BOS - MIA - OKC - WAS

[pacers33granger]

Yeah this is absolutely brutal for Miami and Washington. OP has sneakily put Troy Brown as outgoing for Washington too which makes it all the more worse.

[Resistance]

Right, the “there’s not a team in the league with room for Steven Adams” head start.

I disagree that Adams is a bad fit for a rebuilding team - he’s exactly the kind of young veteran linchpin you can sink 25 million into for a couple of seasons. If you think the market for him is so limited that he’s effectively a bad contract OKC will have to use a pick to move for expirings, that’s a different issue.

Earlier in this thread...

Ok, but it's not just about salary, it's about value. Adams is a little overpaid, but it's not a long-term commitment - he's also someone you could flip for value, or sign to a more favorable next contract. Waiters can be moved this year or next, he'll have some value to a playoff team.

When I asked for details/specifics on possible destinations for Adams, you decided not to provide them.

Again you act like you want a discussion, but decide not to actually give a discussion when you have the opportunity to do so.


Provide details on possible destinations for Adams or retract this:

Ok, but it's not just about salary, it's about value. Adams is a little overpaid, but it's not a long-term commitment - he's also someone you could flip for value, or sign to a more favorable next contract. Waiters can be moved this year or next, he'll have some value to a playoff team.

[BullyKing]

There's also the risk someone offers him more than you think he's worth. And the premise of the trade is that Hayward is back to himself, which is how you justify this lopsided proposal, but if Hayward is back to himself then he is going to opt-out. So Miami is left with nothing, Washington is left with nothing but the bad contracts from Miami that you're dumping on them, and Boston has Beal for at least another year along with Winslow locked into what is looking like a great contract. Yup, perfectly even trade all around.

Miami was the runner-up when Hayward was a free agent. There aren’t many teams with cap space next summer - none appealing - if he opted out, it would be to re-up with the Heat.

You have to weigh those risks against the alternatives: Washington is left with nothing if Beal walks; they have to make a deal if Beal demands a trade, but they might not find a team he wants to join with assets to offer like Jaylen Brown. And Miami is waiting for the right trade, but they have to weigh the opportunities that come along against their cap flexibility, the age of their roster, development of young players, deterioration of older players..

You really will just make up any assumption necessary to defend a proposal that literally everyone has said is heavily lopsided in favor of one team - the one you happen to support. Since you're only response to constructive criticism is to layer on more and more assumptions, no point to anyone else really participating.

[pacers33granger]

The problem with the unfounded assumption that Hayward will be back to normal is that, even if he is, Miami doesn't make this deal.

[Andrew McCeltic]

There's also the risk someone offers him more than you think he's worth. And the premise of the trade is that Hayward is back to himself, which is how you justify this lopsided proposal, but if Hayward is back to himself then he is going to opt-out. So Miami is left with nothing, Washington is left with nothing but the bad contracts from Miami that you're dumping on them, and Boston has Beal for at least another year along with Winslow locked into what is looking like a great contract. Yup, perfectly even trade all around.

Miami was the runner-up when Hayward was a free agent. There aren’t many teams with cap space next summer - none appealing - if he opted out, it would be to re-up with the Heat.

You have to weigh those risks against the alternatives: Washington is left with nothing if Beal walks; they have to make a deal if Beal demands a trade, but they might not find a team he wants to join with assets to offer like Jaylen Brown. And Miami is waiting for the right trade, but they have to weigh the opportunities that come along against their cap flexibility, the age of their roster, development of young players, deterioration of older players..

You really will just make up any assumption necessary to defend a proposal that literally everyone has said is heavily lopsided in favor of one team - the one you happen to support. Since you're only response to constructive criticism is to layer on more and more assumptions, no point to anyone else really participating.

They’re not “assumptions”.. those are just my assessments of the situation each team is in. Go ahead and disagree, I’d be interested to know how you do - but I’m not making things up.

[BBallFreak]

What you haven't answered, to my satisfaction anyway, is why Miami should want him at this point in his career? Feels like we dodged a bullet there. See no reason to change that, now. And certainly not at the expense of Justise Winslow...

[Illmatic12]

Yeah this is absolutely brutal for Miami and Washington. OP has sneakily put Troy Brown as outgoing for Washington too which makes it all the more worse.

Yeah that’s pretty laughable .

With where they are , Washington would rather have Troy Brown Jr on a rookie scale than pay $30M to Jaylen Brown

[nate33]

The Wizards would honestly be better off just giving Beal away for cap room. That's how bad this trade is.

[Andre Roberstan]

This is an almost lock-worthy heist for Boston, even if you take the tack that Hayward becomes what he was before.

[Hoops23]

The Miami Heat happily pass with the trade.
They will hang to the younger Winslow who has a better contract than Hayward.
I like to see how Waiters play this season. He did a lot of work out this summer. He will be better than last season.

The Celts got the better of the deal here.

[Andrew McCeltic]

Revisit in a month or two - I think it’s better than 50/50 that Hayward is 100% back, and visibly more impactful as a scorer than Winslow.

I’m also waiting to hear what kind of Beal trade Washington fans think would bring a good and realistic return.

[giberish]

Revisit in a month or two - I think it’s better than 50/50 that Hayward is 100% back, and visibly more impactful as a scorer than Winslow.

I’m also waiting to hear what kind of Beal trade Washington fans think would bring a good and realistic return.

Not a Washington fan, but just as a start to get things close. First take out the OKC part. Washington isn't giving up youth in a Beal trade, and they would rather not have Adams pushing them into the luxury tax. Then add pick(s) from Boston. IMO it would take the Memphis 1st, but perhaps a couple of lessor 1sts work. This also depends on how Washington views Jaylen Brown as there are significant differences of opinion.

Of course Washington looks to be keeping Beal all year then making a decision next summer. If he makes an All-NBA team then he probably signs a supermax extension and they have to work around the salary. They want to see what Wall is like going forward on-court, or possibly to hope that someone gets desperate to make a big move next summer with only AD on the FA market (and he seems to want the Lakers just for being the Lakers so he's unlikely to leave).

[Andrew McCeltic]

Right, the “there’s not a team in the league with room for Steven Adams” head start.

I disagree that Adams is a bad fit for a rebuilding team - he’s exactly the kind of young veteran linchpin you can sink 25 million into for a couple of seasons. If you think the market for him is so limited that he’s effectively a bad contract OKC will have to use a pick to move for expirings, that’s a different issue.

Earlier in this thread...

Ok, but it's not just about salary, it's about value. Adams is a little overpaid, but it's not a long-term commitment - he's also someone you could flip for value, or sign to a more favorable next contract. Waiters can be moved this year or next, he'll have some value to a playoff team.

When I asked for details/specifics on possible destinations for Adams, you decided not to provide them.

Again you act like you want a discussion, but decide not to actually give a discussion when you have the opportunity to do so.


Provide details on possible destinations for Adams or retract this:

Ok, but it's not just about salary, it's about value. Adams is a little overpaid, but it's not a long-term commitment - he's also someone you could flip for value, or sign to a more favorable next contract. Waiters can be moved this year or next, he'll have some value to a playoff team.

If Washington acquired Adams and didn’t want him as a transition center for their rebuild, and wanted to move his contract, you have to keep in mind, first of all, that the trade market is going to rearrange itself a couple of times over the next year. But just looking today, I see:

Adams to San Antonio for Gasol, Belinelli, Rudy Gay
To Phoenix for Tyler Johnson, Ty Jerome, Baynes
To Dallas for Tim Hardaway Jr.
To Chicago, Kris Dunn to WAS, Otto Porter to a third team, something else to the Wizards
To Sacramento for Ariza and Bogdanovic
To Atlanta for expirings and a future protected 1st
To Charlotte for Biyombo’s expiring, filler, a 1st
To Cleveland for Zizic and a couple of expirings

That’s assuming the priority is to shed salary - if it were me, I’d keep Adams as a player or split him into smaller contracts and use them opportunistically - flip them to contenders or use smaller expirings to take on money for picks or rookie scale players.

[Andrew McCeltic]

Revisit in a month or two - I think it’s better than 50/50 that Hayward is 100% back, and visibly more impactful as a scorer than Winslow.

I’m also waiting to hear what kind of Beal trade Washington fans think would bring a good and realistic return.

Not a Washington fan, but just as a start to get things close. First take out the OKC part. Washington isn't giving up youth in a Beal trade, and they would rather not have Adams pushing them into the luxury tax. Then add pick(s) from Boston. IMO it would take the Memphis 1st, but perhaps a couple of lessor 1sts work. This also depends on how Washington views Jaylen Brown as there are significant differences of opinion.

Of course Washington looks to be keeping Beal all year then making a decision next summer. If he makes an All-NBA team then he probably signs a supermax extension and they have to work around the salary. They want to see what Wall is like going forward on-court, or possibly to hope that someone gets desperate to make a big move next summer with only AD on the FA market (and he seems to want the Lakers just for being the Lakers so he's unlikely to leave).

So:

Hayward to MIA
Beal, Winslow to BOS
Jaylen Brown, Meyers Leonard, Waiters, picks to WAS?

Beal isn’t going to be all-NBA on a lotto team. He’s probably not taking (or getting) the supermax. If Wall gets healthy and they give Beal the supermax, they would need incredible luck with Hachimura, Bryant, Brown and/or the 2020 draft.

Wall and Beal never fit, the right move was to trade one of them years ago, ideally Wall before his extension. IMO they need a Brooklyn style rebuild, where, like the Boston picks, Wall is treated as a sunk cost for the next several years and anything they recover from him (meaningful playing time, a trade) is gravy.

[Resistance]

Ok, but it's not just about salary, it's about value. Adams is a little overpaid, but it's not a long-term commitment - he's also someone you could flip for value, or sign to a more favorable next contract. Waiters can be moved this year or next, he'll have some value to a playoff team.

If Washington acquired Adams and didn’t want him as a transition center for their rebuild, and wanted to move his contract, you have to keep in mind, first of all, that the trade market is going to rearrange itself a couple of times over the next year. But just looking today, I see:

Adams to San Antonio for Gasol, Belinelli, Rudy Gay
To Phoenix for Tyler Johnson, Ty Jerome, Baynes
To Dallas for Tim Hardaway Jr.
To Chicago, Kris Dunn to WAS, Otto Porter to a third team, something else to the Wizards
To Sacramento for Ariza and Bogdanovic
To Atlanta for expirings and a future protected 1st
To Charlotte for Biyombo’s expiring, filler, a 1st
To Cleveland for Zizic and a couple of expirings

That’s assuming the priority is to shed salary - if it were me, I’d keep Adams as a player or split him into smaller contracts and use them opportunistically - flip them to contenders or use smaller expirings to take on money for picks or rookie scale players.

Adams to San Antonio for Gasol, Belinelli, Rudy Gay

Now that is a really interesting trade. Gay (33) ($14 million | $14 million) and Belenelli (33) ($5.8 million) are on the older side and don't fit with a rebuilding team.. I don't have them bringing much back in value (picks or young players) when Washington is trying to redirect them to other teams. The Gasol part of the trade has me confused. Is there another Gasol relative that has just signed with the Spurs? Marc (34) is still with Toronto the last time I looked and Pau (39) signed with Portland. Is San Antonio willing to add a first in a trade for Adams? I have LMA and Gay able to co-exist on the court together while LMA and Adams might have problems against quicker teams.

To Phoenix for Tyler Johnson, Ty Jerome, Baynes

Ayton and Adams on the court together brings up the question if they are able to be effective against quicker teams. Baynes and Johnson are expiring contracts and probably not going to generate a first for Washington. Ty Jerome represents some value, but I would ask for more value if I am Sheppard.

To Dallas for Tim Hardaway Jr.

Is that trade legal per the CBA?

86. How do simultaneous trades work? How much salary can a team take back in a simultaneous trade?

For non-taxpaying teams (again, they must be under the tax level after the trade), the salaries that can be acquired depend on the total salaries the team is trading away:

Non-Taxpaying Teams
Outgoing salary...................Maximum incoming salary
$0 to $6,533,333.................175% of the outgoing salary, plus $100,0005
$6,533,334 to $19.6 million.....The outgoing salary plus $5 million5
$19.6 million and up .............125% of the outgoing salary, plus $100,000

Tim Hardaway Jr. $20,025,127



Steven Adams: $25,842,697

$25,842,697 - $100,000 = $25,742,697

$25,742,697 / 1.25 =$20,594,158

$20,594,158 - $20,025,127 (Hardaway) = $569,031


My calculations show that Dallas need to send out more salary than just Hardaway. What do your calculations show?

Even if you adjust the trade to make it CBA compliant, where is the value going to Washington? It sure isn't Hardaway.
Dallas isn't rich in first round picks, so it will be difficult to squeeze them for another.

To Chicago, Kris Dunn to WAS, Otto Porter to a third team, something else to the Wizards

Porter is making $27,250,575 this season, so there is going to be over $20 million in salary that you classified as "something else" coming back to the Wizards. What team is sending expiring salary and a first for Porter? You need to be more specific with that.

To Sacramento for Ariza and Bogdanovic

Sacramento is sending out two wings and taking in a center. It doesn't come across as a logical move for them to make.

To Atlanta for expirings and a future protected 1st

Atlanta prefers players with shooting range which Adams currently lacks. I don't have them as interested enough to send a first for Adams.

To Charlotte for Biyombo’s expiring, filler, a 1st

I have them in a rebuild situation and needing to upgrade much of the roster. Sending out a first for an expensive center when they have multiple needs in a rebuild situation doesn't come across as the best use of resources.

To Cleveland for Zizic and a couple of expirings

Will Washington be able to flip Zizic for a decent first? They already have Bryant making $8 million and that is good enough for now. Cleveland is also in a rebuild and might hesitate on making the trade if Washington also demands a first round pick to be included.

[HartfordWhalers]

This is an almost lock-worthy heist for Boston, even if you take the tack that Hayward becomes what he was before.

Eh, I heard it was lock worthy.

If anyone wants to discuss this choice, feel free to pm me.