield is a funny situation. He's an electric scorer who has diversified his game, but splits time with another really talented youngish SG in Bogdanovic. If I were SAC, I'd lean on the fact that they have another starting-caliber player at his position. But they've been tossing out big contracts, so I wouldn't be surprised to see them do the same with Buddy.

Sabonis is a supersub C/PF who is attempting to make the jump to full-time starting PF. His points, rebounds and even assists per36 are beastly, but unfortunately so are his turnovers and fouls. If I'm IND, I can't offer him the extension of a starter without proving he can do it, and if I'm Sabonis, I wouldn't take anything less.

Thanks for the support.

Seeing how each franchise have been operating lately, I would say Hield is a lock to get an extension this summer. And he will get paid BIG.

I'm also convinced that Siakam and Sabonis will get extended. But I believe Hield will get the biggest extension.

Siakam I could see getting locked up because someone will max him. I’d hope the Kings could come to an agreement on a good number for Buddy, something like 4/80 seems reasonable given what they just gave Barnes, but I wouldn’t want to get in a spot of having to max him.

IF all of these players were presented extension offers, here's my guess at what the teams would offer, and what the player would say:

Ingram - 3 years, $45mil, 3rd year team option (no)
Brown - 4 years, $75mil (no)
Hield - 4 years, $102mil (yes)
Sabonis - 4 years, $59mil (no)
LeVert - 4 years, $91mil (yes)
Siakam - 4 years, $120mil (yes)

Brandon, at full health, is worth way more than his offer. But I don't see NOP wanting to commit long-term money anywhere until they see who and what fits around Williamson. Also, the Pels are going to be concerned about his heart condition. IF they HAD to make an offer, it wouldn't be normal "market value" for a 21yo 18/5/3/1/1 machine with great physical tools.

Likewise, Indy are going to want to see a full season of Sabonis at PF full-time next to Turner, before ponying up. Their offer right now would not be representative of their *hope* of his long-term role.

Final note: in '20-'21 when these extensions will begin, the salary cap is projected to be $117mil. A 4-year 25% max for these players (less than 7yrs NBA exp) with maximum 8% annual raises would be something like $131mil. So, I see all of these guys taking a haircut off the maximum.

ecuhus1981 wrote:IF all of these players were presented extension offers, here's my guess at what the teams would offer, and what the player would say:

Ingram - 3 years, $45mil, 3rd year team option (no)
Brown - 4 years, $75mil (no)
Hield - 4 years, $102mil (yes)
Sabonis - 4 years, $59mil (no)
LeVert - 4 years, $91mil (yes)
Siakam - 4 years, $120mil (yes)

Brandon, at full health, is worth way more than his offer. But I don't see NOP wanting to commit long-term money anywhere until they see who and what fits around Williamson. Also, the Pels are going to be concerned about his heart condition. IF they HAD to make an offer, it wouldn't be normal "market value" for a 21yo 18/5/3/1/1 machine with great physical tools.

Likewise, Indy are going to want to see a full season of Sabonis at PF full-time next to Turner, before ponying up. Their offer right now would not be representative of their *hope* of his long-term role.

Final note: in '20-'21 when these extensions will begin, the salary cap is projected to be $117mil. A 4-year 25% max for these players (less than 7yrs NBA exp) with maximum 8% annual raises would be something like $131mil. So, I see all of these guys taking a haircut off the maximum.

Indy has prioritized extension talks with Dom over filling the 14th roster spot so far. I’d bet that if he’d take what Myles did, or better yet less, we’d happily extend him this year. At that point, combined, they’d only make a couple million more than KAT.

I think the Nets might try to extend Allen rather than wait and let him test the market.

As far as who should get a max extension, Siakam and that's it. There are still question marks surrounding the other players. There's the injury risk of the upcoming season that the team is assuming as well. The only guys coming off of a rookie deal who should get a $130M commitment are the guys who you'd be comfortable paying that much to if they never improve beyond where they're at now.

The CBA gives the teams the extra year to evaluate and far too many of them surrender it for nothing.

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jbk1234 wrote:I think the Nets might try to extend Allen rather than wait and let him test the market.

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I'm pretty sure Jarrett Allen is ineligible for rookie scale extension this summer.

DeathLineup wrote:

jbk1234 wrote:I think the Nets might try to extend Allen rather than wait and let him test the market.

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I'm pretty sure Jarrett Allen is ineligible for rookie scale extension this summer.

You're right. He has one more season.

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Siakam is the one guy left who would be worth a 25% max extension - except that Toronto looks to have a lot of cap space next summer and may look to leverage that by just having Siakam's cap hold rather then a full salary on the books to start FA next July. Of course, unless Anthony Davis is leaving the Lakers for Toronto I'm not sure what they'd do with their big cap space so maybe they just lock up Siakam now. Perhaps getting 5 years rather then a 4 year with player option for the 4th year deal.

Heild seems more like a $20M/yr level player. Though with the FA market so bad next summer there's the danger that he'd get a crazy offer elsewhere.

giberish wrote:Siakam is the one guy left who would be worth a 25% max extension

If we're simply talking about who's worthy, I would say it's Brown. I like his ceiling the most. He was special during the Celtics run to Eastern finals two years ago.

DeJounte should be on this list. He's likely not the top guy, but I think he'll be a notable member of this class by the end of the year.

Chinook wrote:DeJounte should be on this list. He's likely not the top guy, but I think he'll be a notable member of this class by the end of the year.

He's indeed a good player.

But I don't think he's getting an extension this summer considering he completely missed last season. Hence he is excluded from the poll.

Should just take siakam out.. he’s definitely getting maxed.

DeathLineup wrote:

giberish wrote:Siakam is the one guy left who would be worth a 25% max extension

If we're simply talking about who's worthy, I would say it's Brown. I like his ceiling the most. He was special during the Celtics run to Eastern finals two years ago.

Brown's a massive reach for anything near a 25% max deal at this point. After his 2nd year he looked like he was perhaps headed in that direction but took a clear step back this season.

Siakam's already good enough that even if he just stays the same he'd be worth a 25% max deal.

To me, a 25% max deal is about right for the 40th best player in the league (roughly). A 30% max deal for (roughly) the 25th best player, a 35% max deal for the 10th best player, with guys above that underpaid on any allowable contract.

Siakam was comfortably a top-40 player last year. Brown wasn't top-100. Obviously there's room for improvement from all the young guys and teams pay based on what they hope players will develop into.

giberish wrote:

DeathLineup wrote:

giberish wrote:Siakam is the one guy left who would be worth a 25% max extension

If we're simply talking about who's worthy, I would say it's Brown. I like his ceiling the most. He was special during the Celtics run to Eastern finals two years ago.

Brown's a massive reach for anything near a 25% max deal at this point. After his 2nd year he looked like he was perhaps headed in that direction but took a clear step back this season.

Siakam's already good enough that even if he just stays the same he'd be worth a 25% max deal.

To me, a 25% max deal is about right for the 40th best player in the league (roughly). A 30% max deal for (roughly) the 25th best player, a 35% max deal for the 10th best player, with guys above that underpaid on any allowable contract.

Siakam was comfortably a top-40 player last year. Brown wasn't top-100. Obviously there's room for improvement from all the young guys and teams pay based on what they hope players will develop into.

My argument is that Brown would benefit (a lot) from Kyrie's departure.

Meanwhile I'm not sure that Siakam can play as good as he was last season after Kawhi's departure. Defenses would put much more attention on him. And I don't his offensive skillset is good enough to be a legit scorer/creator. His defense should still be great though.

DeathLineup wrote:

giberish wrote:

DeathLineup wrote:If we're simply talking about who's worthy, I would say it's Brown. I like his ceiling the most. He was special during the Celtics run to Eastern finals two years ago.

Brown's a massive reach for anything near a 25% max deal at this point. After his 2nd year he looked like he was perhaps headed in that direction but took a clear step back this season.

Siakam's already good enough that even if he just stays the same he'd be worth a 25% max deal.

To me, a 25% max deal is about right for the 40th best player in the league (roughly). A 30% max deal for (roughly) the 25th best player, a 35% max deal for the 10th best player, with guys above that underpaid on any allowable contract.

Siakam was comfortably a top-40 player last year. Brown wasn't top-100. Obviously there's room for improvement from all the young guys and teams pay based on what they hope players will develop into.

My argument is that Brown would benefit (a lot) from Kyrie's departure.

Meanwhile I'm not sure that Siakam can play as good as he was last season after Kawhi's departure. Defenses would put much more attention on him. And I don't his offensive skillset is good enough to be the main scorer/creator. His defense should still be great though.

Certainly Boston was less then the sum of their parts last season. I expect no extension happens for Brown as his agent will expect a deal based on a playoff run last year and hope for major improvement while Boston would be concerned by his regression last season and how limited his play has been.

Meanwhile for Siakam, he looked very good in the games that Leonard sat out. Plus a top defender who's a quality 2nd or 3rd option can easily be a top-30 player and a bargain on a 25% deal.