BOS - MIA - OKC - WAS

[Andrew McCeltic]

The premise for this deal is that Gordon Hayward is all the way back, and that it's going to be obvious as soon as his first preseason game.

Miami ditches Waiters and Leonard to upgrade from Winslow to Hayward, a star wing to play next to Butler, and one they tried to sign two years ago.

Oklahoma City turns Adams' money into two expirings and a young wing prospect.

Washington deals Beal, jettisons Mahinmi, gets a perfect starting center in Adams to hold down a rebuilding team, and a wing they covet in Brown. The backcourt becomes a weakness, but Jaylen/Rui/Adams is a front court they can grow over the next several years.

Boston turns Brown/Hayward into Beal/Winslow - they cash in on Jaylen now, absorb the risk of Beal walking, and get a cost-controlled roleplaying wing.

Gordon Hayward to MIA
Justise Winslow and Bradley Beal to BOS
Mahinmi, Meyers Leonard, Troy Brown to OKC
Jaylen Brown, Steven Adams, Dion Waiters to WAS

It works for Boston, I think, on top of Jaylen Brown, getting Adams as a salary dump would be a win for Washington. OKC and Miami could plausibly ask for more value coming back - probably from Boston. The Celtics have a MIL 1st they could flip to OKC if necessary, but the deal squeezes their desire to move salary. And it depends on Miami, not able to get Beal (the Brown/Adams package is better, and we could find a different team to take Hayward for a mix of contracts), being willing to move Winslow to get the Best Star Available. The only other options right now look like Chris Paul, Kevin Love, maybe Kyle Lowry, Wiggins, Gallo, Lamarcus Aldridge..

[SmokeyPaw]

I have Beal > Haywood and Winslow >>>Brown. Too much excess value for Boston here.

[SmokeyPaw]

Very bad return on Beal for wash. Two contracts they dont want or need and j brown who is about to be overpaid. And they send out Troy Brown too? If Wash were to move Beal it would be for much better rebuilding assets.

[Andrew McCeltic]

I'd put Beal over Hayward, too, but he's a flight risk. Winslow is turning into a great all-around role-player, but Jaylen is still considered someone with star upside - the word over the summer was that his trade value was comparable to Tatum's.

Also, what do you think "better rebuilding assets" would be in return for Beal? I don't think the AD and Paul George trades have set a market for star players - those two are top 5 in the league, both play defense at an elite level, and they were dealt in extraordinary circumstances.

[Resistance]

.........................2019-20..............2020-21..........2021-22..........
Bradley Beal........$27,093,019..........$28,751,775..........................
Ian Mahinmi........$15,450,051..................................................
Troy Brown...........$3,219,480...........$3,372,840......$5,170,564 (RO)
______________________________________________________________
.......................$45,762,550..........$32,124,615.........................

.........................2019-20..............2020-21..........2021-22..........
Steven Adams.......$25,842,697.......$27,528,088............................
Dion Waiters.........$12,100,000.......$12,650,000............................
Jaylen Brown...........$6,534,829.................................................
_______________________________________________________________
........................$44,477,526.......$40,178,088............................

Washington has an extra $8 million in salary next season in a scenario with Brown leaving for another team.
Both Adams and Waiters are overpaid for what they do in the current NBA.



.........................2019-20..............2020-21..........2021-22..........2022-23.........2023-24.....
Steven Adams.......$25,842,697.......$27,528,088.............................................................
Dion Waiters.........$12,100,000.......$12,650,000............................................................
Jaylen Brown..........$6,534,829........$18,000,000.......$18,000,000....$18,000,000.....$18,000,000
______________________________________________________________________________________
........................$44,477,526........$58,178,088.......$18,000,000....$18,000,000.....$18,000,000


In a scenario with Brown signed for four years at $18 million @ year, Washington would have $26 million more in salary if they did the trade. In both instances, Washington loses Troy Brown who is cost controlled for multiple years along with Adams and Waiters being overpaid.


Washington refuses to do the trade rather quickly.

[Andrew McCeltic]

Ok, but it's not just about salary, it's about value. Adams is a little overpaid, but it's not a long-term commitment - he's also someone you could flip for value, or sign to a more favorable next contract. Waiters can be moved this year or next, he'll have some value to a playoff team.

[nuposse04]

Who in their right mind would "covet" the chance to overpay Brown. He's an overrated starter, that's about it. Hard pass. Adams also makes little sense that Bryant is a great offensive talent already and they are utilizing him more now. Dion waiters is flaming garbage.

[Resistance]

Ok, but it's not just about salary, it's about value. Adams is a little overpaid, but it's not a long-term commitment - he's also someone you could flip for value, or sign to a more favorable next contract. Waiters can be moved this year or next, he'll have some value to a playoff team.

Washington has a new GM.

Go ahead and find the trade to flip Adams for value so Sheppard (or Presti if this trade doesn't happen) can learn how it is done.


I wouldn't expect much good coming back to Washington when they trade Waiters to a playoff team.

[giberish]

IMO this is brutal for Washington and not very good for Miami.

Boston fans may expect Hayward to be 'all the way back' but one preseason game isn't convincing other teams. It will take an extended stretch of play for the rest of the league to start valuing Hayward like that - midseason at best.

For Washington they get Brown as their only incentive for Beal (unless you left out a bunch of picks from Boston), while giving up Brown (low value but still worth something) and taking on two bad contracts that create a huge luxury tax problem for 2020-1 (yes, Adams is good, but he's still overpaid).

[Resistance]

Ok, but it's not just about salary, it's about value. Adams is a little overpaid, but it's not a long-term commitment - he's also someone you could flip for value, or sign to a more favorable next contract. Waiters can be moved this year or next, he'll have some value to a playoff team.

Washington has a new GM.

Go ahead and find the trade to flip Adams for value so Sheppard (or Presti if this trade doesn't happen) can learn how it is done.


I wouldn't expect much good coming back to Washington when they trade Waiters to a playoff team.

I decided to help you on finding a trade for Adams.


Sacramento, Clippers, Golden State, Phoenix, Lakers

Sacramento - Signed Dedmon

Clippers - Would have to send too much of their depth to make a trade work. Thin on future draft picks.

Golden State - Allocating a large salary to traditional centers isn't their way of doing things.

Phoenix - Has Ayton

Lakers - Has Davis and is thin on future draft picks.



Utah, OKC, Minnesota, Portland, Denver

Utah - Has Gobert

OKC - Currently has Adams

Minnesota - Has Towns. Might need to send out Wiggins to make the trade work and
presti would ask for compensation which Minnesota appears reluctant to do.

Portland - Has Whiteside and eventually Nurkic

Denver - Has Jokic



Houston, san Antonio, Dallas, New Orleans, Memphis

Houston - Has Capela and is thin on future picks

San Antonio - Has LMA and trading away first round picks isn't their normal way of doing things.

Dallas - A package of Lee and Hardaway is enough outgoing salary, but Dallas is thin on future picks.

New Orleans - Has Favors and a new FO that isn't under win now pressure.



Cleveland, Milwaukee, Detroit, Indiana, Chicago

Cleveland - Is in a rebuild and has Thompson.

Milwaukee - Has the Lopez brothers and owes future picks.

Detroit - Has Drummond.

Indiana - Has Turner

Chicago - Has Carter and Gafford has some promise. Not in a win now mood and the FO is also reluctant to
trade away future picks.



New York, Philadelphia, Toronto, Brooklyn, Boston

New York - Is in a holding pattern and is in no hurry to win now.

Philadelphia - Has Embiid and Horford

Toronto - Has Gasol and Ibaka. Might be going into a makeover soon, so probably not interested in trading
away a first for Adams.

Brooklyn - Has Allen and Jordan. Would have to give up quite a bit of depth to trade for Adams.

Boston - They have the assets (picks) and perhaps a neeed.



Atlanta, Miami, Charlotte, Washington, Orlando

Atlanta - Is in a rebuild and prefers players that have some shooting range.

Miami - Owes future picks.

Charlotte - They should be in a rebuild and should stay away from trading for Adams.

Washington - They should be in a rebuild and should stay away from trading for Adams.

Orlando - Has Bamba and Vucevic.

[gom]

MIA does not want to be in this deal. Right now Winslow is better than Hayward, especially because of the contract. Also, I don't see the Heat ditching Waiters who arrived to training camp in prime condition. Miami is likely going to roll with the team they have, which should be good enough to make the postseason. We'll add another player to the mix at the deadline (a disgruntled star) or next offseason. No hurry at all.

[BullyKing]

Boston turns Brown/Hayward into Beal/Winslow

You'd think typing these words would have been the tip off that this trade is unreasonable.

[Andrew McCeltic]

We'll see, I guess. How Hayward looks starting the season, what his market is; how bad Washington is to start the season, what their options are; how much OKC wants to save money while they rebuild; how good Winslow is, how competitive Miami is, how patient Jimmy Butler is.

[Resistance]

Ok, but it's not just about salary, it's about value. Adams is a little overpaid, but it's not a long-term commitment - he's also someone you could flip for value, or sign to a more favorable next contract. Waiters can be moved this year or next, he'll have some value to a playoff team.

Washington has a new GM.

Go ahead and find the trade to flip Adams for value so Sheppard (or Presti if this trade doesn't happen) can learn how it is done.


I wouldn't expect much good coming back to Washington when they trade Waiters to a playoff team.

I decided to help you on finding a trade for Adams.


Sacramento, Clippers, Golden State, Phoenix, Lakers

Sacramento - Signed Dedmon

Clippers - Would have to send too much of their depth to make a trade work. Thin on future draft picks.

Golden State - Allocating a large salary to traditional centers isn't their way of doing things.

Phoenix - Has Ayton

Lakers - Has Davis and is thin on future draft picks.



Utah, OKC, Minnesota, Portland, Denver

Utah - Has Gobert

OKC - Currently has Adams

Minnesota - Has Towns. Might need to send out Wiggins to make the trade work and
presti would ask for compensation which Minnesota appears reluctant to do.

Portland - Has Whiteside and eventually Nurkic

Denver - Has Jokic



Houston, san Antonio, Dallas, New Orleans, Memphis

Houston - Has Capela and is thin on future picks

San Antonio - Has LMA and trading away first round picks isn't their normal way of doing things.

Dallas - A package of Lee and Hardaway is enough outgoing salary, but Dallas is thin on future picks.

New Orleans - Has Favors and a new FO that isn't under win now pressure.



Cleveland, Milwaukee, Detroit, Indiana, Chicago

Cleveland - Is in a rebuild and has Thompson.

Milwaukee - Has the Lopez brothers and owes future picks.

Detroit - Has Drummond.

Indiana - Has Turner

Chicago - Has Carter and Gafford has some promise. Not in a win now mood and the FO is also reluctant to
trade away future picks.



New York, Philadelphia, Toronto, Brooklyn, Boston

New York - Is in a holding pattern and is in no hurry to win now.

Philadelphia - Has Embiid and Horford

Toronto - Has Gasol and Ibaka. Might be going into a makeover soon, so probably not interested in trading
away a first for Adams.

Brooklyn - Has Allen and Jordan. Would have to give up quite a bit of depth to trade for Adams.

Boston - They have the assets (picks) and perhaps a neeed.



Atlanta, Miami, Charlotte, Washington, Orlando

Atlanta - Is in a rebuild and prefers players that have some shooting range.

Miami - Owes future picks.

Charlotte - They should be in a rebuild and should stay away from trading for Adams.

Washington - They should be in a rebuild and should stay away from trading for Adams.

Orlando - Has Bamba and Vucevic.

I gave you a headstart on a discussion for an Adams trade. Instead of taking advantage of my help, you did nothing.

I don't understand why you come here for a discussion when you really have no interest in a valid discussion.

[NuggetsWY]

OP heavily favors Washington acknowledging that Boston is taking a risk on Beal not re-signing but barely acknowledges the Brown contract possibilities. As written, not going to happen. Teams are going to want assurances from both Beal and Brown before anyone makes any deals.

[Andrew McCeltic]

Right, the “there’s not a team in the league with room for Steven Adams” head start.

I disagree that Adams is a bad fit for a rebuilding team - he’s exactly the kind of young veteran linchpin you can sink 25 million into for a couple of seasons. If you think the market for him is so limited that he’s effectively a bad contract OKC will have to use a pick to move for expirings, that’s a different issue.

[Andrew McCeltic]

Brown is a restricted free agent - the only risk for WAS is that he’d take his QO in order to have a wider choice of destinations in July 2021 - but that’s hugely unlikely for a bunch of reasons.

[BullyKing]

There's also the risk someone offers him more than you think he's worth. And the premise of the trade is that Hayward is back to himself, which is how you justify this lopsided proposal, but if Hayward is back to himself then he is going to opt-out. So Miami is left with nothing, Washington is left with nothing but the bad contracts from Miami that you're dumping on them, and Boston has Beal for at least another year along with Winslow locked into what is looking like a great contract. Yup, perfectly even trade all around.

[BBallFreak]

Absolute pass for Miami. Hayward has negative value. Winslow doesn't. We'll keep him happily.

[Andrew McCeltic]

There's also the risk someone offers him more than you think he's worth. And the premise of the trade is that Hayward is back to himself, which is how you justify this lopsided proposal, but if Hayward is back to himself then he is going to opt-out. So Miami is left with nothing, Washington is left with nothing but the bad contracts from Miami that you're dumping on them, and Boston has Beal for at least another year along with Winslow locked into what is looking like a great contract. Yup, perfectly even trade all around.

Miami was the runner-up when Hayward was a free agent. There aren’t many teams with cap space next summer - none appealing - if he opted out, it would be to re-up with the Heat.

You have to weigh those risks against the alternatives: Washington is left with nothing if Beal walks; they have to make a deal if Beal demands a trade, but they might not find a team he wants to join with assets to offer like Jaylen Brown. And Miami is waiting for the right trade, but they have to weigh the opportunities that come along against their cap flexibility, the age of their roster, development of young players, deterioration of older players..