What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral?

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Re: What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral? 

Post#61 » by NoZoLakers » Fri Oct 16, 2020 6:11 pm

Warriors Analyst wrote:
cjmcallist wrote:To the OP -

I think Wiggins on the court is an actively negative player. The only contribution he seems to make on a per game basis is scoring - but that only happens at below average efficiency. Commodor and I had a discussion in another thread where I pulled these numbers for the 54 SFs last season. They're listed below.

He's a below average player, younger, athletic, with a low motor (read: not a hard worker). Reminded me of Jeremy Lamb. I pulled their stats. Comparable all the way down (in percentages).

Lamb signed for 10,500,000 for 3 years. He was maybe a year older than Wiggins is now? But that seems about the right value.

So, to me, in order to take Wiggins into cap space, the picks must make up for $19m, $21m, and $23m over these next three years. I have no idea what type of picks carry that value, but... ouch.



Wiggins Ranking Amongst SF
FG% = 30th
3P% = 41th
2P% = 35th
2PA = 3rd
FTA = 6th
FT% = 48th
TRB = 40th
AST = 10th
STL = 57th
TOV = 5th <where higher is worse
PTS = 5th
ORtg = 46th
DRtg = 8th < where higher is worse
NRtg = 48th


Two things stick out to me that are interesting as a Warriors fan: Wiggins' ability to get to the line and his AST ranking. Both of those numbers should increase in the Warriors system. I don't trust him to ever become more than a 37% three point shooter because of the knuckling spin on his shot, but his efficiency on 2PA% will probably jump some and he'll rack up drive and kick assists when he plays with Steph and Klay.

I recently took a lot at Wiggins' stats vs Caris LaVert's and they're quite similar to each other. LaVert's highest TS% came as a rookie when he shot 56%. Since then he's done 52%, 51%, and 51%. Wiggins career TS: 52%, 54%, 53%, 50%, 49%, and 54%. Assist numbers are pretty similar with a slight advantage for LaVert, same with 3 point shooting.

But I think it's perfectly reasonable that Wiggins could get up to league average TS% next year. He shot 51% on 2's in a small sample size, but he'll have lots more opportunities to score on cuts and with clear driving lanes. If we look at the Barnes comparison, Barnes shot 53% TS as a rookie, 49% as a sophomore and then jumped up to 57% in his first year in Kerr's system. If Wiggins gets only half of that TS% increase, a 4% jump, Wiggins is up to 58% TS. Assuming he stays more or less in line with his career counting stats, his three point shot stays the same, and the main improvement for him is higher efficiency on 2PA, Wiggins could average something like 18/5/4 on 58% TS. Definitely not worth 35$ million a year, and you won't find any Warriors fan arguing that, but not a player I feel especially compelled to use assets to dump.

So what does that player get on the open market? 18/5/4 on 58% TS? $20 million? How would other people's valuations of Wiggins change if that's what he puts up next year?

I cant see this sort of stat line when hes going to be a 3rd wheel at best behind Klay/Steph
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Re: What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral? 

Post#62 » by Warriors Analyst » Fri Oct 16, 2020 6:19 pm

NoZoLakers wrote:
Warriors Analyst wrote:
cjmcallist wrote:To the OP -

I think Wiggins on the court is an actively negative player. The only contribution he seems to make on a per game basis is scoring - but that only happens at below average efficiency. Commodor and I had a discussion in another thread where I pulled these numbers for the 54 SFs last season. They're listed below.

He's a below average player, younger, athletic, with a low motor (read: not a hard worker). Reminded me of Jeremy Lamb. I pulled their stats. Comparable all the way down (in percentages).

Lamb signed for 10,500,000 for 3 years. He was maybe a year older than Wiggins is now? But that seems about the right value.

So, to me, in order to take Wiggins into cap space, the picks must make up for $19m, $21m, and $23m over these next three years. I have no idea what type of picks carry that value, but... ouch.



Wiggins Ranking Amongst SF
FG% = 30th
3P% = 41th
2P% = 35th
2PA = 3rd
FTA = 6th
FT% = 48th
TRB = 40th
AST = 10th
STL = 57th
TOV = 5th <where higher is worse
PTS = 5th
ORtg = 46th
DRtg = 8th < where higher is worse
NRtg = 48th


Two things stick out to me that are interesting as a Warriors fan: Wiggins' ability to get to the line and his AST ranking. Both of those numbers should increase in the Warriors system. I don't trust him to ever become more than a 37% three point shooter because of the knuckling spin on his shot, but his efficiency on 2PA% will probably jump some and he'll rack up drive and kick assists when he plays with Steph and Klay.

I recently took a lot at Wiggins' stats vs Caris LaVert's and they're quite similar to each other. LaVert's highest TS% came as a rookie when he shot 56%. Since then he's done 52%, 51%, and 51%. Wiggins career TS: 52%, 54%, 53%, 50%, 49%, and 54%. Assist numbers are pretty similar with a slight advantage for LaVert, same with 3 point shooting.

But I think it's perfectly reasonable that Wiggins could get up to league average TS% next year. He shot 51% on 2's in a small sample size, but he'll have lots more opportunities to score on cuts and with clear driving lanes. If we look at the Barnes comparison, Barnes shot 53% TS as a rookie, 49% as a sophomore and then jumped up to 57% in his first year in Kerr's system. If Wiggins gets only half of that TS% increase, a 4% jump, Wiggins is up to 58% TS. Assuming he stays more or less in line with his career counting stats, his three point shot stays the same, and the main improvement for him is higher efficiency on 2PA, Wiggins could average something like 18/5/4 on 58% TS. Definitely not worth 35$ million a year, and you won't find any Warriors fan arguing that, but not a player I feel especially compelled to use assets to dump.

So what does that player get on the open market? 18/5/4 on 58% TS? $20 million? How would other people's valuations of Wiggins change if that's what he puts up next year?

I cant see this sort of stat line when hes going to be a 3rd wheel at best behind Klay/Steph


There's a lot of shots to be had right now. Wiggins is gonna be eating up minutes that were once played by KD/Livingston/Iguodala. I'd be shocked if he averages less than 18ppg, the question is what his percentages are.
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Re: What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral? 

Post#63 » by Texas Chuck » Fri Oct 16, 2020 6:28 pm

Warriors Analyst wrote:
There's a lot of shots to be had right now. Wiggins is gonna be eating up minutes that were once played by KD/Livingston/Iguodala. I'd be shocked if he averages less than 18ppg, the question is what his percentages are.


Does this mean you see the Warriors just drafting at 2, trying to sign some cheap ring chaser type vets and running with that?
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Re: What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral? 

Post#64 » by Vae Victus » Fri Oct 16, 2020 6:30 pm

Quick question. Who’s got more negative value atm, Wiggins or Blake Griffin?
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Re: What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral? 

Post#65 » by skones » Fri Oct 16, 2020 6:40 pm

Vae Victus wrote:Quick question. Who’s got more negative value atm, Wiggins or Blake Griffin?


Wiggins.

Griffin for me with two years remaining is neutral. That's not to stop a team from making Detroit think otherwise and pulling extra value in a deal.
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Re: What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral? 

Post#66 » by Warriors Analyst » Fri Oct 16, 2020 6:50 pm

Texas Chuck wrote:
Warriors Analyst wrote:
There's a lot of shots to be had right now. Wiggins is gonna be eating up minutes that were once played by KD/Livingston/Iguodala. I'd be shocked if he averages less than 18ppg, the question is what his percentages are.


Does this mean you see the Warriors just drafting at 2, trying to sign some cheap ring chaser type vets and running with that?


Personally, I'd like the Warriors to trade out of #2 for a high impact guy like Myles Turner -- #2 signed to his deal + Poole, Looney + maybe another pick works financially and Indiana doesn't have to take Wiggins' money -- or trade down/pick swap and pick up an asset like Oubre/Smart/Mitchell Robinson. Wiseman doesn't really interest me because we'd still need a vet C. Advija I'd be all in favor of if not for the free throw shooting issues, which means he'd have to be a historical level outlier to become a good shooter. I like Vassell, but the Fultz'ing he's done to his shot is concerning.

I'm fine with trading Wiggins if it can be done with a clear path to a third option as well as someone who can soak up lots of minutes at the 3 and spend time harassing small ball handlers. Until Wiggins proves he can be a good player, his value right now to me is a bit like a 5th starter in baseball, say someone like Jeff Samdarzja. Until this year when Samardzja fell off a huge cliff, his biggest value to the Giants was that he ate up innings and kept them from having to go deep in the bullpen every fifth night. Soaking up innings is basically what Harrison Barnes did for us -- albeit with different responsibilities (which I'll address a bit later on) -- that's what Glenn Robinson III did pretty well in a half-season.

My view on Wiggins and adding to this team is that the Warriors have gone pretty far with some pretty mediocre complimentary players in the past. Livingston the last two years was pretty bad, McKinnie is just barely in the league, Jerebko is out of the league, Quinn Cook is a victory cigar in LA. The bar for Wiggins to clear is pretty low in my eyes. League average TS% should be easily attainable for him next to Steph and Klay. I don't think he's gonna be a world-beater next year, but he's going to have chances to feast as a cutter and he's going to have clear driving lanes when he gets the ball on the move. That alone should bump up his efficiency a little bit.

When I think of what doomed us in the 2019 Finals and the inability of any player not named Steph/Klay to create a shot for themselves, that's where I see Wiggins being useful. Of course, I don't want him to be our go-to option in crunch time, but I can see a world where Wiggins gets to the hoop or kicks out to a shooter in crunch time because he has the weakest wing defender on him while Steph and Klay spread the floor and create havoc off-ball. Someone like Harrison Barnes couldn't do that, even if he gave us league average TS% and solid defense at the 4.

Wiggins is a clear downgrade from KD/Iguodala, but he'll be better than Livingston was last year and I think there's a real chance our bench is better than it's been since the 2015/2016 run. Paschall and Damion Lee both would have been clear upgrades on McKinnie/Jerebko/Cook. Chriss, if he doesn't start, would be an upgrade offensively on Javale/Cousins. With the MLE, if we can get someone like Baynes, JaMychal Green, Kent Bazemore or the like, that's a pretty solid bench to add to what we have as well as the #2. Do I think we can and should try and do better than that? Yeah, that's why I'd prefer to use the #2 to pick swap or trade for a good player, but that's clearly not possible with Wiggins in any deal because his value is rightfully negative.

But Chuck, to my earlier question, what do you see Wiggins' value on the open market if he gives the Warriors 18/5/4 next year on 57% TS? How much easier do you think it becomes to trade him? I look at that as a pretty attainable expectation for him to meet next year. Obviously you can't ignore the bad Minnesota years, but I imagine that performance is easier to swallow in a trade after his contract is a year shorter.
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Re: What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral? 

Post#67 » by Texas Chuck » Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:10 pm

Warriors Analyst wrote:But Chuck, to my earlier question, what do you see Wiggins' value on the open market if he gives the Warriors 18/5/4 next year on 57% TS? How much easier do you think it becomes to trade him? I look at that as a pretty attainable expectation for him to meet next year. Obviously you can't ignore the bad Minnesota years, but I imagine that performance is easier to swallow in a trade after his contract is a year shorter.


If the Warriors can bring him up to being an at or above league average efficiency player who provides decent secondary playmaking and while you didn't mention it, I'll assume isn't a turnstyle defensively obviously his negative value decreases along with as you point out a year falling off. If that efficiency comes from better 3 pt shooting as opposed to lessor volume and feeding on layups created by Steph/Draymond it helps even more. Not sure that latter scenario is likely though.

Wings who can play are always in some demand and a 2 year commitment of a guy who just demonstrated he could be a solid starter on a competitive team wouldn't be nearly as unattractive. I think that player combined with a Wolves pick that was somewhere in the middle of the lottery would allow the Warriors to get back a pretty good player.

Where you and I disagree is how likely it is that he achieves that. I can accept that the Warriors probably have a better player development staff, I definitely accept that Kerr and staff are better than Thibs/Saunders in terms of making better use out of his strengths and minimizing his weakness. I agree that Steph and Draymond are better leaders to hold him accountable than Towns or that year of Butler who had the right message but the wrong delivery.

So I would expect some improvement. But we have a lot of resume on Wiggins already and we've seen very little growth. His draw rate has decreased quite a bit which is actually concerning, but his shooting numbers outside of the paint haven't shown improvement over his career, his defense hasn't shown any improvement, his rebounding no improvement--tho he is a better defensive rebounder and worse offensive rebounder which is the direction I'd prefer to see. His real growth has been as a passer, but I wouldn't say he's become a good passer just a better one.

I just don't know that I believe this guy is going to suddenly become a different guy, and then to what degree is he actually capable of being that guy if the Warriors are able to get through to him.

But understand your circumstances I think he would have similar value to a Harrison Barnes even as they are pretty different as players. Useful players with good size who play a position of scarcity who you wish made a bit less and had a shorter deal, but that your team could live with on the court.
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Re: What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral? 

Post#68 » by patman66 » Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:17 pm

It is not about the warriors dumping wiggins like he was a drug addict that beat up his wife. It is about dumping his salary. It is just hard to fathom that the team is ok paying an extra 50 mil a year in salary and taxes to keep him on the team.

Or when trades to a team in the same tax situation like the celts or 76ers that he should be valued as a 32 mill player and not a 50 mill player after tax.
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Re: What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral? 

Post#69 » by Warriors Analyst » Fri Oct 16, 2020 8:36 pm

Texas Chuck wrote:
Warriors Analyst wrote:But Chuck, to my earlier question, what do you see Wiggins' value on the open market if he gives the Warriors 18/5/4 next year on 57% TS? How much easier do you think it becomes to trade him? I look at that as a pretty attainable expectation for him to meet next year. Obviously you can't ignore the bad Minnesota years, but I imagine that performance is easier to swallow in a trade after his contract is a year shorter.


If the Warriors can bring him up to being an at or above league average efficiency player who provides decent secondary playmaking and while you didn't mention it, I'll assume isn't a turnstyle defensively obviously his negative value decreases along with as you point out a year falling off. If that efficiency comes from better 3 pt shooting as opposed to lessor volume and feeding on layups created by Steph/Draymond it helps even more. Not sure that latter scenario is likely though.

Wings who can play are always in some demand and a 2 year commitment of a guy who just demonstrated he could be a solid starter on a competitive team wouldn't be nearly as unattractive. I think that player combined with a Wolves pick that was somewhere in the middle of the lottery would allow the Warriors to get back a pretty good player.

Where you and I disagree is how likely it is that he achieves that. I can accept that the Warriors probably have a better player development staff, I definitely accept that Kerr and staff are better than Thibs/Saunders in terms of making better use out of his strengths and minimizing his weakness. I agree that Steph and Draymond are better leaders to hold him accountable than Towns or that year of Butler who had the right message but the wrong delivery.

So I would expect some improvement. But we have a lot of resume on Wiggins already and we've seen very little growth. His draw rate has decreased quite a bit which is actually concerning, but his shooting numbers outside of the paint haven't shown improvement over his career, his defense hasn't shown any improvement, his rebounding no improvement--tho he is a better defensive rebounder and worse offensive rebounder which is the direction I'd prefer to see. His real growth has been as a passer, but I wouldn't say he's become a good passer just a better one.

I just don't know that I believe this guy is going to suddenly become a different guy, and then to what degree is he actually capable of being that guy if the Warriors are able to get through to him.

But understand your circumstances I think he would have similar value to a Harrison Barnes even as they are pretty different as players. Useful players with good size who play a position of scarcity who you wish made a bit less and had a shorter deal, but that your team could live with on the court.


Ok, so seems we're mostly on the same page. I'm with you on being skeptical that his 3 point shot turns around. I'd be thrilled with 37%, but his form doesn't seem conducive to that.

I think we can both agree it's practically a given that the 2PA efficiency increases in the Warrior system and that the 3 point shooting will remain inconsistent. I'm more inclined to believe that Wiggins can be neutral defender for the Warriors as a point of attack ball-hawk.

Early on in Klay's career, he was a spacey and sometimes disinterested offball defender and so the Warriors stuck him on point guards and made use of his length and lateral mobility to have him harass point guards. I think most people would agree that Klay is quite good at that role, but defensive impact stats have never loved him. I think that's in large part because Klay has a low amount of stocks and because he doesn't get a lot of defensive rebounds, which I think is role dependent -- he is most useful in transition running out on the wing and not with the ball in his hand, so why have him chase boards.

But to bring it back to Wiggins, Klay mostly graded out as a neutral, if slightly positive defender per most impact stats doing the ball-hawk thing. If Wiggins is engaged, which is the humongous if, he has the physical talents to make him even more effective than Klay was as a ball-hawk. At the very least, it's a good way to force Wiggins into being present and having to exert himself on defense. But the (rightful) doubts of Wiggins' drive and ability to give consistent effort are good reason for the Warriors to grab another wing or two. I'm hoping Wiggins commits to playing hard, but if he doesn't, I'd imagine Kerr is fine with benching him because we don't have the same and institutional and emotional investment in him seeing as he wasn't our #1 pick and we aren't relying on him to turn around our franchise.
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Re: What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral? 

Post#70 » by Texas Chuck » Fri Oct 16, 2020 8:51 pm

Warriors Analyst wrote:Early on in Klay's career, he was a spacey and sometimes disinterested offball defender and so the Warriors stuck him on point guards and made use of his length and lateral mobility to have him harass point guards.
.



A tidbit like this tossed into a totally unrelated discussion is one of the beautiful gifts this board sometimes surprises us with. I had always heard the narrative that the reason Klay often defended opposing PG's was because Curry often struggled to do so but also just to save his energy for offense.

Interesting to hear that in fact it may have been an effort to get the best out of Klay. I'm glad you shared this because I had never heard this version of events.



I also agree that in theory giving Wiggins a man assignment where he is on-ball a greater frequency of the time is probably the best bet. He clearly has physical tools that would allow him to be a solid defender but its his mental awareness and lack of effort that have really hindered him and that's certainly exposed far more off-ball.


But I'll still admit to being on Team Trade Wiggins. :D
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Re: What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral? 

Post#71 » by Warriors Analyst » Fri Oct 16, 2020 8:59 pm

Texas Chuck wrote:
Warriors Analyst wrote:Early on in Klay's career, he was a spacey and sometimes disinterested offball defender and so the Warriors stuck him on point guards and made use of his length and lateral mobility to have him harass point guards.
.



A tidbit like this tossed into a totally unrelated discussion is one of the beautiful gifts this board sometimes surprises us with. I had always heard the narrative that the reason Klay often defended opposing PG's was because Curry often struggled to do so but also just to save his energy for offense.

Interesting to hear that in fact it may have been an effort to get the best out of Klay. I'm glad you shared this because I had never heard this version of events.



I also agree that in theory giving Wiggins a man assignment where he is on-ball a greater frequency of the time is probably the best bet. He clearly has physical tools that would allow him to be a solid defender but its his mental awareness and lack of effort that have really hindered him and that's certainly exposed far more off-ball.


But I'll still admit to being on Team Trade Wiggins. :D


That fact gets brought up a lot on the Warriors board when discussing Wiggins and his role next year, if he's still on the team. In my opinion, it's probably one of the arguments in favor of Wiggins. It's unreasonable to expect Klay to do that 82 games a year coming off of an ACL tear, so it's really important to have someone who can.

I get why you're in favor of trading Wiggins, but as I said before, I'm not inclined to do it AND give up assets to do so unless there's a clear path to getting a 3rd option and a defensive ballhawk. Dinwiddie / Prince / picks deals are probably the kind I'm most inclined towards.
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Re: What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral? 

Post#72 » by Xman » Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:17 pm

Really not much to do due to salary restrictions. Wiggins is a plus for GS because salary is overloaded anyway (unless owner decides to save money). The ONLY plausible deal I could see is Washington because Wall also has three years left and can ride out both contracts together.
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Re: What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral? 

Post#73 » by nolang1 » Fri Oct 16, 2020 11:32 pm

Warriors Analyst wrote:
Texas Chuck wrote:
Warriors Analyst wrote:Early on in Klay's career, he was a spacey and sometimes disinterested offball defender and so the Warriors stuck him on point guards and made use of his length and lateral mobility to have him harass point guards.
.



A tidbit like this tossed into a totally unrelated discussion is one of the beautiful gifts this board sometimes surprises us with. I had always heard the narrative that the reason Klay often defended opposing PG's was because Curry often struggled to do so but also just to save his energy for offense.

Interesting to hear that in fact it may have been an effort to get the best out of Klay. I'm glad you shared this because I had never heard this version of events.



I also agree that in theory giving Wiggins a man assignment where he is on-ball a greater frequency of the time is probably the best bet. He clearly has physical tools that would allow him to be a solid defender but its his mental awareness and lack of effort that have really hindered him and that's certainly exposed far more off-ball.


But I'll still admit to being on Team Trade Wiggins. :D


That fact gets brought up a lot on the Warriors board when discussing Wiggins and his role next year, if he's still on the team. In my opinion, it's probably one of the arguments in favor of Wiggins. It's unreasonable to expect Klay to do that 82 games a year coming off of an ACL tear, so it's really important to have someone who can.

I get why you're in favor of trading Wiggins, but as I said before, I'm not inclined to do it AND give up assets to do so unless there's a clear path to getting a 3rd option and a defensive ballhawk. Dinwiddie / Prince / picks deals are probably the kind I'm most inclined towards.


It also works in Wiggins' favor on the other side of the ball, where Wiggins has been inefficient as a #1 option but would cook you if you tried to hide a Dame/Kemba type of player on him in order to put a wing on Steph.
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Re: What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral? 

Post#74 » by nolang1 » Fri Oct 16, 2020 11:34 pm

Warriors Analyst wrote:
Texas Chuck wrote:
Warriors Analyst wrote:Early on in Klay's career, he was a spacey and sometimes disinterested offball defender and so the Warriors stuck him on point guards and made use of his length and lateral mobility to have him harass point guards.
.



A tidbit like this tossed into a totally unrelated discussion is one of the beautiful gifts this board sometimes surprises us with. I had always heard the narrative that the reason Klay often defended opposing PG's was because Curry often struggled to do so but also just to save his energy for offense.

Interesting to hear that in fact it may have been an effort to get the best out of Klay. I'm glad you shared this because I had never heard this version of events.



I also agree that in theory giving Wiggins a man assignment where he is on-ball a greater frequency of the time is probably the best bet. He clearly has physical tools that would allow him to be a solid defender but its his mental awareness and lack of effort that have really hindered him and that's certainly exposed far more off-ball.


But I'll still admit to being on Team Trade Wiggins. :D


That fact gets brought up a lot on the Warriors board when discussing Wiggins and his role next year, if he's still on the team. In my opinion, it's probably one of the arguments in favor of Wiggins. It's unreasonable to expect Klay to do that 82 games a year coming off of an ACL tear, so it's really important to have someone who can.

I get why you're in favor of trading Wiggins, but as I said before, I'm not inclined to do it AND give up assets to do so unless there's a clear path to getting a 3rd option and a defensive ballhawk. Dinwiddie / Prince / picks deals are probably the kind I'm most inclined towards.


It also works in Wiggins' favor on the other side of the ball, where he's been inefficient as a #1 option for most of his career but would cook teams that try to hide their worst perimeter defender on him.
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Re: What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral? 

Post#75 » by HartfordWhalers » Fri Oct 16, 2020 11:42 pm

nolang1 wrote:
It also works in Wiggins' favor on the other side of the ball, where he's been inefficient as a #1 option for most of his career but would cook teams that try to hide their worst perimeter defender on him.


Not speaking about Wiggins, but the evidence for this is really small. The players that take inefficient shots as first options tend to take the exact same shots as 2nd and 3rd options, as a general rule has been my experience.

Speaking about Wiggins specifically, he should never have been viewed as a first option above Towns. If there is an argument that he actually was, it is an argument that he doesn't know when to defer and have a better shot happen.
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Re: What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral? 

Post#76 » by psman2 » Fri Oct 16, 2020 11:46 pm

nolang1 wrote:
Warriors Analyst wrote:
Texas Chuck wrote:

A tidbit like this tossed into a totally unrelated discussion is one of the beautiful gifts this board sometimes surprises us with. I had always heard the narrative that the reason Klay often defended opposing PG's was because Curry often struggled to do so but also just to save his energy for offense.

Interesting to hear that in fact it may have been an effort to get the best out of Klay. I'm glad you shared this because I had never heard this version of events.



I also agree that in theory giving Wiggins a man assignment where he is on-ball a greater frequency of the time is probably the best bet. He clearly has physical tools that would allow him to be a solid defender but its his mental awareness and lack of effort that have really hindered him and that's certainly exposed far more off-ball.


But I'll still admit to being on Team Trade Wiggins. :D


That fact gets brought up a lot on the Warriors board when discussing Wiggins and his role next year, if he's still on the team. In my opinion, it's probably one of the arguments in favor of Wiggins. It's unreasonable to expect Klay to do that 82 games a year coming off of an ACL tear, so it's really important to have someone who can.

I get why you're in favor of trading Wiggins, but as I said before, I'm not inclined to do it AND give up assets to do so unless there's a clear path to getting a 3rd option and a defensive ballhawk. Dinwiddie / Prince / picks deals are probably the kind I'm most inclined towards.


It also works in Wiggins' favor on the other side of the ball, where Wiggins has been inefficient as a #1 option but would cook you if you tried to hide a Dame/Kemba type of player on him in order to put a wing on Steph.


Haven't we already seen Wiggins at the 3rd option behind Butler and Towns. TS% of .505 not very impressive that year.
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Re: What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral? 

Post#77 » by Warriors Analyst » Fri Oct 16, 2020 11:55 pm

psman2 wrote:
nolang1 wrote:
Warriors Analyst wrote:
That fact gets brought up a lot on the Warriors board when discussing Wiggins and his role next year, if he's still on the team. In my opinion, it's probably one of the arguments in favor of Wiggins. It's unreasonable to expect Klay to do that 82 games a year coming off of an ACL tear, so it's really important to have someone who can.

I get why you're in favor of trading Wiggins, but as I said before, I'm not inclined to do it AND give up assets to do so unless there's a clear path to getting a 3rd option and a defensive ballhawk. Dinwiddie / Prince / picks deals are probably the kind I'm most inclined towards.


It also works in Wiggins' favor on the other side of the ball, where Wiggins has been inefficient as a #1 option but would cook you if you tried to hide a Dame/Kemba type of player on him in order to put a wing on Steph.


Haven't we already seen Wiggins at the 3rd option behind Butler and Towns. TS% of .505 not very impressive that year.


I didn’t see a lot of Minnesota that year but my understanding is that their offense was pretty stagnant, as if often the case on Thibs teams and Wiggins’ offfball role was mostly to stand in the corner. Whereas with the Warriors, Wiggins should get lots of cutting opportunities and he’ll probably handle the ball more than most people expect. To the idea a few posts up that Wiggins can cook smaller defenders that hide on him, yeah I’m not sure he’ll do that either. But I do think he’ll have an easier time getting to the hoop in a motion system and he’ll get cleaner looks against those smaller defenders as opposed to possessions where he attacks the mismatch from a more of a standstill.
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Re: What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral? 

Post#78 » by NoZoLakers » Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:30 am

Warriors Analyst wrote:
NoZoLakers wrote:
Warriors Analyst wrote:
Two things stick out to me that are interesting as a Warriors fan: Wiggins' ability to get to the line and his AST ranking. Both of those numbers should increase in the Warriors system. I don't trust him to ever become more than a 37% three point shooter because of the knuckling spin on his shot, but his efficiency on 2PA% will probably jump some and he'll rack up drive and kick assists when he plays with Steph and Klay.

I recently took a lot at Wiggins' stats vs Caris LaVert's and they're quite similar to each other. LaVert's highest TS% came as a rookie when he shot 56%. Since then he's done 52%, 51%, and 51%. Wiggins career TS: 52%, 54%, 53%, 50%, 49%, and 54%. Assist numbers are pretty similar with a slight advantage for LaVert, same with 3 point shooting.

But I think it's perfectly reasonable that Wiggins could get up to league average TS% next year. He shot 51% on 2's in a small sample size, but he'll have lots more opportunities to score on cuts and with clear driving lanes. If we look at the Barnes comparison, Barnes shot 53% TS as a rookie, 49% as a sophomore and then jumped up to 57% in his first year in Kerr's system. If Wiggins gets only half of that TS% increase, a 4% jump, Wiggins is up to 58% TS. Assuming he stays more or less in line with his career counting stats, his three point shot stays the same, and the main improvement for him is higher efficiency on 2PA, Wiggins could average something like 18/5/4 on 58% TS. Definitely not worth 35$ million a year, and you won't find any Warriors fan arguing that, but not a player I feel especially compelled to use assets to dump.

So what does that player get on the open market? 18/5/4 on 58% TS? $20 million? How would other people's valuations of Wiggins change if that's what he puts up next year?

I cant see this sort of stat line when hes going to be a 3rd wheel at best behind Klay/Steph


There's a lot of shots to be had right now. Wiggins is gonna be eating up minutes that were once played by KD/Livingston/Iguodala. I'd be shocked if he averages less than 18ppg, the question is what his percentages are.

that statline is pretty much what Wiggins avg as a #1/#2 in Minn, dont see how you can still expect same #s with just a slight dip in ppg
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Re: What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral? 

Post#79 » by cookiies » Sat Oct 17, 2020 1:49 am

1. according to CAMELO(fivethirtyeight)
his category average starter 5year market value: $66.5
I AGREE $13M~18M+(5M)
Wiggins great tank commander because durability. great personality


2. wiggins+pick
:noway: :banghead: :crazy: : MIL, TOR, BOS, MIA, BRK, LAL, LAC, DEN, HOU, DAL, POR, PHO MIN, MEM

:argue: : IND, WAS, CHI, NYK, ATL, OKC, UTA(gobert,bogdan) NOP, PHI(hoford)

:nod: :lol: :D : ORL(vucevic,ross,aminu,gordon), CHO(Batum,rozier), DET(griffin,rose,snell,kennard) ,CLE(love,andre). SAS(drozan,aldridge) SAC(barnes,cory,bagley,bjelica)


3. bonus for OP
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Re: What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral? 

Post#80 » by zimpy27 » Sat Oct 17, 2020 2:26 am

Vae Victus wrote:Quick question. Who’s got more negative value atm, Wiggins or Blake Griffin?


Wiggins by far.

Blake is on 75/2 and is worth around 60/2 = $15m overpay

Wiggins is on 93/3 and is worth around 43/3 = $50m overpay

Worst contract in the league, Horford is better value than Wiggins.
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