HOU/POR - Portland makes a run at post-season Victor-y

[JasonStern]

At the trade deadline, presuming CJ is healthy and Nurkić has a high chance of recovery...

HOU trades: Oladipo ($21.0M)
POR trades: Trent Jr., Jones Jr., Hood ($20.9M)

Salary neutral trade, although Houston would probably need to waive Hood or a Jae'Sean Tate DNP/CD player for roster limit reasons.

Why for HOU:
Oladipo turned down a contract extension and, at 28 on a rebuilding team, is likely gone this off-season. Houston cashes in while they can, acquiring Bird rights to a 22-year old 16ppg scorer to start rebuilding with, a 24 year old "if he could just develop a shot, he would be a total asset" player on a one-year deal, and then Hood's expiring as salary filler. Helping Portland hurts the value of the 2021 1st owed, but the Blazers have been winning without Nurkić and CJ, so getting even a Jones caliber player in the draft at this point is 50/50, let alone a Trent.

Why for POR:
Total Trader Bob Whitsitt move, but hear me out - with a healthy CJ and Nurkić, you're looking at an eight deep of:

Dame/(CJ)/Simons
CJ/(Oladipo)
Oladipo/(Covington)/(Anthony or Little)
Covington/Anthony or Little
Nurkić/Kanter

(with the injured Collins as a 7' wildcard)

While it might not have the top-end talent of the L.A. teams, that's a legit deep team with a solid mix of win-now, veteran, and young players that can play multiple positions that could make a run when healthy. Not a historical "Big Three", but probably the best/most realistic one Portland could put together during Dame's prime. Trent is going to get paid in the off-season, so the difference next-season should they retain Oladipo is likely just Jones' salary and depth. And we all know that top-end talent matters far more than that mid-range talent. Jones was signed as low-risk depth, but his lack of a consistent long-range shot makes him a less than ideal fit in Stotts' offense. Hood is washed and almost certainly waived to free up space to retain Trent or, in this scenario, Oladipo. Meanwhile, the Blazers still keep their young prospects in Little, Simons, and if you still believe he has value - Collins.

[Texas Chuck]

Tate wouldn't be the waived guy as an FYI, but finding one would be a total non-issue for Houston.

Value seems close to fine though a little light as I have Jones a negative on that deal and Trent needs a new contract himself. I think if Portland paid OKC or New York to eat Jones then Houston should take this. They also wouldn't need that extra roster spot.

Now if Houston views Jones as worth a near $10M flier next year they might be fine with it, but I think he's overpaid by double at least.

[cjmcallist]

Only problem here is that GT Jr. is up for a payday this offseason.

I don't know that Oladipo is that much more valuable than GT Jr. though. Certainly he's a better player now, but I don't know about 2 years from now.

[JRoy]

Hard pass on VO.

He is looking for a big payday and has a chance to get it, hopefully somewhere else.

[Waynearchetype]

Yeah no way Portland does this. Both players getting paid, one is young and getting better and the other is older and declining after major injuries.

[Norm2953]

Portland simply cannot afford to sink so much money into their backcourt, especially since nobody
knows when Nurk is coming back. Original prognosis for Nurk from his mid-January injury was at
least 8 weeks which puts his return likely in April.

In the end post season victory even with Nurk is going to need the player that Zach Collins was
supposed to be when he was drafted in 2017. Teams who succeed in the post season need to have
the horses up front to win in a 7 game series.

[BlazersBroncos]

As others have said, I just cant see the money working. If VO was the size of PG13, you find a way to pay them. But as it stands your looking at a PG/SG/SF trio that averages something like 6'3 with a salary average over 30M per (As VO will get overpaid, the market is flush with cash)

[Warriors Analyst]

Dipo for McCollum is a much more sensible deal framework. I don't think that's necessarily a workable deal either, but Dipo has some of the offensive juice McCollum does and improves Portland's defense. The proposed deal here makes Portland even smaller, if such a thing is possible.

[Soulyss]

Dipo isn't going to resign in Portland to be a 6th man. This has Portland giving up DJJ & Trent Jr for a rental. This is an easy pass and exactly the kind of transaction Portland has tried to avoid, especially since we don't know how Nurk and CJ will respond post-injury.

[DaVoiceMaster]

Oladipo just turned down 2/$45M to stay in Houston. The guy is looking for serious money. Yes, Trent Jr is going to get paid, but he would probably jump at 2/$45M. Trent Jr is younger, healthier, still improving, and will come cheaper than Oladipo. It's a fairly easy no for me. Not to mention, Oladipo may not want to stay in Portland. Does Trent Jr want to stay in Portland?

[BlazersBroncos]

Oladipo just turned down 2/$45M to stay in Houston. The guy is looking for serious money. Yes, Trent Jr is going to get paid, but he would probably jump at 2/$45M. Trent Jr is younger, healthier, still improving, and will come cheaper than Oladipo. It's a fairly easy no for me. Not to mention, Oladipo may not want to stay in Portland. Does Trent Jr want to stay in Portland?

I see no reason GTJ wouldnt want to stay. His dad played here, he seems to really look up to Dame, he knows the culture is pretty special. Give him the money he wants and keep getting him 12-15 shots per game and he should see this as home long term IMO.

[Prospect Dong]

Oladipo just turned down 2/$45M to stay in Houston. The guy is looking for serious money. Yes, Trent Jr is going to get paid, but he would probably jump at 2/$45M. Trent Jr is younger, healthier, still improving, and will come cheaper than Oladipo. It's a fairly easy no for me. Not to mention, Oladipo may not want to stay in Portland. Does Trent Jr want to stay in Portland?

These are the sorts of things that usually factor into the salary a player is able to command in free agency, regardless of how much money they are "looking for". You can't argue both that Trent is about as good an asset as Oladipo and will be paid way less when they're both FAs at the end of the year.

I would probably do this for Portland. It's a high variance move for relatively low cost. Odds are it doesn't move the needle much, and you let Dipo walk at the end of the year, maybe getting back a couple of 2nds and a TPE for your troubles. But I'd say there's a >10% chance having Dipo instead of Trent swings a playoff series your way.

I'd think Houston would hold out for a little more - maybe 2nds or a tweak to the protection on those picks? They don't care about this year and Gary Trent's matching rights just aren't that exciting an asset, I'd have thought.

[DaVoiceMaster]

Oladipo just turned down 2/$45M to stay in Houston. The guy is looking for serious money. Yes, Trent Jr is going to get paid, but he would probably jump at 2/$45M. Trent Jr is younger, healthier, still improving, and will come cheaper than Oladipo. It's a fairly easy no for me. Not to mention, Oladipo may not want to stay in Portland. Does Trent Jr want to stay in Portland?

These are the sorts of things that usually factor into the salary a player is able to command in free agency, regardless of how much money they are "looking for". You can't argue both that Trent is about as good an asset as Oladipo and will be paid way less when they're both FAs at the end of the year.

I would probably do this for Portland. It's a high variance move for relatively low cost. Odds are it doesn't move the needle much, and you let Dipo walk at the end of the year, maybe getting back a couple of 2nds and a TPE for your troubles. But I'd say there's a >10% chance having Dipo instead of Trent swings a playoff series your way.

I'd think Houston would hold out for a little more - maybe 2nds or a tweak to the protection on those picks? They don't care about this year and Gary Trent's matching rights just aren't that exciting an asset, I'd have thought.

I never said they were equal. I said, "Trent Jr is younger, healthier, still improving, and will come cheaper than Oladipo."

[Prospect Dong]

Oladipo just turned down 2/$45M to stay in Houston. The guy is looking for serious money. Yes, Trent Jr is going to get paid, but he would probably jump at 2/$45M. Trent Jr is younger, healthier, still improving, and will come cheaper than Oladipo. It's a fairly easy no for me. Not to mention, Oladipo may not want to stay in Portland. Does Trent Jr want to stay in Portland?

These are the sorts of things that usually factor into the salary a player is able to command in free agency, regardless of how much money they are "looking for". You can't argue both that Trent is about as good an asset as Oladipo and will be paid way less when they're both FAs at the end of the year.

I would probably do this for Portland. It's a high variance move for relatively low cost. Odds are it doesn't move the needle much, and you let Dipo walk at the end of the year, maybe getting back a couple of 2nds and a TPE for your troubles. But I'd say there's a >10% chance having Dipo instead of Trent swings a playoff series your way.

I'd think Houston would hold out for a little more - maybe 2nds or a tweak to the protection on those picks? They don't care about this year and Gary Trent's matching rights just aren't that exciting an asset, I'd have thought.

I never said they were equal. I said, "Trent Jr is younger, healthier, still improving, and will come cheaper than Oladipo."

Sure. I think making it "While Dipo is clearly the better player overall, Trent Jr is...." is probably relevant to the question of whether you should trade them for each other, and makes it clearer that you're weighing the benefits against the costs. If Trent's all those things and cheaper too, the talent gap must be pretty large.

I'm not saying your conclusion is wrong- NBD.

[DaVoiceMaster]

These are the sorts of things that usually factor into the salary a player is able to command in free agency, regardless of how much money they are "looking for". You can't argue both that Trent is about as good an asset as Oladipo and will be paid way less when they're both FAs at the end of the year.

I would probably do this for Portland. It's a high variance move for relatively low cost. Odds are it doesn't move the needle much, and you let Dipo walk at the end of the year, maybe getting back a couple of 2nds and a TPE for your troubles. But I'd say there's a >10% chance having Dipo instead of Trent swings a playoff series your way.

I'd think Houston would hold out for a little more - maybe 2nds or a tweak to the protection on those picks? They don't care about this year and Gary Trent's matching rights just aren't that exciting an asset, I'd have thought.

I never said they were equal. I said, "Trent Jr is younger, healthier, still improving, and will come cheaper than Oladipo."

Sure. I think making it "While Dipo is clearly the better player overall, Trent Jr is...." is probably relevant to the question of whether you should trade them for each other, and makes it clearer that you're weighing the benefits against the costs. If Trent's all those things and cheaper too, the talent gap must be pretty large.

I'm not saying your conclusion is wrong- NBD.

Not my problem if you can't read or comprehend what someone else says. Given what Trent Jr provides and what he will cost compared to Oladipo, I will take Trent Jr. If you want to disagree, that's fine.

[Prospect Dong]

I never said they were equal. I said, "Trent Jr is younger, healthier, still improving, and will come cheaper than Oladipo."

Sure. I think making it "While Dipo is clearly the better player overall, Trent Jr is...." is probably relevant to the question of whether you should trade them for each other, and makes it clearer that you're weighing the benefits against the costs. If Trent's all those things and cheaper too, the talent gap must be pretty large.

I'm not saying your conclusion is wrong- NBD.

Not my problem if you can't read or comprehend what someone else says. Given what Trent Jr provides and what he will cost compared to Oladipo, I will take Trent Jr. If you want to disagree, that's fine.

I will take Trent Jr. If you want to disagree, that's fine

I'm not saying your conclusion is wrong

How would you say that whole reading comprehension thing is working out for you chief?

I think you keep getting hung up on the difference in cost as somehow unrelated to the difference in player quality. There's obviously an argument around fit, or around ability to pay - like the Blazers can't afford Dipo, even though he's better - but you're not really making it.

[matt6715]

Trent > Dipo for the Blazers team, you can't convince me otherwise

[JRoy]

Would much rather keep GTJr than make this kind of move for VO.

Love his defense but some other team can overpay him.

[DaVoiceMaster]

Sure. I think making it "While Dipo is clearly the better player overall, Trent Jr is...." is probably relevant to the question of whether you should trade them for each other, and makes it clearer that you're weighing the benefits against the costs. If Trent's all those things and cheaper too, the talent gap must be pretty large.

I'm not saying your conclusion is wrong- NBD.

Not my problem if you can't read or comprehend what someone else says. Given what Trent Jr provides and what he will cost compared to Oladipo, I will take Trent Jr. If you want to disagree, that's fine.

I will take Trent Jr. If you want to disagree, that's fine

I'm not saying your conclusion is wrong

How would you say that whole reading comprehension thing is working out for you chief?

I think you keep getting hung up on the difference in cost as somehow unrelated to the difference in player quality. There's obviously an argument around fit, or around ability to pay - like the Blazers can't afford Dipo, even though he's better - but you're not really making it.

You're the one that is hung up because I said I would take Trent Jr over Oladipo considering talent and cost. I never said Trent Jr was better as you seem to want to believe. I dont know why you are so hung up on my post. Move on already. Jump on one of the other posters saying they'd take Trent Jr over Oladipo.

[Prospect Dong]

Not my problem if you can't read or comprehend what someone else says. Given what Trent Jr provides and what he will cost compared to Oladipo, I will take Trent Jr. If you want to disagree, that's fine.

I will take Trent Jr. If you want to disagree, that's fine

I'm not saying your conclusion is wrong

How would you say that whole reading comprehension thing is working out for you chief?

I think you keep getting hung up on the difference in cost as somehow unrelated to the difference in player quality. There's obviously an argument around fit, or around ability to pay - like the Blazers can't afford Dipo, even though he's better - but you're not really making it.

You're the one that is hung up because I said I would take Trent Jr over Oladipo considering talent and cost. I never said Trent Jr was better as you seem to want to believe. I dont know why you are so hung up on my post. Move on already. Jump on one of the other posters saying they'd take Trent Jr over Oladipo.

That's the bit I couldn't see in the original post I disagreed with. That conclusion's fine, if still a bit strange because the difference in cost is just going to reflect the difference in talent, but comparing them without mentioning the talent gap just looks like you're trying to avoid talking about it.