Which 2021 Pick Are Top 10 2020 Picks Worth?

Moderators: Texas Chuck, pacers33granger, HartfordWhalers, Mamba4Goat, Andre Roberstan, Trader_Joe, BullyKing, loserX

NYG
General Manager
Posts: 7,815
And1: 1,315
Joined: Aug 09, 2017

Which 2021 Pick Are Top 10 2020 Picks Worth? 

Post#1 » by NYG » Thu Apr 8, 2021 12:06 am

Let’s assume a total vacuum where salary matching and team need isn’t an issue. From purely a value standpoint, what 2021 pick could the top 10 2020 picks return in a trade?

1. Timberwolves draft Anthony Edwards

2. Warriors draft James Wiseman

3. Hornets draft LaMelo Ball

4. Bulls draft Patrick Williams

5. Cavaliers draft Isaac Okoro

6. Hawks draft Onyeka Okongwu

7. Pistons draft Killian Hayes

8. Knicks draft Obi Toppin

9. Wizards draft Deni Avdija

10. Suns draft Jalen Smith
tmorgan
General Manager
Posts: 8,728
And1: 3,773
Joined: Feb 04, 2005
Location: San Francisco, CA
   

Re: Which 2021 Pick Are Top 10 2020 Picks Worth? 

Post#2 » by tmorgan » Thu Apr 8, 2021 12:14 am

I’m not as sold on Kuminga as some, so I see a drop off after four picks, another smaller one after five, and solid but not standout depth throughout the lottery.

Given what they’ve shown this year, i don’t think anyone but Edwards or Ball gets you into the top 4. I personally would rather have any of the top 4 than Edwards, but I can see arguments being made.

Ball is the interesting case. He still has flaws, but they are much less pronounced than expected, and he’s already shown he can contribute *significantly* at the NBA level. So, it comes down to one extra year of control and a risk-taking or risk-averse GM and their opinion of Cunningham, Green, Suggs, and Mobley. My bet is that LaMelo could net you the first pick straight up, because most GMs would take the sure 8 over a small chance at a 9 or 10 rookie.
NYG
General Manager
Posts: 7,815
And1: 1,315
Joined: Aug 09, 2017

Re: Which 2021 Pick Are Top 10 2020 Picks Worth? 

Post#3 » by NYG » Thu Apr 8, 2021 12:17 am

tmorgan wrote:I’m not as sold on Kuminga as some, so I see a drop off after four picks, another smaller one after five, and solid but not standout depth throughout the lottery.

Given what they’ve shown this year, i don’t think anyone but Edwards or Ball gets you into the top 4. I personally would rather have any of the top 4 than Edwards, but I can see arguments being made.

Ball is the interesting case. He still has flaws, but they are much less pronounced than expected, and he’s already shown he can contribute *significantly* at the NBA level. So, it comes down to one extra year of control and a risk-taking or risk-averse GM and their opinion of Cunningham, Green, Suggs, and Mobley. My bet is that LaMelo could net you the first pick straight up, because most GMs would take the sure 8 over a small chance at a 9 or 10 rookie.


Does anyone else get a 2021 Lotto Pick?
tmorgan
General Manager
Posts: 8,728
And1: 3,773
Joined: Feb 04, 2005
Location: San Francisco, CA
   

Re: Which 2021 Pick Are Top 10 2020 Picks Worth? 

Post#4 » by tmorgan » Thu Apr 8, 2021 12:19 am

NYG wrote:
tmorgan wrote:I’m not as sold on Kuminga as some, so I see a drop off after four picks, another smaller one after five, and solid but not standout depth throughout the lottery.

Given what they’ve shown this year, i don’t think anyone but Edwards or Ball gets you into the top 4. I personally would rather have any of the top 4 than Edwards, but I can see arguments being made.

Ball is the interesting case. He still has flaws, but they are much less pronounced than expected, and he’s already shown he can contribute *significantly* at the NBA level. So, it comes down to one extra year of control and a risk-taking or risk-averse GM and their opinion of Cunningham, Green, Suggs, and Mobley. My bet is that LaMelo could net you the first pick straight up, because most GMs would take the sure 8 over a small chance at a 9 or 10 rookie.


Does anyone else get a 2021 Lotto Pick?


Lottery at all? Sure, I think so. Pat Williams, Wiseman (on long term potential), Okongwu, and maybe some others (Avdija?) could probably get you into the back end, at least.

To say the class outside of Ball and Edwards has been underwhelming is true, though.
tmorgan
General Manager
Posts: 8,728
And1: 3,773
Joined: Feb 04, 2005
Location: San Francisco, CA
   

Re: Which 2021 Pick Are Top 10 2020 Picks Worth? 

Post#5 » by tmorgan » Thu Apr 8, 2021 12:21 am

And to address this now from a homer perspective.... what pick would I trade Saddiq Bey for? Top 4, certainly, too much talent there to miss out on. Late lottery? No, I don’t think so.

There are probably others like Bey I’m not thinking of.
NYG
General Manager
Posts: 7,815
And1: 1,315
Joined: Aug 09, 2017

Re: Which 2021 Pick Are Top 10 2020 Picks Worth? 

Post#6 » by NYG » Thu Apr 8, 2021 12:22 am

tmorgan wrote:
NYG wrote:
tmorgan wrote:I’m not as sold on Kuminga as some, so I see a drop off after four picks, another smaller one after five, and solid but not standout depth throughout the lottery.

Given what they’ve shown this year, i don’t think anyone but Edwards or Ball gets you into the top 4. I personally would rather have any of the top 4 than Edwards, but I can see arguments being made.

Ball is the interesting case. He still has flaws, but they are much less pronounced than expected, and he’s already shown he can contribute *significantly* at the NBA level. So, it comes down to one extra year of control and a risk-taking or risk-averse GM and their opinion of Cunningham, Green, Suggs, and Mobley. My bet is that LaMelo could net you the first pick straight up, because most GMs would take the sure 8 over a small chance at a 9 or 10 rookie.


Does anyone else get a 2021 Lotto Pick?


Lottery at all? Sure, I think so. Pat Williams, Wiseman (on long term potential), Okongwu, and maybe some others (Avdija?) could probably get you into the back end, at least.

To say the class outside of Ball and Edwards has been underwhelming is true, though.


I wonder how high Wiseman + 13 gets Golden State or if Avdija and Wiz ‘21 1st gets Washington into the top 3?
tmorgan
General Manager
Posts: 8,728
And1: 3,773
Joined: Feb 04, 2005
Location: San Francisco, CA
   

Re: Which 2021 Pick Are Top 10 2020 Picks Worth? 

Post#7 » by tmorgan » Thu Apr 8, 2021 12:25 am

NYG wrote:I wonder how high Wiseman + 13 gets Golden State or if Avdija and Wiz ‘21 1st gets Washington into the top 3?


Unless that Wiz #1 is top 5 already, I can confidently say neither.
NYG
General Manager
Posts: 7,815
And1: 1,315
Joined: Aug 09, 2017

Re: Which 2021 Pick Are Top 10 2020 Picks Worth? 

Post#8 » by NYG » Thu Apr 8, 2021 12:31 am

tmorgan wrote:
NYG wrote:I wonder how high Wiseman + 13 gets Golden State or if Avdija and Wiz ‘21 1st gets Washington into the top 3?


Unless that Wiz #1 is top 5 already, I can confidently say neither.


Where do you have Wiseman and 13 getting the Warriors to?
tmorgan
General Manager
Posts: 8,728
And1: 3,773
Joined: Feb 04, 2005
Location: San Francisco, CA
   

Re: Which 2021 Pick Are Top 10 2020 Picks Worth? 

Post#9 » by tmorgan » Thu Apr 8, 2021 12:41 am

NYG wrote:
tmorgan wrote:
NYG wrote:I wonder how high Wiseman + 13 gets Golden State or if Avdija and Wiz ‘21 1st gets Washington into the top 3?


Unless that Wiz #1 is top 5 already, I can confidently say neither.


Where do you have Wiseman and 13 getting the Warriors to?


There’s quite a bit of shine off Wiseman, and he gets paid like the #2 pick he was. Gonna be a couple years before he doesn’t hurt you on defense, assuming it ever happens. #13 in this draft is down in the “big upside, big risk” section, or the “solid looking guy that likely won’t ever make an all-star team” region, as usual. The combo of those two assets isn’t going to get you Cade, Mobley, Suggs or Green.

Now if I was holding the 5th pick, given that I’m lower on Kuminga than most, I’d at least consider it if my team wasn’t sniffing contention next year. My team, of course, is not... so yeah, I’d think about it.
User avatar
babyjax13
RealGM
Posts: 20,619
And1: 7,178
Joined: Jul 02, 2006
Location: Tuscaloosa Alabama
Contact:
     

Re: Which 2021 Pick Are Top 10 2020 Picks Worth? 

Post#10 » by babyjax13 » Thu Apr 8, 2021 1:19 am

1. Timberwolves draft Anthony Edwards >>> possibly 5th, probably 6th

2. Warriors draft James Wiseman >>> 8th

3. Hornets draft LaMelo Ball >>> possibly 1st, definitely 2nd

4. Bulls draft Patrick Williams >>> possibly 5th, probably 6th

5. Cavaliers draft Isaac Okoro >>> 8th/9th

6. Hawks draft Onyeka Okongwu >>> 8th/9th

7. Pistons draft Killian Hayes >>> 8th/9th

8. Knicks draft Obi Toppin >>> 20-25

9. Wizards draft Deni Avdija >>> 9th/10th

10. Suns draft Jalen Smith >>> 20-25
Image

JazzMatt13 wrote:just because I think aliens probably have to do with JFK, doesn't mean my theory that Jazz will never get Wiggins, isn't true.

JColl
Coeur
Analyst
Posts: 3,431
And1: 568
Joined: Jan 18, 2016

Re: Which 2021 Pick Are Top 10 2020 Picks Worth? 

Post#11 » by Coeur » Thu Apr 8, 2021 2:41 am

NYG wrote:
1. Timberwolves draft Anthony Edwards< Cunningham

2. Warriors draft James Wiseman< Mobley

3. Hornets draft LaMelo Ball= Green

4. Bulls draft Patrick Williams< Kuminga

5. Cavaliers draft Isaac Okoro< Suggs

6. Hawks draft Onyeka Okongwu < Sengun

7. Pistons draft Killian Hayes< Bouknight

8. Knicks draft Obi Toppin< Scottie Barnes

9. Wizards draft Deni Avdija < Keon Johnson

10. Suns draft Jalen Smith
< Jalen Johnson
Colbinii
RealGM
Posts: 16,054
And1: 8,863
Joined: Feb 13, 2013

Re: Which 2021 Pick Are Top 10 2020 Picks Worth? 

Post#12 » by Colbinii » Thu Apr 8, 2021 3:38 am

NYG wrote:
tmorgan wrote:
NYG wrote:I wonder how high Wiseman + 13 gets Golden State or if Avdija and Wiz ‘21 1st gets Washington into the top 3?


Unless that Wiz #1 is top 5 already, I can confidently say neither.


Where do you have Wiseman and 13 getting the Warriors to?


I would have that at 9-12.
tsherkin wrote:Locked due to absence of adult conversation.


penbeast0 wrote:Guys, if you don't have anything to say, don't post.


E-Balla wrote:LeBron is Jeff George.
Colbinii
RealGM
Posts: 16,054
And1: 8,863
Joined: Feb 13, 2013

Re: Which 2021 Pick Are Top 10 2020 Picks Worth? 

Post#13 » by Colbinii » Thu Apr 8, 2021 3:40 am

babyjax13 wrote:1. Timberwolves draft Anthony Edwards >>> possibly 5th, probably 6th

2. Warriors draft James Wiseman >>> 8th

3. Hornets draft LaMelo Ball >>> possibly 1st, definitely 2nd

4. Bulls draft Patrick Williams >>> possibly 5th, probably 6th

5. Cavaliers draft Isaac Okoro >>> 8th/9th

6. Hawks draft Onyeka Okongwu >>> 8th/9th

7. Pistons draft Killian Hayes >>> 8th/9th

8. Knicks draft Obi Toppin >>> 20-25

9. Wizards draft Deni Avdija >>> 9th/10th

10. Suns draft Jalen Smith >>> 20-25


I dont think Hayes, Deni, or Okongwu get you back in the lottery.
tsherkin wrote:Locked due to absence of adult conversation.


penbeast0 wrote:Guys, if you don't have anything to say, don't post.


E-Balla wrote:LeBron is Jeff George.
User avatar
babyjax13
RealGM
Posts: 20,619
And1: 7,178
Joined: Jul 02, 2006
Location: Tuscaloosa Alabama
Contact:
     

Re: Which 2021 Pick Are Top 10 2020 Picks Worth? 

Post#14 » by babyjax13 » Thu Apr 8, 2021 3:41 am

Colbinii wrote:
babyjax13 wrote:1. Timberwolves draft Anthony Edwards >>> possibly 5th, probably 6th

2. Warriors draft James Wiseman >>> 8th

3. Hornets draft LaMelo Ball >>> possibly 1st, definitely 2nd

4. Bulls draft Patrick Williams >>> possibly 5th, probably 6th

5. Cavaliers draft Isaac Okoro >>> 8th/9th

6. Hawks draft Onyeka Okongwu >>> 8th/9th

7. Pistons draft Killian Hayes >>> 8th/9th

8. Knicks draft Obi Toppin >>> 20-25

9. Wizards draft Deni Avdija >>> 9th/10th

10. Suns draft Jalen Smith >>> 20-25


I dont think Hayes, Deni, or Okongwu get you back in the lottery.


Deni has been fairly good when he gets burn and his mobility + shooting are better than I thought they'd be, so I like him. Okongwu and Hayes have been impacted by injuries, and I still like what they bring, but I get it.
Image

JazzMatt13 wrote:just because I think aliens probably have to do with JFK, doesn't mean my theory that Jazz will never get Wiggins, isn't true.

JColl
User avatar
bondom34
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 65,254
And1: 49,201
Joined: Mar 01, 2013

Re: Which 2021 Pick Are Top 10 2020 Picks Worth? 

Post#15 » by bondom34 » Thu Apr 8, 2021 3:48 am

Edit:

NYG wrote:...



This probably would get some more knowledgeable draft folks on the draft forum and not trade forum. At least in terms of draft stuff.
MyUniBroDavis wrote: he was like YALL PEOPLE WHO DOUBT ME WILL SEE YALLS STATS ARE WRONG I HAVE THE BIG BRAIN PLAYS MUCHO NASTY BIG BRAIN BIG CHUNGUS BRAIN YOU BOYS ON UR BBALL REFERENCE NO UNDERSTANDO
gswhoops
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 29,889
And1: 1,858
Joined: Apr 27, 2005
   

Re: Which 2021 Pick Are Top 10 2020 Picks Worth? 

Post#16 » by gswhoops » Thu Apr 8, 2021 3:48 am

In general, I think you have to assume that a guy would get a lower pick than where they were drafted unless they’ve already outplayed their draft position, that combined with this being a stronger draft and I don’t see a lot of guys fetching the same or higher than where they were drafted.

That being said, I don’t see a huge separation in this class between 6 and like 12-14 so it’s hard to draw bright lines in that range

Edwards: 4-6
Wiseman: 6-8
Ball: 2-4
Williams: 5-6
Okoro: 8-12
Okongwu: 8-12
Hayes: 8-12
Toppin: 13-17
Avdija: 8-12
Smith: 15-20
Colbinii
RealGM
Posts: 16,054
And1: 8,863
Joined: Feb 13, 2013

Re: Which 2021 Pick Are Top 10 2020 Picks Worth? 

Post#17 » by Colbinii » Thu Apr 8, 2021 3:48 am

babyjax13 wrote:
Colbinii wrote:
babyjax13 wrote:1. Timberwolves draft Anthony Edwards >>> possibly 5th, probably 6th

2. Warriors draft James Wiseman >>> 8th

3. Hornets draft LaMelo Ball >>> possibly 1st, definitely 2nd

4. Bulls draft Patrick Williams >>> possibly 5th, probably 6th

5. Cavaliers draft Isaac Okoro >>> 8th/9th

6. Hawks draft Onyeka Okongwu >>> 8th/9th

7. Pistons draft Killian Hayes >>> 8th/9th

8. Knicks draft Obi Toppin >>> 20-25

9. Wizards draft Deni Avdija >>> 9th/10th

10. Suns draft Jalen Smith >>> 20-25


I dont think Hayes, Deni, or Okongwu get you back in the lottery.


Deni has been fairly good when he gets burn and his mobility + shooting are better than I thought they'd be, so I like him. Okongwu and Hayes have been impacted by injuries, and I still like what they bring, but I get it.


Yeah, I would just prefer some 4 years vs 3 on a rookie deal and the potential of more than all 3 than what they actually are--but I like Deni as well.

I'm trying to be objective in some of this (I wouldn't trade any lottery pick for Wiseman personally) but Deni definitely has promise.
tsherkin wrote:Locked due to absence of adult conversation.


penbeast0 wrote:Guys, if you don't have anything to say, don't post.


E-Balla wrote:LeBron is Jeff George.
NYG
General Manager
Posts: 7,815
And1: 1,315
Joined: Aug 09, 2017

Re: Which 2021 Pick Are Top 10 2020 Picks Worth? 

Post#18 » by NYG » Thu Apr 8, 2021 3:55 am

Colbinii wrote:
babyjax13 wrote:
Colbinii wrote:
I dont think Hayes, Deni, or Okongwu get you back in the lottery.


Deni has been fairly good when he gets burn and his mobility + shooting are better than I thought they'd be, so I like him. Okongwu and Hayes have been impacted by injuries, and I still like what they bring, but I get it.


Yeah, I would just prefer some 4 years vs 3 on a rookie deal and the potential of more than all 3 than what they actually are--but I like Deni as well.

I'm trying to be objective in some of this (I wouldn't trade any lottery pick for Wiseman personally) but Deni definitely has promise.


I think Washington is really going to try to get into the Top 3-5 using Deni and their own pick if its out of that range post-lottery
User avatar
bondom34
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 65,254
And1: 49,201
Joined: Mar 01, 2013

Re: Which 2021 Pick Are Top 10 2020 Picks Worth? 

Post#19 » by bondom34 » Thu Apr 8, 2021 3:59 am

NYG wrote:
Colbinii wrote:
babyjax13 wrote:
Deni has been fairly good when he gets burn and his mobility + shooting are better than I thought they'd be, so I like him. Okongwu and Hayes have been impacted by injuries, and I still like what they bring, but I get it.


Yeah, I would just prefer some 4 years vs 3 on a rookie deal and the potential of more than all 3 than what they actually are--but I like Deni as well.

I'm trying to be objective in some of this (I wouldn't trade any lottery pick for Wiseman personally) but Deni definitely has promise.


I think Washington is really going to try to get into the Top 3-5 using Deni and their own pick if its out of that range post-lottery

This year's top 5 isn't really one I can see being traded in to barring entirely emptying a ton of assets.
MyUniBroDavis wrote: he was like YALL PEOPLE WHO DOUBT ME WILL SEE YALLS STATS ARE WRONG I HAVE THE BIG BRAIN PLAYS MUCHO NASTY BIG BRAIN BIG CHUNGUS BRAIN YOU BOYS ON UR BBALL REFERENCE NO UNDERSTANDO
Colbinii
RealGM
Posts: 16,054
And1: 8,863
Joined: Feb 13, 2013

Re: Which 2021 Pick Are Top 10 2020 Picks Worth? 

Post#20 » by Colbinii » Thu Apr 8, 2021 4:01 am

NYG wrote:
Colbinii wrote:
babyjax13 wrote:
Deni has been fairly good when he gets burn and his mobility + shooting are better than I thought they'd be, so I like him. Okongwu and Hayes have been impacted by injuries, and I still like what they bring, but I get it.


Yeah, I would just prefer some 4 years vs 3 on a rookie deal and the potential of more than all 3 than what they actually are--but I like Deni as well.

I'm trying to be objective in some of this (I wouldn't trade any lottery pick for Wiseman personally) but Deni definitely has promise.


I think Washington is really going to try to get into the Top 3-5 using Deni and their own pick if its out of that range post-lottery


I'm sure a lot of teams will try to trade up...I wouldn't sell out of the top 5 unless the kitchen sink with new appliances was offered though.

This goes to show how **** of a situation the Wizards are in--Tons of middling prospects.
tsherkin wrote:Locked due to absence of adult conversation.


penbeast0 wrote:Guys, if you don't have anything to say, don't post.


E-Balla wrote:LeBron is Jeff George.

Return to Trades and Transactions