A Portland Off-Season Plan Through the Eyes of NeO

[Soulyss]

There have been a bunch of great posts and ideas around a Blazers offseason by a number of regulars like Tim L, DaVoice, etc... I'm taking a different approach to this where I am going to try and apply what I have seen historically from Neal Olshey and build an off-season plan with an eye on improvement, with a realistic amount of roster turnover, prioritizing continuity while sticking to these tenants:

• Dame and CJ will not be traded this off-season. Olshey won't do it until he's forced, and he has not gotten a full run with a healthy Dame, CJ, and Nurk. Until that happens he'll argue that it can (and it might) work.
• The Blazers simply are not a free agent destination. Taxes, location, demographics all work against Portland in drawing marquee free agents. Most people who come here end up loving it, but they are either drafted or traded for. We're not putting together a plan for "Cap Space" since it makes no sense in Portland.
• Dame & CJ's Prime window is longer than people think. CP3 & Lowry had great, All-star level years in their mid-30's, there is zero reason to believe given their shooting and dedication to staying shape that Dame and CJ will not have 4 or 5 more prime-level years. So while time is ticking, we're not in panic mode.
• Olshey is a solid talent scout, and the draft is his strength. Draft assets should be maximized if possible, Portland's primary path to improvement is through the draft.
• Hood & Collins will be fully recovered and productive. This is probably the riskiest assumption, but by all accounts Hood looks great, and Collins injury should not be a long term problem.

With that set, I look at the roster and what needs to take shape to move Portland into the top-4 of the West.

• a rotation PF or C (assuming Portland can play small with Collins at C)
• Improved defense at the wing.
• Guard depth at the PG.

With that preamble... The Plan:

Step 1: Deal with the (Important) roster choices
To me this is a pretty straight forward choice. Whiteside was always a Nurkic bridge, and it's very clear the very large gap in value between the two. Portland can fill those minutes with a better fitting, piece. Whiteside is not resigned. Melo was a first class citizen, has spoke highly of Portland and playing alongside Dame and CJ. I think Portland would welcome Melo back with open arms at the Vet's minimum on more of a 6th man role. Unfortunately I think Melo will get a better deal elsewhere, and will ultimately end up with a different contender: Melo is not resigned. Gary Trent Jr. is up for extension, and if Portland believes that Bubble Trent is the real Trent, they should lock him up. They do, and will, but will time it to ensure use of their MLE.
GTJ Extended, 4 yrs, 48 million. Zach Collins is more of an enigma. He clearly has Olshey's support, everyone loves his fire but he can't seem to get out of his own way and just CALM DOWN and stay healthy. I think Portland will watch him this season to see if he breaks out before committing dollars. Collins not extended, will retain his bird-rights

Step 2: Bust our the old trade machine!

Trade #1:

Portland Trades: Anfernee Simons, 2021 1st Round Pick (Lotto, Lotto, Lotto, 2-2nds)

Why for Portland: Anfernee is going to be buried in the rotation by GTJ. He needs a new place where he can get minutes and thrive. Portland gets a second pick in the late lottery where there are good fits for Portland's needs in that range.

Orlando Trades: James Ennis III (opt-in), 2020 1st round pick (#15), 2021 2nd round pick

Why for Orlando: Simons is an ideal floor spacing fit at SG alongside Fultz and should set their backcourt for the next 5 years. Ennis is a 30 yr old salary throw-in. The 2021 pick upgrade covers any perceived gap between Simons and this year's pick by providing a pick for next years (much stronger) draft.

That's it... Most teams don't pull off more than one trade in an off-season unless it's a teardown rebuild, and given the compressed nature of the off-season I think this is the only move the Blazers make.

Step 3: Bring on the Draft!

With the 15th pick In the 2020 NBA Draft, The Portland Trailblazers Select... Saddiq Bey, Forward, Villanova

Portland comes up with one of the most NBA ready players in the draft, someone who should be a prototypical 3-D wing for the Blazers for the next decade. Jay Wright's players seem to over-perform their draft slot and end up as productive NBA players. This selection aligns with Dame & CJ's timeline.

With the 16th pick In the 2020 NBA Draft, The Portland Trailblazers Select... Aaron Nesmith, Forward, Vandy

In this scenario Portland was hoping that Precious Achiuwa was going to fall to them, but Boston jumped up in a deal with the Wizards and snagged him using some of their draft assets to do a 3 for 1 at #9 (#14, #26, Future 2nd). Portland keeping with "Best Available" grabs the best 3pt shooter in the draft who also should be a long term 3-D wing and replacement for Rodney Hood after this season.

Step 4: Free Agency!

Portland has it's full MLE and then vet. minimum contracts to finish filling out it's roster for this season. In this scenario Portland looks at the market, team needs, and who's willing to spend (and isn't saving themselves for 2021). Portland makes an aggressive early play and lands Danilo Gallinari for 4yrs/41.9Million (full MLE).

Portland now needs to address depth at the PG, and C position. Portland has only the minimum available, and while these choices may not be popular with Blazer fans, they fit the need.

Portland signs Evan Turner to a 1+1 (PO) for the veteran's minimum. Evan comes back to Portland as a flexible piece in case of injury with the primary idea of being the "3rd point guard" and depth at the SF in case of injury or struggles by Bey, Little, or Hood. Evan has great chemistry in that locker room, has been working out with Dame, and is really good being a teaching veteran with young players. Evan liked Portland, and still has a home here.

Portland signs Meyers "The Legend" Leonard to a 1 year, minimum contract. Portland fan's favorite punching bag, Meyers agrees to come back to Olshey and give it one more go. He's always been a great teammate and professional, and at the minimum being the "emergency big" is a good fit for him at this juncture.

Step 5: Final Roster, Minute Allocations, & Closing comments

Primary Roation Players: Dame, CJ, Nurkic, Gallinari, Ariza, GTJr, Collins, Hood, Bey, Little, Turner
Secondary Bench: Nesmith, Herzonia, Ennis III, The Legend Returns
Projects / Two-way: Brown, Hoard

PG: Dame (32), CJ (6), Turner (10)
SG: CJ (24), Trent JR - (28)
SF: Ariza (16), Hood (16), Bey (6), Little (10)
PF: Gallinari (28), Collins (8), Bey (12)
C: Nurkic (28), Collins (20)

Obviously 11 players in the normal rotation is a little abnormal, but I think coaches will be watching minutes more closely this next season with it's compressed nature, especially early. I could see the rotation tightening up depending on how Bey, Little, Hood, and Nesmith play. The Gallinari deal feels a bit light, BUT I struggled to find a team with a better situation, who would guarantee him starting minutes through these next couple of years and wants to invest in a 32 yr old player NOW. Portland is honestly his best option IMO.

Personally I hope Precious Achiuwa DOES in fact slip to Portland, but I suspect someone in the mid-lotto will fall in love and take him. If he does fall to Portland, he would be the pick over Nesmith and would give Portland two, uber athletic, flexible, long term players to mold around Dame, CJ, and Nurk. But in this scenario Nesmith's shooting will quickly make him the next GTJr, but I don't see a lot of contribution from him until next year.

Turner and Leonard will be controversial with Blazers fans, but these are minimum deals with no long term risk, and plenty of upside where they will come in with an accepted role and you know they are good teammates. That's IMPORTANT in Portland.

I personally would be pretty excited about this roster, I think it will challenge for a top-4 seed in the West (assuming Health).

This is a long read, I hope you all enjoyed it.

[BlazersBroncos]

I dont think ORL would do that move. Otherwise, its nice and realistic.

That team is still R2 fodder and we are still in a position to have to pay both GTJ and Zach in 2021 followed by Nurkic in 2022.

I think we should use Zach to move up from 16 and avoid paying both he and GTJ, but some may disagree.

Getting Gallo for that would be a insane steal. We would need to build a shrine to Nurkic if that happened because their friendship and his recruiting would IMO be the only reason he came at that price.

Also, I hate Nesmith. Fools gold whos 3PT % is overhyped on a small sample size against putrid competition. He is John Jenkins with high heels on.

[Tim Lehrbach]

Good write-up. I've mostly posted crazy stuff, but I'll get around to a more realistic plan here in the next week or so.

I like that you went after another draft pick. I think the Orlando deal is tilted towards Portland; the Magic don't get an asset as good as #15 and have to add a near-first rounder in the highly anticipated 2021 draft. But I'm fully on-board with loading up in this draft, which I've said repeatedly is being dramatically undervalued just because people aren't excited about the top prospects. The surplus of mobile bigs who excel on the glass and impressive point guards in this class are a major opportunity to fill out the roster.

I have thought about the possibility of bringing back Leonard. I could see it. In his final season the Blazers and Meyers did a great job with maximizing his limited contributions. Ultimately he's still a liability in a lot of matchups. Personally I would rather use the roster spot to keep Gabriel. He has more defensive versatility and may be up for the same kind of catch-and-shoot role that Meyers played, even if Wenyen's feel and promise as a passer never pan out.

I am torn on the Trent extension. Both sides might rather take their chances with RFA in 2021. Agree about not extending Collins, but also agree with BB about shopping him.

Gallo deal looks low, but I really don't know what he can expect to get, or from whom.

Altogether, I think your team is improved. It depends on some favorable scenarios (Orlando trade, Gallo signing) that may not play out. But, if it came together something like that I'd be really excited for the season.

[wolves_89]

I don't see any chance that Gallinari signs with Portland for the MLE. He will definitely have offers on the table for significantly more, and even if he is willing to sign for MLE level money I'm guessing he would target a team with a better shot at a championship.

[Texas Chuck]

Orlando isn't making that trade. I also think you are being too optimistic everywhere. CJ and Dame may have 4-5 years of prime left, but they might not. Historically we know the opposite is true--windows are almost always shorter than teams think, not longer. Hood and Collins might be fully healthy and be strong contributors but neither guy has any kind of meaningful track record where even if healthy a team should feel like I have these 50-60 minutes solved with those 2.

Trent might lock up that security, but he might also gamble on himself knowing next year there is more cap space than good players to go around and young wings who can shoot and aren't total turnstyles always have a market.

Gallo for the MLE feels optimistic. Leonard for the min might even be optimistic. Turner is fine.

Taken individually each of those things could work out for the Blazers--except the trade and Gallo, can't see either of those at all. But collectively it feels overly optimistic because each individual piece of this is so optimistic.

[JRoy]

Love the draft choices.

Doubt ORL has that much interest in Simons and who can blame them, he stunk it up this year.

[DaVoiceMaster]

Gotta agree with the others. I don't think you get Gallo that cheaply. I think he goes for somewhere between $15-$18 million per year. Ariza and Collins achieves that and incentivizes the Thunder to make the trade.

That leaves the MLE still for the taking. Go after Crowder and run with a starting lineup of Lillard/McCollum/Crowder/Gallinari/Nurkic. Your bench is weak and needs to be filled out with veterans, but it's a decent starting 5.
Trade the Bazemore TPE with Boston for Kanter and the #30 pick.

Your Orlando trade is not a bad idea, but I do question why Orlando does it. Maybe if you add another young talent, that will entice them to send this years pick. Maybe Simons & Little for Ennis & #15 pick. With the #15, #16, and #30 picks, I would select Saddiq Bey, Jalen Smith, and Malachi Flynn.

I would re-sign Carmelo Anthony and Wenyen Gabriel and would offer a vet minimum contract to Alec Burks. If Hood can return to form or darn close to how he was playing before he got hurt (career year), that will really help catapult the Blazers into the top 4.

The youngsters are Flynn/Trent Jr/Bey/Gabriel/Smith. I believe all are supposed to be pretty decent defenders so that's a nice lineup to consider in 4-5 years.

Lillard/Flynn/Ennis
McCollum/Trent Jr/Burks
Crowder/Hood/Bey
Gallinari/Melo/Gabriel
Nurkic/Kanter/Smith

[Wizenheimer]

[list][*] Dame and CJ will not be traded this off-season. Olshey won't do it until he's forced, and he has not gotten a full run with a healthy Dame, CJ, and Nurk. Until that happens he'll argue that it can (and it might) work..

sometimes, I really have to check if my memory is failing. I read that part and immediately went wut????

Portland got a "full run" of a healthy Dame-CJ-Nurk trio just 2 seasons ago. And they then got swept by New Orleans when all three were healthy and on the floor. And just a few weeks ago, all three were around when the Lakers crushed them.

as for your plan, some of it is fine while some is unrealistic

but mainly, it seems like it's just reshuffling role-players and 4th-6th options. Portland's issues that are keeping them in pretender status are not at the lower levels of the rotation. They are at the top of the rotation. The template for being a contender is to have more than one elite talent, and some of that high-level talent needs to be in the form of 6'6-6'11 two-way players capable of forcing opposing defenses to adjust and react. And a true contender needs to have have a top-10 defense. Portland doesn't come close to checking any of those boxes.

[TheProfessor]

Yeah just a caveat here, the reason why Lowry and CP3 are so good is because of defense and passing. 2 things no has accused CJ/Dame of doing at a elite level ever. Scoring tends to drop as you age. I would move both CJ and Dame.

[JasonStern]

A lot to process here.

Whiteside is not resigned. - If a team offers Whiteside a starting role, I can see him taking that. Likewise, if a team offers Whiteside more than mini-MLE money, it makes sense to let him walk. The Blazers cannot trust that both Nurkić and Collins remain healthy all season, so if Whiteside isn't retained, then a backup 5 needs to be acquired.

Melo is not resigned. - Another 50/50 call here. It's hard for me to see the Blazers not offer him at least a veteran minimum contract - probably the BAE. Guarantee him a starting role (but not starter minutes). Blazers are one of the few teams that can use Melo in his current athletic state. He fit in great with the locker room, and Portland was the one team willing to take a chance on him. So the only way I see him leave is if an actual contender can offer him the same.

GTJ Extended, 4 yrs, 48 million. - Seems reasonable enough.

Collins not extended, will retain his bird-rights. - Also reasonable enough.

Portland Trades: Anfernee Simons, 2021 1st Round Pick (Lotto, Lotto, Lotto, 2-2nds)
Orlando Trades: James Ennis III (opt-in), 2020 1st round pick (#15), 2021 2nd round pick
Portland Trailblazers Select... Saddiq Bey
Portland Trailblazers Select... Aaron Nesmith
- If we believe Dame and CJ are off the table because they're Olshey's boys, I can't see Simons being moved. 2021 is supposed to be a better draft class than 2020, so Portland would really need to like a player. Adding 3 rookies to this roster seems a bit unrealistic, so if Portland went this route, it would probably be more of a Collins style trade to move up to ~8-10 to get one player they like better.

Danilo Gallinari for 4yrs/41.9Million. - As others have stated, he should get more. Failing that, either a team with a better chance of contending or a more desireable free agency destination would match that offer.

Portland signs Evan Turner to a 1+1 (PO) for the veteran's minimum. - Seems like Turner could pull a bit more than a minimum contract. But even if he can't, Turner in Stotts' offense didn't work the first time. Not sure why they would try that experiment again.

Portland signs Meyers "The Legend" Leonard to a 1 year, minimum contract. - Pretty sure that if Meyers is willing to sign for the minimum, Miami would match and he would stay there. Finals appearance, no state tax, etc.

[Ell Curry]

My guess is they'll be cautious and wait until the deadline for a big move when there are more sellers than buyers. Millsap for 2 years MLE makes a lot of sense, as would Derrick Jones Jr for the same sort of thing if they think he can learn to hit a corner over his mid 20s or they're all in on Collins as a stretch 5 (which they really might be, some people love him) or see Nurkic's big FT improvement as a sign he can become a passable 3 pt shooter and so accommodate a poor shooter like Jones at the 4 in order to get his athleticism out there as a logical compliment to the undersized shooters in Dame, CJ and Trent.

Nurkic/Collins
Millsap/#15
Trent/Ariza
CJ/Hood
Lillard/Simons

and then there's always an Ariza plus assets deadline deal for a starting 3 to defend your Luka, Kawhi and Lebron types like Aaron Gordon or Oubre or Marcus Morris or whoever becomes available once their team is 10 games out of the 8th spot and ready to pack it in and tank.

[ecuhus1981]

Cool story bro.

You spent 1500 words telling us everything you won't do. Then, the main two acquisitions are ridiculously slanted in favor of Portland. If you like Simons do much, just keep him. Around the league, he's known as one of the worst defenders in years. Orlando would be crazy to trade #15 for him and a 2021 heavily protected 1st, but then you have the gall to suggest they chip in a 2nd. Gallo can get the full MLE from better teams, and he can get more lucrative offers as well. My guess is he goes to Denver for 2 years, $40mil. He's not taking a 50% paycut to go to a worse team than the Thunder.

[Norm2953]

I'm doubtful the Orlando piece is going to come off and think an extension for GTJ is questionable given
the extensions for Dame/CJ and the more likely need for an extension for Nurk. Something has to give
when Dame/CJ along with Nurk taking up 80% of the teams cap. More likely Portland will allow both
players to become RFA and match any reasonable offers.

This is going to be an interesting summer for teams are going to be impacted by the loss of 2020 revenue
and likely will be dealing with the loss of 2021 revenue, especially if the season starts in January. There
will be a large group of players who eventually will be happy to just get the MLE and only a handful of
teams have the cap space to offer more than the MLE and those teams will want a better player than
Gallinari.

I do think Portland will look at their position (16) as sufficient to add someone good enough to play
some rotation minutes. If there is a player or two they prefer over the others and the cost is not too
high, they could go get that player. This is a draft with no superstars but really solid depth and the guy
you get at 16 is more or less the same quality of player you get at 10 which is ideal for Portland unless
they are really sold on a player.

[BlazersBroncos]

I'm doubtful the Orlando piece is going to come off and think an extension for GTJ is questionable given
the extensions for Dame/CJ and the more likely need for an extension for Nurk. Something has to give
when Dame/CJ along with Nurk taking up 80% of the teams cap. More likely Portland will allow both
players to become RFA and match any reasonable offers.

This is why I think Portland should use one, or both, of ZC / GTJ to trade up from 16. We cant afford them both of them and looking at the Nurkic extension its arguable we cant afford either of them. Moving up using them and 16 to secure a guy like Deni or OO on a cost controlled deal for 4 seasons is huge for our finances.

[hugepatsfan]

Thinking Hood will be good sounds like delusion. Sure, he might be on track to make it back on the court. But very few players are ever themselves in year 1 back from injuries like that. Expecting him to be a positive producer is overly optimistic IMO.

[shrink]

I appreciated this post a great deal, particularly the tenets. I learned a lot.

Thank you for taking the time to post that Soulyss

[BlazersBroncos]

Thinking Hood will be good sounds like delusion. Sure, he might be on track to make it back on the court. But very few players are ever themselves in year 1 back from injuries like that. Expecting him to be a positive producer is overly optimistic IMO.

I think he may be a sieve on defense year 1 back, but his offensive game in theory should return quite quickly. He had a decent pump fake from the 3 for a drive that may take time to return to form but he is mostly just a standstill 3PT shooter and that should not be too difficult to return to after the injury.

Its really too bad, he was easily having his best year as a pro before the injury. He finally seemed to settle into a role that fit his best traits and minimized his poor ones. He is a nice role player when healthy.

[Skybox]

As an ORL fan, I'd be interested in Simons...but right now, you could argue that Ennis is better (forget about the pick). Simons was drafted deep and hasn't done anything to move his value up. ORL says a big no to that offer.

[BlazersBroncos]

As an ORL fan, I'd be interested in Simons...but right now, you could argue that Ennis is better (forget about the pick). Simons was drafted deep and hasn't done anything to move his value up. ORL says a big no to that offer.

This is totally understandable. I think Simons value is around pick 25-30. I could see BOS having interest since they lack bench scoring and have 3 FRP's. He was not ready last season, he was passive and inefficient, but he has tons of natural talent on offense.

[Soulyss]

As an ORL fan, I'd be interested in Simons...but right now, you could argue that Ennis is better (forget about the pick). Simons was drafted deep and hasn't done anything to move his value up. ORL says a big no to that offer.

This is totally understandable. I think Simons value is around pick 25-30. I could see BOS having interest since they lack bench scoring and have 3 FRP's. He was not ready last season, he was passive and inefficient, but he has tons of natural talent on offense.

I understand that perspective, my thought is that that a 2021 1st where Portland is likely to draft is more valuable in a year where Orlando given the loss of Isaac might struggle to be a playoff team, so having two 1sts in 2021 would maximize flexibility in a loaded draft. If the 2nd was removed would the deal be more palatable or is it DOA?

BTW I appreciate all of the constructive comments and feedback, this wasn't intended to be MY offseason plan so much as what I thought what Portland's front office might try to do given my premise (which clearly was frustrating to some Blazers fans).