Oladipo+Leaf / Huerter+Dedmon

[Scoot McGroot]

You are more an expert than I, no doubt.

Having said that, as I google, I find this kind of thing frequently in the weeks leading up to the season, and through the rest of 2019...

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2855765-victor-oladipo-looks-like-he-never-left-in-return-after-surgery-on-knee-injury



...so in some Pacers' circles, at least, there was surging optimism that he was actually going to make it back quicker than the originally projected Jan/Feb timeframe. Granted, the "official" statements were pretty consistent, "we just don't know." But there were ample other things being said by players that fueled the optimism. It didn't come out of nowhere.

Zooming back out to the larger point... there is legitimate reason to hold serve, and see what happens with Dipo which is why I come down on the side of waiting until the trade deadline... you never want to sell low before you have to sell low. And to my point, the very fact that "low" is his current status, while acknowledged as a possibility this time last year, there may have been other plans made had they known then what they know now.

Who’s Adam Wells? I guess if we go to Bleacher Report articles, we might as well cite every single poster on this forum as the universal fan viewpoint

But seriously, Pritchards voice is the one that matters and he’s usually been pretty clear and honest. Everything he said he was looking for after firing McMillan is exactly what he hired Bjorkgren for. So, if we take him at his word, he has no expectations.

I apologize if this comes off as flippant, it’s not meant to be. Mostly just, fans always have high expectations, but that doesn’t matter. What matters is the attitudes of the decision makers and they seemed pretty clear.

1) I respect your opinion more than I would any given blogger's, I assure you. I just picked one out of the links list, though, and so I'm persuaded "in some circles" there was surging optimism, even as "granted the official statements were pretty consistent," "there were ample other things being said by payers that fueled the optimism."

I appreciate that. And I get it. But again, players get excited. They love their teammates so they're excited and hopeful for their returns from something so serious. But they also don't track the rehab and long-term needs. They also don't plan the future of the roster, so Pritchard's voice is probably more important in this matter.

2) In saying "granted the official statements were pretty consistent," I meant to seem to agree with "Pritchard's voice is the one that matters"--which, of course, is an irrefutable point regardless.

3) The "to my point" comment remains seemingly a reasonable one.

4) No flippancy taken. And please grant the same as I segue out of this vein of discussion--when I find that I'm mainly just repeating myself, that's a sure sign that I've got nothing more to contribute.

Good to hear. And I try to, as well. As I typed it, I recognize it's hard to understand how something might read, and I wanted to make sure it didn't come off as rude or indignant. And after reading it again, I wasn't sure, so I just wanted to make intent clear, as is sometimes hard on internet forums. I appreciate it came off well intentioned, as have your posts.

[Scoot McGroot]

I can also see Indy moving Dipo if they are certain they will lose him as well. I look at UFA's who are determined to leave one way. They have to be traded if at all possible for some type of return. I don't think the Hawks will be the ones chasing any one year players though. They are not in a position that one player puts them in a conference final.

Boston, Dallas, 76ers, Bucks, Heat are some of those teams.

Two reasons to move Dipo:
Inside knowledge about his injury, sure. Inside knowledge between Indy and his agent, just as sure.

Oh, if his agent actually made something clear, maybe, but it would be a much better offer they’d look for than this. This is more of the “dang the quad is gone and we gotta dump him ASAP type offer”.

Otherwise, Pritchard took his time with the Paul George situation and got what he viewed as the most valuable package. And in hindsight with the reports, he was right. I’d imagine he’d do the same here in taking his time.

Comparing George to Oladipo is a pretty big stretch. The year George was traded he was coming off his best season ever. Including better than anything he had done pre-injury.

If Oladipo starts putting up, 23.7, 6.6, 3.7 on .461, .393, .898 shooting splits the offers for Dipo will be off the charts. But so far he is not close to that.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/georgpa01.html

A little down to earth comparison: Cam Reddish's TS% is .500, Oladipo's is .506, the year George was traded, his was .587.

I hope it's clear that I didn't compare Oladipo to Paul George as players. I hope it's clear the reference was that when faced with a trade scenario before, Pritchard took the best offer, not just the first one. That would be pretty comparable in theory, right?

[Prospect Dong]

Several people have talked about "three years of Huerter". They mean two, right? And RFA rights obviously...

Dipo is incredibly hard to value, and I think the Hawks see Huerter as more than he's shown himself to be on the court, so this one is tough to make work. There's a pessimistic valuation of Dipo and an optimistic vision for Huerter's development that gets this one close to even, but the team that ends up with Dipo is going to be one that believes in his potential to come back as something like his 2018/19 self, not one that wants to take a flier on damaged goods.

[_s_t_u_r_t_]

Several people have talked about "three years of Huerter". They mean two, right? And RFA rights obviously...

Dipo is incredibly hard to value, and I think the Hawks see Huerter as more than he's shown himself to be on the court, so this one is tough to make work. There's a pessimistic valuation of Dipo and an optimistic vision for Huerter's development that gets this one close to even, but the team that ends up with Dipo is going to be one that believes in his potential to come back as something like his 2018/19 self, not one that wants to take a flier on damaged goods.

1) Yes, Dipo is incredibly hard to value. Agreed.

2) Mean "three years of control." If you like the player after two years, there's literally nothing he can do but accept your offer for the third, right?

3) Disagree regarding "pessimism" and "optimism," because it's more about the risk/reward assessment for each. One is still developing at age 22 and has shown he can be a weapon both as a shooter and ball distributor; for about $10m total, you get 3 years of his services. The other is coming back from significant surgery, and already has proven himself capable of being a weapon at an ASG level, but isn't yet back to that; and it's legitimately pointed out that even before his injury, his 2018-19 performance was not on-par with the previous big year. For $21m, you get one year of that guy, and his Bird rights.

Me, I'm on record that I'd rather take a chance on filling up $21m of 2020-21 cap space with Dipo--though I probably would have went the other way if the Hawks were at their 2019 off-season state of roster development. This is the right time, imo, for Schlenk to do something like this. He loses little by taking that chance because if (a) there are not any better obvious alternatives to add a veteran with an ASG on his resume' and (b) if Dipo doesn't impress, Schlenk just spends that money elsewhere next off-season... and if Dipo does impress and still yet leaves ATL, and worse-yet Huerter excels in IND making the trade a big win for IND... that's a risk I accept.

[Scoot McGroot]

Several people have talked about "three years of Huerter". They mean two, right? And RFA rights obviously...

Dipo is incredibly hard to value, and I think the Hawks see Huerter as more than he's shown himself to be on the court, so this one is tough to make work. There's a pessimistic valuation of Dipo and an optimistic vision for Huerter's development that gets this one close to even, but the team that ends up with Dipo is going to be one that believes in his potential to come back as something like his 2018/19 self, not one that wants to take a flier on damaged goods.

1) Yes, Dipo is incredibly hard to value. Agreed.

2) Mean "three years of control." If you like the player after two years, there's literally nothing he can do but accept your offer for the third, right?

3) Disagree regarding "pessimism" and "optimism," because it's more about the risk/reward assessment for each. One is still developing at age 22 and has shown he can be a weapon both as a shooter and ball distributor; for about $10m total, you get 3 years of his services. The other is coming back from significant surgery, and already has proven himself capable of being a weapon at an ASG level, but isn't yet back to that; and it's legitimately pointed out that even before his injury, his 2018-19 performance was not on-par with the previous big year. For $21m, you get one year of that guy, and his Bird rights.

Me, I'm on record that I'd rather take a chance on filling up $21m of 2020-21 cap space with Dipo--though I probably would have went the other way if the Hawks were at their 2019 off-season state of roster development. This is the right time, imo, for Schlenk to do something like this. He loses little by taking that chance because if (a) there are not any better obvious alternatives to add a veteran with an ASG on his resume' and (b) if Dipo doesn't impress, Schlenk just spends that money elsewhere next off-season... and if Dipo does impress and still yet leaves ATL, and worse-yet Huerter excels in IND making the trade a big win for IND... that's a risk I accept.

Huerter can just not sign the QO or refuse to continue to play for you. Yeah, ATL would be in the drivers seat, but they’re not guaranteed to get that 3rd year of play. He can make life pretty miserable too, that if he’s not a 100% keep at all costs kind of guy, you might feel inclined not to deal with him and either work out a S&T to a destination he’ll accept or revoke his QO and let him go elsewhere. In theory, he could even sign and play overseas.

But, otherwise, he’s due $7m over his remaining 2 years and his QO is for $6m.

[Prospect Dong]

Several people have talked about "three years of Huerter". They mean two, right? And RFA rights obviously...

Dipo is incredibly hard to value, and I think the Hawks see Huerter as more than he's shown himself to be on the court, so this one is tough to make work. There's a pessimistic valuation of Dipo and an optimistic vision for Huerter's development that gets this one close to even, but the team that ends up with Dipo is going to be one that believes in his potential to come back as something like his 2018/19 self, not one that wants to take a flier on damaged goods.

1) Yes, Dipo is incredibly hard to value. Agreed.

2) Mean "three years of control." If you like the player after two years, there's literally nothing he can do but accept your offer for the third, right?

3) Disagree regarding "pessimism" and "optimism," because it's more about the risk/reward assessment for each. One is still developing at age 22 and has shown he can be a weapon both as a shooter and ball distributor; for about $10m total, you get 3 years of his services. The other is coming back from significant surgery, and already has proven himself capable of being a weapon at an ASG level, but isn't yet back to that; and it's legitimately pointed out that even before his injury, his 2018-19 performance was not on-par with the previous big year. For $21m, you get one year of that guy, and his Bird rights.

Me, I'm on record that I'd rather take a chance on filling up $21m of 2020-21 cap space with Dipo--though I probably would have went the other way if the Hawks were at their 2019 off-season state of roster development. This is the right time, imo, for Schlenk to do something like this. He loses little by taking that chance because if (a) there are not any better obvious alternatives to add a veteran with an ASG on his resume' and (b) if Dipo doesn't impress, Schlenk just spends that money elsewhere next off-season... and if Dipo does impress and still yet leaves ATL, and worse-yet Huerter excels in IND making the trade a big win for IND... that's a risk I accept.

Re (2): You have at least three years of control, but only two years of cost control, because in year three you have to pay the higher of the QO and whatever the market offers. That's a huge difference, and treating the third year like an extra option year therefore doesn't make much sense - how many players played on their QO this year, for example? RFA rights are absolutely worth something (though less so for players who aren't worth the max) but I think it's more sensible to say 2 years+matching rights.

Re (3): I agree this deal makes sense for the Hawks at relatively low end (but still plausible) valuations of Dipo. You give up a guy who projects somewhere between ok starter and ok backup, and get a cheap shot at a guy could be (but probably won't - that's why this is hard!) an all-NBA second teamer next season. My - fairly uneducated - read on the probabilities of the various plausible outcomes is that it doesn't make sense for the pacers - the chance of getting a good all-star is just so valuable that it's worth a very secure shot at a good backup/fringe starter. I might be wrong about those probabilities, but as long as my estimates as to the rough shape of the outcomes for Dipo are sort of correct, he's going to go to a buyer who's more bullish on him than you are.

[_s_t_u_r_t_]

Huerter can just not sign the QO or refuse to continue to play for you. Yeah, ATL would be in the drivers seat, but they’re not guaranteed to get that 3rd year of play. He can make life pretty miserable too, that if he’s not a 100% keep at all costs kind of guy, you might feel inclined not to deal with him and either work out a S&T to a destination he’ll accept or revoke his QO and let him go elsewhere. In theory, he could even sign and play overseas.

But, otherwise, he’s due $7m over his remaining 2 years and his QO is for $6m.

In theory, yes. It rarely happens. But it has. Josh Childress famously got away from us back-in-the-day.

But again, the point remains, it's three years "of control."

[_s_t_u_r_t_]

Re (2): You have at least three years of control, but only two years of cost control, because in year three you have to pay the higher of the QO and whatever the market offers. That's a huge difference, and treating the third year like an extra option year therefore doesn't make much sense - how many players played on their QO this year, for example? RFA rights are absolutely worth something (though less so for players who aren't worth the max) but I think it's more sensible to say 2 years+matching rights.

I'll give you that. If Huerter turns out to be all-that, then that last year is going to cost market-value, which would be significant.

Re (3): I agree this deal makes sense for the Hawks at relatively low end (but still plausible) valuations of Dipo. You give up a guy who projects somewhere between ok starter and ok backup, and get a cheap shot at a guy could be (but probably won't - that's why this is hard!) an all-NBA second teamer next season. My - fairly uneducated - read on the probabilities of the various plausible outcomes is that it doesn't make sense for the pacers - the chance of getting a good all-star is just so valuable that it's worth a very secure shot at a good backup/fringe starter. I might be wrong about those probabilities, but as long as my estimates as to the rough shape of the outcomes for Dipo are sort of correct, he's going to go to a buyer who's more bullish on him than you are.

Okay.

[BK_2020]

If KH gets good enough to command more than the QO the Hawks already win

[basketballwacko2]

ATL
Given the lack of high-end talent in free agency this off-season, and severely increased competition on the horizon for next season's free agent market, GM Schlenk has exceptional reason to make a trade for a player who, at least, is arguably capable of high-end performance. And importantly, that player needs to be in the last year of his contract so that Schlenk still has the chance to be a player in the 2021 marketplace after all if the 2020-21 season performance isn't impressive.

From an ATL perspective, the deal includes Dedmon to somewhat mitigate the significantly larger salary burden that Dipo represents, and accordingly, mitigate against the worst-case scenario that Dipo's production is disappointing. That is, as opposed to ATL effectively taking an $18m risk if it were a straight-up trade, it's closer to an $8m risk.

Leaf, then, replaces Dedmon on the frontcourt depth chart.

IND
The Pacers receive in turn a young 6-7 wing who has impressed both with his shooting and his ball distribution skills, and at that, they get 3 years of him.

From an IND perspective, Dedmon brings a veteran presence to the Pacers frontcourt, and someone who has had success both in the low post and beyond the arc. Like Leaf, his 2019-20 year wasn't what was anticipated, but it's probably more reasonable to believe Dedmon can get back to his previous level of production than Leaf, and given Dipo's injury, his as well.

First of all you can have TJ Leaf in trade for an old ball rack with Jeff Teague's initials carved in it! As for the trade the Pacers have no interest in Dedmon he'd be at the end of the bench behind Goga in the depth chart. He's nothing but filler in this deal.

Huerter is an ok player but not enough for Victor when you're giving me a $13 million 3rd string center, Dedmon offsets any value Huerter brings us, so this is an easy no.

\

I think Dedmon is still a better player than Goga. Now the presence of Dedmon may limit Goga's development, but right now he is more ready to contribute.

Dedmon is $13 million, he would not play except in extreme injury or foul trouble cases. Goga is going to get minutes and there is no need for a $13 million 3rd and half backup center.

[Buzzard]

First of all you can have TJ Leaf in trade for an old ball rack with Jeff Teague's initials carved in it! As for the trade the Pacers have no interest in Dedmon he'd be at the end of the bench behind Goga in the depth chart. He's nothing but filler in this deal.

Huerter is an ok player but not enough for Victor when you're giving me a $13 million 3rd string center, Dedmon offsets any value Huerter brings us, so this is an easy no.

\

I think Dedmon is still a better player than Goga. Now the presence of Dedmon may limit Goga's development, but right now he is more ready to contribute.

Dedmon is $13 million, he would not play except in extreme injury or foul trouble cases. Goga is going to get minutes and there is no need for a $13 million 3rd and half backup center.

Dedmon's contract is in a range that is favorable for assisting in trades. Furthermore, with only 1 million guaranteed in 2021 it is also favorable in that regard as well.

Huerter is easily worth a 15 to 20 pick in this draft. Taking the Hawks do not want to get younger according to their GM/President, I doubt he gets moved by draft night; unless its to move up with 6.

I think Schlenk has done great job of acquiring two very favorable contracts in Capela for long term value and Dedmon for future cap space value, should a block buster come along. But they are the starting and backup centers for the Hawks, so moving them is going to require some net postive value coming back.

I think most everyone agrees Oladipo is not being traded by draft night. I think most of us also agree the chances are very high he is not moved until he can at least get to a normal TS% instead of looking like THJ on his worse day.

Its a great discussion point but I honestly think there is no way Oladipo is with Hawks anytime soon; or anyone else for that matter.

[Scoot McGroot]

I get that Dedmon is tradeable for his almost expiring contract, but I think most every team In the league would prefer cap space instead of taking him on. In a way, he’s a negative there because of that. Like, if Atlanta offered Huerter for Oladipo, that would be a much better offer than Huerter/Dedmon for Oladipo/Leaf, hypothetically of course.

[Buzzard]

I get that Dedmon is tradeable for his almost expiring contract, but I think most every team In the league would prefer cap space instead of taking him on. In a way, he’s a negative there because of that. Like, if Atlanta offered Huerter for Oladipo, that would be a much better offer than Huerter/Dedmon for Oladipo/Leaf, hypothetically of course.

Unless the Hawks sign Wood or Harrell, they have no business trading Dedmon. Dedmon is also the only player 30 years old on their roster right now for 2020/21. If they resign Teague that gives them two.

This is the year they address their depth; not tear it down. If Dedmon gets moved, I think it will be in a pretty big trade.

[basketballwacko2]

I get that Dedmon is tradeable for his almost expiring contract, but I think most every team In the league would prefer cap space instead of taking him on. In a way, he’s a negative there because of that. Like, if Atlanta offered Huerter for Oladipo, that would be a much better offer than Huerter/Dedmon for Oladipo/Leaf, hypothetically of course.

Unless the Hawks sign Wood or Harrell, they have no business trading Dedmon. Dedmon is also the only player 30 years old on their roster right now for 2020/21. If they resign Teague that gives them two.

This is the year they address their depth; not tear it down. If Dedmon gets moved, I think it will be in a pretty big trade.

No problem I don't think the Pacers are trading Victor this off season. His value is low because of his injury and after training camp and 25 games or so we'll all have a better view of his conditioning and I expect his value to be higher.

[basketballwacko2]

Several people have talked about "three years of Huerter". They mean two, right? And RFA rights obviously...

Dipo is incredibly hard to value, and I think the Hawks see Huerter as more than he's shown himself to be on the court, so this one is tough to make work. There's a pessimistic valuation of Dipo and an optimistic vision for Huerter's development that gets this one close to even, but the team that ends up with Dipo is going to be one that believes in his potential to come back as something like his 2018/19 self, not one that wants to take a flier on damaged goods.

1) Yes, Dipo is incredibly hard to value. Agreed.

2) Mean "three years of control." If you like the player after two years, there's literally nothing he can do but accept your offer for the third, right?

3) Disagree regarding "pessimism" and "optimism," because it's more about the risk/reward assessment for each. One is still developing at age 22 and has shown he can be a weapon both as a shooter and ball distributor; for about $10m total, you get 3 years of his services. The other is coming back from significant surgery, and already has proven himself capable of being a weapon at an ASG level, but isn't yet back to that; and it's legitimately pointed out that even before his injury, his 2018-19 performance was not on-par with the previous big year. For $21m, you get one year of that guy, and his Bird rights.

Me, I'm on record that I'd rather take a chance on filling up $21m of 2020-21 cap space with Dipo--though I probably would have went the other way if the Hawks were at their 2019 off-season state of roster development. This is the right time, imo, for Schlenk to do something like this. He loses little by taking that chance because if (a) there are not any better obvious alternatives to add a veteran with an ASG on his resume' and (b) if Dipo doesn't impress, Schlenk just spends that money elsewhere next off-season... and if Dipo does impress and still yet leaves ATL, and worse-yet Huerter excels in IND making the trade a big win for IND... that's a risk I accept.

Huerter can just not sign the QO or refuse to continue to play for you. Yeah, ATL would be in the drivers seat, but they’re not guaranteed to get that 3rd year of play. He can make life pretty miserable too, that if he’s not a 100% keep at all costs kind of guy, you might feel inclined not to deal with him and either work out a S&T to a destination he’ll accept or revoke his QO and let him go elsewhere. In theory, he could even sign and play overseas.

But, otherwise, he’s due $7m over his remaining 2 years and his QO is for $6m.

When he becomes an RFA some team could sign him to an over valued "Offer Sheet." Then you have to decide if you want to match it.

[DetroitDon15]

ATL
Given the lack of high-end talent in free agency this off-season, and severely increased competition on the horizon for next season's free agent market, GM Schlenk has exceptional reason to make a trade for a player who, at least, is arguably capable of high-end performance. And importantly, that player needs to be in the last year of his contract so that Schlenk still has the chance to be a player in the 2021 marketplace after all if the 2020-21 season performance isn't impressive.

From an ATL perspective, the deal includes Dedmon to somewhat mitigate the significantly larger salary burden that Dipo represents, and accordingly, mitigate against the worst-case scenario that Dipo's production is disappointing. That is, as opposed to ATL effectively taking an $18m risk if it were a straight-up trade, it's closer to an $8m risk.

Leaf, then, replaces Dedmon on the frontcourt depth chart.

IND
The Pacers receive in turn a young 6-7 wing who has impressed both with his shooting and his ball distribution skills, and at that, they get 3 years of him.

From an IND perspective, Dedmon brings a veteran presence to the Pacers frontcourt, and someone who has had success both in the low post and beyond the arc. Like Leaf, his 2019-20 year wasn't what was anticipated, but it's probably more reasonable to believe Dedmon can get back to his previous level of production than Leaf, and given Dipo's injury, his as well.

This deal makes no sense with Turner and DS still on board.

Dedmon's not a starter, so it really has little to do with it, imo.

The core of the deal is 1 year of whatever Dipo's potential is in exchange for 3 years of whatever Huerter's potential is.

Alot of teams would give up better for Oladipo. Taking Dedmon’s sea is just too much negative value. I have VO > Huerter so it doesn’t make a lot of sense. Maybe Atlanta adds a future pick.

[Buzzard]

This deal makes no sense with Turner and DS still on board.

Dedmon's not a starter, so it really has little to do with it, imo.

The core of the deal is 1 year of whatever Dipo's potential is in exchange for 3 years of whatever Huerter's potential is.

Alot of teams would give up better for Oladipo. Taking Dedmon’s sea is just too much negative value. I have VO > Huerter so it doesn’t make a lot of sense. Maybe Atlanta adds a future pick.

Your team, the Pistons, has cap space. Do you think they should send Kennard and maybe a future protected pick for Oladipo? This early, I don't think there is any value in risking assets for Oladipo.

Can you imagine a team like the Hawks, Pistons, Hornets, Knicks giving up two decent assets only for Dipo to walk after just one year? I can't.

[Topofthekey]

ATL is not a win now team and it has gobs of cap space. You are proposing that that they essentially trade Huerter for Dipos bird rights on the outside chance being able to offer an extra year and 8% increases becomes meaningful. Its a terrible idea for the Hawks. They should save their cap for OG or Lonzo.

You are undervaluing the fact that Hawks also get out of Dedmon's contract here, giving them even more cap space to work with in 2021

Dedmon is only guaranteed 1 million in 2021. That is a mosquito bite.

Really, I wasn't aware of that

Because on basketball reference it isn't listed as partially guaranteed

https://www.basketball-reference.com/contracts/ATL.html

[Scoot McGroot]

You are undervaluing the fact that Hawks also get out of Dedmon's contract here, giving them even more cap space to work with in 2021

Dedmon is only guaranteed 1 million in 2021. That is a mosquito bite.

Really, I wasn't aware of that

Because on basketball reference it isn't listed as partially guaranteed

https://www.basketball-reference.com/contracts/ATL.html

http://www.basketballinsiders.com/atlanta-hawks-team-salary/

It’s only the partial guarantee.

[Buzzard]

Dedmon is only guaranteed 1 million in 2021. That is a mosquito bite.

Really, I wasn't aware of that

Because on basketball reference it isn't listed as partially guaranteed

https://www.basketball-reference.com/contracts/ATL.html

http://www.basketballinsiders.com/atlanta-hawks-team-salary/

It’s only the partial guarantee.

This gives you the specifics of only 1 million guaranteed for 2021/22. The 1 million is the partial part. They have to release him by July 1st or pay his full contract.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/atlanta-hawks/dewayne-dedmon-13536/