What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral?

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Re: What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral? 

Post#81 » by shrink » Sat Oct 17, 2020 2:32 am

HartfordWhalers wrote:
nolang1 wrote:It also works in Wiggins' favor on the other side of the ball, where he's been inefficient as a #1 option for most of his career but would cook teams that try to hide their worst perimeter defender on him.


Not speaking about Wiggins, but the evidence for this is really small. The players that take inefficient shots as first options tend to take the exact same shots as 2nd and 3rd options, as a general rule has been my experience.

Speaking about Wiggins specifically, he should never have been viewed as a first option above Towns. If there is an argument that he actually was, it is an argument that he doesn't know when to defer and have a better shot happen.

Yes, and actually we have already seen him when he was supposed to be the third option, behind Towns and Jimmy Butler. What do you think Wiggins did?

When a play wasn’t run for him, he stood around in the corner, unengaged. When he got to touch the ball, he refused to give it up. He would dribble around, and at the first sign of a defender, he would jack up a contested 19 footer. In that season, he kept shooting, even when Towns was putting up ridiculous TS%, and Wiggins took away his attempts, shooting more than KAT.

But I’m sure he’s a totally new man, now that he’s got a GSW Jersey on. What does his first six years matter?
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Re: What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral? 

Post#82 » by nolang1 » Sat Oct 17, 2020 3:12 am

shrink wrote:
HartfordWhalers wrote:
nolang1 wrote:It also works in Wiggins' favor on the other side of the ball, where he's been inefficient as a #1 option for most of his career but would cook teams that try to hide their worst perimeter defender on him.


Not speaking about Wiggins, but the evidence for this is really small. The players that take inefficient shots as first options tend to take the exact same shots as 2nd and 3rd options, as a general rule has been my experience.

Speaking about Wiggins specifically, he should never have been viewed as a first option above Towns. If there is an argument that he actually was, it is an argument that he doesn't know when to defer and have a better shot happen.

Yes, and actually we have already seen him when he was supposed to be the third option, behind Towns and Jimmy Butler. What do you think Wiggins did?

When a play wasn’t run for him, he stood around in the corner, unengaged. When he got to touch the ball, he refused to give it up. He would dribble around, and at the first sign of a defender, he would jack up a contested 19 footer. In that season, he kept shooting, even when Towns was putting up ridiculous TS%, and Wiggins took away his attempts, shooting more than KAT.

But I’m sure he’s a totally new man, now that he’s got a GSW Jersey on. What does his first six years matter?


Well his first six years matter less than the first six years for most players because he's still at the age where he's likely to get better as opposed to someone who's 28 after year 6. As far as what Wiggins did in Minnesota, he was the #3 offensive option at age 22 on a team that made the playoffs in the West, which is better than what most players that age can manage.
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Re: What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral? 

Post#83 » by shrink » Sat Oct 17, 2020 3:41 am

nolang1 wrote:
shrink wrote:Yes, and actually we have already seen him when he was supposed to be the third option, behind Towns and Jimmy Butler. What do you think Wiggins did?

When a play wasn’t run for him, he stood around in the corner, unengaged. When he got to touch the ball, he refused to give it up. He would dribble around, and at the first sign of a defender, he would jack up a contested 19 footer. In that season, he kept shooting, even when Towns was putting up ridiculous TS%, and Wiggins took away his attempts, shooting more than KAT.

But I’m sure he’s a totally new man, now that he’s got a GSW Jersey on. What does his first six years matter?


Well his first six years matter less than the first six years for most players because he's still at the age where he's likely to get better as opposed to someone who's 28 after year 6. As far as what Wiggins did in Minnesota, he was the #3 offensive option at age 22 on a team that made the playoffs in the West, which is better than what most players that age can manage.

For the record, they made the playoffs in spite of him, not because of him. He had a 13.0 PER, a -2.4 BPM, and a -0.7 VORP.

And he was even worse next year. OOF.
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Re: What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral? 

Post#84 » by nolang1 » Sat Oct 17, 2020 4:52 am

shrink wrote:
nolang1 wrote:
shrink wrote:Yes, and actually we have already seen him when he was supposed to be the third option, behind Towns and Jimmy Butler. What do you think Wiggins did?

When a play wasn’t run for him, he stood around in the corner, unengaged. When he got to touch the ball, he refused to give it up. He would dribble around, and at the first sign of a defender, he would jack up a contested 19 footer. In that season, he kept shooting, even when Towns was putting up ridiculous TS%, and Wiggins took away his attempts, shooting more than KAT.

But I’m sure he’s a totally new man, now that he’s got a GSW Jersey on. What does his first six years matter?


Well his first six years matter less than the first six years for most players because he's still at the age where he's likely to get better as opposed to someone who's 28 after year 6. As far as what Wiggins did in Minnesota, he was the #3 offensive option at age 22 on a team that made the playoffs in the West, which is better than what most players that age can manage.

For the record, they made the playoffs in spite of him, not because of him. He had a 13.0 PER, a -2.4 BPM, and a -0.7 VORP.

And he was even worse next year. OOF.


I'll let you get those kind of things wrong on your own merits
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Re: What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral? 

Post#85 » by azwfan » Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:09 am

zimpy27 wrote:
Vae Victus wrote:Quick question. Who’s got more negative value atm, Wiggins or Blake Griffin?


Wiggins by far.

Blake is on 75/2 and is worth around 60/2 = $15m overpay

Wiggins is on 93/3 and is worth around 43/3 = $50m overpay

Worst contract in the league, Horford is better value than Wiggins.

You actually think Blake is worth 30m per year?!
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Re: What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral? 

Post#86 » by azwfan » Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:34 am

Houses are appraised on similar houses recently sold in the area. Luckily we have a recent trade that pegs Wiggins’ value as...

Minny 2021 1st (minimal protection) + Minny 2021 2nd + Wiggins for Russell.

We can argue about Russell’s value but we have some data for that also. GSW traded for him also.

They gave up a 2024 1st (top 4 protected) + a top 20 protected 1st (Else 2026 2nd) for the right to pay Russell his contract.

Russell = 2024 GSW 1st + 2026 GSW 2nd
Wiggins = Russell - ( 2021 Minny 1st + 2021 Minny 2nd)

Therefore:
Wiggins = (2024 GSW 1st + 2026 GSW 2nd) - (2021 Minny 1st + 2021 Minny 2nd)

So Wiggins negative value and it would take less than the 2021 Minny 1st + 2021 Minny 2nd, but more than 2024 GSW 1st + 2026 GSW 2nd to get rid of him.

Still with me?

Luckily (or unluckily) for all of us player value isnt determined by math equations. Its simply the most that any team would be willing to give up for said player (or in this case, the least they would take).

I tend to think that it my math above is fairly accurate at this point.
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Re: What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral? 

Post#87 » by Commodor » Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:44 am

azwfan wrote:
zimpy27 wrote:
Vae Victus wrote:Quick question. Who’s got more negative value atm, Wiggins or Blake Griffin?


Wiggins by far.

Blake is on 75/2 and is worth around 60/2 = $15m overpay

Wiggins is on 93/3 and is worth around 43/3 = $50m overpay

Worst contract in the league, Horford is better value than Wiggins.

You actually think Blake is worth 30m per year?!


You actually think John Wall is worth 38m per year?!
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Re: What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral? 

Post#88 » by azwfan » Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:57 pm

Commodor wrote:
azwfan wrote:
zimpy27 wrote:
Wiggins by far.

Blake is on 75/2 and is worth around 60/2 = $15m overpay

Wiggins is on 93/3 and is worth around 43/3 = $50m overpay

Worst contract in the league, Horford is better value than Wiggins.

You actually think Blake is worth 30m per year?!


You actually think John Wall is worth 38m per year?!

Didnt quite or comment on John Wall.
The individual quoted said,
“Blake...is worth about around 60/2” which i think is extremely generous considering without looking up his numbers I thought that was his numbers and considered him to be extremely overpaid. Hes just not available at all.
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Re: What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral? 

Post#89 » by Texas Chuck » Sat Oct 17, 2020 1:06 pm

nolang1 wrote:
shrink wrote:
nolang1 wrote:
Well his first six years matter less than the first six years for most players because he's still at the age where he's likely to get better as opposed to someone who's 28 after year 6. As far as what Wiggins did in Minnesota, he was the #3 offensive option at age 22 on a team that made the playoffs in the West, which is better than what most players that age can manage.

For the record, they made the playoffs in spite of him, not because of him. He had a 13.0 PER, a -2.4 BPM, and a -0.7 VORP.

And he was even worse next year. OOF.


I'll let you get those kind of things wrong on your own merits



So you are claiming Wiggins was good and helped lead the Wolves to the playoffs that year? I don't think you can justify that position.
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Re: What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral? 

Post#90 » by zimpy27 » Sat Oct 17, 2020 2:58 pm

azwfan wrote:
zimpy27 wrote:
Vae Victus wrote:Quick question. Who’s got more negative value atm, Wiggins or Blake Griffin?


Wiggins by far.

Blake is on 75/2 and is worth around 60/2 = $15m overpay

Wiggins is on 93/3 and is worth around 43/3 = $50m overpay

Worst contract in the league, Horford is better value than Wiggins.

You actually think Blake is worth 30m per year?!

Yes I definitely do. You will see it this coming season. He got his knee surgery and appears to feel better than has has for years.
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Re: What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral? 

Post#91 » by azwfan » Sat Oct 17, 2020 3:20 pm

zimpy27 wrote:
azwfan wrote:
zimpy27 wrote:
Wiggins by far.

Blake is on 75/2 and is worth around 60/2 = $15m overpay

Wiggins is on 93/3 and is worth around 43/3 = $50m overpay

Worst contract in the league, Horford is better value than Wiggins.

You actually think Blake is worth 30m per year?!

Yes I definitely do. You will see it this coming season. He got his knee surgery and appears to feel better than has has for years.

I highly disagree. If he proves me wrong by playing a full season, great for him, but I wouldnt expect him to play more than 60% of the season with a big “?” on post season availability.

If he was a FA this year i couldnt see him getting much more than 15m per year for 2 years.

Basically it would be a team gambling on him being healthy and playing 2 full(ish) seasons.
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Re: What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral? 

Post#92 » by Commodor » Sun Oct 18, 2020 6:10 pm

azwfan wrote:
Commodor wrote:
azwfan wrote:You actually think Blake is worth 30m per year?!


You actually think John Wall is worth 38m per year?!

Didnt quite or comment on John Wall.
The individual quoted said,
“Blake...is worth about around 60/2” which i think is extremely generous considering without looking up his numbers I thought that was his numbers and considered him to be extremely overpaid. Hes just not available at all.


I was commenting on worst contract in the league
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Re: What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral? 

Post#93 » by Buzzard » Sun Oct 18, 2020 6:18 pm

People keep trying to move Wiggins with #2 to get a good player back. These trades keep getting shot down because taking Wiggins without giving up anything is worth a pick. Send two picks and I think you will get GMs on bad teams to bite.

Its probably going to end up being something simple. Bledsoe, Gordon, LeVert with a late pick into the TPE and #2 out. Wiggins has zero value to anyone other than the Warriors.
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Re: What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral? 

Post#94 » by GQ Hot Dog » Sun Oct 18, 2020 6:50 pm

My position on Wiggins is pretty straightforward. He's going to be a far better player on the Warriors than he ever was with the TWolves. Borderline All-Star in fact.

Therefore, all the valuations of him on the trade board are based on outdated information and so I reject pretty much all the offers I've seen.

It's also a positional fit issue. I don't recall many/any offers that see us getting a better SF back. Even if a SF was the return I'm more interested in seeing how much better Wiggins can be with us than in getting a SF back that might be a lateral move from the player Wiggins was.

We didn't buy him low to turn around and sell him low again.
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Re: What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral? 

Post#95 » by Texas Chuck » Sun Oct 18, 2020 6:56 pm

GQ Hot Dog wrote:My position on Wiggins is pretty straightforward. He's going to be a far better player on the Warriors than he ever was with the TWolves. Borderline All-Star in fact.

Therefore, all the valuations of him on the trade board are based on outdated information and so I reject pretty much all the offers I've seen.




I had put it away, but its time to crack back out the magical 403 minutes trope again I see. It's one thing to be optimistic--but all-star seems wow.

As to this board's outdated info---I'll take teh 16,000 minute sample size over the 403 minute sample size particularly when even the 403 minute sample size was mediocre and was played on a total different roster than the one they hope to win with so not sure why its relevant but 16,000 minutes is outdated.
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Re: What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral? 

Post#96 » by kb02 » Sun Oct 18, 2020 7:02 pm

Texas Chuck wrote:
GQ Hot Dog wrote:My position on Wiggins is pretty straightforward. He's going to be a far better player on the Warriors than he ever was with the TWolves. Borderline All-Star in fact.

Therefore, all the valuations of him on the trade board are based on outdated information and so I reject pretty much all the offers I've seen.




I had put it away, but its time to crack back out the magical 403 minutes trope again I see. It's one thing to be optimistic--but all-star seems wow.

As to this board's outdated info---I'll take teh 16,000 minute sample size over the 403 minute sample size particularly when even the 403 minute sample size was mediocre and was played on a total different roster than the one they hope to win with so not sure why its relevant but 16,000 minutes is outdated.


Yea. Wiggins is soft and an empty stats dude. He goes with the flow. I haven't watched one game of Wiggins and thought this dude is impacting the game in a positive way. All the tools in the world, but dude screams someone, who plays the game because he can not because he loves it. I ain't hating. Making hundreds of millions, changed his fam's fortune 100x, secured the legacy of generations. Just won't ever hit his ceiling while laughing all the way to the bank. Rudy Gay 2.0.
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Re: What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral? 

Post#97 » by GQ Hot Dog » Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:15 pm

Texas Chuck wrote:
GQ Hot Dog wrote:My position on Wiggins is pretty straightforward. He's going to be a far better player on the Warriors than he ever was with the TWolves. Borderline All-Star in fact.

Therefore, all the valuations of him on the trade board are based on outdated information and so I reject pretty much all the offers I've seen.




I had put it away, but its time to crack back out the magical 403 minutes trope again I see. It's one thing to be optimistic--but all-star seems wow.

As to this board's outdated info---I'll take teh 16,000 minute sample size over the 403 minute sample size particularly when even the 403 minute sample size was mediocre and was played on a total different roster than the one they hope to win with so not sure why its relevant but 16,000 minutes is outdated.


Based on what I've seen since he came over and what I know of our organization I'm confident he'll significantly outplay all his prior minutes. That's my position and it informs what I think of the trade offers I've seen. There's a significant disconnect between what I believe will happen and what most other posters think will happen that only a season of Wiggins as a Warrior can possibly reconcile. So I eagerly anticipate your perception of Wiggins abilities and value this time next year.

And I believe he can be a borderline All-Star. There are All-Stars. There are players that deserve to be All-Stars, there just weren't enough spots to get them on. And there are borderline All-Stars. Those are players that are a significant step below All-Star caliber players but are a significant step above just a solid starter.
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Re: What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral? 

Post#98 » by Scoot McGroot » Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:44 pm

GQ Hot Dog wrote:
Texas Chuck wrote:
GQ Hot Dog wrote:My position on Wiggins is pretty straightforward. He's going to be a far better player on the Warriors than he ever was with the TWolves. Borderline All-Star in fact.

Therefore, all the valuations of him on the trade board are based on outdated information and so I reject pretty much all the offers I've seen.




I had put it away, but its time to crack back out the magical 403 minutes trope again I see. It's one thing to be optimistic--but all-star seems wow.

As to this board's outdated info---I'll take teh 16,000 minute sample size over the 403 minute sample size particularly when even the 403 minute sample size was mediocre and was played on a total different roster than the one they hope to win with so not sure why its relevant but 16,000 minutes is outdated.


Based on what I've seen since he came over and what I know of our organization I'm confident he'll significantly outplay all his prior minutes. That's my position and it informs what I think of the trade offers I've seen. There's a significant disconnect between what I believe will happen and what most other posters think will happen that only a season of Wiggins as a Warrior can possibly reconcile. So I eagerly anticipate your perception of Wiggins abilities and value this time next year.

And I believe he can be a borderline All-Star. There are All-Stars. There are players that deserve to be All-Stars, there just weren't enough spots to get them on. And there are borderline All-Stars. Those are players that are a significant step below All-Star caliber players but are a significant step above just a solid starter.



What have you seen from Wiggins since the trade that no one else has?
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Re: What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral? 

Post#99 » by drosereturn » Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:49 pm

So Wiggs is a poor mans Barnes if anyone watched followed them both. And I consider Barnes to be neutral starting from this yr where he will get paid 20 a yr. Warriors basically admitted Wiggs best case is Barnes and even then hes grossly overpaid.
Being paid at least more than 10 per yr is huge in that your wasting 6moy caliber player with that opportunity cost.

I think a 17mil tpe and 21 own pick is minimum to consider him neutral along with paschall, young core.
The fact that he is owned 3 yrs makes him one of the worst deals compared to Blake or Paul who are giant expirings.
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Re: What Makes Andrew Wiggins Neutral? 

Post#100 » by Texas Chuck » Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:54 pm

GQ Hot Dog wrote:[So I eagerly anticipate your perception of Wiggins abilities and value this time next year.


I have strong opinions.

But I have always owned when I get things terribly wrong. So if Wiggins is a top 40 player next year I will eat all the crow you want to serve up.

Hope you do the same when he inevitably gets traded or when he's the same guy he's always been even in the Bay. :D
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