RealGM

2018 list

Please vote for the #1 lowest trade value player taking into account salary, age, health, etc. and not just their caliber of play. In addition please nominate a player to replace them on the list.



Russell Westbrook (3 years, 132.7 million, includes 3rd year 47.1 million player option)



Andrew Wiggins (3 years, 94.7 million)



John Wall (3 years, 133 million, includes 3rd year 47.4 million player option)



Blake Griffin (2 years, 75.8 million, includes 2nd year 39.0 million player option)



Kevin Love (3 years, 91.5 million)



D'Angelo Russell (3 years, 90.3 million)



Al Horford (2 years, 54.5 million, plus 26.5 million 3rd year with 12 million guaranteed)

This is between Westbrook and Wall for me, both ginormous contracts. It's close but Westbrook has always been a player you don't want after he reaches his cliff cause of ego, so I'll say he's the more radioactive asset

Vote Russell Westbrook

Nominate Klay Thompson

I think 40 million a year for a guy who's about to miss his 2nd straight season is too much to take, even for teams that otherwise love him

Ehhh... really tough call.

Still consider Russ to be the superior talent despite his sub-replacement level play in his first 9 games. I think he'll eventually settle into being better than this, and you gotta question whether Wall's decent but not great start is sustainable.

With much trepidation:

I vote John Wall

Nominate Klay Thompson

Yeah, sorry Klay. Feels bad putting him here but he's had one really really bad injury followed by one catastrophic one. That's a tough way forward on that deal.

Vote: Westbrook. A 32yo 6'3" point center (in an anti Jokic of a way as almost possible) isn't a player type you want to owe $140M to. Horrific advanced stats leading to the worst record in the league further seal this home run pick.

Nominate: Klay. I forgot about him in the initial vote. And I agree I feel a little dirty putting him here. But it's a ton of money and the repetition of major injury is not ignorable.

Westbrook

Nominate: Porzingis or Buddy Heild

John Wall

Nominate Draymond Green at 4/99m

Vote: Westbrook, this is an easy choice.

Vote Westbrook
Nominate Devin Booker (5/158)

Westbrook

Nominate dlo

Vote Westbrook

Nominate Chris Paul

I'm shocked Klay isn't on here. I would pick him if he were. Who knows how long it will take him to get back on the floor. He's the same age as wall, 4 year max left counting this season. I think he should be the runaway winner here.

I'd vote Westbrook of the guys here. It's him, Wall, Wiggins and Dlo for me. More expensive than Wiggins and Dlo and he's been worse than Wall, and two years older.

Vote Russell Westbrook (and this pains me to put him here)

Nominate Klay Thompson (also feels bad).

All in all a post that made me feel worse

In fact this thread series may be a bit bleak for me going forward lol

Vote Westbrook: He wasn't worth that contract in his prime
Nominate Tobias Harris: Philly could have maybe made a serious contender if not for his contract...

Vote Westbrook: Can't build anything around him with his liabilities
Nominate Draymond Green; rough contract

V: Westbrook
Contract is big and long, and he doesn't contribute to winning anymore.

N: Harrison Barnes
Below average starter at either forward position making ~$20 million/year for 3 seasons when he should be making around $10 million.

EDIT: I've been pretty consistent on the Harrison Barnes is a terrible contract bandwagon, but I'll elaborate.

BPM --- RAPTOR --- RPM
2012-13 --- [-1.7] --- [N/A] --- [-1.13]
2013-14 --- [-1.6] --- [-3.8] --- [-4.16]
2014-15 --- [0.1] --- [-0.5] --- [0.07]
2015-16 --- [-1.3] --- [-1.7] --- [-0.65]
2016-17 --- [-0.8] --- [-0.2] --- [-0.97]
2017-18 --- [-0.5] --- [-1.5] --- [-1.54]
2018-19 --- [-1.4] --- [-1.3] --- [-0.26]
2019-20 --- [-1.4] --- [-1.4] --- [-1.02]
2020-21 --- [0.2] --- [2.7] --- [-0.09]

In almost every season, on almost every team, he has been a negative value player as a starter. So yes, he has size, and he can shoot, and despite that has still managed to be a net-negative as a starter every year of his career except this season, and as of right now, we have a small sample. Maybe he keeps it up all season, if so, that's great! But it's not the Harrison Barnes we've seen for 612 games before this season.

Just take last year as an example, he was 257th (79th at SF) in RAPTOR and 170th (53rd at SF) in RAPTOR WAR last season, that puts him in a rough group with:

Troy Brown Jr.
Andrew Wiggins
Reggie Bullock
James Ennis
Doug McDermott
Cedi Osman
Trevor Ariza
Cam Johnson
Kyle Anderson
Dillon Brooks

And a good chunk of those guys made $8-$13 million a year, and some were even considered overpaid at that [but I'd say it's roughly appropriate]. So, let's say at best, using these players as approximate peers, that Barnes should be a $13 million/year player (entirely appropriate for a 6th or 7th man, or your 5th best starter - probably the role Barnes should be in, a team's 5th to 7th best player), that has him overpaid by $9 million this year, $7 million the next, and $5 million the year after.

Heck, we can even go to 538's player rater, which rates Barnes as a $4.5 million player for this season (so the rough approximation above may be too high from a standpoint that considers metrics absent anything else): https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-nba-player-projections/harrison-barnes/

Vote: Westbrook. Huge buyout. Can’t shoot in a league that requires spacing.
Nominate: Babyjax13 no really Klay Thompson

Buddy and Barnes are not in this debate. Those aren’t even albatrosses, both descending and relatively easily moveable. Two high demand archetypes (shooter/big wing).

Would have voted Klay if on the list.

Vote: Westbrook
Nom: Hayward

K_chile22 wrote:I'm shocked Klay isn't on here. I would pick him if he were. Who knows how long it will take him to get back on the floor. He's the same age as wall, 4 year max left counting this season. I think he should be the runaway winner here.

I'd vote Westbrook of the guys here. It's him, Wall, Wiggins and Dlo for me. More expensive than Wiggins and Dlo and he's been worse than Wall, and two years older.

Kevin Durant coming back so strong post-achilles means you gotta suspend judging Klay's contract to be bad, imo.

Worst contracts (in order):

- Westbrook (we all agree)
- Kevin Love (old, oft injured)
- Porzingis (the most important ability is availability...he's proven he can't stay on the court so $30M/yr for the next four years for 40-50 games a year is terrible)
- Horford (old, oft injured)
- John Wall (oft injured and lost a step, takes like 40% of the cap)
- B.Griffin (would be higher up, but only two years left)
- Davis Bertans (turning some inflated, shortened season stats into $16M/yr@ 5years is ridiculous)
- D.Russell (high usage failure, no defense)
- Wiggins ($30M/yr for 18ppg and good defense is about $10M too much)
- Draymond ($25m/yr needs to get you more production, no matter how good he is at defense and leadership)
- Kemba Walker ($36M/yr@3 more years for an undersized 30 yr old PG that shoots too much is not good)
- S.Adams (not as highly paid, but his role on a winning team for $20M/yr is nonexistent)

Honorable mention/guys to watch: Siakam (horrible value at $30M/yr so far), Derrick White (average player getting $68M@4yrs), Buddy Hield (SGs who shoot under 40% doesn't cut it).

What happened to all the experts who were calling Gobert the worst contract in the league? Come on, I know you're out there, so don't be shy.

Don't let a minor detail like best record in the NBA get in your way.

Vote: Westbrook

Nominate: Gordon Haywood