RealGM

(Assuming current draft order)

Simple deal:
Pacers trade: Turner+Lamb for Horford+#11 (via Charlotte)
Hornets trade: Rozier+#11 for Turner+#18 (via OKC)
OKC trade: Horford+#18 for Lamb+#33 (via NY)
NY trades: #33 for Rozier

WHY FOR THE PACERS?
1). They get a replacement center in Horford for Turner while picking up #11.

WHY FOR THE HORNETS?
1). They get their defensive center in Turner (signed for two more years vs Rozier (who is expiring and will be expensive to resign)). They also only move down 7 spots in the draft.

WHY FOR THE THUNDER?
1). They save about 20 million (difference in salary between Horford & Lamb) while only moving down 14 spots in the draft.

WHY FOR THE KNICKS?
1). With 2 first rounders, they can afford to give up #33. They have tons of cap space this summer. Instead of wasting it on a sub-standard class, they use it to get Rozier (who is expiring) to stay competitive while maintaining future flexibility.

I think if I were OKC I’d rather just pay the difference and acquire Turner (he could be absorbed into a TPE) and then find a different deal for Horford. OKC doesn’t need to really cut salary if it costs them draft picks.

By the way Turner is on the top of my list for players to acquire if OKC decides the tank is over this offseason

OKC finds the extra value and cuts the Hornets out

Dn4sty wrote:I think if I were OKC I’d rather just pay the difference and acquire Turner (he could be absorbed into a TPE) and then find a different deal for Horford. OKC doesn’t need to really cut salary if it costs them draft picks.

By the way Turner is on the top of my list for players to acquire if OKC decides the tank is over this offseason

Indy still wants to remain competitive (their owner refuses to tank). Horford actually helps replace Turner while they get another relatively high pick at #11. Any Turner trade would require a first rounder. If OKC wanted Turner, I'd figure they'd have to give up #18 anyways.

Pacers do not need a replacement center for Turner. We need a replacement power forward.

Sent from my phone.

Again, there has to be a reason to trade Turner.

Trading him "just because" makes no sense. Al Horford does nothing for the Pacers. The Pacers value Turner much more than the 11th pick, and Horford isn't incentive, in fact, it would make sense for the Pacers to actively avoid adding another Center, especially a 35 year old center making 26 million.

I mean, why? Why would the Pacers do this? Makes no sense at all.

mhd wrote:

Dn4sty wrote:I think if I were OKC I’d rather just pay the difference and acquire Turner (he could be absorbed into a TPE) and then find a different deal for Horford. OKC doesn’t need to really cut salary if it costs them draft picks.

By the way Turner is on the top of my list for players to acquire if OKC decides the tank is over this offseason

Indy still wants to remain competitive (their owner refuses to tank). Horford actually helps replace Turner while they get another relatively high pick at #11. Any Turner trade would require a first rounder. If OKC wanted Turner, I'd figure they'd have to give up #18 anyways.

I think OKC if they decided to compete could make a compelling offer for Turner. I doubt it’s the direction they go but if they do I’d rather just pay the difference from 18 to 11 if that makes sense

mhd wrote:
Simple deal:
Pacers trade: Turner+Lamb for Horford+#11 (via Charlotte)


WHY FOR THE PACERS?
1). They get a replacement center in Horford for Turner while picking up #11.

We infinitely don't need a replacement center if we deal Turner. We'd be starting Sabonis at the 5, and playing him 34-ish minutes a night. We also REALLY LOVE our young recent 1st round draft pick backup Goga Bitadze, and he's ready for the remainder of those minutes (and some more). We'd likely look to pick up a 3rd center, but a vet minimum guy to sit on the bench and soothsay the locker room. Not a guy that takes up a massive amount of cap and won't be necessary.

The value is way off

Horford is negative value to the Pacers

They wouldn't trade Turner for #11 alone, let alone #11 with a negative asset attached

Also, your evaluation looks odd

You have Rozier's value as #33 (Knicks portion of the trade)

That in effect makes the Hornets portion of the trade #11 + #33 for Turner + #18

I don't think moving down 7 spots and then attaching #33 gets them Myles Turner

I don't think OKC uses 18 to get off of Horford. Would rather just keep him.

I also definitely agree that if moving Turner Horford doesn’t really make any sense for Indiana

No from this Hornets fan. Pulling out of the Turner talks. Holmes is #1 on my list. Hornets are young, still developing and need to leverage cap before surrending assets.

MasterIchiro wrote:No from this Hornets fan. Pulling out of the Turner talks. Holmes is #1 on my list. Hornets are young, still developing and need to leverage cap before surrending assets.

Is Charlotte resigning Monk and Graham or signing a FA? Because they can’t do both. They have about 30m in space before factoring in cap holds and roster charges, probably 25 with the charges. Monks hold is 16, Graham is 4, assuming you waive holds on all the other guys.

Anyway, I don’t think testing the FA waters is a bad idea, but you have to be prepared to gamble and lose. And the price in the OP is super reasonable.

MoneyTalks41890 wrote:

MasterIchiro wrote:No from this Hornets fan. Pulling out of the Turner talks. Holmes is #1 on my list. Hornets are young, still developing and need to leverage cap before surrending assets.

Is Charlotte resigning Monk and Graham or signing a FA? Because they can’t do both. They have about 30m in space before factoring in cap holds and roster charges, probably 25 with the charges. Monks hold is 16, Graham is 4, assuming you waive holds on all the other guys.

Anyway, I don’t think testing the FA waters is a bad idea, but you have to be prepared to gamble and lose. And the price in the OP is super reasonable.

We're at 29 including the Martin Twins who are end of bench players. When Graham and Monk are healthy JB doesn't have minutes for them. Cut them and we bump up to 32.4 cap. Graham's cap hold is 4.7. Monk would need to be signed quickly for under his 13 million hold. Get him at 9 and Hornets have 18.7. Before any of that, deduct the cap hold on pick 11. You're in the ballpark for Holmes. Hornets have Vernon Carey Jr at 1.7 and Nick Richards at 1.5. McDaniels is 1.7.

There will be some cap casualties but it won't be Graham or Monk. Those guys are first off the bench.

And you're assuming bidding and missing out on Holmes is a pure gamble. There would be contingency plans leveraging cap preferable to surrending Rozier plus pick 11. I really like 6-12. 1-5 is a dream but 6-12 is a pretty flat tier. And of course Rozier is a bucket getter who has a reputation of being the most dedicated worker, especially in the off-season. He's great setting culture.

MasterIchiro wrote:And you're assuming bidding and missing out on Holmes is a pure gamble. There would be contingency plans leveraging cap preferable to surrending Rozier plus pick 11. I really like 6-12. 1-5 is a dream but 6-12 is a pretty flat tier. And of course Rozier is a bucket getter who has a reputation of being the most dedicated worker, especially in the off-season. He's a great setting culture.

Your numbers are slightly off I think because you’re not factoring roster charges but you’re assuming everyone plays ball in service of Charlotte’s cap preservation. It’s very unlikely it’s not 2k. Unless you overpay Monk or Graham they aren’t waiting around for Charlotte to test the waters. Similarly Holmes will have a lot of suitors I think. But I do agree with you on tiers.

MoneyTalks41890 wrote:

MasterIchiro wrote:And you're assuming bidding and missing out on Holmes is a pure gamble. There would be contingency plans leveraging cap preferable to surrending Rozier plus pick 11. I really like 6-12. 1-5 is a dream but 6-12 is a pretty flat tier. And of course Rozier is a bucket getter who has a reputation of being the most dedicated worker, especially in the off-season. He's a great setting culture.

Your numbers are slightly off I think because you’re not factoring roster charges but you’re assuming everyone plays ball in service of Charlotte’s cap preservation. It’s very unlikely it’s not 2k. Unless you overpay Monk or Graham they aren’t waiting around for Charlotte to test the waters. Similarly Holmes will have a lot of suitors I think. But I do agree with you on tiers.

Smitty has them at about $27m in cap space, maximum. This factors in the Batum stretch and the #11 pick salary slot. Graham’s cap hold is $4.7m, so down to almost $22m in cap space. This is the tricky part. Monk’s cap hold is $16m, which would put them at only $6m in cap space, or less than the MLE, which would say that the team would operate as “over the cap” and use the MLE and BAE instead of the smaller amount of $6m in cap space and then the room exception. Now, I would assume Monk will re-sign for less than $16m, so say he signs for $10m in year one, they could max at about $12m in cap space, and then use the Room Exception after that, while re-signing Graham last and keeping his small cap hold on until after.

Waiving the Martin’s could add $3.5m, but would keep them in that middle ground of “Are we operating as over the cap or not?”. Waiving McDaniels would allow them to operate under the cap, where they could re-sign Monk for around $10m in year one, and have about $16-18m in cap space on top of that. But that number drops for every extra dollar over $10m that Monk re-signs for.

Renounce Monk, and they have plenty of room.

This feels way too good for Charlotte...I'd do it in a second

spankymoore7 wrote:This feels way too good for Charlotte...I'd do it in a second

Horford and a late lottery pick does feel awfully light for the best shot blocker on earth entering his prime, with a three point shot to boot.

Scoot McGroot wrote:

MoneyTalks41890 wrote:

MasterIchiro wrote:And you're assuming bidding and missing out on Holmes is a pure gamble. There would be contingency plans leveraging cap preferable to surrending Rozier plus pick 11. I really like 6-12. 1-5 is a dream but 6-12 is a pretty flat tier. And of course Rozier is a bucket getter who has a reputation of being the most dedicated worker, especially in the off-season. He's a great setting culture.

Your numbers are slightly off I think because you’re not factoring roster charges but you’re assuming everyone plays ball in service of Charlotte’s cap preservation. It’s very unlikely it’s not 2k. Unless you overpay Monk or Graham they aren’t waiting around for Charlotte to test the waters. Similarly Holmes will have a lot of suitors I think. But I do agree with you on tiers.

Smitty has them at about $27m in cap space, maximum. This factors in the Batum stretch and the #11 pick salary slot. Graham’s cap hold is $4.7m, so down to almost $22m in cap space. This is the tricky part. Monk’s cap hold is $16m, which would put them at only $6m in cap space, or less than the MLE, which would say that the team would operate as “over the cap” and use the MLE and BAE instead of the smaller amount of $6m in cap space and then the room exception. Now, I would assume Monk will re-sign for less than $16m, so say he signs for $10m in year one, they could max at about $12m in cap space, and then use the Room Exception after that, while re-signing Graham last and keeping his small cap hold on until after.

Waiving the Martin’s could add $3.5m, but would keep them in that middle ground of “Are we operating as over the cap or not?”. Waiving McDaniels would allow them to operate under the cap, where they could re-sign Monk for around $10m in year one, and have about $16-18m in cap space on top of that. But that number drops for every extra dollar over $10m that Monk re-signs for.

Renounce Monk, and they have plenty of room.

Monk at 9 is the goal. Keeping McDaniels is also a must. There wouldn't be roster charges because we'd still have 13 with pick 11, after subtracting Caleb and Cody Martin. Grant Riller makes the cut. People forget about him.

So yes we'd have about 14.6 million if Monk signs for 9. The cap for pick 11 included.

I'm not sure if we could backload a deal to Holmes so that he fits into cap year one and his salary escalates the following years.

We are damn close to Holmes. And Drummond while a notch or two or three down would be an upgrade over last year. So worst case scenario we have Drummond + Rozier + 11 instead of Turner. Or we have Drummond + PJ + future first instead of Turner. Kupchak seems to stockpile second rounders and hasn't dealt a pick in any of his first three seasons maybe because he identifies small market teams can't attract big free agents unless they overpay, so you need rookie scale contracts if you want to remain solvent. And if we keep Monk and Graham on market deals we can move them down the line for an upgrade over Drummond.