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Kelly Oubre for Aaron Gordon straight up

Can’t be completed until December.

Both teams would hate to move their player... but this deal feels like it makes a lot of sense in terms of balancing out the rosters.

Suns could start Mikal at the 3 and move Saric to a playmaking role off the bench. Would open up minutes for Cam at the backup 3

Magic can maintain a more balanced longboi lineup with Isaac at the 4 and Kelly at the three.


Personally I would hate moving Kelly but on paper this makes a lot of sense.

Curious to hear opinions on Kelly vs AG value.

I personally have Aaron Gordon at substantially more value than Kelly Oubre, and I am generally someone who feels people overstate Aaron Gordon's current value.

Domejandro wrote:I personally have Aaron Gordon at substantially more value than Kelly Oubre, and I am generally someone who feels people overstate Aaron Gordon's current value.

Yep

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Oubre trade value was established as the corpse of Ariza. I just don't see how you you go from that to asking for Gordon. Oubre played well for the Suns down the stretch but his game has a ways to go to warrant this type of value.

You could do Oubre+Unprotected 1st for Gordon, but that's about the only way Orlando says yes.

The non-committal nature of Oubre's new deal is a dead giveaway that there's a value discrepancy here if you ask me.

At a minimum I'd expect the Suns to have to part with a protected first or pick swap to make up the difference.

I am also not quite sure what would compel the Magic to make that move in the first place.

Isaac and Gordon are a pretty good fit to share the floor together with both being versatile enough to switch the SF/PF spot, and unless I am totally out of the loop, hasn't Gordon's effectiveness at SF been a pleasant surprise for the Magic?

Gordon's coming of a great individual post season, there's very little reason for the Magic to give up on him now in favor of Oubre on a short term deal that has way more questions about his game.

Besides the value gap I see between the two I think if the Magic trade Gordon it's not going to be for a forward. I think they'd be looking for someone that can be a long-term answer as starter at one of the guard positions. Maybe Oubre could play a little shooting guard but he's clearly more of a small forward.

agree with whats been said above. Also, before someone mentions without looking, this isnt even trading for youth, because Gordon is only 3 months older than Oubre.

Well, Orlando can certainly afford to trade Gordon and Oubre might be what they are looking for. The problem is, IMO, that Oubre hasn't proven himself to be at the same level of consistency that Gordon has proven himself to be. Look at it this way; starting forwards of Isaac + Gordon -or- Isaac + Oubre. No way Orlando makes this trade without at least a decent 1st.

NuggetsWY wrote:Well, Orlando can certainly afford to trade Gordon and Oubre might be what they are looking for. The problem is, IMO, that Oubre hasn't proven himself to be at the same level of consistency that Gordon has proven himself to be. Look at it this way; starting forwards of Isaac + Gordon -or- Isaac + Oubre. No way Orlando makes this trade without at least a decent 1st.

Agreed... but this trade would have to go down in December... and if Oubre extends his improved play into December I don’t think the value would be to far off.

Crives wrote:

NuggetsWY wrote:Well, Orlando can certainly afford to trade Gordon and Oubre might be what they are looking for. The problem is, IMO, that Oubre hasn't proven himself to be at the same level of consistency that Gordon has proven himself to be. Look at it this way; starting forwards of Isaac + Gordon -or- Isaac + Oubre. No way Orlando makes this trade without at least a decent 1st.

Agreed... but this trade would have to go down in December... and if Oubre extends his improved play into December I don’t think the value would be to far off.

And if Gordon improves his play, the trade would be even more lopsided. Even though the trade can let be completed until December it’s not reasonable to say one player gets better and the other doesn’t when they are the same age.

ThunderBolt wrote:

Crives wrote:

NuggetsWY wrote:Well, Orlando can certainly afford to trade Gordon and Oubre might be what they are looking for. The problem is, IMO, that Oubre hasn't proven himself to be at the same level of consistency that Gordon has proven himself to be. Look at it this way; starting forwards of Isaac + Gordon -or- Isaac + Oubre. No way Orlando makes this trade without at least a decent 1st.

Agreed... but this trade would have to go down in December... and if Oubre extends his improved play into December I don’t think the value would be to far off.

And if Gordon improves his play, the trade would be more lopsided. Even though the trade can let be completed until December it’s not reasonable to say one player gets better and the other doesn’t when they are the same age.

But I’m not assuming Oubre gets better... just that he increases his sample size of strong play through Dec. it’s the same reason suns didn’t give Oubre a long term deal... sample size.

Crives wrote:

ThunderBolt wrote:

Crives wrote:
Agreed... but this trade would have to go down in December... and if Oubre extends his improved play into December I don’t think the value would be to far off.

And if Gordon improves his play, the trade would be more lopsided. Even though the trade can let be completed until December it’s not reasonable to say one player gets better and the other doesn’t when they are the same age.

But I’m not assuming Oubre gets better... just that he increases his sample size of strong play through Dec. it’s the same reason suns didn’t give Oubre a long term deal... sample size.

Fair enough. Even if that happens, I think most of us still think Phoenix would need to add to this deal if Orlando had interest in Oubre.

Post all star break per 36m

Kelly/AG
Pts - 22.1 / 17.1
FG% - 46.9% / 45.8%
Assists- 1.7 / 4.3
Steals- 2.3 / 0.7
Blocks- 1.0 / 0.7

I am sure AG has better advanced stats being on the superior team

Crives wrote:Post all star break per 36m

Kelly/AG
Pts - 22.1 / 17.1
FG% - 46.9% / 45.8%
Assists- 1.7 / 4.3
Steals- 2.3 / 0.7
Blocks- 1.0 / 0.7

I am sure AG has better advanced stats being on the superior team

AG is also an elite multi-positional defender and was effective in the point forward role at times last season. I don't think Oubre will come close to AGs value during any time in their careers (I anticipate AG to continue improving).

I still think the position issue is almost as big in this scenario as the value. All indication are that our front office really likes the Isaac/Gordon forward combo especially on the defensive side of the ball, even if the number of players we have that could play one forward spot are the other makes it so we can afford to trade one of them. Given that I can't really see us trading Gordon unless it's for a significant upgrade in our weak backcourt and I see Oubre as better at Small Forward.

Oubre really does have the talent to be worth as much as Gordon. It's a question of - whether he's going to play with head screwed on on a consistent basis. If Orlando is convinced that Isaac is best playing Gordon's position, then the trade makes some sense. But Phoenix probably would have to throw something more in.

psman2 wrote:Oubre trade value was established as the corpse of Ariza. I just don't see how you you go from that to asking for Gordon. Oubre played well for the Suns down the stretch but his game has a ways to go to warrant this type of value.

It's called the Ernie Grunfeld Effect. Notice Grunfeld no longer has a job.

Crives wrote:Post all star break per 36m

Kelly/AG
Pts - 22.1 / 17.1
FG% - 46.9% / 45.8%
Assists- 1.7 / 4.3
Steals- 2.3 / 0.7
Blocks- 1.0 / 0.7

I am sure AG has better advanced stats being on the superior team

That’s...Thats not how advanced stats work.

Post allstar break PER 36 numbers. I’m struggling to think of a worse way to evaluate value, and I’m struggling to find it.

PER 36 numbers in general are a joke in terms of assessing value. Then to try and fine tune them to a specific time frame that fits a narrative. No bueno sir/madam.

Chicago-Bull-E wrote:

Crives wrote:Post all star break per 36m

Kelly/AG
Pts - 22.1 / 17.1
FG% - 46.9% / 45.8%
Assists- 1.7 / 4.3
Steals- 2.3 / 0.7
Blocks- 1.0 / 0.7

I am sure AG has better advanced stats being on the superior team

That’s...Thats not how advanced stats work.

Post allstar break PER 36 numbers. I’m struggling to think of a worse way to evaluate value, and I’m struggling to find it.

PER 36 numbers in general are a joke in terms of assessing value. Then to try and fine tune them to a specific time frame that fits a narrative. No bueno sir/madam.

I used post all star break as it gave Oubre a few games to get adjusted to his new team... I also understand AG went on a tear the 2nd half of the season... not sure the issue.

I used per 36 as AG played a few more minutes then Oubre.