Prokorov wrote: Topofthekey wrote: Prokorov wrote:The 8th seed is a play-in seed
I think it is a bit misleading to say something like "lifting a team from top 3 status to fringe playoffs" as if that is a monumental difference. It is also a big misleading to say "competing for the top 3 pick"The wizards are basically just as close to the playoffs (3.5 games) as they are the 3 seed (3 games)
. so if you are going to say the wiz are competing for a 3 seed, then you have to also say they are competing for the playoffs.
In either event, this trade doesnt really help the Wiz short or long term. its a hedge that gets them a play-in game (Maybe). They should stand put and if they make the play in great, if not top 5 pick. or sell off beal for an under 25 all-star like Sabonis. but dont touch those future pieces for someone who doesnt make you at least alock 4-6 seed
To the first part in bold, yes, which is why I said Pacers are a fringe playoffs team. Is there any part of that statement that you disagree with?
As for the second part in bold, I mean, if you want to be technical about it, even the 7th seed is in contention to land a top 3 pick, isn't it?
Which part is misleading?
I the parts i found misleading where:
1) I said the pacers were figthing for a play-in seed. you stated "no, he has them chasing the 8th playoff seed." The 8th seed is a play-in seed (see above image)
2) You said the wiz are/pacers would be if you bump them down to 17 wins "chasing the 3 seed". at 17 wins i pointed out that they are just as close to chasing the playoffs as they are to chasing the 3 seed. I think saying something like "he has them chasing the 8th seed" and "otherwise would be chasing the 3 seed" is implying there is a big difference between the 2, which there is not
Fact remains that if you removed Sabonis' 4.9 winshares from the Pacers, with a record of 17-32, they would have a 42.1% chance of landing a top 4 pick, as per tankathonhttp://www.tankathon.com
Which is why I said, Sabonis lifted the Pacers from being a team that is in contention of landing a top 3 pick in the draft, which they would be without him, to a fringe playoffs team with him
The trade has Rui/Bertans and their 3.1 win shares coming back. which would put the pacers at a 20-29 record (20.3% chance of a top 3 pick).
1) I don't understand. So are you disagreeing with me that Sabonis is helping the Pacers chase the 8th seed?
2) There absolutely is a huge difference between where Pacers are right now, and where they theoretically would be without Sabonis
With Sabonis, they are currently the 9th seed, chasing the 8th seed, being 2 games behind. Without Sabonis, they would be 7 games behind the 8th seed
That is absolutely a huge difference
And I'm not sure whether you are trolling or genuinely confused, but no, you cannot combine the winshares of multiple players like that, and compare it to the winshares of one single player, that's just erroneous. For you to count BOTH Rui and Bertans' winshares, someone else in addition to Sabonis will need to make room for them in the Pacers rotation. Bertans is averaging 24.5mpg right now. Closest player on the Pacers with that playing time is McDermott. For you to slot in Bertans' winshares, you would also have to remove McDermott's winshares, which is 2.8. So yes, while Pacers are gaining 3.1 winshares from Rui + Bertans, they will be losing 4.9 + 2.8 winshares from Sabonis and McDermott. In other words, they are still losing 4.6 winshares nett, which still puts them at 17-22