4-year salary breakdown ($103.7M, $54M, $6.2M, $0M):
https://www.spotrac.com/nba/oklahoma-city-thunder/yearly/cap/
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draft picks (next 5 years):
Spoiler:
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depth chart
paul // schroder
gilgeous-alexander // paul // diallo
dort // ferguson // diallo
bazley // roby
adams // x
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ufa: gallinari, noel, nader (t.o.), burton (t.o.), roberson
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What the Thunder should do about...
PAUL— The Thunder have a decision to make. Keep Chris Paul and his $85M+ owed over the next 2 years or seek to trade him and offload that money. I think the decision is an easy one and they should seek to trade him. The Thunder aren't in a great position to truly contend at the moment and with it being reported that Presti is looking to take on bad contracts for assets, the plan is clear: rebuild.
GALLINARI— Gallinari has been great for us, but he's an UFA which leads to the Thunder having an interesting decision to make. They can enjoy a lower salary bill or choose to re-sign an almost 32 y.o. Gallinari who has missed over 100 games combined in the previous 5 years (or 20 games a season on average). If you can re-sign Gallinari for a reasonable and team-friendly deal, you do it. If not, let him walk and enjoy the money saved. Another thing we must consider here is how high we want our pick to be next year in what projects to be a really good draft.
NOEL— Noel has showed out this season on both ends of the floor. There's still questions about whether or not he can be a starting 5 in OKC, and I think he can and should if and/or when Adams walks. Noel lines up with where the league is going and has earned the right at another shot at being a full-time starter. I think he is clearly a candidate we should re-sign.
NADER, BURTON, & ROBERSON— Nader has played solid for us as a bench wing and I think he gives us clear value going forward as a guy who can step in and give a little 3&D as a combo-F. Positional versatility and improvement this year open up talks about extending contract, IMO. --- Burton played quite awful this year, though his highlight plays can be quite fun to watch. I think the experiment has come to an end for the gentleman who was picked up out of desperation. Decline the team option. --- Roberson has been such a key piece for the Thunder over the years and it is unfortunate he suffered a bad knee injury. I see Presti doing him a favor and signing him to a cheap deal even if it is as a consummate professional and teammate to mentor the kids.
SCHRODER and ADAMS— Both Schroder and Adams will be entering into the final year of their respective contracts. Both players still hold value in a vacuum, but when contracts are taken into account, it might be a different story. It might be more difficult to find a suitor for Adams since he'll be getting paid a hefty $27.5M as opposed to Schroder's $15.5M. I'd wager that the potential 6MOY, Schroder, is easier to move at $15.5M. Still, a decision must be made to not trade or to trade Adams and Schroder. I'm in favor keeping Schroder for the long-haul and moving Adams, but willing to move either/or if price is right.
FERGUSON, DIALLO, ROBY, & BAZLEY— One of the easier decisions for the Thunder is to pick up the option on Diallo. He won't turn 22 until mid-June and has shown defensive chops and some offensive flashes, though has his work cut out for him on that end. --- Ferguson, in his contract year, has a lot of incentive to show a lot of improvement this year. Play him as much minutes as possible before deadline and make a determination on him then. --- Bazley has shown a ton of defensive potential and a lot to like on the offensive end moving forward. You have to wonder if it is best just to give him starter minutes and see what he can do. Just give the guy minutes. --- Let's get Roby a small, consistent role, at least. Fifteen minutes a game shouldn't be too hard to figure out. We need to see what we have.
GILGEOUS-ALEXANDER— Last but certainly not least, it's time to talk about S. G. A. He has been outstanding. Last year, in LAC, he showed us some great defense coupled with offensive flashes; this year, in OKC, he has showed us great offense but his defense suffered. It happens but still somewhat concerning given that his USG% was only ~24%. Although he improved in several areas including aggressiveness, limiting turnovers and fouls, he needs to develop his decision-making and guard skills even further after posting a paltry 17.8 ASTr last year and an even worse 14.8 ASTr this year. His AST/TO rate has hovered around 1.8-1.9 both years. While he needs to improve in this area, he still needs to develop his off-ball skills, which is another reason why I think we need to keep Schroder around for the foreseeable future. Shai effectively becomes a RFA at the completion of the 2021-2022 season so we only have 2 years to see if he is made of star stuff. We must remember that he's younger than Diallo by a whole month. Crazy. Still, it’s time to take the training wheels off and move Paul out of the way and put the ball in his hands even more.
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strategy outlook: In short, the Thunder need to get off Paul's salary and either let Gallinari walk or sign and flip him at deadline. We need to be bad next year so we get the highest possible pick. If viable, move Adams to a team with cap space or looking to unload a undesirable contract for additional assets. Keep our cheap guys in Noel and Nader and possibly Roberson. With newfound cap space after a Paul and/or Adams trade, sign a few potentially valuable vets (anything but points) and attempt to flip them to contenders at the deadline for assets + take a swing on young, undervalued players who might need change of scenery.
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draft strategy: OKC currently holds the 25th overall pick in the 2020 NBA Draft. I suspect that we could easily move that pick to get off of Paul's $85M+. The hope is to be able to send his salary to someone else, after all. However, if we keep the pick, I believe we should target the BPA, regardless of roster construction. We are looking for the most possible value here, even if it's a draft-and-stash guy; I mean, what's the rush? We are rebuilding. Same goes for our second rounder.
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f.a. targets: paul millsap, aron baynes, wesley matthews, kent bazemore, marcus morris, jae crowder, john henson, harry giles, stanley johnson, rondae hollis-jefferson, furkan korkmaz, josh jackson
