Chicago Off Season Review

[Mamba4Goat]

Hi everyone! Meant to have this out on Friday but I delayed it a little! (Sorry!)

Chicago Offseason Review

Key Losses:
Robin Lopez

Losses:
Wayne Seldon?
Random Mins

Draft:
7: Coby White
38: Daniel Gafford

Trades:
(With Washington) Tomas Satoranksy S+T for 2020/2022 2nds swaps

Free Agency:
Tomas Satoransky 3/$30,000,000
Thaddeus Young 3/$43,635,000
Luke Kornet 2/$4,500,000
Ryan Arcidiacono 2/ $6,000,000
Shaq Harrison 1/Min
Coby White (rookie deal)
Daniel Gafford (rookie deal)

Current Depth Chart: (taken from realgm with reason added in)
PG: Tomas Satoransky/Coby White/Ryan Arcidiacono/Kris Dunn
SG: Zach Lavine/Shaq Harrison/Antonio Blakeney
SF: Otto Porter Jr/Chandler Hutchinson/Denzel Valentine
PF: Lauri Markkanen/Thaddeus Young/Luke Kornet
C: Wendell Carter Jr/Cristiano Felicio/Daniel Gafford

HW's Chicago Offseason Review

Key Losses:
Robin Lopez

I went back and forth on what to say about Robin Lopez. Losing the 57th best center by RPM, and a guy who should be declining at this point, doesn't feel like much of a key loss. And worth noting, Markkanen shot considerably better from deep when Lopez sat, which makes sense as he is more likely to be able to get a mismatch that doesn't chase him on the perimeter. (Sure, the team was horrifically worse, but let us assume that was because all the other starters were benched too? Or just a coincidence and not an indictment on Carter at this early juncture).
Granted, Lopez was one of the players keeping the team from falling apart, and it isn't clear Wendel Clark can step in and full time hold down those minutes in addition to his minutes from last year. And therefore we get to see Felicio a bunch? Yes, it is a loss for a team with some win now aspirations, but it was the right and only call even before the idea of bad blood gets involved.

Losses:
Another year

Draft:
Coby White makes tons of sense as the pick. This pick is going to be why I give them a D and not an F. Lots of upside, scoring combo guard who is young and has a high ceiling. Perfect pick, although the scouting report sounds eerily similar to LaVine.

Gafford looks like a solid flier; 538 had him the 24th best prospect for instance. I liked this draft for Chicago.

Trades:
Chicago gave up a swap of the 2020 Memphis 2nd with Washington's, as well as a 2023 2nd free and clear. The swap shouldn't be too bad, and a 2nd 3 years out is an expendable asset. And Satoransky has the last year just partially guaranteed (5m). And you can sell me on Satoransky being the perfect caretaker for a pair of young bigs that need some system to play in. But, I am not a fan. Maybe if it was 2 years and the 2nd 5m guaranteed. 3 years is too long, and I like what Arcidiacono has shown. Even if Dunn is dead money, you have just drafted Coby White, LaVine struggles with his sleight size defending 2's (and 1's), and did you really need to invest 25m in a perfectly so so player at pg? I don't get it, and to the extent it means 3 more wins I don't view it as a positive.

Free Agency:
Thad having his last year fully unguaranteed was a surprise. Does it change my position? It does some... I suddenly have visions of Chicago flipping Thad to a team in need of some decent players. But what could they get? More likely 2 2nds than a 1st. And then I'm looking at Iguodala, at Crabbe, and saying what would have been better is taking the bad salary now. And i actually like both of their fits (on expiring deals!) better than Thad's on a 2 year deal when what Chicago has is a pf.
Satoransky I dislike as a place to spend money. And the length. And a 5m gtd on 10m is a bit steep. At that point it isn't easy to dump and in for 5m already, surely you find 5m more in value to keep the player? I would have liked the deal elsewhere... as in Orlando. But the Chicago offseason signings scream a team trying to win 38 games instead of 23, and only getting to 28. The Charlotte special? I give two thumbs down.


Current Depth Chart: (taken from realgm with reason added in)
Denzel Valentine is still on the team. Seems like the perfect guy to be traded in one of those, I wasn't going to extend him, you weren't going to extend your guy, lets swap em deals.

Needs:
New owner
New gm
New coach
New players
Maybe even a new arena while we are at it

Additional Thoughts:
If this were me, I would be flipping everything not named Coby/Markkanen/Wendel. That includes Otto Porter. And I would be listening on LaVine, even if trying to ride his upside.

But the trade I will throw out is: Satoransky for Orlando pg/Khem Birch/ 2 2nds. Get a young big, a pair of 2nds, and out of the last 1.5 years of Satoransky's deal. Orlando pg is either an expiring Augustin, or it is

Spoiler:

Markelle Fultz after his option is not picked up.

Oh, and thinking far enough ahead, next draft I try to get 2020 1st from Dallas (and maybe a 2027 pick?) to swap LaVine for Tim Hardaway Jr.

Projected Win/Loss: 27 wins
They will be bad. But Porter/Thad/Satoransky should keep them out of the cellar. Not sold that is good, but it is what it is. They are one of the teams that has a chance to have every bounce go right and look like an almost playoff team -- like Sacramento did this past year. If so, that is a worst case outcome long term, but it feels like the goal.

Off-Season Grade: D+
Might be a touch harsh, especially considering I liked how they drafted. But the rest I disliked and just taking the guy expected to go 7th at 7th doesn't win you that many points with me.

Mamba's Chicago Offseason Review

Key Losses:
Robin Lopez

Honestly, I was shocked that RoLo didn't get bought out last year. Didn't he ride the pine for a hot minute (before having to get played and succeeding decently well? Losing him isn't the biggest deal if they trust WCJ to be healthy. Aside from that though losing Lopez and leaving their only center on the roster as Felicio isn't the most inspiring. Lauri will likely see some center minutes, right?

Losses:
I guess I can maybe let Selden qualify to be here? They didn't really lose much..

Draft:
With Lavine, Porter, Lauri, and WCJ all in place it does make sense to pick a PG. However, having one that is close to Zach Lavine may not be the best look. That being said...Coby White is one of my favorite guys from the draft and I think that he could be a stealthy steal (and if there is a redundancy and the Bulls are doing well I wouldn't be opposed to a Lavine/Holiday swap) but I approve of this pick. I may have made a move to try to move up and grab Garland but I'm sure Cleveland was asking for a small fortune.

Trades:
Getting Sato was a bit of a random move. I like the guy a lot as a hold over starter as White develops (White in a sixth man role to start out with could be great for all parties anyways). That being said, they didn't dump Dunn to do so.

Free Agency:
When I saw that Thad went there I was decently confused. He is going to be a great sixth man for them but I feel like he could start somewhere? Maybe their banking on their front court of the future missing a handful of games each? Anyways, I still like him a lot as a vet influence and a glue guy.
As I said above, I'm okay with the Sato move too.
I am a bit confused about them resigning Arci......... (it's too much work spelling his name. Does he have a nickname??) as Sato, Dunn, and White will likely be ahead of him.

Current Depth Chart: (taken from realgm with reason added in)
As HW said, Valentine may be a good guy to send somewhere else for a player that's not in their future. I would definitely target a center though.

Needs:
Backup center
Time. They have a handful of very interesting players that have a decent amount of potential. If they have the right coach things could play out nicely.

Additional Thoughts:
I think Chicago is in the right direction. Sato and Thad fit in very nicely with their youngsters and fills gaps that they have. They have done a good job of filling things out in a decent way, keeping all of their picks and having assets (Hutchinson, Valentine, Dunn, etc.) to find other ways to add talent as needed.

Projected Win/Loss: 30-52
Between some health concerns and having to gel together I think this team likely starts slow and struggles as key guys miss time from time to time. I think they end up being one of those teams that start looking more and more appealing as the season goes and by the end of the season gives us something to be excited about next year.

Off-Season Grade: C+
I think they may be moving things along a little too early and they could use another star potential caliber player before casting the role players and glue guys of the team, but they'll likely be bad enough for a chance this next draft anyways (the new lotto odds help too).

[giberish]

I like the Bulls offseason much more then this. White was a solid pick at #7 - and it's a win when the BPA when you pick plays your biggest long-term position of need.

Sato and Young are both quality players on solid contracts. I'd expect Lauri becomes the primary backup C option (with Kornet as a 4th big, who looks like a reasonable 4th big). Their backup PG options (White/Arci/Dunn) figure to also cover the backup SG minutes as well. Really the only rotation spot that's questionable is backup SF (Thad Young has really never been effective at SF so going with the big looks there isn't a good plan). They've either got Valentine out of position and quite meh or hoping Hutchenson is useful this year after doing little as a rookie.

Still, a solid and reasonably deep rotation that should at least get close to the playoffs. I'd expect around 37 wins and probably a bit short of a playoff spot - but it will be good to see just what their young guys can do in meaningful games all year long rather then on a no-hope 'still rebuilding' team. I don't trust the Bulls FO - they've been solidly below-average for a long time - but this was a good offseason and gets a solid B.

[ChettheJet]

Most national writers, or would be writers, or semi experts really never get a handle on the Bulls. They have shied away from the big flashy gambling moves because they've seen them fail here and plenty of other places. The fan base remembers the 6 championships, was excited when Derrick Rose came and they've put up with a lot of rebuilding. But they don't get so upset that they force management into big reactionary moves that usually backfire and set the team back for 4-5 years. If you look at the champions since the Bulls won there are probably 10 teams that didn't really get all that close more than once and 10 more that never got close, so the Bulls haven't been inept since Tim Floyd.

The whaler, well got off to a bad start calling the Bulls center Wendell Clark, they drafted Carter jr. And it's baby stuff to suggest they need new ownership, GM, coaches, players and even jokingly arena. 4th in the NBA worth $2.9B, they ain't the idiots in this article.

I think realGM missed on the depth chart

Porter Hutchison Valentine
Markkanen Young Porter Gafford
Carter jr Kornet Gafford Felicio
Lavine Valentine White Blankeney Harrison
Dunn White Satoransky Arcidiacono

Boylan said Dunn would start and that might only last the pre season but for all the geniuses who want to dump him for nothing or pay to get rid of him, he's going to get one more chance to see if he can play and if he can stay healthy. The same goes for Valentine, they aren't doing to declare him garbage because he actually played well when he was healthy and there's no point to dumping him after missing a full season for someone similar before you find out if he's healthy and can play. They have too many guards, they had too few last year, they had too few of everything last year with the injuries and shutting down.

This healthy roster gets at least to 500. They can't lose players for 40 -80 games like last year but on any given night Porter, Markkanen or Lavine could put up 35 points or more. Carter should become a defensive presence and develop an NBA offensive game, either Dunn or Satoransky is going to run the offense If Young and Valentine can keep the bench of White and Hutchison from getting out of control they won't be a liability.

Most of all they don't have any huge contracts that are going to saddle them with untradable players long term, they have their own draft picks and it's not crazy to believe their young players grow and reach their potential.

[TheProfessor]

C, Not a fan of White at all I think he has very high best potential. But I like Satoransky signing. The bigger problem is that they don't really have any direction. They have young players but big contracts and not alot of space. They are not good enough to be a playoff but not bad enough to get a top 3 pick. Very strange place to be.

[BullyKing]

C, Not a fan of White at all I think he has very high best potential. But I like Satoransky signing. The bigger problem is that they don't really have any direction. They have young players but big contracts and not alot of space. They are not good enough to be a playoff but not bad enough to get a top 3 pick. Very strange place to be.

Agree with this. The issue isn't so much any of the moves in isolation but where are we going? You can talk about the young players reaching their upside but what is that really? I don't see anyone with potential to be anything more than a quasi all star. Certainly no one with top-10 player in the league potential. They used their space on solid role players and this would offseason would have looked great for a contender. For a team in Chicago's position, it just seems like a rush to make a run at the 8th seed.

[SmartWentCrazy]

I feel like the Bulls are trying to be a poor man’s version of last years Clippers. They want to be competitive now while making Lavine, Lauri and WCJ look as good as possible in the process. I dont know if itll work, but I believe thats their MO.

I generally liked their offseason. Sato is a very solid vet. A Sato-Lavine-OPJ-Thad-Lauri team should compete and win 32-38 games in the east. They’re in a mega market and could be serious players in FA.

It is a long shot, though. And I wasnt the biggest fan of Coby White [he’s not a natural PG and I dont trust his shot; his tiny standing reach means he plays significantly smaller than his height].

I’d give them a C+ for a grade. They slightly improved their long term outlook for me this summer.

[Crives]

I really like Sato... and on a good deal too.

[Kurt Heimlich]

C, Not a fan of White at all I think he has very high best potential. But I like Satoransky signing. The bigger problem is that they don't really have any direction. They have young players but big contracts and not alot of space. They are not good enough to be a playoff but not bad enough to get a top 3 pick. Very strange place to be.

With the flattened lotto odds it's not a strange place to be anymore. The top 2 picks went to teams who won 33 games last year (13 more than the bulls won). And the 4th pick to a team who won 37 games.

In the east they are amongst the 5 or so potential competitors for the 7/8 seed. And if not then they're still in play for a top 4 pick. But at some point you have to see if your young talent is worth anything in the first place. Signing two positive impact vets around their young core pieces will help flesh that out.

[HartfordWhalers]

Oh crap. Autocorrect changed a guys last name and I didn’t catch it.

Change mine to an A-
With praise for Chicago’s coach, gm, and ownership. And yes 41 wins also.

[Chicago-Bull-E]

Oh crap. Autocorrect changed a guys last name and I didn’t catch it.

Change mine to an A-
With praise for Chicago’s coach, gm, and ownership. And yes 41 wins also.

You went from a D+ to an A-?

[Chicago-Bull-E]

Chicago FO claimed their big offseason deal was OPJ, and his trade at the deadline. With OPJ starting, the Bulls were 7-8. With no WCJ, and a lot of D league talent playing.

I don’t like Coby White, and think he is a 6th man spark plug. Leandro Barbosa is my comp for him. High price to get Barbosa at 7, but it is what it is.

The Bulls’ plan is 2021 free agency. It’s why their contracts handed out expire in 2 years (or partial guarantee), as well as Felicios deal expiring then as well. OPJ’s does too if he opts in after this offseason. So the Bulls are looking at freeing up roughly 50-60 million in 2021. So yeah, it’s a lot of dough.

But in order to attract free agents, the front office believes they need to start playing winning basketball. So bringing in Young and Sato make a ton of sense. With Lauris questionable health, you can assume Thad is starting 15-20 games, backing up Lauri, and helping at small forward. Sato can also help at small forward, which is the Bulls weakest position of depth.

They feel really good about 4 of the 5 starters. Lavine, OPJ, Lauri, WCJ. I think you have two allstars there. Not superstars, but I expect 2 of those guys to make an allstar team in the next 2 years.

Then you convince a superstar to come play with your two allstars in 2021, supplemented by White and the other two of the four mentioned above.

If healthy, this team can win 43 games (again, 7-8 with OPJ last year). If unhealthy, look for another top 5 pick, which isn’t the worst thing in the world as next year is stacked at point guard, the spot they need a star at the most.

The biggest question mark to me is the head coach. I don’t particularly care for him, but Lavine did back him up at the end of the year. So at least he’s won the battle of getting your star to like you.

Overall I give them a B+. Arci grew quite a bit as the season progressed and signing him was very smart. They lose points for not dumping Dunn, who I think has some diva in him and could become a distraction quickly, and drafting Coby. Sato and Young were very good, smart signings. The team has enough young guys right now, they don’t need to keep adding. They need to teach the young guys how to start winning.

[HartfordWhalers]

Oh crap. Autocorrect changed a guys last name and I didn’t catch it.

Change mine to an A-
With praise for Chicago’s coach, gm, and ownership. And yes 41 wins also.

You went from a D+ to an A-?

It said the wrong name once, among the multiple times it referred to him. It kind of means all the rest was wrong.

[pacers33granger]

This healthy roster gets at least to 500.

I think Chicago had a decent offseason, but I see no way this roster wins 41 games if fully healthy unless there's some major improvements from young guys or White comes out the gate really strong. PG is still a major question mark, yeah Sato should be an upgrade, but he's easily bottom 5 in the league if he's your starter and the bench is near non-existent.

It's not a bad thing as the team is still really young and there should be a lot of improvement, but this is still a lotto team that now just finally has some strong vet presences.

[Mamba4Goat]

Oh crap. Autocorrect changed a guys last name and I didn’t catch it.

Change mine to an A-
With praise for Chicago’s coach, gm, and ownership. And yes 41 wins also.

You're the worst.

[pacers33granger]

As for Chicago's offseason overall, White seems like a gamble, but I like the potential upside there and Chicago has had real good luck in that range of the draft recently.

I don't really like the Sato signing. I don't think he moves the needle much, doesn't fit the timeline, and blocks their new draft pick.

I like the Thad signing for his vet presence. He'll be awesome there. I'm not sure on the fit again given that he plays the same position as some of their young guys and doesn't fit great with either.

It's minimal overall, but I think they overpaid both Korent and Arcidiacano. Both are fine when you have them on minimum deals, but there's really no need to pay that kind of money to 9-10th men when you're nowhere near competing for anything.

[Mamba4Goat]

For those saying 40 wins, i can't see this team being improved enough to compete with Miami, Indy, Milwaukee, Toronto, Philly, Boston, Orlando, or Brooklyn. Then there's the fact that they're in the save division as Indy, Detroit, and Milwaukee. If they have perfect health and the team fits perfectly right out the gate and others team are decently unlucky then maybe they're a .500 team. However, I think 30 wins is a decently okay and realistic expectation.

[HartfordWhalers]

For those saying 40 wins, i can't see this team being improved enough to compete with Miami, Indy, Milwaukee, Toronto, Philly, Boston, Orlando, or Brooklyn. Then there's the fact that they're in the save division as Indy, Detroit, and Milwaukee. If they have perfect health and the team fits perfectly right out the gate and others team are decently unlucky then maybe they're a .500 team. However, I think 30 wins is a decently okay and realistic expectation.

Per https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/nba-win-totals-betting-odds-2019-2020
4 current lines for the Bulls win totals are:
33.5
32.5
31.5
30.5

538 is more bullish https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-predictions/ and has them at
37 wins

[Trader_Joe]

I like Sato and thought the deal was fine, but I didn't get the need/fit. I also didn't get the Thad signing or more specifically why Thad would sign in Chicago, unless they were paying more than anyone. He doesn't fit their timeline or their front court with Otto and Lauri arguably best at PF. But both are solid players on decent deals, so assuming they use them for mentor-ship and then flip them, I'm okay with the signings. If they are to go for 40 wins and the PO's, then I don't like them.

[dakomish23]

Did not see those grades coming.

Young was solid. Sato was solid. White was solid.

They need another 2/3 hybrid but I thought it was better than a C or D

[Stillwater]

I'd say B-
I like the draft picks fit on the roster going forward but it was a good not great off season for them overall . they still have needs left unmet and probably need 1 more yr in the lottery