San Antonio rebuild (w/Atlanta, Detroit, Portland)

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Re: San Antonio rebuild (w/Atlanta, Detroit, Portland) 

Post#21 » by pacers33granger » Mon Aug 19, 2019 2:35 pm

Derozan and Aldridge trades are super tough for the reasons identified by Spurs fans here. There's value in getting to the playoffs, even if you flame out in the first round (experience, playoff money, etc.). So a late first or two just isn't worth it really unless either guy asks out. On the other end, it seems highly unlikely teams would offer more than that.
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Re: San Antonio rebuild (w/Atlanta, Detroit, Portland) 

Post#22 » by BlazersBroncos » Mon Aug 19, 2019 7:28 pm

I would offer more from PDX for LMA, likely either another protected FRP or Little. Even then, Pops isn't blowing this team up unless the vets make moves to ask for a trade. LMA has spoken to Damian about returning, so if he quietly asks for a deal back to PDX because SAS isn't competing, then maybe they could swing Whiteside+Little+2020 FRP for LMA. Even then, I don't bet on a Pops team tanking, or even playing itself out of the playoffs, or Greg listening to LMA and trading him to his desired destination. So its all just quite unlikely.
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Re: San Antonio rebuild (w/Atlanta, Detroit, Portland) 

Post#23 » by Resistance » Mon Aug 19, 2019 8:02 pm

Chinook wrote:

First, there are ways to get off to a slow start that have nothing to do with guys aging. If DeRozan twists and ankle and misses a month, there's no reason to expect that to be the start of a decline. The West is supposed to be a blood bath this year, so a missed month for the second-best player on the team could be enough to have the Spurs (or literally any other team in the conference) in 10th at the ASB. Two years ago, you had the Spurs drop from third in the West to seventh because Aldridge missed a couple of gimme games, and you had the Wolves rise to third before ended up eight because Butler got hurt. Short-term issues like that can hinder the season without it being some definitive sign that you're just going to get worse from here.



Resistance wrote:

From the OP

Scenario: the Spurs get off to a slow start and decide near the trade deadline to tear it down and get rebuilding pieces. I don't think this is super likely, but definitely within the realm of possibility.


There is no mention of extensive injury problems holding the Spurs back this season unlike last season with Murray.


I have already made a preemptive strike on the injury angle and you still want to insert it into the conversation.
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Re: San Antonio rebuild (w/Atlanta, Detroit, Portland) 

Post#24 » by Resistance » Mon Aug 19, 2019 8:09 pm

pacers33granger wrote:Derozan and Aldridge trades are super tough for the reasons identified by Spurs fans here. There's value in getting to the playoffs, even if you flame out in the first round (experience, playoff money, etc.). So a late first or two just isn't worth it really unless either guy asks out. On the other end, it seems highly unlikely teams would offer more than that.


NY, Philadelphia, Boston, Toronto, Brooklyn

NY
* In a rebuild and appears very reluctant to send out assets.

Philadelphia
* Has Embiid & Horford, no need for Aldridge.
* DDR would overlap with Richardson & Harris.

Boston
* In something of a makeover and appears very reluctant to send out assets.
* Adding Aldridge or DDR would push them back to an issue of last season which was priority/status
on offense.

Toronto
* Appears to be going on a final round with the veterans and then transition to a youth movement.
* I am expecting them to be conservative in trading draft picks and especially reluctant to trade them for older veterans such as those in San Antonio

Brooklyn
* Has already chosen a path with Durant and Irving.



Cleveland, Chicago, Indiana, Milwukee, Detroit

Cleveland
* Is in a rebuild, so the expectation is they will go slow on sending out draft picks.
* LMA would overlap with Love.
* Has some guards that need experience. DDR eating minutes and putting up shots wouldn't be a help with that.

Chicago
* Has Markhanen and Carter needing developmental minutes at PF and Center. No need for LMA
* Has Porter & LaVine for SF and SG, thus no need for DDR.

Indiana
* They seem to have good chemistry, so they need to be cautious with roster tinkering.
* Victor Oladipo and DDR doesn't seem like a good fit.

Milwaukee
* They have chosen a path with Gianis, Middleton, Lopez, Hill and Bledsoe

Detroit
* Already being discussed



Charlotte, Atlanta, Miami, Orlando, Washington

Charlotte
* Is in a rebuild (or should be in one).

Atlanta
* Already being discussed.

Miami
* Not the place to look for future draft picks.

Orlando
* Has Vucevic, so no need for LMA.
* It appears they are going to have patience with Fournier and wait it out rather than try to dump him.
The San Antonio partisans would want value for DDR and then more value to eat the Fournier contract.
I don't have Orlando as being willing to send out that much compensation.

Washington
* Is in a rebuild (or should be in one).



Portland, Denver, Minnesota, OKC, Utah

Portland
* Already being discussed

Denver
* Has Jokic, so no need for LMA.
* DDR doesn't provide spacing
* Already at the luxury tax line, so I don't have them interested in making any major moves.

Minnesota
* New FO team is transitioning to a younger roster.
* Has Towns, so not seeing a need for LMA
* DDR and Wiggins together would hurt spacing.

OKC
* Appears they are transitioning to a rebuild.
* Adams, LMA and Gallo seems like an old school front court rather than a modern one.

Utah
* They have chosen a path
* they already owe a first for Conley


Clippers, Sacramento, Golden State, Phoenix, Lakers

Clippers
* Have chosen a path with Paul George and Leonard
* Already owe future picks

Sacramento
* I don't see a need for LMA with Bagley, Giles and Dedmon on the roster.
* I don't see a need for DDR with Hield and Bogdanovic on the roster
* They appear to be more of a youth oriented team with veterans filling in as needed rather than a veteran team
with youth filling in as needed.

Golden State
* Need some youth, a respectable SF and three point shooting. LMA and DDR fill none of those needs while Carroll
and Gay are a bit on the old side.

Phoenix
* Somewhat like Sacramento with veterans filling in around youth rather than youth filling in around veterans.
* Has Ayton, so no need for LMA. Has Booker, so no need for DDR.

Lakers
* Already sent out future draft picks in the trade for Davis.
* Has Lebron, Davis and Kuzma to eat minutes at PF and Center.
* They could use a 3 & wing, but that isn't DDR.
* Having DDR and McGee on the court together would crowd LeBon's driving lanes.


Houston, Dallas, New Orleans, Memphis, San Antonio

Houston
* Has Harden, so no need for DDR.
* They are usually able to generate enough offense, but could use some more 3 & D wing talent. Neither LMA or DDR will fill that need.

Dallas
* Already sent out draft picks for Porzingis
* Porzingis and Doncic are young, so Dallas has no need to bring in expensive veterans and try to win now.
* They could use 3 & D wing talent, but neither LMA or DDR are able to fill that talent.
* Some similarity to the Orlando (Fournier) situation with the San Antonio partisans wanting compensation for DDR and then additional compensation to eat the Hardaway contract.

New orleans
* New FO has set a course. They have no need to get in a hurry.

Memphis
* In something of a rebuild and have been trading away older expensive veterans rather than bringing them in.

San Antonio -
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Re: San Antonio rebuild (w/Atlanta, Detroit, Portland) 

Post#25 » by Chinook » Mon Aug 19, 2019 10:05 pm

Resistance wrote:I have already made a preemptive strike on the injury angle and you still want to insert it into the conversation.


No, you just made a terrible attempt to hand-wave other explanations. You (not the OP, but you) had the conclusion that the Spurs players must be playing poorly for them to start slow. That's not a valid assumption, and saying "Well, it's not a not-right assumption" doesn't change that. Moreover, I already addressed why your stance on their value was wrong regardless, so "preemptive strike" or no, your point doesn't really hold weight.
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Re: San Antonio rebuild (w/Atlanta, Detroit, Portland) 

Post#26 » by Resistance » Mon Aug 19, 2019 10:14 pm

Chinook wrote:
Resistance wrote:I have already made a preemptive strike on the injury angle and you still want to insert it into the conversation.


No, you just made a terrible attempt to hand-wave other explanations. You (not the OP, but you) had the conclusion that the Spurs players must be playing poorly for them to start slow. That's not a valid assumption, and saying "Well, it's not a not-right assumption" doesn't change that. Moreover, I already addressed why your stance on their value was wrong regardless, so "preemptive strike" or no, your point doesn't really hold weight.



Since the OP didn't specify injury issues as a cause for a slow start, I excluded that as a reason and pointed that out even before you inserted it into the conversation.

You want it included as a cause even though it wasn't specified by the OP.
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Re: San Antonio rebuild (w/Atlanta, Detroit, Portland) 

Post#27 » by Chinook » Mon Aug 19, 2019 10:17 pm

Resistance wrote:Since the OP didn't specify injury issues as a cause for a slow start, I excluded that as a reason and pointed that out even before you inserted it into the conversation.

You want it included as a cause even though it wasn't specified by the OP.


You don't get to exclude it. You aren't the OP. It's not your scenario. No specific reason is in the scenario. You decided to make up your own and are trying to make other people follow it. That doesn't make sense. Regardless, I already addressed your argument in your own scenario. It's not valid, even if you don't accept injury as a possible reason.
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Re: San Antonio rebuild (w/Atlanta, Detroit, Portland) 

Post#28 » by Resistance » Mon Aug 19, 2019 10:23 pm

Chinook wrote:
Resistance wrote:Since the OP didn't specify injury issues as a cause for a slow start, I excluded that as a reason and pointed that out even before you inserted it into the conversation.

You want it included as a cause even though it wasn't specified by the OP.


You don't get to exclude it. You aren't the OP. It's not your scenario. No specific reason is in the scenario. You decided to make up your own and are trying to make other people follow it. That doesn't make sense. Regardless, I already addressed your argument in your own scenario. It's not valid, even if you don't accept injury as a possible reason.



If people want a civil conversation with me, then the injury stuff is excluded because that is one of the key points of my position.

Since you want to include it and and say that I am wrong for not including it, then we are stuck in an endless loop.
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Re: San Antonio rebuild (w/Atlanta, Detroit, Portland) 

Post#29 » by 21 TD » Tue Aug 20, 2019 12:26 am

I realize it's a hypothetical, but the Spurs have continuity, depth and a backloaded schedule, making it more likely than not that they don't get off to a poor start.

A year from now, if Aldridge tells them he plans to sign with the Trail Blazers the following year anyway, I could see him for Nurkic + something minor, provided their medical staff is confident in him returning at least close to form.

If/when they trade Aldridge/DeRozan, they'll probably prioritize young veterans over picks because they've already accumulated depth of youth and have shown no appetite for a traditional re-build.
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Re: San Antonio rebuild (w/Atlanta, Detroit, Portland) 

Post#30 » by Myth » Tue Aug 20, 2019 2:29 am

21 TD wrote:I realize it's a hypothetical, but the Spurs have continuity, depth and a backloaded schedule, making it more likely than not that they don't get off to a poor start.

A year from now, if Aldridge tells them he plans to sign with the Trail Blazers the following year anyway, I could see him for Nurkic + something minor, provided their medical staff is confident in him returning at least close to form.

If/when they trade Aldridge/DeRozan, they'll probably prioritize young veterans over picks because they've already accumulated depth of youth and have shown no appetite for a traditional re-build.

If Nurkic really does return to form, Blazers wouldn't trade him straight up for Aldridge.
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Re: San Antonio rebuild (w/Atlanta, Detroit, Portland) 

Post#31 » by tmorgan » Tue Aug 20, 2019 5:19 am

Myth wrote:
21 TD wrote:I realize it's a hypothetical, but the Spurs have continuity, depth and a backloaded schedule, making it more likely than not that they don't get off to a poor start.

A year from now, if Aldridge tells them he plans to sign with the Trail Blazers the following year anyway, I could see him for Nurkic + something minor, provided their medical staff is confident in him returning at least close to form.

If/when they trade Aldridge/DeRozan, they'll probably prioritize young veterans over picks because they've already accumulated depth of youth and have shown no appetite for a traditional re-build.

If Nurkic really does return to form, Blazers wouldn't trade him straight up for Aldridge.


Yeah, I was gonna say... whaaaat? Aldridge is good at what does does, and should provide good middies and post while denying the post as well, but Nurk brings a lot more than that on defense. And he isn't a ridiculous curmudgeon you have to cater to. Nurk > LMA.
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Re: San Antonio rebuild (w/Atlanta, Detroit, Portland) 

Post#32 » by 21 TD » Tue Aug 20, 2019 10:23 pm

Value isn't created in a vacuum. Consider the factors involved . . .

- Aldridge wants to return and Lillard supposedly wants him to
- Aldridge is the exact archetype that ages best, but at 35 in a year, how much longer can he maintain star status?
- They've been a good team, but not a contender, for years and Lillard and McCollum will be 30 and 29 in a year
- They haven't been able to attract another star
- The league is more wide open than it's been in a long time

Nurkic emerged as an elite role player last season, but even if he regains form, that's all he's ever going to be. They'd still maintain Collins, Simons, Little and all 1sts. It checks too many boxes.
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Re: San Antonio rebuild (w/Atlanta, Detroit, Portland) 

Post#33 » by Myth » Tue Aug 20, 2019 10:51 pm

21 TD wrote:Value isn't created in a vacuum. Consider the factors involved . . .

- Aldridge wants to return and Lillard supposedly wants him to
- Aldridge is the exact archetype that ages best, but at 35 in a year, how much longer can he maintain star status?
- They've been a good team, but not a contender, for years and Lillard and McCollum will be 30 and 29 in a year
- They haven't been able to attract another star
- The league is more wide open than it's been in a long time

Nurkic emerged as an elite role player last season, but even if he regains form, that's all he's ever going to be. They'd still maintain Collins, Simons, Little and all 1sts. It checks too many boxes.

I'm sorry, but it is still an easy no for Portland, and that is Nurkic for Aldridge straight up. It is an extra strong no when in your scenario Aldridge is already stating that he plans on signing with Portland in the off-summer, so why would Portland give up Nurkic PLUS something else?

If Blazers went after Aldridge, it would be to put him next to Nurkic. If we are sending out Nurkic in a trade with the Spurs for Aldridge, it is because Nurkic isn't expected to return to form or because Spurs added incentive.
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Re: San Antonio rebuild (w/Atlanta, Detroit, Portland) 

Post#34 » by DeBlazerRiddem » Tue Aug 20, 2019 11:00 pm

21 TD wrote:Value isn't created in a vacuum. Consider the factors involved . . .

- Aldridge wants to return and Lillard supposedly wants him to
- Aldridge is the exact archetype that ages best, but at 35 in a year, how much longer can he maintain star status?
- They've been a good team, but not a contender, for years and Lillard and McCollum will be 30 and 29 in a year
- They haven't been able to attract another star
- The league is more wide open than it's been in a long time

Nurkic emerged as an elite role player last season, but even if he regains form, that's all he's ever going to be. They'd still maintain Collins, Simons, Little and all 1sts. It checks too many boxes.


I am sorry but there is no way Portland trades Nurkic straight up for Aldridge, let alone adds any value.

1. Aldridge is 33 and Nurkic is 25. Eight years is a huge difference.
2. Aldridge makes 26 million, Nurkic makes 13. 13 million is a huge difference.
3. Nurkic is the type of center we wanted to pair with Aldridge while he was here, not replace him
4. Advanced impact stats pretty much favor Nurkic last year across the board.

As someone who is quite familiar with both players, Nurkic has way more trade value than Aldridge.
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Re: San Antonio rebuild (w/Atlanta, Detroit, Portland) 

Post#35 » by 21 TD » Wed Aug 21, 2019 12:05 am

Myth wrote:
21 TD wrote:Value isn't created in a vacuum. Consider the factors involved . . .

- Aldridge wants to return and Lillard supposedly wants him to
- Aldridge is the exact archetype that ages best, but at 35 in a year, how much longer can he maintain star status?
- They've been a good team, but not a contender, for years and Lillard and McCollum will be 30 and 29 in a year
- They haven't been able to attract another star
- The league is more wide open than it's been in a long time

Nurkic emerged as an elite role player last season, but even if he regains form, that's all he's ever going to be. They'd still maintain Collins, Simons, Little and all 1sts. It checks too many boxes.


I'm sorry, but it is still an easy no for Portland, and that is Nurkic for Aldridge straight up. It is an extra strong no when in your scenario Aldridge is already stating that he plans on signing with Portland in the off-summer, so why would Portland give up Nurkic PLUS something else?

If Blazers went after Aldridge, it would be to put him next to Nurkic. If we are sending out Nurkic in a trade with the Spurs for Aldridge, it is because Nurkic isn't expected to return to form or because Spurs added incentive.


Like I said, wait another year and at his age, maybe he's no longer a star at that point. He could also change his mind, as he's been known to do. It's also another season where Lillard or McCollum could suffer a career altering injury.

Aldridge has mostly been a center for a few years already.


DeBlazerRiddem wrote:
21 TD wrote:Value isn't created in a vacuum. Consider the factors involved . . .

- Aldridge wants to return and Lillard supposedly wants him to
- Aldridge is the exact archetype that ages best, but at 35 in a year, how much longer can he maintain star status?
- They've been a good team, but not a contender, for years and Lillard and McCollum will be 30 and 29 in a year
- They haven't been able to attract another star
- The league is more wide open than it's been in a long time

Nurkic emerged as an elite role player last season, but even if he regains form, that's all he's ever going to be. They'd still maintain Collins, Simons, Little and all 1sts. It checks too many boxes.


I am sorry but there is no way Portland trades Nurkic straight up for Aldridge, let alone adds any value.

1. Aldridge is 33 and Nurkic is 25. Eight years is a huge difference.
2. Aldridge makes 26 million, Nurkic makes 13. 13 million is a huge difference.
3. Nurkic is the type of center we wanted to pair with Aldridge while he was here, not replace him
4. Advanced impact stats pretty much favor Nurkic last year across the board.

As someone who is quite familiar with both players, Nurkic has way more trade value than Aldridge.


I think you're both making the common mistake of saying what you would do . . .

1. Answered that.
2. They'll have the space next season.
3. Answered that.
4. They do, but he's still a role player. I don't think they'd win a championship with this trade, but it's like the off season the Jazz just had: the best they can do.
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Re: San Antonio rebuild (w/Atlanta, Detroit, Portland) 

Post#36 » by DeBlazerRiddem » Wed Aug 21, 2019 12:42 am

21 TD wrote:
I am sorry but there is no way Portland trades Nurkic straight up for Aldridge, let alone adds any value.

1. Aldridge is 33 and Nurkic is 25. Eight years is a huge difference.
2. Aldridge makes 26 million, Nurkic makes 13. 13 million is a huge difference.
3. Nurkic is the type of center we wanted to pair with Aldridge while he was here, not replace him
4. Advanced impact stats pretty much favor Nurkic last year across the board.

As someone who is quite familiar with both players, Nurkic has way more trade value than Aldridge.


I think you're both making the common mistake of saying what you would do . . .

1. Answered that.
2. They'll have the space next season.
3. Answered that.
4. They do, but he's still a role player. I don't think they'd win a championship with this trade, but it's like the off season the Jazz just had: the best they can do.


Doesn't matter if you answered that, 8 years and 13 million is a huge factor in trade value you cannot hand-waive away. It isn't just what I would do, I would wager the majority of the board agrees Nurkic has more value than Aldridge.

Nurkic was also our second best regular season player last year. Its one of those things that Blazer fans all pretty much agree but for some reason the rest of the league does not believe us. You underrate him to think he is and will always just be a role player.

To cap it off, and this is less about trade value than it is fit and direction: Aldridge spurned us dude. Straight up said he wanted to resign here and left us. It wasn't on great terms.

(edited to remove a distracting analogy)
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Re: San Antonio rebuild (w/Atlanta, Detroit, Portland) 

Post#37 » by expatbayern » Wed Aug 21, 2019 1:31 am

DeBlazerRiddem wrote:Nurkic was also our second best regular season player last year. Its one of those things that Blazer fans all pretty much agree but for some reason the rest of the league does not believe us. You underrate him to think he is and will always just be a role player.

100x this, but the really frustrating thing is that no one outside of Portland appears to have watched any of Nurkic's play last season or looked at any advanced stats, since either one makes clear Nurkic is closer to an all-star than a role player.
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Re: San Antonio rebuild (w/Atlanta, Detroit, Portland) 

Post#38 » by Myth » Wed Aug 21, 2019 12:32 pm

21 TD wrote:
Like I said, wait another year and at his age, maybe he's no longer a star at that point. He could also change his mind, as he's been known to do.

You do realize that these are not selling points that make Portland want him more than Nurkic, right?
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Re: San Antonio rebuild (w/Atlanta, Detroit, Portland) 

Post#39 » by JRoy » Wed Aug 21, 2019 2:17 pm

21 TD wrote:I realize it's a hypothetical, but the Spurs have continuity, depth and a backloaded schedule, making it more likely than not that they don't get off to a poor start.

A year from now, if Aldridge tells them he plans to sign with the Trail Blazers the following year anyway, I could see him for Nurkic + something minor, provided their medical staff is confident in him returning at least close to form.

If/when they trade Aldridge/DeRozan, they'll probably prioritize young veterans over picks because they've already accumulated depth of youth and have shown no appetite for a traditional re-build.


Nurkic is more valuable than Aldridge to Portland (and probably just about everyone else).

Nurkic is a great value with some upside remaining, the only issue is injury potential.
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Re: San Antonio rebuild (w/Atlanta, Detroit, Portland) 

Post#40 » by 21 TD » Wed Aug 21, 2019 10:42 pm

DeBlazerRiddem wrote:Doesn't matter if you answered that, 8 years and 13 million is a huge factor in trade value you cannot hand-waive away. It isn't just what I would do, I would wager the majority of the board agrees Nurkic has more value than Aldridge.

Nurkic was also our second best regular season player last year. Its one of those things that Blazer fans all pretty much agree but for some reason the rest of the league does not believe us. You underrate him to think he is and will always just be a role player.

To cap it off, and this is less about trade value than it is fit and direction: Aldridge spurned us dude. Straight up said he wanted to resign here and left us. It wasn't on great terms.


So is an already lumbering center, who doesn't space the floor and has limited ability to create his own shot, breaking his leg.

I know he was their 2nd best player last season, but he might never be the same player again and even if he is, how much value does a role playing (that's not a derogatory term; Gobert and Green are top 20 players, but they're still something like super role players) center have in the playoffs in this era? Maybe it'll change, but in recent memory the answer has generally been: not much.

This is a unique situation where I think the organization would let bygones be bygones.


Myth wrote:You do realize that these are not selling points that make Portland want him more than Nurkic, right?


They are because the thinking would be the window is open now but it'll be a brief one. In a volatile league that's the most difficult to win a championship in, if you think you've got even in a minor chance, you've got to pounce.

Collins is also the better fit next to Aldridge, because he can defend PF's and is a developing spacer.


JRoy wrote:Nurkic is more valuable than Aldridge to Portland (and probably just about everyone else).

Nurkic is a great value with some upside remaining, the only issue is injury potential.


I'm confident they'd do this. They're a stagnant, limited upside team with a top 15 player in his prime. This would increase the short term ceiling while mostly retaining their future.

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