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T&T board top 10 worst contracts - Final list

Posted: Mon Feb 8, 2021 5:35 am
by Dr Positivity

Re: T&T board top 10 worst contracts - Final list

Posted: Mon Feb 8, 2021 5:39 am
by Dr Positivity
Klay was hardest to rank, not sure I agree with #2. Otherwise I think the list is pretty spot on.

Re: T&T board top 10 worst contracts - Final list

Posted: Mon Feb 8, 2021 5:57 am
by Catchall
Wow, three Warriors on this list.

Re: T&T board top 10 worst contracts - Final list

Posted: Mon Feb 8, 2021 5:58 am
by NBAhipster24
I think Porzingis should be 9 or 10 but can't argue too much. this is a great list

Re: T&T board top 10 worst contracts - Final list

Posted: Mon Feb 8, 2021 6:16 am
by DoItALL9
If we knew Klay was going to be the same guy would anyone have him on their worse ten list?

One could argue the amount paid vs seasons on the court is extremely high

Re: T&T board top 10 worst contracts - Final list

Posted: Mon Feb 8, 2021 6:22 am
by DoItALL9
Chris Paul was mistakenly put on that last list

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Re: T&T board top 10 worst contracts - Final list

Posted: Mon Feb 8, 2021 6:23 am
by Dr Positivity
DoItALL9 wrote:If we knew Klay was going to be the same guy would anyone have him on their worse ten list?

One could argue the amount paid vs seasons on the court is extremely high


Healthy Klay wouldn't be on the bottom 10, although you could say 40 mil/yr is still not much better than neutral value for him, his advanced stats his last two healthy years were getting pretty mediocre (sub .100 WS, negative BPM). Or to put it another way if it was just the torn ACL and Klay was playing right now I wouldn't have been surprised if he still snuck onto this list ahead of Walker.

Re: T&T board top 10 worst contracts - Final list

Posted: Mon Feb 8, 2021 6:25 am
by Dr Positivity
DoItALL9 wrote:Chris Paul was mistakenly put on that last list

Sent from my LG-H872 using RealGM mobile app


Paul needing picks to trade him for Westbrook after that season suggests his contract was negative

Re: T&T board top 10 worst contracts - Final list

Posted: Mon Feb 8, 2021 12:11 pm
by daoneandonly
List looks about right. Kemba is rightfully on here

Re: T&T board top 10 worst contracts - Final list

Posted: Mon Feb 8, 2021 1:02 pm
by VDT
DoItALL9 wrote:Chris Paul was mistakenly put on that last list

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There is always a recency bias in these lists, which is why you see radical changes from year to year.

For example i think i was the only one that mentioned Lillard this year. However, it is not hard to see that a tiny guard getting 45 mil into their middle 30s is surely going to backfire and with some nagging injuries it will happen sooner than later. Yet because he is still playing at a high level, no one wants to think about the future. I was saying the same about Klay and Kemba before it became common knowledge but it is not hard to predict. Giving huge contract to players in their 30s (particularly short guards) is a very bad bet that you will most likely lose. Only generational players are potentially worth these contracts in their 30s. You dont want to pay a player for what he did in the past, but for what you can reasonably expect him to do in the future.

Re: T&T board top 10 worst contracts - Final list

Posted: Mon Feb 8, 2021 1:24 pm
by PistolPeteJR
Dr Positivity wrote:
DoItALL9 wrote:Chris Paul was mistakenly put on that last list

Sent from my LG-H872 using RealGM mobile app


Paul needing picks to trade him for Westbrook after that season suggests his contract was negative


All it suggests is poor player evaluation.

Re: T&T board top 10 worst contracts - Final list

Posted: Mon Feb 8, 2021 2:22 pm
by shrink
PistolPeteJR wrote:
Dr Positivity wrote:
DoItALL9 wrote:Chris Paul was mistakenly put on that last list

Sent from my LG-H872 using RealGM mobile app


Paul needing picks to trade him for Westbrook after that season suggests his contract was negative


All it suggests is poor player evaluation.

No, it suggests he radically outperformed his expected value.

We are making these evaluations at a point in time, taking a snapshot. People thought age and injuries would seriously hamper Paul, and that was not a bad bet. It was very unlikely Paul would do so well this year - he deserves credit for proving us wrong.

Dr. Positivity is right, It’s hard to argue with the evaluation when he was actually traded for Westbrook in real life, and it took picks to do it.

Re: T&T board top 10 worst contracts - Final list

Posted: Mon Feb 8, 2021 2:36 pm
by Texas Chuck
Well I was always pretty alone on the Chris Paul value train. I get a lot wrong, but I definitely got that one right.

And I don't think the Paul/Westbrook trade proves we had valued Paul correctly. In hindsight the lesson is Westbrook was badly overvalued and Houston was in a difficult spot in that they had to move Paul but still wanted to compete and Harden wanted to play with his old teammate.

Re: T&T board top 10 worst contracts - Final list

Posted: Mon Feb 8, 2021 2:40 pm
by LloydFree
I don't think it's possible for Blake Griffin to be that high on the list, with his contract having so few years left.

Kristaps Porzingis not being on the list is a huge miss. The length of his contract, combined with his health and lack of overall impact on the court (even when he is healthy) makes him a top 5 worst contract. Let alone top 10 worst.

Re: T&T board top 10 worst contracts - Final list

Posted: Mon Feb 8, 2021 4:17 pm
by basketballwacko2
Dr Positivity wrote:Klay was hardest to rank, not sure I agree with #2. Otherwise I think the list is pretty spot on.



I would have went with Love at #3 because he's not playing and at least Wall is. The Russell/Wiggins spot is tough to call one of those guys is as bad as the other. The list is pretty good otherwise.

Re: T&T board top 10 worst contracts - Final list

Posted: Mon Feb 8, 2021 4:39 pm
by FNQ
LloydFree wrote:I don't think it's possible for Blake Griffin to be that high on the list, with his contract having so few years left.

Kristaps Porzingis not being on the list is a huge miss. The length of his contract, combined with his health and lack of overall impact on the court (even when he is healthy) makes him a top 5 worst contract. Let alone top 10 worst.


I agree with KP but Griffin had to make the list because of how little he brings to the table.. of all the people on that list, I can see only one who definitely quit on his team already and its Blake

Re: T&T board top 10 worst contracts - Final list

Posted: Mon Feb 8, 2021 6:00 pm
by daoneandonly
FNQ wrote:
LloydFree wrote:I don't think it's possible for Blake Griffin to be that high on the list, with his contract having so few years left.

Kristaps Porzingis not being on the list is a huge miss. The length of his contract, combined with his health and lack of overall impact on the court (even when he is healthy) makes him a top 5 worst contract. Let alone top 10 worst.


I agree with KP but Griffin had to make the list because of how little he brings to the table.. of all the people on that list, I can see only one who definitely quit on his team already and its Blake


As a Mavs fan, I'd say yes KP should be on the list, in place of Draymond. People can dwell on the triple single, but the Warriors are a completely different team when Draymond is not on the court, as in they are much worse. Dallas has had moments where thye are just as good, if not better when KP sites, so he's the answer

Blake absolutely belong son the list, he's utterly useless these days

Re: T&T board top 10 worst contracts - Final list

Posted: Mon Feb 8, 2021 7:16 pm
by FNQ
daoneandonly wrote:
FNQ wrote:
LloydFree wrote:I don't think it's possible for Blake Griffin to be that high on the list, with his contract having so few years left.

Kristaps Porzingis not being on the list is a huge miss. The length of his contract, combined with his health and lack of overall impact on the court (even when he is healthy) makes him a top 5 worst contract. Let alone top 10 worst.


I agree with KP but Griffin had to make the list because of how little he brings to the table.. of all the people on that list, I can see only one who definitely quit on his team already and its Blake


As a Mavs fan, I'd say yes KP should be on the list, in place of Draymond. People can dwell on the triple single, but the Warriors are a completely different team when Draymond is not on the court, as in they are much worse. Dallas has had moments where thye are just as good, if not better when KP sites, so he's the answer

Blake absolutely belong son the list, he's utterly useless these days


Dray is one of the weird cases where actual value doesnt translate to trade value. I'd imagine that only a few teams would be willing to take him on, and at that point, his value starts becoming depressed. If he somehow burned all his GSW bridges, could we get an expiring for him? I just dont think we could.. Frankly my list would look a lot different, with Dray/Russell higher and Klay/Wall lower.

Something like

Westbrook - Griffin - DLo - Love - Draymond - Wiggins - Wall - Horford - KP - Morris

think its crazy Klay was #2 and as crazy to have Harris getting votes at all.. not a fan of Kemba being up there as well with Morris/Bertrans sitting out there either.

Re: T&T board top 10 worst contracts - Final list

Posted: Mon Feb 8, 2021 7:41 pm
by daoneandonly
FNQ wrote:
daoneandonly wrote:
FNQ wrote:
I agree with KP but Griffin had to make the list because of how little he brings to the table.. of all the people on that list, I can see only one who definitely quit on his team already and its Blake


As a Mavs fan, I'd say yes KP should be on the list, in place of Draymond. People can dwell on the triple single, but the Warriors are a completely different team when Draymond is not on the court, as in they are much worse. Dallas has had moments where thye are just as good, if not better when KP sites, so he's the answer

Blake absolutely belong son the list, he's utterly useless these days


Dray is one of the weird cases where actual value doesnt translate to trade value. I'd imagine that only a few teams would be willing to take him on, and at that point, his value starts becoming depressed. If he somehow burned all his GSW bridges, could we get an expiring for him? I just dont think we could.. Frankly my list would look a lot different, with Dray/Russell higher and Klay/Wall lower.

Something like

Westbrook - Griffin - DLo - Love - Draymond - Wiggins - Wall - Horford - KP - Morris

think its crazy Klay was #2 and as crazy to have Harris getting votes at all.. not a fan of Kemba being up there as well with Morris/Bertrans sitting out there either.


Kemba makes so much more annually than those 2, I think he absolutely belongs. I mean there was a time in the Eat when all you needed was one solid player to make the playoffs, and he barely did that. Now factor in his age and injury concerns, you have to put him in there.

Re: T&T board top 10 worst contracts - Final list

Posted: Mon Feb 8, 2021 8:30 pm
by PistolPeteJR
shrink wrote:
PistolPeteJR wrote:
Dr Positivity wrote:
Paul needing picks to trade him for Westbrook after that season suggests his contract was negative


All it suggests is poor player evaluation.

No, it suggests he radically outperformed his expected value.

We are making these evaluations at a point in time, taking a snapshot. People thought age and injuries would seriously hamper Paul, and that was not a bad bet. It was very unlikely Paul would do so well this year - he deserves credit for proving us wrong.

Dr. Positivity is right, It’s hard to argue with the evaluation when he was actually traded for Westbrook in real life, and it took picks to do it.


"Expected" is a super subjective word and not common. If it was common to this thread, that was a mistake based on poor projection.