What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral?

Moderators: loserX, pacers33granger, Texas Chuck, HartfordWhalers, Mamba4Goat, Andre Roberstan, Trader_Joe, BullyKing

NYG
Head Coach
Posts: 6,748
And1: 1,088
Joined: Aug 09, 2017

What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral? 

Post#1 » by NYG » Fri Oct 16, 2020 2:43 am

First off before this becomes a Warriors troll thread... stop it, let's keep this realistic and if you're the type of Warrior fan that will take this thread's critiques of Wiggins personally, then please refrain from reading this thread. I don't want this to become a debate.

Having said that, this is not at all even a suggestion that the Warriors should or will trade Wiggins. This is not saying whatever the consensus of this thread becomes is something the Warriors should consider, but I would like to know for Wiggins trade ideas evaluation sake.

1. What would Andrew Wiggins sign for in free agency? Again, let's not get so far into our corners that we exaggerate this. Realize the contracts guys like Timofey Mozgov and Terry Rozier have received. This is just to determine how much of Wiggins' contract is dead weight.

2. What would Golden State need to include just to make Wiggins neutral value? Meaning what would the Warriors need to include to make Wiggins essentially useless expiring salary filler in value. The reason for this is because we can better understand what value we need to meet in Wiggins trade ideas. So if the answer to this question gets Wiggins to be neutral, then everything added from there is value going out to Wiggins new team and should be equal value to the incoming player. Again, let's not make this trolling or homerism, let's try to keep perspective here of Wiggins still has an actual or perceived high ceiling at a position of need in the league coming from a dysfunctional tenure in Minnesota that could have just been poor development.

Okay, let's not ruin this... and go...
BuzzCity
Pro Prospect
Posts: 851
And1: 388
Joined: Apr 21, 2014
 

Re: What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral? 

Post#2 » by BuzzCity » Fri Oct 16, 2020 2:55 am

To be fair, the same GM gave out those contracts :lol:
NYG
Head Coach
Posts: 6,748
And1: 1,088
Joined: Aug 09, 2017

Re: What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral? 

Post#3 » by NYG » Fri Oct 16, 2020 3:02 am

1. I honestly see it being someone biting and offering just over the MLE. I'm going to say $11 Million a year. Averaging out the remaining three years of Wiggins contract is about $31.5 Million a year. That's $20.5 Million extra over 3 years which is about $61 Million total.

2. So let's say the Allen Crabbe formula. The other first was for Taurean Prince, but 17th Overall dumped Crabbe's $18 Million contract. That pretty much makes it just over 3 mid-first round picks just to make Wiggins neutral.

Something like...

Felicio, Young, Satoransky and 4 for Wiggins and 2 is a good place to start. Using the Luka/Trae and Tatum/Fultz examples even if you low ball the 2020 draft, you're at least making up 2 of those mid-firsts by moving out of the top 3 in this draft. You add your own lottery protected 2021 first round draft pick and Eric Paschall and I think you're there.

Again, this is not suggesting the Warriors SHOULD do this, just what gets him neutral.

Felicio, Young, Satoransky and 4 for Wiggins, Paschall and 2021 Lottery Protected Warriors 1st is neutral IMO

Then the Warriors can trade their expirings, TPE, 4 and/or T'Wolves 1st for whatever talent they want without weighing down the value with Wiggins.
NYG
Head Coach
Posts: 6,748
And1: 1,088
Joined: Aug 09, 2017

Re: What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral? 

Post#4 » by NYG » Fri Oct 16, 2020 3:02 am

BuzzCity wrote:To be fair, the same GM gave out those contracts :lol:


That's hilarious, I didn't even realize.
Commodor
Bench Warmer
Posts: 1,474
And1: 170
Joined: Jul 24, 2008
     

Re: What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral? 

Post#5 » by Commodor » Fri Oct 16, 2020 3:25 am

Honestly the boards just need to stop including Wiggins in trades.

GSW already sees Wiggins as neutral value. He’s their best option at SF at this time. Every article coming out Of the bay points to this.

If someone wants to offer a clear upgrade at SF for Wiggins and the picks, they’ll listen.

If not, they will stand pat. No worries on GSW’s end.

If someone can find an article. Any article. That provides a credible source saying GSW is looking to get rid of Wiggins just to get rid of Wiggins, start those trade simulations.

Until then, just focus on what the TPE or Draymond + picks.

I’m so tired of the “it’s obvious!” reasoning.
jbk1234
Forum Mod - Cavs
Forum Mod - Cavs
Posts: 38,633
And1: 22,312
Joined: Dec 22, 2010
   

Re: What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral? 

Post#6 » by jbk1234 » Fri Oct 16, 2020 3:36 am

The outer limit of what a really good sixth man can make before they venture in negative territory is about $15M per IMO.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-J327A using RealGM mobile app
It is highly unlikely that the Cavs will agree with your Kevin Love evaluation for the purpose of a trade.
NYG
Head Coach
Posts: 6,748
And1: 1,088
Joined: Aug 09, 2017

Re: What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral? 

Post#7 » by NYG » Fri Oct 16, 2020 3:39 am

Commodor wrote:Honestly the boards just need to stop including Wiggins in trades.

GSW already sees Wiggins as neutral value. He’s their best option at SF at this time. Every article coming out Of the bay points to this.

If someone wants to offer a clear upgrade at SF for Wiggins and the picks, they’ll listen.

If not, they will stand pat. No worries on GSW’s end.

If someone can find an article. Any article. That provides a credible source saying GSW is looking to get rid of Wiggins just to get rid of Wiggins, start those trade simulations.

Until then, just focus on what the TPE or Draymond + picks.

I’m so tired of the “it’s obvious!” reasoning.


Where has there been Draymond rumors? I haven't seen any.
Pinkyring
General Manager
Posts: 8,619
And1: 5,162
Joined: May 28, 2016

Re: What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral? 

Post#8 » by Pinkyring » Fri Oct 16, 2020 3:40 am

He'd het 16-20 million a year right now if he was a free agent
Commodor
Bench Warmer
Posts: 1,474
And1: 170
Joined: Jul 24, 2008
     

Re: What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral? 

Post#9 » by Commodor » Fri Oct 16, 2020 3:47 am

NYG wrote:
Commodor wrote:Honestly the boards just need to stop including Wiggins in trades.

GSW already sees Wiggins as neutral value. He’s their best option at SF at this time. Every article coming out Of the bay points to this.

If someone wants to offer a clear upgrade at SF for Wiggins and the picks, they’ll listen.

If not, they will stand pat. No worries on GSW’s end.

If someone can find an article. Any article. That provides a credible source saying GSW is looking to get rid of Wiggins just to get rid of Wiggins, start those trade simulations.

Until then, just focus on what the TPE or Draymond + picks.

I’m so tired of the “it’s obvious!” reasoning.


Where has there been Draymond rumors? I haven't seen any.


At the deadline there were a few, or at least Miami was interested.

Not saying GSW is actively shopping him, but I think the boards are slightly more aligned there than with Wiggins...

Even though Draymond is essentially seen as a negative also, which GSW certainly doesn’t see him as either.
Lenneth
Senior
Posts: 559
And1: 852
Joined: Dec 23, 2014

Re: What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral? 

Post#10 » by Lenneth » Fri Oct 16, 2020 5:07 am

1. He gets a bad rap for being a disappointing #1 pick and not saving Wolves. But at the end of the day, you have 25 years old, 20 pts scorer with 45% the field and 33% from 3 pts line, a superb athlete, and untapped potential. That kind of player will generally get around 20 mils/year with a range from 15-25 mils/year.

2. This is a pointless argument. Warriors are not trying to dump Wiggins' contract by attaching assets. As a matter of fact, I doubt Warriors would dump Wiggins' contract alone for nothing in return, because they do need a starting SF. I am not saying Wiggins is off-limit though. Warriors would gladly ship Wiggins + picks for a star in return. And, I expect Warriors to explore that option, since he is the least valuable player in Warriors with a big contract. But in reality, that kind of deal probably won't happen, and I expect Warriors to keep Wiggins for the foreseeable future. What I don't expect to see is Warriors trading Wiggins + picks for a few decent players in this offseason. Warriors need a lot to challenge for a championship again, and they have a lot of questions such as aging core, Klay's health, young benches, etc. Until some of the questions are answered and figure out how far they are away from the championship, they won't throw picks away for a few random vets to bolster their bench.

Another factor is that Warriors are not that desperate. They already won 3 championships. 4th would be very nice, and that would do wonder to Curry's legacy. But,they also have a future after Curry to think of, and both 2nd pick and Wolves' 2021 pick can jump-start their rebuilding process. While they will throw everything into a deal that will make another championship reality or to a certain Greek player, they probably won't trade picks for random vets, blindly hoping they will make 4th championship closer.
User avatar
Domejandro
Forum Mod - Timberwolves
Forum Mod - Timberwolves
Posts: 13,450
And1: 17,128
Joined: Jul 29, 2014
Location: San Diego, California

Re: What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral? 

Post#11 » by Domejandro » Fri Oct 16, 2020 5:41 am

In this free-agency, not much. In most free-agency periods, probably roughly Terry Rozier money.
Apz
Senior
Posts: 512
And1: 137
Joined: Jan 18, 2019
   

Re: What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral? 

Post#12 » by Apz » Fri Oct 16, 2020 6:26 am

Probably 15m. I would atleast consider that for mavs. He just doesnt seem to have fun, while everyone at mavs seem to have. Might do something for him. Atm the deal stinks tho and even if i were willing to bet on him, mavs just dont have enough money to dump and still wojld take like next years minny pick. Whats the money that is the least he can be traded for?
User avatar
youngthegiant
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,731
And1: 4,332
Joined: Aug 31, 2011
     

Re: What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral? 

Post#13 » by youngthegiant » Fri Oct 16, 2020 6:27 am

Anywhere from 15-20 million. He's getting paid like a franchise player when he's more of a 3rd/4th option. As far as value..I actually think in the right situation a team would be willing to take him if Golden State wanted to move him. Like a Cleveland, Detroit, Charlotte, Atlanta etc.

Like would Cleveland consider trading Kevin Love or Drummond for Wiggins..I think they might do that.
User avatar
JayMKE
RealGM
Posts: 20,370
And1: 7,409
Joined: Jun 21, 2010
Location: WI
     

Re: What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral? 

Post#14 » by JayMKE » Fri Oct 16, 2020 6:30 am

What he should get and would get are two different things of course, he’s still pretty young and has PPG going for him. GS probably should just try to rehab his value for at least one season; he can put up decent numbers on a good GS team then and maybe somebody will bite at neutral or positive value but then GS might just keep him. GS is old veteran team so not that worried about his influence and maybe they’ll kick him in the ass. Otherwise probably #2.
FREE GIANNIS
IAMRANDYMARSH
Starter
Posts: 2,148
And1: 344
Joined: Jan 02, 2015
       

Re: What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral? 

Post#15 » by IAMRANDYMARSH » Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:07 am

NYG wrote:First off before this becomes a Warriors troll thread... stop it, let's keep this realistic and if you're the type of Warrior fan that will take this thread's critiques of Wiggins personally, then please refrain from reading this thread. I don't want this to become a debate.

Having said that, this is not at all even a suggestion that the Warriors should or will trade Wiggins. This is not saying whatever the consensus of this thread becomes is something the Warriors should consider, but I would like to know for Wiggins trade ideas evaluation sake.

1. What would Andrew Wiggins sign for in free agency? Again, let's not get so far into our corners that we exaggerate this. Realize the contracts guys like Timofey Mozgov and Terry Rozier have received. This is just to determine how much of Wiggins' contract is dead weight.

2. What would Golden State need to include just to make Wiggins neutral value? Meaning what would the Warriors need to include to make Wiggins essentially useless expiring salary filler in value. The reason for this is because we can better understand what value we need to meet in Wiggins trade ideas. So if the answer to this question gets Wiggins to be neutral, then everything added from there is value going out to Wiggins new team and should be equal value to the incoming player. Again, let's not make this trolling or homerism, let's try to keep perspective here of Wiggins still has an actual or perceived high ceiling at a position of need in the league coming from a dysfunctional tenure in Minnesota that could have just been poor development.

Okay, let's not ruin this... and go...


FiveThirtyEight put Wiggins as an "average starter" worth 58M over 5 years. I wouldn't expect him to get much more than the full MLE if he even gets that if he were a FA, so he's overpaid by about 20M or so per year. Typically, it has cost a FRP to shave off a year of bad money, so i would expect that to be the case here as well, which means value that is equal to 2 mid-late first rounders.

Golden State owns the 2021 Minnesota pick, which probably is mid-late lottery, but that might not be quite enough, so maybe their own 2021 pick (top 22 protected) would make it neutral.
Warriorfan
RealGM
Posts: 12,422
And1: 1,767
Joined: Jun 24, 2001
         

Re: What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral? 

Post#16 » by Warriorfan » Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:13 am

Warriors see Wiggins as a piece that will net another piece to gather assets to make a run to get a superstar.

Warriors believe playing with the core will make any player more efficient.
User avatar
babyjax13
RealGM
Posts: 19,238
And1: 6,056
Joined: Jul 02, 2006
Location: Tuscaloosa Alabama
Contact:
     

Re: What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral? 

Post#17 » by babyjax13 » Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:22 am

I think $15-17 million a year would be reasonable for him. In terms of what it would take to move him? I think two late first round picks would do it, that's two shot at cost controlled contracts, and I think you have a good chance at hitting on at least one of them if your FO is good. That helps subsidize the cost of Wiggins a bit (especially if you hit on both). A mid first (12-16) may do it, too. And by neutral, I mean you could move him for someone like Batum (dead money). If you wanted someone of Wiggins caliber (lets say Harrison Barnes, who is a bit better, and paid more appropriately) I think it would take a mid first + a late first (say in some kind of three way with Boston where 14+30 were the compensation for taking Wiggins).
Image

JazzMatt13 wrote:just because I think aliens probably have to do with JFK, doesn't mean my theory that Jazz will never get Wiggins, isn't true.

JColl
Resistance
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,332
And1: 1,701
Joined: Jan 18, 2016

Re: What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral? 

Post#18 » by Resistance » Fri Oct 16, 2020 8:28 am

Commodor wrote:Honestly the boards just need to stop including Wiggins in trades.

GSW already sees Wiggins as neutral value. He’s their best option at SF at this time. Every article coming out Of the bay points to this.

If someone wants to offer a clear upgrade at SF for Wiggins and the picks, they’ll listen.

If not, they will stand pat. No worries on GSW’s end.

If someone can find an article. Any article. That provides a credible source saying GSW is looking to get rid of Wiggins just to get rid of Wiggins, start those trade simulations.

Until then, just focus on what the TPE or Draymond + picks.

I’m so tired of the “it’s obvious!” reasoning.



As long as the conversation is civil, I don't understand why you should object to discussions about Wiggins.

If the posters become too loose with their language, report the post(s).
patman66
Sixth Man
Posts: 1,624
And1: 420
Joined: Dec 11, 2019
     

Re: What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral? 

Post#19 » by patman66 » Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:30 am

Commodor wrote:Honestly the boards just need to stop including Wiggins in trades.

GSW already sees Wiggins as neutral value. He’s their best option at SF at this time. Every article coming out Of the bay points to this.

If someone wants to offer a clear upgrade at SF for Wiggins and the picks, they’ll listen.

If not, they will stand pat. No worries on GSW’s end.

If someone can find an article. Any article. That provides a credible source saying GSW is looking to get rid of Wiggins just to get rid of Wiggins, start those trade simulations.

Until then, just focus on what the TPE or Draymond + picks.

I’m so tired of the “it’s obvious!” reasoning.


Why? There are few rumours of any player moving and they are mentioned every day. Turner, gordon. Hayward, Dipo- sorry one story,
Collins, Jrue, Horford, Posters look at a player's situation and to their mind it isn't very tenable. You have rumors of the warriors wanting a starter for the 2nd pick, are we to limit the players going back to just the Warrior TPE?

It sounds like warrrior fans are tired of the board's take that the deal was a mistake and they should try to get out of it.
patman66
Sixth Man
Posts: 1,624
And1: 420
Joined: Dec 11, 2019
     

Re: What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral? 

Post#20 » by patman66 » Fri Oct 16, 2020 10:02 am

I have him at 12-15 a year player. I think he would get a 3 year 42 contract with the 3rd year a team option for 5 mill or so buyout, Then again with the economic climate this year, maybe 1 and 15 with a team's eye towards 2021.
I see it also casting a mid 1st (15-22) to dump 15 mill in salary. (now for teams like the bucks/Celts etc that will double money impact due to the tax NO!) I have been using the 30th to dump 9 mil for example in celtic trades that I make.(Kanter, Porier and edwards and i have been sending max cash) So I have him as a negative of three mid 1st rd picks.

Using this draft, The value of the 2nd is worth probably 4-5 mid 1sts. I feel less secure on that statement. But as an example, Hayward would cost a mid 1st for Detroit or atlanta to take into cap. As his value is around 22 mill IMO and not 34. if they were sending Dedmon back at 12 mill who is also overpaid for a b/u -even steven. Now for every 15 mill of bad money GS takes back that is one less
pick that needs to go. Batum + a mid 1st for the 2nd and Wiggins is where I see it. I don't see hayward and a mid first for Wiggins and the 2nd due to Wiggins contract putting us into the tax for two more years so doubling his negative impact. That does not occur with charlotte.

That is a very high cost to move off Wiggens and GSW most likely would not pay that and compound the mistake of trading for him in the first place. Throwing the baby out with the bath water type move.

Return to Trades and Transactions