Big man carousel—Horford for Valanciunas

Post #1 » by **Mamba4Goat** » Tue Sep 14, 2021 1:22 am

Celtics send: Al Horford, 2022 1st, 2024 1st (lotto protected with declining protections)
NOLA sends: Jonas Valunciunas, Tomas Satoransky

Why for Boston? They upgrade at center in a big way while getting off of Horford’s extra year. They also pick up serviceable guard depth in Sato.
Why for NOLA? Zion’s best used with a spacing big that can help cover him on defense. Al Horford fits more in the Favors role which showed success next to Zion (over 50% of his shots came from 16ft or further last season) while Jonas packs the paint a little (over 80% of his shots came from within 10ft). I’ve been a skeptic of the Adams for Val swap because it’s just an upgrade of a bad fit. While Horford is a very clear downgrade to him at this point he’s the better fit by a significant margin. They also get a pair of picks to compensate for that+Al’s extra money.

Godaddycurse · Post #2 » by **Godaddycurse** » Tue Sep 14, 2021 3:18 am

i think boston should save its picks to look for a 3rd star down the road than using it to dump Horford.

Post #3 » by **jbk1234** » Tue Sep 14, 2021 3:33 am

I'm lower on Horford than most on this board, but I don't see anyway the Celtics consider this. The value is just way out of whack.

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HornetJail · Post #4 » by **HornetJail** » Tue Sep 14, 2021 3:44 am

I honestly think the Celtics just wanted Horford back. Don't see them considering this. Combined with the original Horford trade, this would boil down to 3 1sts plus Kemba for Valanciunas and that's just not something you can sell your fan base on.

Post #5 » by **Mamba4Goat** » Tue Sep 14, 2021 3:46 am

jbk1234 wrote:I'm lower on Horford than most on this board, but I don't see anyway the Celtics consider this. The value is just way out of whack.

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What would your version of this be? I figured its 1 1st for Al’s extra year and 1 1st for the talent disparity (which is is similar to the Val for Adams trade).

Resistance · Post #6 » by **Resistance** » Tue Sep 14, 2021 4:03 am

I have Boston waiting for some of the fog to lift on their possible FA targets (Beal, LaVine, etc) before doing something with Horford.

Post #7 » by **jbk1234** » Tue Sep 14, 2021 4:10 am

Mamba4Goat wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:I'm lower on Horford than most on this board, but I don't see anyway the Celtics consider this. The value is just way out of whack.

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What would your version of this be? I figured its 1 1st for Al’s extra year and 1 1st for the talent disparity (which is is similar to the Val for Adams trade).

They don't need Sato. They signed Schroder and they've got Smart, Pritchard, Richardson, Nesmith and Brown. They already extended Richardson, Smart and Williams so they won't have cap space.

So this really comes down to how much of an upgrade is JV over Horford? Unless Horford looks like he's already on the wrong side of cliff this year, which is a possibility, I'm not seeing enough value added to justify adding any picks. They're better off holding those picks at a chance of swapping Horford's salary for more talent.

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Post #8 » by **Darthlukey** » Tue Sep 14, 2021 4:32 am

Mamba4Goat wrote:Celtics send: Al Horford, 2022 1st, 2024 1st (lotto protected with declining protections)
NOLA sends: Jonas Valunciunas, Tomas Satoransky

Why for Boston? They upgrade at center in a big way while getting off of Horford’s extra year. They also pick up serviceable guard depth in Sato.
Why for NOLA? Zion’s best used with a spacing big that can help cover him on defense. Al Horford fits more in the Favors role which showed success next to Zion (over 50% of his shots came from 16ft or further last season) while Jonas packs the paint a little (over 80% of his shots came from within 10ft). I’ve been a skeptic of the Adams for Val swap because it’s just an upgrade of a bad fit. While Horford is a very clear downgrade to him at this point he’s the better fit by a significant margin. They also get a pair of picks to compensate for that+Al’s extra money.

In a vacuum big Val is a younger and better player than Al, but Al knows the system and can spread the floor well. On top of that, the partial guarantee on his deal makes year 2 a little more palatable to pay if required. Plus I suspect Boston actively wants Al rather than a nominal upgrade at the same position (not saying Al wont be moved in a bigger deal in the future mind you).

Post #9 » by **Texas Chuck** » Tue Sep 14, 2021 4:39 am

Not sure Boston would prefer JV the player over Horford the player with no incentive involved. Can't imagine they like paying 2 firsts to swap them. And they are already going to operate over the cap next season with all the extensions they handed out so clearing his future money probably isn't a current priority.

Laimbeer · Post #10 » by **Laimbeer** » Tue Sep 14, 2021 2:10 pm

Horford is still on a hefty deal for the next two years, and didn't the Pels trade a first to turn Adams into Val?

patman66 · Post #11 » by **patman66** » Tue Sep 14, 2021 2:46 pm

I don't see why the celts do this at all. Horford has a defined role on this team in combination with Rob Williams. The celts certainly have no need for another pg either. This leaves us with no shot at trading for a player next year or the money to sign a impact FA.
I think the celts are set at center with Rob, Horford and Kanter.

hugepatsfan · Post #12 » by **hugepatsfan** » Tue Sep 14, 2021 2:53 pm

Horford is a better player than JV. Celtics have foregone any free agency flexibility so shedding the extra year isn't at all worth sacrificing talent for. In fact, it's actually a detriment since BOS does have palatable S&T salary filler, of which Horford's partial guaranteed deal is a big part of. Big miss on the BOS end here.

DroseReturnChi · Post #13 » by **DroseReturnChi** » Tue Sep 14, 2021 4:36 pm

horford is huge negative like wiggins. wouldnt touch him with steven adams costing griffin nearly his job.

enzino · Post #14 » by **enzino** » Tue Sep 14, 2021 8:13 pm

c's pass

patman66 · Post #15 » by **patman66** » Tue Sep 14, 2021 9:42 pm

DroseReturnChi wrote:horford is huge negative like wiggins. wouldnt touch him with steven adams costing griffin nearly his job.

I agree Horford is a negative deal, but he is a much better fit for NOP and Zion and this is two first rd picks for 14 mill in next years salary. This is a huge win for NOP, they dump 10 milll in sato who is a redundant piece and upgrade at center for this year and get two firsts rd picks to do so. The celts would be crazy to do this.

Post #16 » by **Spin Move** » Wed Sep 15, 2021 6:36 pm

Horford is only gaurentted for 14.5 million next season, Celtics pass. Not going to add picks for an expiring.

Patsfan1081 · Post #17 » by **Patsfan1081** » Thu Sep 16, 2021 12:35 am

DroseReturnChi wrote:horford is huge negative like wiggins. wouldnt touch him with steven adams costing griffin nearly his job.

This isn’t true. He’s a negative asset because of his contract but he’s still a productive player that adds wins to a team. His contract at this point isn’t horrid either.

Rapcity_11 · Post #18 » by **Rapcity_11** » Thu Sep 16, 2021 1:11 am

Spin Move wrote:Horford is only gaurentted for 14.5 million next season, Celtics pass. Not going to add picks for an expiring.

That's literally not an expiring, since he's getting a minimum of $14.5M.

ecuhus1981 · Post #19 » by **ecuhus1981** » Thu Sep 16, 2021 3:37 am

Valanciunas and Satoransky might be worth 2 1sts more than Horford in a vacuum, I'm not certain but I could see it. To Boston, though, certainly not.

Tomas would be a nice upgrade to their bench, but I don't love the fit between Jonas and Robert Williams. That alone is eggnog to steer the Celtics clear of this one.

I could see a 3-way with Dallas being amenable. Porzingis could slot comfortably between Jayson and Williams, and Dallas would probably benefit from a back to the basket and P&R true big like J-Val. Send one future BOS 1st each to NOP and DAL, who's in?

ecuhus1981 · Post #20 » by **ecuhus1981** » Thu Sep 16, 2021 3:39 am

Patsfan1081 wrote:
DroseReturnChi wrote:horford is huge negative like wiggins. wouldnt touch him with steven adams costing griffin nearly his job.

This isn’t true. He’s a negative asset because of his contract but he’s still a productive player that adds wins to a team. His contract at this point isn’t horrid either.

Wiggins is a more productive player, not to mention a decade younger, and their contracts are a similar size (unless you want to pay Al $15mil to kick rocks next summer and have that dead money on your books).