Free Agent Cost Ranking

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Free Agent Cost Ranking 

Post#1 » by Mamba4Goat » Mon Oct 26, 2020 9:25 pm

Hi guys, thought it would be a fun project to break down this year's free-agent class into tiers based on their expected contract range...I'll leave off guys that will likely accept their Player Options (DeRozan, Drummond, Porter Jr, Hayward, etc.)

Max:
Spoiler:
Anthony Davis
Brandon Ingram
JJ Barea


$20-25mil annually
Spoiler:
Fred Van Vleet


$12-15mil annually
Spoiler:
Malik Beasley
Christian Wood
Jerami Grant
Davis Bertans
Montrezz Harrell
Marcus Morris
Danilo Gallinari
Evan Fournier


Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception
Spoiler:
Joe Harris
Paul Millsap
Mason Plumlee
Tristan Thompson
Justin Holiday
D'Anthony Melton
Derrick Jones Jr
Jae Crowder
Goran Dragic
Derrick Favors
DJ Augustin
Dario Saric
Aron Baynes
Hassan Whiteside
Bogdan Bogdanovic
Harry Giles (Maybe the BAE instead?)
Marc Gasol
Serge Ibaka


Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception
Spoiler:
Jeff Teague
Kris Dunn
Langston Galloway
JaMychal Green
Dwight Howard
Meyers Leonard
Wesley Matthews
Juancho Hernangomez
E'Twaun Moore
Moe Harkless
Bobby Portis
Nerlans Noel
Michael Carter Williams
Jordan Clarkson


Biannual Exception
Spoiler:
Torrey Craig
Josh Jackson
Pat Connaughton
Jevon Carter
Jakob Poeltl
Chris Boucher


$2-3mil annually
Spoiler:
DeAndre Bembry
Brad Wanamaker
Tyler Johnson
Willy Hernangomez
Denzel Valentine
Matthew Dellavedova
Troy Daniels
Noah Vonleh
Thon Maker
Austin Rivers
Alize Johnson
Jakarr Sampson
Markieff Morris
Solomon Hill
Sterling Brown
Frank Mason
Jordan McLaughlin
Jahlil Okafor
Frank Jackson
Kenrich Williams
Damyean Dotson
Mike Muscala
Wes Iwundu
Gary Clark
Alec Burks
Glenn Robinson III
Frank Kaminsky
Kent Bazemore
Bryn Forbes
Rondae Hollis Jefferson


Vet Min Bargain Bin/Steals
Spoiler:
Wilson Chandler
Bismack Biyombo
Shaq Harrison
Courtney Lee
Michael Kidd Gilchrist
John Henson
Brandon Knight
Bruno Caboclo
DeMarre Carroll
Jeff Green
Patrick Patterson
Reggie Jackson
Jared Dudley
Kyle Korver
Evan Turner
Andre Roberson
Raul Neto
Kyle O'Quinn
Carmelo Anthony
Marco Belinelli
Emmanuel Mudiay
Shabazz Napier
Ian Mahinmi
Gary Payton II


If I missed anyone I either legitimately missed them or deemed them not worthy of mention because I'm a jerk. Lots of people fit into two ranges too so it is a little fluid.
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Re: Free Agent Cost Ranking 

Post#2 » by BullyKing » Mon Oct 26, 2020 9:41 pm

Stopped reading when I saw you listed JJ Barea as a max guy. If the SUPERMAX wasn't created for someone like him then I don't know why it exists.
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Re: Free Agent Cost Ranking 

Post#3 » by BullyKing » Mon Oct 26, 2020 9:43 pm

It's hard to know how COVID will impact things. Like I would think Bertrans would get more than 12-15 but honestly who knows in this environment.
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the plan is to get as good as quickly as possible....I fully believe we could have been a borderline playoff team last year by adding young veterans....using or draft picks and cap space.....can I specifically tell you who? no.
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Re: Free Agent Cost Ranking 

Post#4 » by MoneyTalks41890 » Mon Oct 26, 2020 9:43 pm

https://nba.nbcsports.com/2020/10/26/rumor-nba-free-agents-already-agreeing-to-deals/ Some interesting additional context for this conversation.
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Re: Free Agent Cost Ranking 

Post#5 » by Mamba4Goat » Mon Oct 26, 2020 9:47 pm

BullyKing wrote:It's hard to know how COVID will impact things. Like I would think Bertrans would get more than 12-15 but honestly who knows in this environment.

My biggest thing with Bertans is that he’s a guy that a competing team would sign but none of them have more than the MLE. I’m not sure who offers more than the MLE except Washington.
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Re: Free Agent Cost Ranking 

Post#6 » by Mamba4Goat » Mon Oct 26, 2020 9:48 pm

MoneyTalks41890 wrote:https://nba.nbcsports.com/2020/10/26/rumor-nba-free-agents-already-agreeing-to-deals/ Some interesting additional context for this conversation.

I saw TnT legend Smitty say some stuff about that on the bird app. Makes sense, especially considering that it’ll be an accelerated free agency.
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Re: Free Agent Cost Ranking 

Post#7 » by BullyKing » Mon Oct 26, 2020 9:50 pm

Mamba4Goat wrote:
MoneyTalks41890 wrote:https://nba.nbcsports.com/2020/10/26/rumor-nba-free-agents-already-agreeing-to-deals/ Some interesting additional context for this conversation.

I saw TnT legend Smitty say some stuff about that on the bird app. Makes sense, especially considering that it’ll be an accelerated free agency.


And there's so little money out there you need to grab it immediately before its devoted elsewhere.
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the plan is to get as good as quickly as possible....I fully believe we could have been a borderline playoff team last year by adding young veterans....using or draft picks and cap space.....can I specifically tell you who? no.
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Re: Free Agent Cost Ranking 

Post#8 » by gswhoops » Mon Oct 26, 2020 9:50 pm

Mamba4Goat wrote:
BullyKing wrote:It's hard to know how COVID will impact things. Like I would think Bertrans would get more than 12-15 but honestly who knows in this environment.

My biggest thing with Bertans is that he’s a guy that a competing team would sign but none of them have more than the MLE. I’m not sure who offers more than the MLE except Washington.

I feel like Atlanta would be the likely answer. They have space and could absolutely use a guy with his shooting ability on like a 2/30 or 3/45 deal.

On the whole though I think your assessments are pretty spot on. Bertans and Wood are guys I could see sneaking into the $15-20M range
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Re: Free Agent Cost Ranking 

Post#9 » by BullyKing » Mon Oct 26, 2020 9:51 pm

Mamba4Goat wrote:
BullyKing wrote:It's hard to know how COVID will impact things. Like I would think Bertrans would get more than 12-15 but honestly who knows in this environment.

My biggest thing with Bertans is that he’s a guy that a competing team would sign but none of them have more than the MLE. I’m not sure who offers more than the MLE except Washington.


That's fair though I could see Atlanta making a bigger offer or the Knicks making a big offer on a 1 year deal (a good FA PF for a change of pace). I mean you're right that these are not necessarily contenders but neither is Washington and its not like he's a lifer there.
NYSixersFan wrote:
the plan is to get as good as quickly as possible....I fully believe we could have been a borderline playoff team last year by adding young veterans....using or draft picks and cap space.....can I specifically tell you who? no.
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Re: Free Agent Cost Ranking 

Post#10 » by zimpy27 » Mon Oct 26, 2020 9:58 pm

Might be worth considering values in terms of % of cap since that will impact a lot of this.

30% of cap max

25% of cap max

15-19% of cap salary

10-14% of cap salary

Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception

Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception

Biannual Exception

Vet Min
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Re: Free Agent Cost Ranking 

Post#11 » by jbk1234 » Mon Oct 26, 2020 10:26 pm

Mamba4Goat wrote:Hi guys, thought it would be a fun project to break down this year's free-agent class into tiers based on their expected contract range...I'll leave off guys that will likely accept their Player Options (DeRozan, Drummond, Porter Jr, Hayward, etc.)

Max:
Spoiler:
Anthony Davis
Brandon Ingram
JJ Barea


$20-25mil annually
Spoiler:
Fred Van Vleet


$12-15mil annually
Spoiler:
Malik Beasley
Christian Wood
Jerami Grant
Davis Bertans
Montrezz Harrell
Marcus Morris
Danilo Gallinari
Evan Fournier


Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception
Spoiler:
Joe Harris
Paul Millsap
Mason Plumlee
Tristan Thompson
Justin Holiday
D'Anthony Melton
Derrick Jones Jr
Jae Crowder
Goran Dragic
Derrick Favors
DJ Augustin
Dario Saric
Aron Baynes
Hassan Whiteside
Bogdan Bogdanovic
Harry Giles (Maybe the BAE instead?)
Marc Gasol
Serge Ibaka


Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception
Spoiler:
Jeff Teague
Kris Dunn
Langston Galloway
JaMychal Green
Dwight Howard
Meyers Leonard
Wesley Matthews
Juancho Hernangomez
E'Twaun Moore
Moe Harkless
Bobby Portis
Nerlans Noel
Michael Carter Williams
Jordan Clarkson


Biannual Exception
Spoiler:
Torrey Craig
Josh Jackson
Pat Connaughton
Jevon Carter
Jakob Poeltl
Chris Boucher


$2-3mil annually
Spoiler:
DeAndre Bembry
Brad Wanamaker
Tyler Johnson
Willy Hernangomez
Denzel Valentine
Matthew Dellavedova
Troy Daniels
Noah Vonleh
Thon Maker
Austin Rivers
Alize Johnson
Jakarr Sampson
Markieff Morris
Solomon Hill
Sterling Brown
Frank Mason
Jordan McLaughlin
Jahlil Okafor
Frank Jackson
Kenrich Williams
Damyean Dotson
Mike Muscala
Wes Iwundu
Gary Clark
Alec Burks
Glenn Robinson III
Frank Kaminsky
Kent Bazemore
Bryn Forbes
Rondae Hollis Jefferson


Vet Min Bargain Bin/Steals
Spoiler:
Wilson Chandler
Bismack Biyombo
Shaq Harrison
Courtney Lee
Michael Kidd Gilchrist
John Henson
Brandon Knight
Bruno Caboclo
DeMarre Carroll
Jeff Green
Patrick Patterson
Reggie Jackson
Jared Dudley
Kyle Korver
Evan Turner
Andre Roberson
Raul Neto
Kyle O'Quinn
Carmelo Anthony
Marco Belinelli
Emmanuel Mudiay
Shabazz Napier
Ian Mahinmi
Gary Payton II


If I missed anyone I either legitimately missed them or deemed them not worthy of mention because I'm a jerk. Lots of people fit into two ranges too so it is a little fluid.
I think a number of older vets are getting overpaid on this list. I think a number of young guys will go for more.

In terms of vets who I think you have signing for too little, both Henson and Clarkson will sign for more.

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Re: Free Agent Cost Ranking 

Post#12 » by Ghost of Kleine » Mon Oct 26, 2020 11:13 pm

Mamba4Goat wrote:
BullyKing wrote:It's hard to know how COVID will impact things. Like I would think Bertrans would get more than 12-15 but honestly who knows in this environment.

My biggest thing with Bertans is that he’s a guy that a competing team would sign but none of them have more than the MLE. I’m not sure who offers more than the MLE except Washington.


Maybe New York or Detroit perhaps? :dontknow:
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Re: Free Agent Cost Ranking 

Post#13 » by NYG » Mon Oct 26, 2020 11:41 pm

Ghost of Kleine wrote:
Mamba4Goat wrote:
BullyKing wrote:It's hard to know how COVID will impact things. Like I would think Bertrans would get more than 12-15 but honestly who knows in this environment.

My biggest thing with Bertans is that he’s a guy that a competing team would sign but none of them have more than the MLE. I’m not sure who offers more than the MLE except Washington.


Maybe New York or Detroit perhaps? :dontknow:


I would sign him for $10 Million if that’s all it took
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Re: Free Agent Cost Ranking 

Post#14 » by Buzzard » Tue Oct 27, 2020 12:06 am

I added Dragic and Harris to your 12- 15 million list. Atlanta, New York, Detroit can possibly sign two each. The Hornets, Heat, and Suns can possibly sign one each. Now add in that their own teams will try hard to retain a lot of them, I think its a pretty accurate summary.

12-15mil annually
Malik Beasley
Christian Wood
Jerami Grant
Davis Bertans
Montrezz Harrell
Marcus Morris
Danilo Gallinari
Evan Fournier
Joe Harris
Goran Dragic
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Re: Free Agent Cost Ranking 

Post#15 » by kalenclayton » Tue Oct 27, 2020 12:39 am

If Bogdan gets the MLE, I will be ecstatic (as long as he’s a King). I just feel like he’s going to be higher than that.
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Re: Free Agent Cost Ranking 

Post#16 » by _s_t_u_r_t_ » Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:09 am

BullyKing wrote:
Mamba4Goat wrote:
BullyKing wrote:It's hard to know how COVID will impact things. Like I would think Bertrans would get more than 12-15 but honestly who knows in this environment.

My biggest thing with Bertans is that he’s a guy that a competing team would sign but none of them have more than the MLE. I’m not sure who offers more than the MLE except Washington.


That's fair though I could see Atlanta making a bigger offer or the Knicks making a big offer on a 1 year deal (a good FA PF for a change of pace). I mean you're right that these are not necessarily contenders but neither is Washington and its not like he's a lifer there.


Bertans, eh?

Schlenk's consistently stated on multiple occasions that he looks for three essential things: shooting, dribbling, passing.

Interpret that as you will.

By many if not most assessments, this team has no greater need than to get better defensively.

Interpret that as you will.
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Re: Free Agent Cost Ranking 

Post#18 » by Ghost of Kleine » Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:42 am

NYG wrote:
Ghost of Kleine wrote:
Mamba4Goat wrote:My biggest thing with Bertans is that he’s a guy that a competing team would sign but none of them have more than the MLE. I’m not sure who offers more than the MLE except Washington.


Maybe New York or Detroit perhaps? :dontknow:


I would sign him for $10 Million if that’s all it took


I know that New York and Detroit obviously aren't competing teams yet, But I'd still fully expect them to heavily pursue Bertrans as a cheaper alternative to Gallinari, And either New York or Detroit could possibly look to run him at the 3, next to either Randall or Griffin, As both are fairly dominant in the paint still. And if they could get Bertans at a bargain over a long term deal, I think they'll be more than willing to exceed any amount equivalent to the MLE amount? :dontknow:
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Re: Free Agent Cost Ranking 

Post#19 » by kalenclayton » Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:13 am

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Re: Free Agent Cost Ranking 

Post#20 » by giberish » Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:57 am

I expect you're overrating the amount many of these guys will get. This will be the opposite of 2016 with many players taking less then expected as there just isn't spending money around the league.

Mamba4Goat wrote:Hi guys, thought it would be a fun project to break down this year's free-agent class into tiers based on their expected contract range...I'll leave off guys that will likely accept their Player Options (DeRozan, Drummond, Porter Jr, Hayward, etc.)

Max:
Spoiler:
Anthony Davis
Brandon Ingram
JJ Barea

This seems about right
Mamba4Goat wrote:$20-25mil annually
Spoiler:
Fred Van Vleet

With this summer's money probably more like $20M/yr then $25M/yr
Mamba4Goat wrote:
$12-15mil annually
Spoiler:
Malik Beasley
Christian Wood
Jerami Grant
Davis Bertans
Montrezz Harrell
Marcus Morris
Danilo Gallinari
Evan Fournier


I expect Fournier opts in. The others do seem to be in the 'just above MLE money' range. Crowder, Joe Harris or Bogdonovic might join them. Dragic may even get more but just on a 1-year deal to preserve Miami's 2021 cap space.
Mamba4Goat wrote:
Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception
Spoiler:
Joe Harris
Paul Millsap
Mason Plumlee
Tristan Thompson
Justin Holiday
D'Anthony Melton
Derrick Jones Jr
Jae Crowder
Goran Dragic
Derrick Favors
DJ Augustin
Dario Saric
Aron Baynes
Hassan Whiteside
Bogdan Bogdanovic
Harry Giles (Maybe the BAE instead?)
Marc Gasol
Serge Ibaka


Crowder/Dragic/Harris/Ibaka/Bogdonovic could get more. On the other hand I don't see Plumlee, Thompson, Saric Melton, Holiday,Augustine (or Milsap or Gasol if for more then one year) getting this much. And I'd expect Giles to be way less.
Mamba4Goat wrote:
Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception
Spoiler:
Jeff Teague
Kris Dunn
Langston Galloway
JaMychal Green
Dwight Howard
Meyers Leonard
Wesley Matthews
Juancho Hernangomez
E'Twaun Moore
Moe Harkless
Bobby Portis
Nerlans Noel
Michael Carter Williams
Jordan Clarkson

Clarkson, Hernangomez and Harkless could get full MLE money. Many others on this list could be down to vet min deals given how little money is out there (Portis, Moore, Galloway)
Mamba4Goat wrote:
Biannual Exception
Spoiler:
Torrey Craig
Josh Jackson
Pat Connaughton
Jevon Carter
Jakob Poeltl
Chris Boucher


I could see Craig getting more. Solid 3 and D SF is a very in-demand role.
Mamba4Goat wrote:
$2-3mil annually
Spoiler:
DeAndre Bembry
Brad Wanamaker
Tyler Johnson
Willy Hernangomez
Denzel Valentine
Matthew Dellavedova
Troy Daniels
Noah Vonleh
Thon Maker
Austin Rivers
Alize Johnson
Jakarr Sampson
Markieff Morris
Solomon Hill
Sterling Brown
Frank Mason
Jordan McLaughlin
Jahlil Okafor
Frank Jackson
Kenrich Williams
Damyean Dotson
Mike Muscala
Wes Iwundu
Gary Clark
Alec Burks
Glenn Robinson III
Frank Kaminsky
Kent Bazemore
Bryn Forbes
Rondae Hollis Jefferson


Vet Min Bargain Bin/Steals
Spoiler:
Wilson Chandler
Bismack Biyombo
Shaq Harrison
Courtney Lee
Michael Kidd Gilchrist
John Henson
Brandon Knight
Bruno Caboclo
DeMarre Carroll
Jeff Green
Patrick Patterson
Reggie Jackson
Jared Dudley
Kyle Korver
Evan Turner
Andre Roberson
Raul Neto
Kyle O'Quinn
Carmelo Anthony
Marco Belinelli
Emmanuel Mudiay
Shabazz Napier
Ian Mahinmi
Gary Payton II


If I missed anyone I either legitimately missed them or deemed them not worthy of mention because I'm a jerk. Lots of people fit into two ranges too so it is a little fluid.

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