Dunc'd On Mock Trade Deadline Covington Deal

[K_chile22]

Just wanted to share this deal from the mock deadline podcast to get thoughts:

Houston sends: Capela, 2020&2022 FRP, two minimum guys, Nene
Houston gets, Covington, Thiess

Boston sends Thiess, Poirier, 2020 bucks first
gets: Capela

Minny Sends RoCo
Minny gets Roberson, 2020 Hou and Mil 1sts, 2022 Hou 1st, minimum guy from hou

OKC sends Roberson
Gets Minimum guy from Hou, Nene

Houston gets covington and a new center, Boston gets capela, Minny gets 3 firsts, OKC saves a lot of money for nothing. This is done as a series of 3 different trades to make the salary matching work

Personally I think this is a hefty overpay for Covington, and an undervalue of Capela, and three of the four hosts agreed (the same guy was in charge of Boston and Houston). What do yall think?

[Balkman32]

3 FRP for Covington? YIKES. That seems to be 2-3 more than needed. I like Covington but, I don't think him and Thiess are worth that much. If the Rockets trade their 2020 & 2022 they will have no first round picks to trade for the next 400+ days.

OKC likes this deal because they get a trade exception, dip the lux tax and can go out and save a team like the Heat, Warriors or Blazers from the Lux Tax or they can go get a 3-D wing.

Boston would have to send out an additional $2.5 m (Ojeley & Green) for this deal to work with the salary of Capela.

[K_chile22]

3 FRP for Covington? YIKES. That seems to be 2-3 more than needed. I like Covington but, I don't think him and Thiess are worth that much. If the Rockets trade their 2020 & 2022 they will have no first round picks to trade for the next 400+ days.

OKC likes this deal because they get a trade exception, dip the lux tax and can go out and save a team like the Heat, Warriors or Blazers from the Lux Tax or they can go get a 3-D wing.

Boston would have to send out an additional $2.5 m (Ojeley & Green) for this deal to work with the salary of Capela.

No it's done in three trades, they send Poirier and Thiess to OKC for Roberson first then send out Roberson in a three team trade with Minny to take back Capela. Then Houston sends Nene and. Minimum guy to OKC for Thiess, at least that's how I think it works lol

But I think Capela and a FRP is plenty from Hou and Boston should send BKN's first rounder instead

[shrink]

I haven’t listened yet, and this is always one of my favorite podcasts of the year. This seems like a lot for Covington, but the MIL and HOU 1st are so late, I suspect that this would not have been enough. MIN is really gambling that the HOU 2022 1st is worth something, and I wouldn’t want to bet against Harden and Morey. Moreover, I think it will take a good deal to pry him away from MIN.

To quote Gersson Rosas, this season is about establishing an offensive and defensive identity, and creating a system to develop youth. If they don’t accomplish those three things, we will have failed. Covington is critical to this process.

Offensively, besides Towns and Dieng (who will never be played simultaneously), Covington is their best three point shooter at 36% for his career. With their 5-out system, Wolves started the season on a terrific run, with Towns able to show off all those skills he was always claiming weren’t utilized, and Wiggins able to beat his man and find no opposition between him and the basket, to score or pass out to a three point shooter. After the first few weeks though, defenses realized that MIN couldn’t make shots (3rd in 3PA, last in 3P%!), so they packed the paint. This is a reason for the Teague trade - to get a player defenders must cover at the three point line, so they can run some semblance of the system.

Defensively, the Wolves will only go as far as Towns goes, and his biggest need is to develop defensively. People often see his bad defensive stats and claim he is lazy, but the opposite is true. Towns’ problem is that he constantly breaks the defensive system to go out and challenge opponents. The system requires him to stay closer to the basket, even if it means giving up mid-rangers, and Towns doesn’t like doing that. If there is any hope for KAT to improve, he needs to be paired with a PF who he respects, who makes him feel protected on his back side, and who makes good decisions. I fear losing RoCo would set Towns back even further than when he started over-pursuing again during the losing streak.

Overall three, (probably very late) 1sts is a pretty good haul for MIN. However, losing Covington would make this sad season even more of a waste, where they are more likely to lose time developing players and their system, and make it harder for Rosas to evaluate which players he wants for the future.

[shrink]

I’m curious if there were multiple bids for Covington?

The door is open for a new champion this year, and many teams who dream of rings have a giant hole in their roster at SF, and no good answer to fill it. Compared with, say Iguodala, he’s younger (29 vs 36), an elite team defender (1st team All Defense in 2018), low usage, better 3P% (36 vs 33), and provides three years of service on a sweet deal. Acquiring Covington also keeps him out of the hands of their rivals. I can see high demand from several teams, who have the stars and the scoring, and need a little more to distance themselves from their rivals.

[K_chile22]

I’m curious if there were multiple bids for Covington?

The door is open for a new champion this year, and many teams who dream of rings have a giant hole in their roster at SF, and no good answer to fill it. Compared with, say Iguodala, he’s younger (29 vs 36), an elite team defender (1st team All Defense in 2018), low usage, better 3P% (36 vs 33), and provides three years of service on a sweet deal. Acquiring Covington also keeps him out of the hands of their rivals. I can see high demand from several teams, who have the stars and the scoring, and need a little more to distance themselves from their rivals.

Portland offered simons and next years first, don't think they'd do that either irl tho, think they really like Simons

[shrink]

I’m curious if there were multiple bids for Covington?

The door is open for a new champion this year, and many teams who dream of rings have a giant hole in their roster at SF, and no good answer to fill it. Compared with, say Iguodala, he’s younger (29 vs 36), an elite team defender (1st team All Defense in 2018), low usage, better 3P% (36 vs 33), and provides three years of service on a sweet deal. Acquiring Covington also keeps him out of the hands of their rivals. I can see high demand from several teams, who have the stars and the scoring, and need a little more to distance themselves from their rivals.

Portland offered simons and next years first, don't think they'd do that either irl tho, think they really like Simons

I am not as high on Simons, and I am still not sure that isn’t a better offer.

Simons = MIL and HOU 1st (likely 26-30 after this trade?) .. get an actual prospect?
2021 POR 1st = 2022 HOU 1st (maybe a better pick, and confers sooner?

[eminence]

Least comfortable with it for Houston, and I can see why Minnesota might be looking for something else, but the value seems fine. A great deal for Boston, could see them chipping in a bit more.

[K_chile22]

I’m curious if there were multiple bids for Covington?

The door is open for a new champion this year, and many teams who dream of rings have a giant hole in their roster at SF, and no good answer to fill it. Compared with, say Iguodala, he’s younger (29 vs 36), an elite team defender (1st team All Defense in 2018), low usage, better 3P% (36 vs 33), and provides three years of service on a sweet deal. Acquiring Covington also keeps him out of the hands of their rivals. I can see high demand from several teams, who have the stars and the scoring, and need a little more to distance themselves from their rivals.

Portland offered simons and next years first, don't think they'd do that either irl tho, think they really like Simons

I am not as high on Simons, and I am still not sure that isn’t a better offer.

Simons = MIL and HOU 1st (likely 26-30 after this trade?) .. get an actual prospect?
2021 POR 1st = 2022 HOU 1st (maybe a better pick, and confers sooner?

How are you not high on Simons and have him worth two frps lol that offer was to compete with a deal without the second first from Houston, the 2020 first offer came to beat the Simons offer

[K_chile22]

Least comfortable with it for Houston, and I can see why Minnesota might be looking for something else, but the value seems fine. A great deal for Boston, could see them chipping in a bit more.

Without actually going through the spreadsheet I believe this opens up the full mle this off-season and eliminates the chance of going into the repeater tax at any point during the Westbrook contract, which is probably factored in here, since it gets them under the tax

Edit: I think I just talked myself into actually doing this. Maybe OKC sends cash and Boston sends a second to Houston??

[shrink]

Portland offered simons and next years first, don't think they'd do that either irl tho, think they really like Simons

I am not as high on Simons, and I am still not sure that isn’t a better offer.

Simons = MIL and HOU 1st (likely 26-30 after this trade?) .. get an actual prospect?
2021 POR 1st = 2022 HOU 1st (maybe a better pick, and confers sooner?

How are you not high on Simons and have him worth two frps lol that offer was to compete with a deal without the second first from Houston, the 2020 first offer came to beat the Simons offer

I am not high on picks in the 26-30 range. I suspect it’s more likely that Simons is a better prospect than you will find with two picks down at that level.

[NYG]

Just wanted to share this deal from the mock deadline podcast to get thoughts:

Houston sends: Capela, 2020&2022 FRP, two minimum guys, Nene
Houston gets, Covington, Thiess

Boston sends Thiess, Poirier, 2020 bucks first
gets: Capela

Minny Sends RoCo
Minny gets Roberson, 2020 Hou and Mil 1sts, 2022 Hou 1st, minimum guy from hou

OKC sends Roberson
Gets Minimum guy from Hou, Nene

Houston gets covington and a new center, Boston gets capela, Minny gets 3 firsts, OKC saves a lot of money for nothing. This is done as a series of 3 different trades to make the salary matching work

Personally I think this is a hefty overpay for Covington, and an undervalue of Capela, and three of the four hosts agreed (the same guy was in charge of Boston and Houston). What do yall think?

Is the Bucks 1st enough for Capela? Feel like it needs Langford and/or Grizzlies 1st

Can Houston meet Covington and Dieng in salary?

[NYG]

Least comfortable with it for Houston, and I can see why Minnesota might be looking for something else, but the value seems fine. A great deal for Boston, could see them chipping in a bit more.

Without actually going through the spreadsheet I believe this opens up the full mle this off-season and eliminates the chance of going into the repeater tax at any point during the Westbrook contract, which is probably factored in here, since it gets them under the tax

Edit: I think I just talked myself into actually doing this. Maybe OKC sends cash and Boston sends a second to Houston??

I would have Boston replace the Bucks 1st with Grizzlies 1st and Rockets keeping their 2020 1st

[pacers33granger]

I think you could loop another team in other than Boston to give more than the last pick in the first round for Capela.

[K_chile22]

I think you could loop another team in other than Boston to give more than the last pick in the first round for Capela.

Yeah I think Feldman really undervalued Capela. He was in charge of both Houston and Boston so negotiated with himself. He then said are we sure Capela is significantly better than Theiss and everyone was basically like, "uhhh.. we're pretty sure man" lol

[youngthegiant]

That's a terrible trade, Capela is better than Covington.

[K_chile22]

That's a terrible trade, Capela is better than Covington.

Maybe, but they're very similar in how good they are relative to their position with the main difference being Covington plays a more valuable and scarce position that Houston desperately needs. Plus Theiss is fine as a stop gap, given that they'll go small in big moments

[loserX]

Is it just me who thinks Capela is good? That is a huge value steal for Boston, and I don't understand why OKC is in this at all.

[Troubadour]

The financial implications of the trade cannot be overlooked. Gets Houston out of the tax.

[Troubadour]

Is it just me who thinks Capela is good? That is a huge value steal for Boston, and I don't understand why OKC is in this at all.

Capela is good, but if you subscribe to the view that only transcendent bigs deserve max dollars then you make this trade. If Theis gives you 80% of Capela's production and you're going to have teams playing him off the floor anyways, you might as well get a player who can defend multiple positions and hit threes.

OKC can save cash.