Orlando/GS (yes it involves #2)

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Re: Orlando/GS (yes it involves #2) 

Post#21 » by HartfordWhalers » Sun Oct 18, 2020 5:05 pm

Buzzard wrote:
HartfordWhalers wrote:
Yeah, I've been trying for an hour to find a realistic Ross trade that get Orlando good assets and I'm not convinced of one.

Ross into TPE for 2021 GSW lottery protected 1st.

Given the tax hit of this, I don't see GS considering it. Ross doesn't move the needle compared to that cost.

Buzzard wrote:Ross for Ersan/Wilson/1st
This seems the best possible scenario to me, but also one I think Milwaukee passes on. Taking on the long money and giving out a first is using their two avenues up while not addressing their issues.

Buzzard wrote:These are not trades that have to be done at this draft. Once teams have their rosters full and more contracts it will be easier. Ross being moved at this seasons deadline would be no different than Clarkson or Beasley when they were moved. When I say a pick for a player, I am not just talking in terms of 2020 picks.


Look at those scenarios.
Utah moved off multiple years of bad salary (Exum) for 2 2nds while getting an expiring.
Minnesota got 2 semi promising guys about to be rfa's for a late 1st.

Ross is worth less than Beasley (and Juancho) and I think your trade highlight he looks a lot more like a guy moved for a pair of 2nds far more than a 1st (regardless of what year).
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Re: Orlando/GS (yes it involves #2) 

Post#22 » by Buzzard » Sun Oct 18, 2020 5:11 pm

HartfordWhalers wrote:
Buzzard wrote:
HartfordWhalers wrote:
Fully disagree.

Teams that fail to accurately assess where they are is one of the biggest reasons why bad teams stay bad. Continually doing one year deals when they need a 3-4 year bottom out; but selling themselves that in just a year they will be better, they already are better and just need Dedmon type roll players etc.

But yeah, drafting say Bagley instead of Luka can definitely be reason for teams staying bad. I would have the draft as one of the top two. But absolutely not retaining flexibility.

Disagree man. Being stuck with Wiggins is a horrible plan unless they add a lot more than just one pick. If they miss on #2 and are stuck with Wiggins, its a nightmare. More ammo is needed for these players and cap that are being sent out.

Think Batum with Charlotte and you can easily see my point. The Hornets have been trying to recover from that one contract for multiple seasons. Wiggins, Gordon, Fournier adds up to two picks minimum; I would press for three.


That really isn't what has happened to Charlotte. They were a playoff team when they signed Batum, not a bad team. And they would have been a bad team the past two years even with the cap room of Batum instead of his contract, although obviously that cap room has considerable value.

But yeah, if you go by Charlotte they took a 1 year good run and decided to go all in and it turns out that both how they went all in as well as the rest of their team did not merit it. I definitely have it a failure to understand just how good (or bad) their team is, versus a failure to sign 1 year deals.

They had Kemba on a 12 million a year contract when they made that signing. It shows how a bad contract can hamper a team. Instead of being flexible they were hogtied and barely making the playoffs when they did. Most years they did not make the playoffs but could not do anything about it. Just run it out again until they finally ran their only good player off.
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Re: Orlando/GS (yes it involves #2) 

Post#23 » by Xman » Sun Oct 18, 2020 5:15 pm

I like the idea of Fournier fitting into the TPE. I do not like the idea of Wiggins being moved - he is a huge negative to any team except for GS where he only costs $$.
Fournier's shooting would fit well in GS.
I think Bamba's potential as a 3&D center would be perfect fit in GS.

Deal 1 - (cannot combine TPE with outgoing players): Fournier for #2.
Deal 2 - Bamba for Minny 2021, GS scrub salaries.

GS would have a big lineup of curry/klay/wiggins/green/bamba and small lineup of curry/klay/fournier/wiggins/green. Scary.
ORL could add Edwards (might not want to add Wiseman due to Vuc or Lamelo due to Fultz). Or, could add a third trade - Gordon+2021 Minny+#13 for #1 and JJo. Not sure ORL would want both top picks - I think Wiseman/Lamelo/Isaac (and maybe Okeke if you remember him) would be strong to build around but what could you get for Vuc and Fultz?
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Re: Orlando/GS (yes it involves #2) 

Post#24 » by HartfordWhalers » Sun Oct 18, 2020 5:16 pm

Buzzard wrote:
HartfordWhalers wrote:
Buzzard wrote:Disagree man. Being stuck with Wiggins is a horrible plan unless they add a lot more than just one pick. If they miss on #2 and are stuck with Wiggins, its a nightmare. More ammo is needed for these players and cap that are being sent out.

Think Batum with Charlotte and you can easily see my point. The Hornets have been trying to recover from that one contract for multiple seasons. Wiggins, Gordon, Fournier adds up to two picks minimum; I would press for three.


That really isn't what has happened to Charlotte. They were a playoff team when they signed Batum, not a bad team. And they would have been a bad team the past two years even with the cap room of Batum instead of his contract, although obviously that cap room has considerable value.

But yeah, if you go by Charlotte they took a 1 year good run and decided to go all in and it turns out that both how they went all in as well as the rest of their team did not merit it. I definitely have it a failure to understand just how good (or bad) their team is, versus a failure to sign 1 year deals.

They had Kemba on a 12 million a year contract when they made that signing. It shows how a bad contract can hamper a team. Instead of being flexible they were hogtied and barely making the playoffs when they did. Most years they did not make the playoffs but could not do anything about it. Just run it out again until they finally ran their only good player off.


Look back at the Hornets the first year after signing Batum. He was their second best player, and I don't think that is in debate. He absolutely gave them roughly what was expected. The rest of the team did not, and they had gone all in on a mirage team. And so a team trying to treadmill as a 45 win team ended up treadmilling at 10 wins less... and then drafted poorly.
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Re: Orlando/GS (yes it involves #2) 

Post#25 » by Buzzard » Sun Oct 18, 2020 5:32 pm

HartfordWhalers wrote:
Buzzard wrote:
HartfordWhalers wrote:
That really isn't what has happened to Charlotte. They were a playoff team when they signed Batum, not a bad team. And they would have been a bad team the past two years even with the cap room of Batum instead of his contract, although obviously that cap room has considerable value.

But yeah, if you go by Charlotte they took a 1 year good run and decided to go all in and it turns out that both how they went all in as well as the rest of their team did not merit it. I definitely have it a failure to understand just how good (or bad) their team is, versus a failure to sign 1 year deals.

They had Kemba on a 12 million a year contract when they made that signing. It shows how a bad contract can hamper a team. Instead of being flexible they were hogtied and barely making the playoffs when they did. Most years they did not make the playoffs but could not do anything about it. Just run it out again until they finally ran their only good player off.


Look back at the Hornets the first year after signing Batum. He was their second best player, and I don't think that is in debate. He absolutely gave them roughly what was expected. The rest of the team did not, and they had gone all in on a mirage team. And so a team trying to treadmill as a 45 win team ended up treadmilling at 10 wins less... and then drafted poorly.

It was a bad signing and that is no different than trading for a bad signing.
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Re: Orlando/GS (yes it involves #2) 

Post#26 » by HartfordWhalers » Sun Oct 18, 2020 5:46 pm

Buzzard wrote:
HartfordWhalers wrote:
Buzzard wrote:They had Kemba on a 12 million a year contract when they made that signing. It shows how a bad contract can hamper a team. Instead of being flexible they were hogtied and barely making the playoffs when they did. Most years they did not make the playoffs but could not do anything about it. Just run it out again until they finally ran their only good player off.


Look back at the Hornets the first year after signing Batum. He was their second best player, and I don't think that is in debate. He absolutely gave them roughly what was expected. The rest of the team did not, and they had gone all in on a mirage team. And so a team trying to treadmill as a 45 win team ended up treadmilling at 10 wins less... and then drafted poorly.

It was a bad signing and that is no different than trading for a bad signing.


No one has said it wasn't a bad signing. But the question was why. It was a bad signing not because they gave up flexibility 4 years later. It was a bad signing because they gave up flexibility 4 years later to be as good as possible of a 35-39 win team thinking they would be better than that. They missed understanding how good that team was. If they had been a real solid playoff team already, it would have been fine. Batum's production hasn't been awful over the life of the deal, even if he is washed up now. He was 2nd best player, 2-3rd best, and then an okay starter in his first three years. That isn't really off what was expected of Batum. The rest of the team was just worse than expected, and that left them in no man's land too bad for playoffs too good for a top pick.
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Re: Orlando/GS (yes it involves #2) 

Post#27 » by Buzzard » Sun Oct 18, 2020 6:01 pm

HartfordWhalers wrote:
Buzzard wrote:
HartfordWhalers wrote:
Look back at the Hornets the first year after signing Batum. He was their second best player, and I don't think that is in debate. He absolutely gave them roughly what was expected. The rest of the team did not, and they had gone all in on a mirage team. And so a team trying to treadmill as a 45 win team ended up treadmilling at 10 wins less... and then drafted poorly.

It was a bad signing and that is no different than trading for a bad signing.


No one has said it wasn't a bad signing. But the question was why. It was a bad signing not because they gave up flexibility 4 years later. It was a bad signing because they gave up flexibility 4 years later to be as good as possible of a 35-39 win team thinking they would be better than that. They missed understanding how good that team was. If they had been a real solid playoff team already, it would have been fine. Batum's production hasn't been awful over the life of the deal, even if he is washed up now. He was 2nd best player, 2-3rd best, and then an okay starter in his first three years. That isn't really off what was expected of Batum. The rest of the team was just worse than expected, and that left them in no man's land too bad for playoffs too good for a top pick.

Batum has made:
20, 22, 24, 25, and will make 27 million this year.
He has scored:
15.1, 11.6, 9.3, and now 3.6 points per game over the 1st four years of that contract. 15.1 points was tops, surely you get that was a bad signing.
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Re: Orlando/GS (yes it involves #2) 

Post#28 » by HartfordWhalers » Sun Oct 18, 2020 6:04 pm

Buzzard wrote:
HartfordWhalers wrote:
Buzzard wrote:It was a bad signing and that is no different than trading for a bad signing.


No one has said it wasn't a bad signing. But the question was why. It was a bad signing not because they gave up flexibility 4 years later. It was a bad signing because they gave up flexibility 4 years later to be as good as possible of a 35-39 win team thinking they would be better than that. They missed understanding how good that team was. If they had been a real solid playoff team already, it would have been fine. Batum's production hasn't been awful over the life of the deal, even if he is washed up now. He was 2nd best player, 2-3rd best, and then an okay starter in his first three years. That isn't really off what was expected of Batum. The rest of the team was just worse than expected, and that left them in no man's land too bad for playoffs too good for a top pick.

Batum has made:
20, 22, 24, 25, and will make 27 million this year.
He has scored:
15.1, 11.6, 9.3, and now 3.6 points per game over the 1st four years of that contract. 15.1 points was tops, surely you get that was a bad signing.

I don't think you read my comment. If you did, you completely failed to respond to any of it. I've done this before, so I will just say Enjoy your day
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Re: Orlando/GS (yes it involves #2) 

Post#29 » by Buzzard » Sun Oct 18, 2020 6:07 pm

HartfordWhalers wrote:
Buzzard wrote:
HartfordWhalers wrote:
No one has said it wasn't a bad signing. But the question was why. It was a bad signing not because they gave up flexibility 4 years later. It was a bad signing because they gave up flexibility 4 years later to be as good as possible of a 35-39 win team thinking they would be better than that. They missed understanding how good that team was. If they had been a real solid playoff team already, it would have been fine. Batum's production hasn't been awful over the life of the deal, even if he is washed up now. He was 2nd best player, 2-3rd best, and then an okay starter in his first three years. That isn't really off what was expected of Batum. The rest of the team was just worse than expected, and that left them in no man's land too bad for playoffs too good for a top pick.

Batum has made:
20, 22, 24, 25, and will make 27 million this year.
He has scored:
15.1, 11.6, 9.3, and now 3.6 points per game over the 1st four years of that contract. 15.1 points was tops, surely you get that was a bad signing.

I don't think you read my comment. If you did, you completely failed to respond to any of it. I've done this before, so I will just say Enjoy your day

The why does not matter. The impact of a bad signing/contract remains the same. For a bad team it locks them in to being bad until they can move it or it comes off the books. For a good team they can still compete. See the Bucks and 76ers vs the Hornets.
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Re: Orlando/GS (yes it involves #2) 

Post#30 » by babyjax13 » Sun Oct 18, 2020 6:40 pm

I think it needs to be tweaked a bit to be:

Part 1:
Golden State trades: Wiggins
Orlando trades: Gordon, Fournier

Part 2:
Golden State trades: 2, 2021 GSW 1st, 2021 MIN 2nd
Orlando trades: Ross

Golden State then still has the Minnesota 2021 1st to build with or flip (and AG is still only 25).

Draymond/Looney/Smailagic
Gordon/Paschall/???
Fournier/Ross
Thompson/Fournier/Lee
Curry/???/Bowman

That team is nasty.
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Re: Orlando/GS (yes it involves #2) 

Post#31 » by Texas Chuck » Sun Oct 18, 2020 6:47 pm

Buzzard wrote:The why does not matter.


The why is really all that matters. We have to judge decisions in the context of which they were made not with the benefit of hindsight. It's called results oriented thinking and it will cost you failure in any area of life. And its the main reason why poker is a game of skill more than a game of chance. Good players understand sometimes you make a good decision and still lose when someone is ahead of their range or draws out. Bad players just see I cracked AA with 64o so I'm going to keep making loose calls hoping to get lucky.

The why matters. Portland drafting Greg Oden was a good decision even though his injury derailed his career and Durant went on to have a fantastic one. They still made the right decision even though it didn't work out. Philly trading up to draft Fultz was the right decision even though it crapped out on them. Life has variance. You can't control that. You can control your decisions in real time so that is absolutely where the focus belongs.
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Re: Orlando/GS (yes it involves #2) 

Post#32 » by Skybox » Sun Oct 18, 2020 7:20 pm

I like the OP...expecting ORL to throw Ross on the pile isn't realistic. He's got real value. Fournier and Gordon will immediately and significantly contribute to GSW's ring chase. Wiseman MIGHT be great but that will likely be when GSW is rebuilding having just missed on a few rings in Steph and Klay's last years...they need to strike now! AG will look like an All-Star on that team but never will in ORL...on the other hand, I think he could replace Dray - I think Vuc is the better fit for GSW...having said all that, I take the OP for ORL but I don't apologize or feel like I stole something- Wiggins is a deep negative and a big financial risk, the guys going back are known quantities.
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Re: Orlando/GS (yes it involves #2) 

Post#33 » by Buzzard » Sun Oct 18, 2020 7:23 pm

Texas Chuck wrote:
Buzzard wrote:The why does not matter.


The why is really all that matters. We have to judge decisions in the context of which they were made not with the benefit of hindsight. It's called results oriented thinking and it will cost you failure in any area of life. And its the main reason why poker is a game of skill more than a game of chance. Good players understand sometimes you make a good decision and still lose when someone is ahead of their range or draws out. Bad players just see I cracked AA with 64o so I'm going to keep making loose calls hoping to get lucky.

The why matters. Portland drafting Greg Oden was a good decision even though his injury derailed his career and Durant went on to have a fantastic one. They still made the right decision even though it didn't work out. Philly trading up to draft Fultz was the right decision even though it crapped out on them. Life has variance. You can't control that. You can control your decisions in real time so that is absolutely where the focus belongs.

The whole context that was first replied to is bad contracts are worse for bad teams. Whether its players they sign or trade for, the impact is the same. Throwing "why" out there is just a way to spin a narrative.

Charlotte and Orlando are very comparable teams but Charlotte did have Kemba. Now some fans want to send Orlando one of the top five worse contracts in the league. Send 2020 #2 and 2021 Timberwolves 1st, that might be fair for Wiggins and what Orlando has to send back.

Anything less is highway robbery.
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Re: Orlando/GS (yes it involves #2) 

Post#34 » by HartfordWhalers » Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:03 pm

Fortunately, the actual context -- and not whatever made up spin above is -- is available 1 page back.

Bad teams need the flexibility to add a one year salary dump and a pick. Long term bad contracts take a lot of that flexibility away.


Losing flexibility isn't why bad teams are bad. Losing flexibility is worth it if done with the right goal and execution. (Versus teams like the Knicks that have stayed flexible for multiple years gaining nothing from it.)

Fully misjudging your bad team as a good team and losing flexibility to get mildly better with an end of their prime vet when even with them you are still bad is how bad teams stay bad.
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Re: Orlando/GS (yes it involves #2) 

Post#35 » by Ducklett » Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:52 pm

Could the Magic get a heavily protected GSW future first added to this deal since they have MIN's 1st 2021 or can they not trade it because the MIN pick might not convey? I think 2, Wiggins, future 1st would make me bite on this.

I am not sure that GS would want to add Ross because of tax reasons but I think Ross on a top team would be a 6th man of the year candidate easily. He has the tools.
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Re: Orlando/GS (yes it involves #2) 

Post#36 » by wolves_89 » Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:01 pm

Great deal for GS and while I personally wouldn't do it for ORL, I could see them making the trade. If the Magic did this I think they also need to move Vucevic for anything of value and try to bottom out next season. Playing whoever they pick at #2/#15 big minutes along with Fultz, Okeke, and Bamba should lead to a bottom 3 record and a pretty good pick in 2021.
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Re: Orlando/GS (yes it involves #2) 

Post#37 » by MagicMatic » Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:13 pm

My issue with all of these deals is that this particular draft is garbage. At #2 they’re overpaying for Killian Hayes in exchange for AG and Fournier.

It’s a huge risk for Orlando that they should probably begrudgingly take. If Wiggins gets injured or underperforms Orlando is sitting on dead money. If Orlando drafts a bust (likely) then they lose this trade 100% at the cost of known quantities.

Orlando needs to tank, but trading all assets away in a historically bad draft at the top, and a poison Wiggins contract, isn’t ideal.

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