Portland sells arms to Atlantic Division enemies

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Portland sells arms to Atlantic Division enemies 

Post#1 » by Tim Lehrbach » Thu Sep 10, 2020 2:15 am

Trade #1 - Portland, Boston
Boston trades/Portland receives
Gordon Hayward
Brad Wanamaker
2020 Memphis 1st Round Draft Pick (#14)

Portland trades/Boston receives
Jusuf Nurkic
Trevor Ariza
Mario Hezonja

Boston perspective
Hayward is a luxury for the Celtics. Once he opts in, Boston opts to cash in the value of his final year for a top player at their weakest position. If Theis is retained they have one of the best center rotations in the league, but acquiring Nurkic also secures them against overpaying out of need. Ariza is a natural fit for the Celtics as a long 3&D player. The Celtics lose one pick but still get two more shots at the first round.

Portland perspective
The payroll is unsustainable and the team has plateaued, so the Blazers take a sharp turn and trade their much-loved center for a badly needed dynamic wing. Hayward adds a scoring and playmaking threat that's been missing from this team's forward corps since the departure of Nicolas Batum. Wanamaker is a bit player, but the Blazers learned the worth in having a designated shooter who brings little else during the one-year tenure of Seth Curry.

Trade #2 - Portland, Philadelphia
Philadelphia trades/Portland receives
Al Horford
Josh Richardson
Matisse Thybulle*
2020 1st Round Draft Pick (#21)

Portland trades/Philadelphia receives
CJ McCollum
Nassir Little

(*Note: this is two trades. Thybulle is acquired using the TPE generated by the Kent Bazemore trade.)

Philadelphia perspective
Ah yes, it's CJ to Philadelphia again. But this time, instead of arguing over the value gap between Tobias Harris and McCollum, the Sixers drop the redundant Horford and assemble a big four in the hopes of unlocking the missing dimensions of their offense. McCollum is equally comfortable initiating in key moments or drafting off the other stars' gravity, unselfish but unafraid of the big moments: in sum, exactly the sort of player and character to bring out the best in Simmons and Embiid. Little may or may not be ready to replace Thybulle in the rotation, but he's a prospect with a similar profile not far removed from projections for big things.

Portland perspective
Portland again shortens its salary commitments, adds draft capital and here, improves the defense across the roster. Horford is overpaid and miscast in Philly, but he's a reliable veteran and a great fit both as a rangy, smart defender and a great jump shooter. Thybulle and Richardson will not replace McCollum's offense production but are capable offensive role players and plus defenders -- Thybulle's upside at the defensive end is considerable.

The combined intent of both deals is to give Lillard a whole new look for his supporting cast -- this time a longer and more athletic/switchable roster -- while also easing the transition into the post-Lillard era with some long-term salary relief and cost-controlled assets in Richardson, Thybulle, and two additional draftees, either or both of whom could provide immediate support if Olshey hits on his picks.

Lillard/Wanamaker
Richardson/Trent/Simons
Hood/Thybulle
Hayward/Gabriel/Hoard
Horford/Collins

With picks 14, 16, and 21, based on recent mock drafts, I like the idea of getting another tall guard with explosive scoring and/or two-way potential (e.g., Okoro or Nesmith if one drops, else Green, Hampton, Bane, Stanley, Ramsey), a defensive big (McDaniels, J. Smith, T. Bey, Reed, Oturu), and a young point prospect (Terry, Maledon, Lewis, Maxey). They've also got a second-rounder to either stash a project or bolster the end of the roster with a proven college player (e.g., Riller, Tillie, Tillman, Pritchard).

I don't know that this is a direction I'd commit to for the Blazers, but it's certainly a different look. Now rip it apart! :)
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Re: Portland sells arms to Atlantic Division enemies 

Post#2 » by BullyKing » Thu Sep 10, 2020 2:17 am

Sigh. CJ is not valuable. Can we please stop pretending otherwise?

Both trades lopsided for Portland.
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Re: Portland sells arms to Atlantic Division enemies 

Post#3 » by Tim Lehrbach » Thu Sep 10, 2020 2:18 am

BTW, you may see a few crazy plans like this from me in the coming days/weeks. I hope they won't get locked because I'm hoping to try some potentially out-there stuff to gain other perspectives on valuation and types of deals that could benefit Portland. I like to present multiple deals together so that each one can be evaluated in the context of an overall strategy, but I don't necessarily endorse that strategy, if that makes any sense. Anyway, like I said, hammer away!
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Re: Portland sells arms to Atlantic Division enemies 

Post#4 » by Texas Chuck » Thu Sep 10, 2020 2:19 am

1st deal might be about right value wise though I think it favors Portland slightly.

But the 2nd one is tilted pretty far towards Portland. CJ is worth a little more than than Horford and Little holds a little value, but that doesn't add up to Richardson, Thybulle, and a first. We had a CJ/Horford debate a week or two ago and bondom posted the salary figures and CJ is owed like $60M more than Horford.
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Re: Portland sells arms to Atlantic Division enemies 

Post#5 » by Tim Lehrbach » Thu Sep 10, 2020 2:20 am

BullyKing wrote:Sigh. CJ is not valuable. Can we please stop pretending otherwise?

Both trades lopsided for Portland.


I mean, I'm not "pretending." I am disagreeing. But thanks for your feedback.
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Re: Portland sells arms to Atlantic Division enemies 

Post#6 » by Texas Chuck » Thu Sep 10, 2020 2:20 am

Tim Lehrbach wrote:BTW, you may see a few crazy plans like this from me in the coming days/weeks. I hope they won't get locked because I'm hoping to try some potentially out-there stuff to gain other perspectives on valuation and types of deals that could benefit Portland. I like to present multiple deals together so that each one can be evaluated in the context of an overall strategy, but I don't necessarily endorse that strategy, if that makes any sense. Anyway, like I said, hammer away!



Please. We look forward to them. I love the ideas for Portland in this first attempt just think the value got away from you a bit in regards to the Philly deal.
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Re: Portland sells arms to Atlantic Division enemies 

Post#7 » by Tim Lehrbach » Thu Sep 10, 2020 2:23 am

Texas Chuck wrote:1st deal might be about right value wise though I think it favors Portland slightly.

But the 2nd one is tilted pretty far towards Portland. CJ is worth a little more than than Horford and Little holds a little value, but that doesn't add up to Richardson, Thybulle, and a first. We had a CJ/Horford debate a week or two ago and bondom posted the salary figures and CJ is owed like $60M more than Horford.


Well, I didn't know there'd been a whole 'nother chapter of CJ-to-Philly that I missed. I agree that his salary is hard to swallow, but I have to think he's worth a fair bit more to the Sixers than Horford. I also think that Richardson and Thybulle are good players, so the first is possibly an overreach.
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Re: Portland sells arms to Atlantic Division enemies 

Post#8 » by Texas Chuck » Thu Sep 10, 2020 2:24 am

Tim Lehrbach wrote:
Texas Chuck wrote:1st deal might be about right value wise though I think it favors Portland slightly.

But the 2nd one is tilted pretty far towards Portland. CJ is worth a little more than than Horford and Little holds a little value, but that doesn't add up to Richardson, Thybulle, and a first. We had a CJ/Horford debate a week or two ago and bondom posted the salary figures and CJ is owed like $60M more than Horford.


Well, I didn't know there'd been a whole 'nother chapter of CJ-to-Philly that I missed. I agree that his salary is hard to swallow, but I have to think he's worth a fair bit more to the Sixers than Horford. I also think that Richardson and Thybulle are good players, so the first is possibly an overreach.


I'd suggest the pick is fine and Thybulle should be removed. But I'll let some others weigh in.

But again I love the idea of re-shaping the Blazers while still trying to win with Dame.
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Re: Portland sells arms to Atlantic Division enemies 

Post#9 » by Tim Lehrbach » Thu Sep 10, 2020 2:25 am

Texas Chuck wrote:
Tim Lehrbach wrote:BTW, you may see a few crazy plans like this from me in the coming days/weeks. I hope they won't get locked because I'm hoping to try some potentially out-there stuff to gain other perspectives on valuation and types of deals that could benefit Portland. I like to present multiple deals together so that each one can be evaluated in the context of an overall strategy, but I don't necessarily endorse that strategy, if that makes any sense. Anyway, like I said, hammer away!



Please. We look forward to them. I love the ideas for Portland in this first attempt just think the value got away from you a bit in regards to the Philly deal.


Thanks! In a sense, the Philadelphia deal is here mostly so that trading Nurkic away can be evaluated with a quality replacement in mind. If I'm off on the second deal it's not a big deal, although it's not meant to be a throwaway either.
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Re: Portland sells arms to Atlantic Division enemies 

Post#10 » by Tim Lehrbach » Thu Sep 10, 2020 2:28 am

Texas Chuck wrote:I'd suggest the pick is fine and Thybulle should be removed. But I'll let some others weigh in.


That's a good thought. Thybulle doesn't even fit into the deal, salary-wise, and had to be added via TPE. If he's the sticking point, pulling him out would be agreeable as long as the Sixers would surrender the pick. I am in the minority of really liking this draft.
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Re: Portland sells arms to Atlantic Division enemies 

Post#11 » by Tim Lehrbach » Thu Sep 10, 2020 2:29 am

If it's possible to set aside McCollum fatigue, does the trade look any better without Thybulle, Philly fans?
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Re: Portland sells arms to Atlantic Division enemies 

Post#12 » by DeBlazerRiddem » Thu Sep 10, 2020 2:29 am

Hayward for Nurkic needs more than the first to bridge the gap in my opinion.
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Re: Portland sells arms to Atlantic Division enemies 

Post#13 » by BullyKing » Thu Sep 10, 2020 2:31 am

It's certainly better but I still don't think I'd give up both Richardson and a 1st to turn Horford's bad contract into CJ's bigger, though better fitting, bad contract. It's not crazy though.
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Re: Portland sells arms to Atlantic Division enemies 

Post#14 » by Scoot McGroot » Thu Sep 10, 2020 2:35 am

The Boston deal feels like it could be closer if you swapped Robert Williams in for the 14? As for the Philly deal, it’s a hard one to negotiate. Value wise it really just may be Horford/Richardson? The 24 may not be enough but Thybulle too much. 24 and a Richardson seems a bit much. But somewhere in between there.
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Re: Portland sells arms to Atlantic Division enemies 

Post#15 » by Tim Lehrbach » Thu Sep 10, 2020 2:42 am

DeBlazerRiddem wrote:Hayward for Nurkic needs more than the first to bridge the gap in my opinion.


Scoot McGroot wrote:The Boston deal feels like it could be closer if you swapped Robert Williams in for the 14?


Portland can't accept any more salary from Boston for the players traded away here, which made it somewhat tough to balance value, but Williams could be subbed for Wanamaker or would fit into the Bazemore or Labissiere TPEs.

I feel like the risks and benefits of Nurkic and Hayward almost balance out, but Nurkic's relative rarity and extra year makes him worth paying a premium, and Ariza has some value as a bench player on a contender. Curious if Boston fans would agree.
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Re: Portland sells arms to Atlantic Division enemies 

Post#16 » by BullyKing » Thu Sep 10, 2020 2:43 am

Scoot McGroot wrote:The Boston deal feels like it could be closer if you swapped Robert Williams in for the 14? As for the Philly deal, it’s a hard one to negotiate. Value wise it really just may be Horford/Richardson? The 24 may not be enough but Thybulle too much. 24 and a Richardson seems a bit much. But somewhere in between there.


That's pretty much where I'm at. CJ/Little for Horford/Richardson/21 would need something else coming back for me personally but I'm not sure what. Collins is too much but someone like Simons doesn't really do anything for me.

Maybe something where Richardson goes to a third team and Portland and Philly split the compensation.
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Re: Portland sells arms to Atlantic Division enemies 

Post#17 » by Tim Lehrbach » Thu Sep 10, 2020 2:56 am

BullyKing wrote:
Scoot McGroot wrote:The Boston deal feels like it could be closer if you swapped Robert Williams in for the 14? As for the Philly deal, it’s a hard one to negotiate. Value wise it really just may be Horford/Richardson? The 24 may not be enough but Thybulle too much. 24 and a Richardson seems a bit much. But somewhere in between there.


That's pretty much where I'm at. CJ/Little for Horford/Richardson/21 would need something else coming back for me personally but I'm not sure what. Collins is too much but someone like Simons doesn't really do anything for me.


At this point I doubt the Blazers remain overly attached to Collins, and I'd certainly move him in the right deal to get Lillard more help. Here, though, the idea is to have two bigs, rather than just one, who can move defensively the way Horford/Collins can. Nurkic is a great defensive player but I think the Blazers could scheme just as well or better with multiple switchy bigs. Al is obviously much better than Zach, but moving Collins in a Horford deal mitigates the additive benefit.
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Re: Portland sells arms to Atlantic Division enemies 

Post#18 » by jbk1234 » Thu Sep 10, 2020 2:59 am

Scrap the Sixers deal altogether.

Portland explains to Ariza he's either agreeing to a buyout with the Celtics for 50% of his salary (within seconds of league approval of the trade), or he's cut and makes 25% of his salary. Sub Little as the rest of the filler and find a third team who will just take him. This solves all kinds of tax/payroll issues for the Celtics and gets the Blazers the return you're looking for.

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Re: Portland sells arms to Atlantic Division enemies 

Post#19 » by Texas Chuck » Thu Sep 10, 2020 3:01 am

BullyKing wrote:Maybe something where Richardson goes to a third team and Portland and Philly split the compensation.


Dallas says howdy. :D
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Re: Portland sells arms to Atlantic Division enemies 

Post#20 » by Tim Lehrbach » Thu Sep 10, 2020 3:08 am

BullyKing wrote:Maybe something where Richardson goes to a third team and Portland and Philly split the compensation.


Missed this part of your reply. I see Richardson as worth more to Portland, who needs quality replacement minutes with McCollum outgoing, than to a third party, but I could be wrong. Portland needs somebody, even if lesser than Josh R., to pick up some minutes so they're not leaning heavily on Simons again. But if he has value enough for Portland to want to keep rather than flip, then we're right back to I think McCollum is fair payment for Horford, Richardson, and a late-ish first, while you do not.

But, it's OK if we can't crack what nobody else has been able to in roughly 6000 attempts on this board. Like I said, the familiar McCollum to Philly framework is mostly here to contextualize the more novel idea of moving Nurkic to remake the frontcourt.
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