Another Atlanta Plan, w/ Boston, Orlando

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Who is worth more?

John Collins
9
25%
Jonathan Isaac
23
64%
Equal in value
4
11%
 
Total votes: 36

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Re: Another Atlanta Plan, w/ Boston, Orlando 

Post#41 » by zaymon » Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:47 pm

Buzzard wrote:
Bakomagic wrote:Isaac is not a defensive role player, he is a defensive star !

So is/was:

Thabo, 2nd team all defense 2009/10.
Beverly, 2nd team all defense 2013/14 and 1st team all defense 2016/17.
Covington, 1st team all defense 2017/18.

Which is why I used them for comparisons.

Its totally different. Isaac is one of the best forward rim protectors in the league, Covington is awful at this he cant protect the rim at all( GA 41%, Isaac 51, AD 52, Collins 57, Covington 70) As you can see this year, rim protection is back as one of the most important defensive atributes. ( especially with drop). When you add Isaac length, ability to disrupt passing lanes and foot speed its not even a discussion. You cant build your defense around Thabo, you cant around Beverly but you can around Isaac.
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Re: Another Atlanta Plan, w/ Boston, Orlando 

Post#42 » by Buzzard » Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:57 pm

zaymon wrote:
Buzzard wrote:
Bakomagic wrote:Isaac is not a defensive role player, he is a defensive star !

So is/was:

Thabo, 2nd team all defense 2009/10.
Beverly, 2nd team all defense 2013/14 and 1st team all defense 2016/17.
Covington, 1st team all defense 2017/18.

Which is why I used them for comparisons.

Its totally different. Isaac is one of the best forward rim protectors in the league, Covington is awful at this he cant protect the rim at all( GA 41%, Isaac 51, AD 52, Collins 57, Covington 70) As you can see this year, rim protection is back as one of the most important defensive atributes. ( especially with drop). When you add Isaac length, ability to disrupt passing lanes and foot speed its not even a discussion. You cant build your defense around Thabo, you cant around Beverly but you can around Isaac.

Defense is in two areas. Perimeter and rim. Atlanta added the rim protection with Capela. Now they just need to get Hunter and Reddish improving on the perimeter.

You can, and teams did, build a perimeter defense around Thabo, Covington, and Beverly. Do you honestly expect Isaac to guard Trae Young? That would make ESPN crossover follies every time he attempted it.
"Offense sells tickets, defense wins games, rebounding wins championships." Pat Summitt

"Offense sells tickets, defense wins championships." Paul Bear Bryant
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Re: Another Atlanta Plan, w/ Boston, Orlando 

Post#43 » by Godaddycurse » Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:58 pm

Buzzard wrote:
Godaddycurse wrote:
Buzzard wrote:
I think it definitely slants in favor of Orlando. Atlanta would be taking all the risk on Isaac breaking out. If he can't, the Hawks take a huge step backwards to the bottom of offensive efficiency.

Isaac would be much better suited on a team that had a good to great offense in place. Without Collins, that is not Atlanta by any stretch of the imagination.

The Mavericks, Rockets, Clippers, Lakers, Celtics, Bucks, Heat, Nuggets, and Traiblazers are all in the top 10 in offensive rating. If I were looking to move Isaac, those are the teams I would be calling. If Hunter, Huerter, or Reddish break out, the Hawks offense will improve substantially. But that is probably one to two years away.

It is not that I don't like Isaac, I just value Collins offensive impact a lot more than Isaac's defensive one. Especially with the way the Hawks are currently built.


I agree with you but that's why i had the hawks add Ibaka and Hayward to improve their offense and mitigate that risk :)

GMs do not lose a trade on purpose just because they may be winning another. Orlando needs to send more. Or a three team trade and one of Boston or Orlando sends more.

Hayward is a great piece but he has to be signed and Isaac is very much a question mark. Aminu is nothing more than what he already is; a good reserve on a decent contract. Kanter is not Capela.

At the end of the day, I do not see Atlanta taking a talent hit at both starting Center and Power Forward.


I dont think theres a hit at center because ibaka fills capela's void capably. but we had this argument before so i won't go into it again.
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Re: Another Atlanta Plan, w/ Boston, Orlando 

Post#44 » by Buzzard » Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:11 pm

Godaddycurse wrote:
Buzzard wrote:
Godaddycurse wrote:
I agree with you but that's why i had the hawks add Ibaka and Hayward to improve their offense and mitigate that risk :)

GMs do not lose a trade on purpose just because they may be winning another. Orlando needs to send more. Or a three team trade and one of Boston or Orlando sends more.

Hayward is a great piece but he has to be signed and Isaac is very much a question mark. Aminu is nothing more than what he already is; a good reserve on a decent contract. Kanter is not Capela.

At the end of the day, I do not see Atlanta taking a talent hit at both starting Center and Power Forward.


I dont think theres a hit at center because ibaka fills capela's void capably. but we had this argument before so i won't go into it again.

You do not do a trade or trades if they are seen as net negatives from jump street. The only reasons to move Collins is to get a better player or avoid paying him in 2020/21. Isaac is not the better player so from your point of view it must be to save money.
"Offense sells tickets, defense wins games, rebounding wins championships." Pat Summitt

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Re: Another Atlanta Plan, w/ Boston, Orlando 

Post#45 » by Bakomagic » Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:13 pm

Buzzard wrote:
zaymon wrote:
Buzzard wrote:So is/was:

Thabo, 2nd team all defense 2009/10.
Beverly, 2nd team all defense 2013/14 and 1st team all defense 2016/17.
Covington, 1st team all defense 2017/18.

Which is why I used them for comparisons.

Its totally different. Isaac is one of the best forward rim protectors in the league, Covington is awful at this he cant protect the rim at all( GA 41%, Isaac 51, AD 52, Collins 57, Covington 70) As you can see this year, rim protection is back as one of the most important defensive atributes. ( especially with drop). When you add Isaac length, ability to disrupt passing lanes and foot speed its not even a discussion. You cant build your defense around Thabo, you cant around Beverly but you can around Isaac.

Defense is in two areas. Perimeter and rim. Atlanta added the rim protection with Capela. Now they just need to get Hunter and Reddish improving on the perimeter.

You can, and teams did, build a perimeter defense around Thabo, Covington, and Beverly. Do you honestly expect Isaac to guard Trae Young? That would make ESPN crossover follies every time he attempted it.



Defense is two areas and Isaac can excel in both perimeter and rim protection, that is the difference between Isaac and those you mentioned.

I am honestly unconcerned when Atlanta runs pick and roll vs the magic and Isaac gets switched onto Trae and that goes vs any team that puts Isaac on an island with a perimeter guard. Ask Magic fans and they will tell you that they love when teams were unaware of Isaac's ability that they would assume they had a matchup advantage and ended forcing a trash shot or turning the ball over more times than not.

It is actually one of my favorite things to watch during Magic games the last few years.
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Re: Another Atlanta Plan, w/ Boston, Orlando 

Post#46 » by Godaddycurse » Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:27 pm

Buzzard wrote:
Godaddycurse wrote:
Buzzard wrote:GMs do not lose a trade on purpose just because they may be winning another. Orlando needs to send more. Or a three team trade and one of Boston or Orlando sends more.

Hayward is a great piece but he has to be signed and Isaac is very much a question mark. Aminu is nothing more than what he already is; a good reserve on a decent contract. Kanter is not Capela.

At the end of the day, I do not see Atlanta taking a talent hit at both starting Center and Power Forward.


I dont think theres a hit at center because ibaka fills capela's void capably. but we had this argument before so i won't go into it again.

You do not do a trade or trades if they are seen as net negatives from jump street. The only reasons to move Collins is to get a better player or avoid paying him in 2020/21. Isaac is not the better player so from your point of view it must be to save money.


Isaac has upside (is already close to it actually) of DPOY so i figure thats a worthy gamble to trade Collins for, especially when they have young already. Its not to save money i have them making similar $ in their prime. I actually voted equal in value hence the trade proposal
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Re: Another Atlanta Plan, w/ Boston, Orlando 

Post#47 » by Buzzard » Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:41 pm

Bakomagic wrote:
Buzzard wrote:
zaymon wrote:Its totally different. Isaac is one of the best forward rim protectors in the league, Covington is awful at this he cant protect the rim at all( GA 41%, Isaac 51, AD 52, Collins 57, Covington 70) As you can see this year, rim protection is back as one of the most important defensive atributes. ( especially with drop). When you add Isaac length, ability to disrupt passing lanes and foot speed its not even a discussion. You cant build your defense around Thabo, you cant around Beverly but you can around Isaac.

Defense is in two areas. Perimeter and rim. Atlanta added the rim protection with Capela. Now they just need to get Hunter and Reddish improving on the perimeter.

You can, and teams did, build a perimeter defense around Thabo, Covington, and Beverly. Do you honestly expect Isaac to guard Trae Young? That would make ESPN crossover follies every time he attempted it.



Defense is two areas and Isaac can excel in both perimeter and rim protection, that is the difference between Isaac and those you mentioned.

I am honestly unconcerned when Atlanta runs pick and roll vs the magic and Isaac gets switched onto Trae and that goes vs any team that puts Isaac on an island with a perimeter guard. Ask Magic fans and they will tell you that they love when teams were unaware of Isaac's ability that they would assume they had a matchup advantage and ended forcing a trash shot or turning the ball over more times than not.

It is actually one of my favorite things to watch during Magic games the last few years.

You probably did not enjoy watching Trae on 10-26 when he went off to the tune of 39 and 9, .500 from three and .640 from the field. That was the only game this season Isaac and Trae were both in.

As a rookie in 2018/19, Trae averaged 19.0 and 6.0 with a .574 TS% in four games against Orlando. Isaac was in all four.

This season Isaac averaged 10.5, 6.5 rebounds on a .403 TS% in his two games against Atlanta. In four games in 2018/19, Isaac averaged 10.8 and 5.3 rebounds on a .555 TS%.

Other than the pure athletic ability and length, I do not understand the comparisons to players like Draymond, Giannis, and AD. Maybe next season he breaks out; but that is a maybe.
"Offense sells tickets, defense wins games, rebounding wins championships." Pat Summitt

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Re: Another Atlanta Plan, w/ Boston, Orlando 

Post#48 » by Buzzard » Fri Jul 31, 2020 6:06 pm

Godaddycurse wrote:
Buzzard wrote:
Godaddycurse wrote:
I dont think theres a hit at center because ibaka fills capela's void capably. but we had this argument before so i won't go into it again.

You do not do a trade or trades if they are seen as net negatives from jump street. The only reasons to move Collins is to get a better player or avoid paying him in 2020/21. Isaac is not the better player so from your point of view it must be to save money.


Isaac has upside (is already close to it actually) of DPOY so i figure thats a worthy gamble to trade Collins for, especially when they have young already. Its not to save money i have them making similar $ in their prime. I actually voted equal in value hence the trade proposal

A really bad answer from my point of view. Every contender you can find has two scoring horses and for some teams there are three.

Clippers, George and Leonard
Lakers, Lebron and AD
Bucks, Giannis, Middleton, Bledsoe
76ers, Embiid, Harris, Simmons
Celtics, Tatum, Brown, Hayward
Pacers, Warren, Sabonis, Brogdon, Oladipo at full strength.

The Hawks have scoring horses in Trae and Collins. They need to improve some defense; not subtract some offense. All this trade does is put them in a position to look for a offensive horse, which is much more expensive to add. Maybe you have not noticed but players like Covington and Beverly are a lot cheaper than players like Harris, Middleton, Bledsoe, Brogdon etc.

The Hawks will be ok and do not need a quick fix. There is no logjam for the Hawks. Trae, Collins, Hunter, Reddish, Huerter, and Capela have very good chances at defined roles. Unlike Orlando, who apparently has no clue what to do with Isaac and Gordon, or if Fultz really is their point guard of the future.
"Offense sells tickets, defense wins games, rebounding wins championships." Pat Summitt

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Re: Another Atlanta Plan, w/ Boston, Orlando 

Post#49 » by Godaddycurse » Fri Jul 31, 2020 6:09 pm

Buzzard wrote:
Godaddycurse wrote:
Buzzard wrote:You do not do a trade or trades if they are seen as net negatives from jump street. The only reasons to move Collins is to get a better player or avoid paying him in 2020/21. Isaac is not the better player so from your point of view it must be to save money.


Isaac has upside (is already close to it actually) of DPOY so i figure thats a worthy gamble to trade Collins for, especially when they have young already. Its not to save money i have them making similar $ in their prime. I actually voted equal in value hence the trade proposal

A really bad answer from my point of view. Every contender you can find has two scoring horses and for some teams there are three.

Clippers, George and Leonard
Lakers, Lebron and AD
Bucks, Giannis, Middleton, Bledsoe
76ers, Embiid, Harris, Simmons
Celtics, Tatum, Brown, Hayward
Pacers, Warren, Sabonis, Brogdon, Oladipo at full strength.

The Hawks have scoring horses in Trae and Collins. They need to improve some defense; not subtract some offense. All this trade does is put them in a position to look for a offensive horse, which is much more expensive to add. Maybe you have not noticed but players like Covington and Beverly are a lot cheaper than players like Harris, Middleton, Bledsoe, Brogdon etc.

The Hawks will be ok and do not need a quick fix. There is no logjam for the Hawks. Trae, Collins, Hunter, Reddish, Huerter, and Capela have very good chances at defined roles. Unlike Orlando, who apparently has no clue what to do with Isaac and Gordon, or if Fultz really is their point guard of the future.


players like covington and beverly are alot cheaper, but players like gobert and green are just as expensive/valuable. I had isaac capable of reaching that level if not already there. I know they need more offense than just young, so thats why they got another offensive horse in OP via hayward.
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Re: Another Atlanta Plan, w/ Boston, Orlando 

Post#50 » by tiderulz » Fri Jul 31, 2020 6:19 pm

Buzzard wrote:
tiderulz wrote:
Buzzard wrote:Atlanta might send #4 and MAYBE a piece like Huerter for Isaac. The big issue is if Isaac does not break out in 2020/21, a hard decision will have to be made on how much to pay him.

Defensive role players have their slots and Isaac is only versatile on one end of the floor. That is not versatile in my opinion. Is he really worth more to a team than Thabo was with OKC or Beverly is with the Clippers? How about Chandler when he helped the Mavericks win a championship?

Covington is one of the better paid ones but no one is sending John Collins for him. Isaac is not even as versatile as Draymond much less AD or Giannis. Draymond was averaging 14 Points, 9.5 Rebounds, and 7.4 Assist by his 4th season.

Orlando needs offensive help but I doubt they get Collins from the Hawks. I think Isaac needs to breakout or they are stuck in limbo.

You said earlier i slanted it to Orlando. I didnt say the trade favored either, i just pointed out how each player was used and said it all depended on the role that someone wanted specifically for their team. I do agree with you on the need to see Isaac take another step forward this year with his development.

I think it definitely slants in favor of Orlando. Atlanta would be taking all the risk on Isaac breaking out. If he can't, the Hawks take a huge step backwards to the bottom of offensive efficiency.

Isaac would be much better suited on a team that had a good to great offense in place. Without Collins, that is not Atlanta by any stretch of the imagination.

The Mavericks, Rockets, Clippers, Lakers, Celtics, Bucks, Heat, Nuggets, and Traiblazers are all in the top 10 in offensive rating. If I were looking to move Isaac, those are the teams I would be calling. If Hunter, Huerter, or Reddish break out, the Hawks offense will improve substantially. But that is probably one to two years away.

It is not that I don't like Isaac, I just value Collins offensive impact a lot more than Isaac's defensive one. Especially with the way the Hawks are currently built.

forest for the trees again. My original comments had nothing to do with the trade, but the discussion of perceived upside and your comments on bias and "poor quality in fans to apply reasoning"
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Re: Another Atlanta Plan, w/ Boston, Orlando 

Post#51 » by patman66 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 6:19 pm

hugepatsfan wrote:I don't think Boston would want Capela. But I could see them using ATL's cap space if they want Hayward.

BOS gets: Gallinari (3 year S&T deal)
ATL gets: Hayward (taken into cap space)
OKC gets: trade exception

Let's say Gallinari signs for about $16M in year 1 (with rising salaries the next 2 years). That would free Boston to use their MLE on a defensive big like Derrick Favors (after dumping Kanter in separate deal) while avoiding the tax.

Kemba / Smart
Brown / Langford
Tatum / Ojeleye
Gallinari / G Williams
Favors / Theis / R Williams


I knew we would have to agree on one of your proposals. :lol: If Favors is receptive to a sign and trade trade kanter and the last 1st to the pelicans so that they at least get something. Kanter can give the pelicans 15-18 min a night for next year.
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Re: Another Atlanta Plan, w/ Boston, Orlando 

Post#52 » by Bakomagic » Fri Jul 31, 2020 6:25 pm

Buzzard wrote:
Bakomagic wrote:
Buzzard wrote:Defense is in two areas. Perimeter and rim. Atlanta added the rim protection with Capela. Now they just need to get Hunter and Reddish improving on the perimeter.

You can, and teams did, build a perimeter defense around Thabo, Covington, and Beverly. Do you honestly expect Isaac to guard Trae Young? That would make ESPN crossover follies every time he attempted it.



Defense is two areas and Isaac can excel in both perimeter and rim protection, that is the difference between Isaac and those you mentioned.

I am honestly unconcerned when Atlanta runs pick and roll vs the magic and Isaac gets switched onto Trae and that goes vs any team that puts Isaac on an island with a perimeter guard. Ask Magic fans and they will tell you that they love when teams were unaware of Isaac's ability that they would assume they had a matchup advantage and ended forcing a trash shot or turning the ball over more times than not.

It is actually one of my favorite things to watch during Magic games the last few years.

You probably did not enjoy watching Trae on 10-26 when he went off to the tune of 39 and 9, .500 from three and .640 from the field. That was the only game this season Isaac and Trae were both in.

As a rookie in 2018/19, Trae averaged 19.0 and 6.0 with a .574 TS% in four games against Orlando. Isaac was in all four.

This season Isaac averaged 10.5, 6.5 rebounds on a .403 TS% in his two games against Atlanta. In four games in 2018/19, Isaac averaged 10.8 and 5.3 rebounds on a .555 TS%.

Other than the pure athletic ability and length, I do not understand the comparisons to players like Draymond, Giannis, and AD. Maybe next season he breaks out; but that is a maybe.


I did enjoy it, I love basketball and it was a great game. I also like watching Trae play in general, judging by your erroneous reference to Trae's stats I get the feeling that you think I am criticizing or don't respect his game.

Furthermore, none of what you wrote dispels my assertion that Isaac is a capable perimeter defender. I am only arguing that Isaac is more valuable and impactful as a defender than Covington, Beverly and Thabo. Maybe you misunderstood my intentions ?
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Re: Another Atlanta Plan, w/ Boston, Orlando 

Post#53 » by Buzzard » Fri Jul 31, 2020 6:29 pm

Godaddycurse wrote:
Buzzard wrote:
Godaddycurse wrote:
Isaac has upside (is already close to it actually) of DPOY so i figure thats a worthy gamble to trade Collins for, especially when they have young already. Its not to save money i have them making similar $ in their prime. I actually voted equal in value hence the trade proposal

A really bad answer from my point of view. Every contender you can find has two scoring horses and for some teams there are three.

Clippers, George and Leonard
Lakers, Lebron and AD
Bucks, Giannis, Middleton, Bledsoe
76ers, Embiid, Harris, Simmons
Celtics, Tatum, Brown, Hayward
Pacers, Warren, Sabonis, Brogdon, Oladipo at full strength.

The Hawks have scoring horses in Trae and Collins. They need to improve some defense; not subtract some offense. All this trade does is put them in a position to look for a offensive horse, which is much more expensive to add. Maybe you have not noticed but players like Covington and Beverly are a lot cheaper than players like Harris, Middleton, Bledsoe, Brogdon etc.

The Hawks will be ok and do not need a quick fix. There is no logjam for the Hawks. Trae, Collins, Hunter, Reddish, Huerter, and Capela have very good chances at defined roles. Unlike Orlando, who apparently has no clue what to do with Isaac and Gordon, or if Fultz really is their point guard of the future.


players like covington and beverly are alot cheaper, but players like gobert and green are just as expensive/valuable. I had isaac capable of reaching that level if not already there. I know they need more offense than just young, so thats why they got another offensive horse in OP via hayward.

Your assumptions are huge as is the 3 different guaranteed moving pieces. For the Hawks, this is just trading to be trading to incur more risk. But if you are a Magic fan and want a better power forward, its a good move. If you are a Celtics fan and are worried about losing Hayward for nothing, getting Capela is also a good move.

The Hawks need to get more for trading Collins and Capela. The Hayward part could be good if he is extended. The Collins for Isaac part sucks, no other way to look at.
"Offense sells tickets, defense wins games, rebounding wins championships." Pat Summitt

"Offense sells tickets, defense wins championships." Paul Bear Bryant
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Re: Another Atlanta Plan, w/ Boston, Orlando 

Post#54 » by SmartWentCrazy » Fri Jul 31, 2020 6:48 pm

Buzzard wrote:
zaymon wrote:
Buzzard wrote:Your reasoning is a little flawed and seems to lean more to Orlando. Orlando was one of the better defending teams in the NBA even without Isaac a big part of the year. But they were one of the worse offensive teams all season. Collins would be a great shot in the arm for them; I have no doubt about that.

The Hawks on the other hand were bottom 5 in both offense and defense. When Collins came back they moved up to 15th in offensive rating. The Hawks added a rim protector in Capela and its obvious from their poor offensive performance, they cannot afford to be without Collins.

Orlando is in a difficult spot with Isaac. Gordon makes them a more explosive offensive team but it seems their fan base favors Isaac. Honestly, I think they need to swap Gordon or Isaac with maybe a pick to move up and grab a point guard. Maybe trade for a vet point guard. I do not think Fultz is the answer.

Orlando Magic defensive rating pre all star- 107.4 (nr.7 ) post allstar- 115.9 (nr. 26).
Isaac is one of 3 versatile forwards in the nba who you can build your defense around. Other two are Giannis Antetokounmpo and Anthony Davis.
John Collins is very good offensive player, but not good enough to build your offense around, and his defense is very problematic with regards to team construction.

Instead of doing the smaller sample size post all star break. I ran the larger one after Isaac was injured.

The Magic's defensive rating from Jan. 2nd until April was 111.3 good for 13th without Issac. Their offensive rating was 20th without him at 110.5. Net rating of -0.8

With him from Oct. to Jan. 2nd they were 12th in defensive rating at 106.3 and 26th in offensive rating at 104.7. Net rating of -1.7

With Isaac the Magic were 13 and 19

Without Isaac the Magic were 17 and 16

So what we have here is a better netrating without Isaac and a better win/loss record without Isaac. It was the complete opposite for the Hawks with John Collins return. The Hawks were a much better team with Collins than without him. I understand stats and eye test; Isaac looks like a great athlete and potential defensive player. But the ultimate eye test is always the win/loss record in my opinion.

https://stats.nba.com/teams/advanced/?sort=OFF_RATING&dir=-1&Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&DateFrom=10%2F01%2F2019&DateTo=01%2F02%2F2020

https://stats.nba.com/teams/advanced/?sort=OFF_RATING&dir=-1&Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&DateFrom=01%2F02%2F2020&DateTo=04%2F30%2F2020


I hate this line of logic— to illustrate this, lets do Capela and the Rockets:

Rockets with Capela: 22-17, 110 ORTG, 107.4 DRTG
Rockets without Capela: 18-7, 115.8 ORTG, 108.9 DRTG

https://stats.nba.com/vs/advanced/#!?TeamID=1610612745&VsPlayerID=203991

So what we have here is a better net rating without Capela and a better win/loss record without Capela. I understand stats and eye test; Capela looks like a great athlete and potential defensive player. But the ultimate eye test is always the win/loss record in my opinion.

The game is way to complex to boil down individual performances for the purposes of player evaluation to three team statistics for an individual player.

Also, your logic is flawed anyways— here is Isaac’s on/off stats:

On- 105.5 ORTG, 105.2 DRTG
Off- 107.4 ORTG, 109.5 DRTG

The Magic go from an elite defense with Isaac to a mediocre defense without him. They also have a positive net rating with him and a negative net rating without him [mid 40’s win pace team to a mid 30’s win pace]

https://stats.nba.com/vs/advanced/#!?TeamID=1610612753&VsPlayerID=1628371

Here’s Collins:

On: 107 ORTG, 112.1 DRTG
Off: 105.5 ORTG, 114.3 DRTG

https://stats.nba.com/vs/advanced/#!?TeamID=1610612737&VsPlayerID=1628381

Collins takes a -8.9 net rating team into a -5.1 net rating team; i.e. he can make a terrible team less bad. Isaac takes a negative net rating team and makes them a positive one; i.e. he can make a bad team above average. You’re welcome to decide which you’d prefer for the Hawks going forward, but most teams would absolutely prefer Isaac.
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Re: Another Atlanta Plan, w/ Boston, Orlando 

Post#55 » by Buzzard » Fri Jul 31, 2020 6:49 pm

tiderulz wrote:
Buzzard wrote:
tiderulz wrote:You said earlier i slanted it to Orlando. I didnt say the trade favored either, i just pointed out how each player was used and said it all depended on the role that someone wanted specifically for their team. I do agree with you on the need to see Isaac take another step forward this year with his development.

I think it definitely slants in favor of Orlando. Atlanta would be taking all the risk on Isaac breaking out. If he can't, the Hawks take a huge step backwards to the bottom of offensive efficiency.

Isaac would be much better suited on a team that had a good to great offense in place. Without Collins, that is not Atlanta by any stretch of the imagination.

The Mavericks, Rockets, Clippers, Lakers, Celtics, Bucks, Heat, Nuggets, and Traiblazers are all in the top 10 in offensive rating. If I were looking to move Isaac, those are the teams I would be calling. If Hunter, Huerter, or Reddish break out, the Hawks offense will improve substantially. But that is probably one to two years away.

It is not that I don't like Isaac, I just value Collins offensive impact a lot more than Isaac's defensive one. Especially with the way the Hawks are currently built.

forest for the trees again. My original comments had nothing to do with the trade, but the discussion of perceived upside and your comments on bias and "poor quality in fans to apply reasoning"

It is badly applied reasoning in my opinion to assume one healthy 22 year old has less upside than another healthy 22 year old. Just rose colored glasses for their player ( fanatic talk ) with no basis other than fandom as far as I am concerned.

In three seasons Isaac has not had one monthly split in which he averaged 16 points or better a game. Where is this glimpse of perceived upside at? Andrew Wiggins had multiple better monthly shooting splits than Isaac in his first three seasons.

Let that soak in.
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Re: Another Atlanta Plan, w/ Boston, Orlando 

Post#56 » by Godaddycurse » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:11 pm

Buzzard wrote:Your assumptions are huge as is the 3 different guaranteed moving pieces. For the Hawks, this is just trading to be trading to incur more risk. But if you are a Magic fan and want a better power forward, its a good move. If you are a Celtics fan and are worried about losing Hayward for nothing, getting Capela is also a good move.

The Hawks need to get more for trading Collins and Capela. The Hayward part could be good if he is extended. The Collins for Isaac part sucks, no other way to look at.


I mean these are just 3rd year players so it is of course based on assumptions/projections. If these were established DPOY/stars then Collins alone wouldn't cut it either. i see argument for either side preferring to keep their players. This has been a fun discussion between the fan bases. :)
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Re: Another Atlanta Plan, w/ Boston, Orlando 

Post#57 » by Buzzard » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:21 pm

Godaddycurse wrote:
Buzzard wrote:Your assumptions are huge as is the 3 different guaranteed moving pieces. For the Hawks, this is just trading to be trading to incur more risk. But if you are a Magic fan and want a better power forward, its a good move. If you are a Celtics fan and are worried about losing Hayward for nothing, getting Capela is also a good move.

The Hawks need to get more for trading Collins and Capela. The Hayward part could be good if he is extended. The Collins for Isaac part sucks, no other way to look at.


I mean these are just 3rd year players so it is of course based on assumptions/projections. If these were established DPOY/stars then Collins alone wouldn't cut it either. i see argument for either side preferring to keep their players. This has been a fun discussion between the fan bases. :)

I understand why the other two teams would want to do it. The Hawks on the other hand, I cannot see it. Win now for them is just make a 8th seed. If they can avoid injuries, that should be in sight with the addition of Capela and a few free agents.

Boston may have a hard decision coming up with Hayward. I have no clue what the Magic are going to do. They are a strange team. On one hand they have plenty of firepower with Vuc, Fournier, Ross, and Gordon; but there is no arguing with their poor offensive team efficiency.
"Offense sells tickets, defense wins games, rebounding wins championships." Pat Summitt

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Re: Another Atlanta Plan, w/ Boston, Orlando 

Post#58 » by Buzzard » Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:06 pm

SmartWentCrazy wrote:
Buzzard wrote:
zaymon wrote:Orlando Magic defensive rating pre all star- 107.4 (nr.7 ) post allstar- 115.9 (nr. 26).
Isaac is one of 3 versatile forwards in the nba who you can build your defense around. Other two are Giannis Antetokounmpo and Anthony Davis.
John Collins is very good offensive player, but not good enough to build your offense around, and his defense is very problematic with regards to team construction.

Instead of doing the smaller sample size post all star break. I ran the larger one after Isaac was injured.

The Magic's defensive rating from Jan. 2nd until April was 111.3 good for 13th without Issac. Their offensive rating was 20th without him at 110.5. Net rating of -0.8

With him from Oct. to Jan. 2nd they were 12th in defensive rating at 106.3 and 26th in offensive rating at 104.7. Net rating of -1.7

With Isaac the Magic were 13 and 19

Without Isaac the Magic were 17 and 16

So what we have here is a better netrating without Isaac and a better win/loss record without Isaac. It was the complete opposite for the Hawks with John Collins return. The Hawks were a much better team with Collins than without him. I understand stats and eye test; Isaac looks like a great athlete and potential defensive player. But the ultimate eye test is always the win/loss record in my opinion.

https://stats.nba.com/teams/advanced/?sort=OFF_RATING&dir=-1&Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&DateFrom=10%2F01%2F2019&DateTo=01%2F02%2F2020

https://stats.nba.com/teams/advanced/?sort=OFF_RATING&dir=-1&Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&DateFrom=01%2F02%2F2020&DateTo=04%2F30%2F2020


On- 105.5 ORTG, 105.2 DRTG
Off- 107.4 ORTG, 109.5 DRTG

The Magic go from an elite defense with Isaac to a mediocre defense without him. They also have a positive net rating with him and a negative net rating without him [mid 40’s win pace team to a mid 30’s win pace]

https://stats.nba.com/vs/advanced/#!?TeamID=1610612753&VsPlayerID=1628371

Here’s Collins:

On: 107 ORTG, 112.1 DRTG
Off: 105.5 ORTG, 114.3 DRTG

https://stats.nba.com/vs/advanced/#!?TeamID=1610612737&VsPlayerID=1628381

Collins takes a -8.9 net rating team into a -5.1 net rating team; i.e. he can make a terrible team less bad. Isaac takes a negative net rating team and makes them a positive one; i.e. he can make a bad team above average. You’re welcome to decide which you’d prefer for the Hawks going forward, but most teams would absolutely prefer Isaac.


What I am reading here is Collins improved the Hawks offensively and defensively; and Isaac improved the Magic defensively. You can take bad team, average team, good team out of the equation. Collins cannot help he is on a bad team and Isaac cannot help he is on a average team. The on/off improvement or not is all that matters. I prefer Collins and this is not rocket science.

The Hawks flat out cannot afford to replace Collins, 21.6, 10.1, FG% 58.3, 3P% 40.1, TS% .659 with Isaac 12.0, 6.9, FG% 46.3, 3P% 33.0, TS% .542.

Isaac as I said would be a great fit on a good offensive team. I am not arguing against him for a good offensive team. Unfortunately the Magic as currently built and the Hawks without Collins are not that. The Hawks were 30th in Offensive Rating without Collins. As stated earlier, this trade is a pass all day.

14 out of 24 votes who say Isaac has more value is hardly a landslide in Isaac's favor.
"Offense sells tickets, defense wins games, rebounding wins championships." Pat Summitt

"Offense sells tickets, defense wins championships." Paul Bear Bryant
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Re: Another Atlanta Plan, w/ Boston, Orlando 

Post#59 » by SmartWentCrazy » Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:45 pm

Buzzard wrote:
SmartWentCrazy wrote:
Buzzard wrote:Instead of doing the smaller sample size post all star break. I ran the larger one after Isaac was injured.

The Magic's defensive rating from Jan. 2nd until April was 111.3 good for 13th without Issac. Their offensive rating was 20th without him at 110.5. Net rating of -0.8

With him from Oct. to Jan. 2nd they were 12th in defensive rating at 106.3 and 26th in offensive rating at 104.7. Net rating of -1.7

With Isaac the Magic were 13 and 19

Without Isaac the Magic were 17 and 16

So what we have here is a better netrating without Isaac and a better win/loss record without Isaac. It was the complete opposite for the Hawks with John Collins return. The Hawks were a much better team with Collins than without him. I understand stats and eye test; Isaac looks like a great athlete and potential defensive player. But the ultimate eye test is always the win/loss record in my opinion.

https://stats.nba.com/teams/advanced/?sort=OFF_RATING&dir=-1&Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&DateFrom=10%2F01%2F2019&DateTo=01%2F02%2F2020

https://stats.nba.com/teams/advanced/?sort=OFF_RATING&dir=-1&Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&DateFrom=01%2F02%2F2020&DateTo=04%2F30%2F2020


On- 105.5 ORTG, 105.2 DRTG
Off- 107.4 ORTG, 109.5 DRTG

The Magic go from an elite defense with Isaac to a mediocre defense without him. They also have a positive net rating with him and a negative net rating without him [mid 40’s win pace team to a mid 30’s win pace]

https://stats.nba.com/vs/advanced/#!?TeamID=1610612753&VsPlayerID=1628371

Here’s Collins:

On: 107 ORTG, 112.1 DRTG
Off: 105.5 ORTG, 114.3 DRTG

https://stats.nba.com/vs/advanced/#!?TeamID=1610612737&VsPlayerID=1628381

Collins takes a -8.9 net rating team into a -5.1 net rating team; i.e. he can make a terrible team less bad. Isaac takes a negative net rating team and makes them a positive one; i.e. he can make a bad team above average. You’re welcome to decide which you’d prefer for the Hawks going forward, but most teams would absolutely prefer Isaac.


What I am reading here is Collins improved the Hawks offensively and defensively; and Isaac improved the Magic defensively. You can take bad team, average team, good team out of the equation. Collins cannot help he is on a bad team and Isaac cannot help he is on a average team. The on/off improvement or not is all that matters. I prefer Collins and this is not rocket science.

The Hawks flat out cannot afford to replace Collins, 21.6, 10.1, FG% 58.3, 3P% 40.1, TS% .659 with Isaac 12.0, 6.9, FG% 46.3, 3P% 33.0, TS% .542.

Isaac as I said would be a great fit on a good offensive team. I am not arguing against him for a good offensive team. Unfortunately the Magic as currently built and the Hawks without Collins are not that. The Hawks were 30th in Offensive Rating without Collins. As stated earlier, this trade is a pass all day.

14 out of 24 votes who say Isaac has more value is hardly a landslide in Isaac's favor.


A) its easier to improve a terrible team to bad than a bad team to above average, no? I believe it is, as such I weight what Isaac does more than Collins when assessing value. I also value one player being able to make something elite [said another way, Isaac has an elite skill while Collins does not]

B) Understood the Hawks need Collins O. I believe that DPOY level big men have more value than mediocre D, great O big men. We can agree to disagree if you prefer.

C) I didnt say anything regarding the poll results; rather, I speculated more teams would prefer Isaac to Collins.
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Re: Another Atlanta Plan, w/ Boston, Orlando 

Post#60 » by Buzzard » Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:57 pm

SmartWentCrazy wrote:
Buzzard wrote:
SmartWentCrazy wrote:
On- 105.5 ORTG, 105.2 DRTG
Off- 107.4 ORTG, 109.5 DRTG

The Magic go from an elite defense with Isaac to a mediocre defense without him. They also have a positive net rating with him and a negative net rating without him [mid 40’s win pace team to a mid 30’s win pace]

https://stats.nba.com/vs/advanced/#!?TeamID=1610612753&VsPlayerID=1628371

Here’s Collins:

On: 107 ORTG, 112.1 DRTG
Off: 105.5 ORTG, 114.3 DRTG

https://stats.nba.com/vs/advanced/#!?TeamID=1610612737&VsPlayerID=1628381

Collins takes a -8.9 net rating team into a -5.1 net rating team; i.e. he can make a terrible team less bad. Isaac takes a negative net rating team and makes them a positive one; i.e. he can make a bad team above average. You’re welcome to decide which you’d prefer for the Hawks going forward, but most teams would absolutely prefer Isaac.


What I am reading here is Collins improved the Hawks offensively and defensively; and Isaac improved the Magic defensively. You can take bad team, average team, good team out of the equation. Collins cannot help he is on a bad team and Isaac cannot help he is on a average team. The on/off improvement or not is all that matters. I prefer Collins and this is not rocket science.

The Hawks flat out cannot afford to replace Collins, 21.6, 10.1, FG% 58.3, 3P% 40.1, TS% .659 with Isaac 12.0, 6.9, FG% 46.3, 3P% 33.0, TS% .542.

Isaac as I said would be a great fit on a good offensive team. I am not arguing against him for a good offensive team. Unfortunately the Magic as currently built and the Hawks without Collins are not that. The Hawks were 30th in Offensive Rating without Collins. As stated earlier, this trade is a pass all day.

14 out of 24 votes who say Isaac has more value is hardly a landslide in Isaac's favor.


A) its easier to improve a terrible team to bad than a bad team to above average, no? I believe it is, as such I weight what Isaac does more than Collins when assessing value. I also value one player being able to make something elite [said another way, Isaac has an elite skill while Collins does not]

B) Understood the Hawks need Collins O. I believe that DPOY level big men have more value than mediocre D, great O big men. We can agree to disagree if you prefer.

C) I didn't say anything regarding the poll results; rather, I speculated more teams would prefer Isaac to Collins.

I do not believe in your point about being easy to turn around a bad team. Playing with poor teammates is never a plus. Missed assignments, rotations, turnovers, nothing good and quite disheartening to be honest.

The idea is your teammates help make you better. Playing around a bunch of vets is a plus. Isaac definitely has a strong advantage in that regard. He was the youngest player in their primary rotation. Collins was the oldest minus Alex Len and then Dedmon.

Hawks are flat out to young to compete right now; hopefully things get better. Capela at 26 is a solid start.

Collins and Trae are solids. Orlando should shop for a efficient scorer like Collins; but that is much easier said than done. Just judging by the recent contracts, 18 efficient points a game starts at around 20 million a year and goes up.
"Offense sells tickets, defense wins games, rebounding wins championships." Pat Summitt

"Offense sells tickets, defense wins championships." Paul Bear Bryant

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