Offseason Grades - Memphis Grizzlies

[bondom34]

Up next, the Grizzlies. And for clarity, these were in before the Gasol trade.

K_Chile22's offseason grade:

Memphis Grizzlies transactions

Front office
Extended GM Zach Kleiman.

Draft
Drafted Ziaire Williams at pick #10 (acquired from NOP).
Drafted Santi Aldama at pick #30 (acquired from UTA).

Trades
Traded Jonas Valanciunas, Tyler Harvey, pick #17 and pick #51 for Eric Bledsoe, Steven Adams, pick #10, pick #40, and Lakers' protected 2022 first in three-team deal.
Traded pick #40 and two future 2nds for pick #30.
Traded Grayson Allen for Sam Merrill and two future 2nds.
Traded Eric Bledsoe for Pat Beverley, Rajon Rondo and Daniel Oturu.
Traded Pat Beverley for Jarrett Culver and Juancho Hernangomez.

Free agency
Waived Jontay Porter.
Waived Rajon Rondo

Offseason Thoughts
The last couple of years the Grizz benefited from guys falling in the draft. This year they reached, twice. To make it sting a bit more, they took on a bunch of long term money and got worse to move from 17 to 10, only to pick a guy who very well could have been there at 17, then trade 40 and two seconds for a guy who'd probably be there at 40. Maybe I'm wrong on those things, but I did not see either guy getting picked as high as they did.
Not going to knock them much for grabbing guys earlier than consensus or where I thought they'd go, but will knock them more for trading up to reach back.

Ignoring how they used #10 though, the JVal trade in a vacuum was good for them, they did well and even though it seems backwards, directionally, love the patience to not try to rush deeper into the playoffs and build something more sustainable. All the other deals are good small deals, using space below the tax to take on players and get minor assets, like that for them.

Grade
C+. Played the minor asset game well, liked the JVal trade, but maneuvering up to reach back makes it hard for me to go any higher than a slight positive.
2022 Prediction
squeaks into the play in
Offseason in gif form
(this was me hearing the Ziaire pick)



Mamba4goat's offseason grade:

Memphis Grizzlies transactions

Front office
Extended GM Zach Kleiman.

Draft
Drafted Ziaire Williams at pick #10 (acquired from NOP).
Drafted Santi Aldama at pick #30 (acquired from UTA).

Trades
Traded Jonas Valanciunas, Tyler Harvey, pick #17 and pick #51 for Eric Bledsoe, Steven Adams, pick #10, pick #40, and Lakers' protected 2022 first in three-team deal.
Traded pick #40 and two future 2nds for pick #30.
Traded Grayson Allen for Sam Merrill and two future 2nds.
Traded Eric Bledsoe for Pat Beverley, Rajon Rondo and Daniel Oturu.
Traded Pat Beverley for Jarrett Culver and Juancho Hernangomez.

Free agency
Waived Jontay Porter.
Waived Rajon Rondo

Offseason Thoughts
The Griz had one goal this offseason from the looks of things...acquire as many players as possible and man, they are succeeding. That being said, it looks like they've committed to a soft rebuild to retool and get some additional assets next to Ja and co. I personally wasn't crazy about the Williams pick--Moody and Bouknight were both better, safer options in my opinion. Williams does have the highest ceiling though.

Grade
B
They saw where they were relative to the rest of the league and had the confidence to blow it up a little. Getting additional assets to eventually make a future move to land Ja a star to play next to him was pretty good too. The one thing that could make or break this grade is JJJ's extension if it happens.
2022 Prediction
9-12th seed, if things break right they're still a play-in team but I am not holding my breath for it.
Offseason in gif form




bondom34's offseason grade:


Memphis Grizzlies transactions

Front office
Extended GM Zach Kleiman.

Draft
Drafted Ziaire Williams at pick #10 (acquired from NOP).
Drafted Santi Aldama at pick #30 (acquired from UTA).

Trades
Traded Jonas Valanciunas, Tyler Harvey, pick #17 and pick #51 for Eric Bledsoe, Steven Adams, pick #10, pick #40, and Lakers' protected 2022 first in three-team deal.
Traded pick #40 and two future 2nds for pick #30.
Traded Grayson Allen for Sam Merrill and two future 2nds.
Traded Eric Bledsoe for Pat Beverley, Rajon Rondo and Daniel Oturu.
Traded Pat Beverley for Jarrett Culver and Juancho Hernangomez.
Traded Juancho Hernangomez to Boston for guards Kris Dunn, Carsen Edwards and a 2026 second-round pick swap

Free agency
Waived Jontay Porter.

Offseason Thoughts
In terms of just philosophy I really like what Memphis was going for this offseason but at the same time I question a few moves too. Starting out I think they see what they'd done the last few years as a team with the likely ceiling of being a fun plucky 2nd round out and they wanted more. To do that they wanted to maybe take a slight step back currently but gain some future assets that could be more of an upside swing.

With that in mind I get the thinking behind the trade with the Pelicans and am totally fine with it. Getting a mid/early 2nd and likely later 1st plus moving up for taking on salary and getting a bit worse was fine value, though I wasn't a big Williams guy at this slot in the draft. I see the vision of what they're hoping but was a little surprised he went off the board so soon.

The Allen trade felt like selling a bit short to me though maybe I either think more highly of how he played last year or they like Merrill an absolute ton, because moving off a solid enough role player for some future 2nds felt light.

Now saying this it sounds a bit negative but they also managed to move Bledsoe for straight expirings and even if I'm not very high on Oturu either just moving for expirings is something. And even the Beverly follow up was a sensible and good upside swing I liked. Overall I felt this was an offseason I mostly understood what they were going for even if I don't know I love the execution in all aspects.

Grade
B-, I question the execution on some of this but I like the plan overall, and for transparency I'm reading Mamba's grade and realizing this could potentially be higher but the execution on some of the moves was iffier to me I think, though again I really did like this offseason.
2022 Prediction
In the running for a play in spot in the West, likely landing somewhere from 9-12

Offseason in gif form

[Texas Chuck]

Surprised at this approach. Would have thought they wanted to do more to build on last year or maybe even make a major addition. It's almost like taking on all that money for Winslow only for it go exactly as many of us thought has them being timid. Value is fine on all these deals but I really don't know where they are going with any of it.

I too don't love those picks, but the Grizzlies have absolutely earned my trust in the draft. So if these guys were their BPA and guys they viewed worth trading up for, I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt.

Grade B- I don't like their plan, but they had a clear one and they have consistently stuck to it. And other than JV they didn't actually lose a player who matters and if the goal is really JJJ transitioning to center then okay I guess.

Not a bad off-season, just not what I would have expected. Another fence straddling team but more defensible than most.

[Dadouv47]

I like when a team doesnt't overreact from making the playoffs and is willing to take a small stepback. They made some trades I wanted OKC to do. Don't like Ziaire at 10 though but his ceiling is pretty high so time will tell. B+ for me.

[psman2]

B. I think Memphis has done a good job of self-evaluating and making decisions based on those evaluations. Our team while deep doesn't yet have the talent needed to take that next step. So we weaponized our cap space again and even though the Winslow swing didn't work, doesn't mean that type of strategy is not a valid approach. Free agency didn't have a lot of good targets for us, so selling our cap over overpaying a guy like GTJ to me is a better approach.

We recognized that Val was a big part of our recent winning ways, but the style of play needed to optimize him doesn't really fit the rest of our team and going forward I think we have a higher upside moving on from him. So instead of keeping him and likely handing him a big raise we made the hard decision to move on and get what assets we could for him.

Some thing with Allen, he is a nice player that should be in line for raise in the offseason. However we have enough talent in house that his exit will not be felt that much. Loading up your cap sheet with too many fully paid role players before you have your stars in place is not the smartest thing to do. Better to stay flexible while gathering assets and promoting from within until you roster is ready.

So individually I was for every move we made except the draft picks. I was on the Moody train but our FO worked out both Williams and Moody and choose Williams. William's draft predictions were all over the place and he had a disappointing short stint in college. But his player type as a guy who can get his own shot while playing plus D is really needed on this team more than a Moody type that projects as more of limited 3ND guy. So given our FO track record so far I don't want to ding them too much on the pick based on a bunch of mocks that at the end of the day historically do a bad job of predicting the best players. Santi was the WTF pick here, but limited assets were used to obtain him so really hard to complain about maybe wasting some 2nds on him.

Predictions. 7-10 seed. The bottom of the West will be even better this year so missing out on the playoffs is a distinct possibility but I think we are entering the season with clear goals of prioritizing player development and flexibility. While the playoffs would be nice again it is more of a secondary goal.

[babyjax13]

B. I think Memphis has done a good job of self-evaluating and making decisions based on those evaluations. Our team while deep doesn't yet have the talent needed to take that next step. So we weaponized our cap space again and even though the Winslow swing didn't work, doesn't mean that type of strategy is not a valid approach. Free agency didn't have a lot of good targets for us, so selling our cap over overpaying a guy like GTJ to me is a better approach.

We recognized that Val was a big part of our recent winning ways, but the style of play needed to optimize him doesn't really fit the rest of our team and going forward I think we have a higher upside moving on from him. So instead of keeping him and likely handing him a big raise we made the hard decision to move on and get what assets we could for him.

Some thing with Allen, he is a nice player that should be in line for raise in the offseason. However we have enough talent in house that his exit will not be felt that much. Loading up your cap sheet with too many fully paid role players before you have your stars in place is not the smartest thing to do. Better to stay flexible while gathering assets and promoting from within until you roster is ready.

So individually I was for every move we made except the draft picks. I was on the Moody train but our FO worked out both Williams and Moody and choose Williams. William's draft predictions were all over the place and he had a disappointing short stink in college. But his player type as a guy who can get his own shot while playing plus D is really needed on this team more than a Moody type that projects as more of limited 3ND guy. So given our FO track record so far I don't want to ding them too much on the pick based on a bunch of mocks that at the end of the day historically do a bad job of predicting the best players. Santi was the WTF pick here, but limited assets were used to obtain him so really hard to complain about maybe wasting some 2nds on him.

Predictions. 7-10 seed. The bottom of the West will be even better this year so missing out on the playoffs is a distant possibility but I think we are entering the season with clear goals of prioritizing player development and flexibility. While the playoffs would be nice again it is more of a secondary goal.

I think these WTF players probably look great in individual workouts and are higher on the board than we think. e.g. Charlotte, San Antonio, New Orleans and Washington all worked out Primo, so likely his upside in the draft was a lot higher than most talent evaluators had him. So, I won't ding them for that, even though I'm not sure I *get* it. Williams I like, too. He has some pretty obvious flaws, but a lot of those have to do with his frame and getting knocked off spots, etc. and I think that can improve. As of right now, he might be a taller Rodney Hood (which would be a fine outcome at that point in the draft) or he might be a lot better (alternatively, he might be Wes Johnson but I think he's got more talent than that).

I'm not super crazy about their offseason, but I don't hate it, and I do like how they were willing to leverage space, etc. to collect assets. I'll give them a C+ for now, but if they do well with those assets or if Williams/Aldema pop, it could look a lot better.

[psman2]

B. I think Memphis has done a good job of self-evaluating and making decisions based on those evaluations. Our team while deep doesn't yet have the talent needed to take that next step. So we weaponized our cap space again and even though the Winslow swing didn't work, doesn't mean that type of strategy is not a valid approach. Free agency didn't have a lot of good targets for us, so selling our cap over overpaying a guy like GTJ to me is a better approach.

We recognized that Val was a big part of our recent winning ways, but the style of play needed to optimize him doesn't really fit the rest of our team and going forward I think we have a higher upside moving on from him. So instead of keeping him and likely handing him a big raise we made the hard decision to move on and get what assets we could for him.

Some thing with Allen, he is a nice player that should be in line for raise in the offseason. However we have enough talent in house that his exit will not be felt that much. Loading up your cap sheet with too many fully paid role players before you have your stars in place is not the smartest thing to do. Better to stay flexible while gathering assets and promoting from within until you roster is ready.

So individually I was for every move we made except the draft picks. I was on the Moody train but our FO worked out both Williams and Moody and choose Williams. William's draft predictions were all over the place and he had a disappointing short stink in college. But his player type as a guy who can get his own shot while playing plus D is really needed on this team more than a Moody type that projects as more of limited 3ND guy. So given our FO track record so far I don't want to ding them too much on the pick based on a bunch of mocks that at the end of the day historically do a bad job of predicting the best players. Santi was the WTF pick here, but limited assets were used to obtain him so really hard to complain about maybe wasting some 2nds on him.

Predictions. 7-10 seed. The bottom of the West will be even better this year so missing out on the playoffs is a distant possibility but I think we are entering the season with clear goals of prioritizing player development and flexibility. While the playoffs would be nice again it is more of a secondary goal.

I think these WTF players probably look great in individual workouts and are higher on the board than we think. e.g. Charlotte, San Antonio, New Orleans and Washington all worked out Primo, so likely his upside in the draft was a lot higher than most talent evaluators had him. So, I won't ding them for that, even though I'm not sure I *get* it. Williams I like, too. He has some pretty obvious flaws, but a lot of those have to do with his frame and getting knocked off spots, etc. and I think that can improve. As of right now, he might be a taller Rodney Hood (which would be a fine outcome at that point in the draft) or he might be a lot better (alternatively, he might be Wes Johnson but I think he's got more talent than that).

I'm not super crazy about their offseason, but I don't hate it, and I do like how they were willing to leverage space, etc. to collect assets. I'll give them a C+ for now, but if they do well with those assets or if Williams/Aldema pop, it could look a lot better.

So what would it take for Memphis given their options to get an A from you? That is where I struggle with some of these grades, was there a likely path that could be graded as an A for some of these teams? Looking at all the possible likely outcomes and then evaluating the chosen directions is how I like to look at these things. Are we grading each team on some kind of curve? Does a A for one team mean something different than an A for another? Is an A even possible for some teams?

[babyjax13]

B. I think Memphis has done a good job of self-evaluating and making decisions based on those evaluations. Our team while deep doesn't yet have the talent needed to take that next step. So we weaponized our cap space again and even though the Winslow swing didn't work, doesn't mean that type of strategy is not a valid approach. Free agency didn't have a lot of good targets for us, so selling our cap over overpaying a guy like GTJ to me is a better approach.

We recognized that Val was a big part of our recent winning ways, but the style of play needed to optimize him doesn't really fit the rest of our team and going forward I think we have a higher upside moving on from him. So instead of keeping him and likely handing him a big raise we made the hard decision to move on and get what assets we could for him.

Some thing with Allen, he is a nice player that should be in line for raise in the offseason. However we have enough talent in house that his exit will not be felt that much. Loading up your cap sheet with too many fully paid role players before you have your stars in place is not the smartest thing to do. Better to stay flexible while gathering assets and promoting from within until you roster is ready.

So individually I was for every move we made except the draft picks. I was on the Moody train but our FO worked out both Williams and Moody and choose Williams. William's draft predictions were all over the place and he had a disappointing short stink in college. But his player type as a guy who can get his own shot while playing plus D is really needed on this team more than a Moody type that projects as more of limited 3ND guy. So given our FO track record so far I don't want to ding them too much on the pick based on a bunch of mocks that at the end of the day historically do a bad job of predicting the best players. Santi was the WTF pick here, but limited assets were used to obtain him so really hard to complain about maybe wasting some 2nds on him.

Predictions. 7-10 seed. The bottom of the West will be even better this year so missing out on the playoffs is a distant possibility but I think we are entering the season with clear goals of prioritizing player development and flexibility. While the playoffs would be nice again it is more of a secondary goal.

I think these WTF players probably look great in individual workouts and are higher on the board than we think. e.g. Charlotte, San Antonio, New Orleans and Washington all worked out Primo, so likely his upside in the draft was a lot higher than most talent evaluators had him. So, I won't ding them for that, even though I'm not sure I *get* it. Williams I like, too. He has some pretty obvious flaws, but a lot of those have to do with his frame and getting knocked off spots, etc. and I think that can improve. As of right now, he might be a taller Rodney Hood (which would be a fine outcome at that point in the draft) or he might be a lot better (alternatively, he might be Wes Johnson but I think he's got more talent than that).

I'm not super crazy about their offseason, but I don't hate it, and I do like how they were willing to leverage space, etc. to collect assets. I'll give them a C+ for now, but if they do well with those assets or if Williams/Aldema pop, it could look a lot better.

So what would it take for Memphis given their options to get an A from you? That is where I struggle with some of these grades, was there a likely path that could be graded as an A for some of these teams? Looking at all the possible likely outcomes and then evaluating the chosen directions is how I like to look at these things. Are we grading each team on some kind of curve? Does a A for one team mean something different than an A for another? Is an A even possible for some teams?

I just don't see anything here that is a clear home-run, tbh. What would an A look like for Memphis? I think had they been able to roll these picks + some of their young guys/depth/future protected picks into something a bit higher, say to OKC at 6 (I imagine Giddey would have been there at 10, but maybe not?) and grabbed someone with a bit more upside (Kuminga?) I likely would be giving them an A. That's just an example. Like I said, I could see this offseason looking great in hindsight, I just feel like they did a lot where there are large question marks.

[Prospect Dong]

Like most people here (except Chuck, it looks like) I like the strategy fine. They showed in the playoffs that they have some intriguing building blocks but they're a long way from even fringe contention. That's the wrong time to push all-in or even start burning future assets to get to 48 wins and a harder-fought first round exit.

I think the execution was a bit sub-par, though. I think they overpaid slightly in the NO trade, and in the Allen trade. Happy with the idea of both, and it's not a huge issue, but I feel like they could have gotten more both times. Allen, in particular, has a good shot to be worth more mid-season than they got for him.

That leaves the young guys and picks they acquired. This is inherently tough, and the FO has shown a pretty good ability to identify contributors in unexpected places.

I think Culver - assuming he makes the roster - is a good swing. He probably ends up like Josh Jackson, but maybe he rediscovers his jumper and we get a look at a poor man's Draymond Green.

Maybe Merrill is legit late first value and balances out the Allen trade nicely. I have no idea, but that feels like the sort of thing homers tell themsleves about every C-list prospect the acquire. He might well be cut before opening day.

And the picks... I think Zaire was a pick for fit - which neither Moody nor Bounight, to pick two of the names suggested above, would have been. They decided we needed a big wing who could defend and create some to balance out the team after Winslow flamed out, so they went up and got one. But picking up an above-average starter in the late lotto while also drafting for need is hard. If they've managed it they deserve a huge amount of credit, but I'm usually much more in favor of playing the odds: take a lot of swings, sort out the fit of the ones who work out via trades and free agency. It will sting if we moved up to draft a bust (or a bench player) who we could have got at #18.

[loserX]

I'm certainly no draft expert and heaven knows I've been wrong about an awful lot. But as I mentioned elsewhere, I see Memphis giving up value to move up twice, and for the guys they got I'm not sure they actually needed to move up either time. Feels like they could have still landed Ziaire at #17 and Aldama at #40, though obviously we can never know for sure.

They made a whole bunch of moves, but other than that future Lakers' pick are they really much further ahead? We'll have to see how their gambles (draftees, Culver) pay off but for the time being I find it hard to give a great grade.

They have a phenomenal young talent in Ja and their playoff run was a sight to behold! There's a lot of things to look forward to for this feisty franchise. But I'm focusing on this offseason, not the team they already had.

[pacers33granger]

Agree with others that the draft was weird for Memphis. Maybe they expected someone to be there who got taken earlier. Or maybe they heard rumors about a team "reaching" for a young guy (SA - Primo; CHA - Kai based on rumor he was their guy there until Bouknight fell) and made sure they could get their guy. Really hard to tell on whether Aldama would've been available at 40 or not, but that seems likely.

[Dadouv47]

They lost some value by drafting Ziaire so early. A Morant/Bouknight duo would have been great (despite the lack of 3pt shooting)

[Prospect Dong]

They lost some value by drafting Ziaire so early. A Morant/Bouknight duo would have been great (despite the lack of 3pt shooting)

The Griz have three young small guards (Brooks, Bane and Melton) signed for the next few seasons. None of them project to be stars, but I'm not sure you grab a guy at #10 who probably can't play alongside them. It's tough, because drafting for fit is a big risk, but I think a smaller guard would have to have been fantastic value to warrant them picking up another guy at that position.

But maybe Bouknight blows up, and makes concerns about fit look ridiculous.

[Prospect Dong]

Agree with others that the draft was weird for Memphis. Maybe they expected someone to be there who got taken earlier. Or maybe they heard rumors about a team "reaching" for a young guy (SA - Primo; CHA - Kai based on rumor he was their guy there until Bouknight fell) and made sure they could get their guy. Really hard to tell on whether Aldama would've been available at 40 or not, but that seems likely.

They just seem really committed to trading up to get their guy - they did it with Clarke and Tillman prior to this (score one for the Griz FO, I guess). I think, once you convince yourself that a guy is great value at pick x, you start freaking out about someone else figuring that out and getting him 10 picks earlier.

I think great GMs don't get that sort of tunnel vision, but maybe the Griz FO really do have an edge when it comes to scouting, and it makes sense for them to overpay to get to put their predictions into practice. I wouldn't bet on it, though, the draft is too much of a crapshoot for anyone to systematically identify the guys you ought to be trading up for.