GS/Memphis (yet again)

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GS/Memphis (yet again) 

Post#1 » by giberish » Wed Sep 15, 2021 2:05 am

This trade assumes that Memphis is willing to make 1 step back / 2 steps forward sort of deals (they already have done some this offseason), and that GS is willing to deal some youth (likely Moody or Wiseman) to upgrade their 4-7 rotation spots rather then just holding out for a star trade that makes sense (which will probably not be an option).

GS trades Wiseman for Anderson/Tillman (as a GS fan I'd also love to be getting the 2024 1st back but I'll leave that off as it could be getting into homer territory).

Why for Memphis. Wiseman has a lot more upside then Tillman. JJJ looks more like a PF (or at least mostly a PF) for a while so getting a guy they hope to be an Ayton-level center is valuable. Losing Anderson hurts a bit this year but so did traded Jonas

Why for GS. Tillman is much older and doesn't have Wiseman's upside but was clearly better last year and is a relatively sure thing to be a quality split-time center option. Anderson adds a quality mid-career player to the Warriors rotation of mid-sized guys. Right now the team has a bunch of guys in the SG/SF/PF range, but aside from Draymond and Wiggins (not a star but a solid minutes eater) everyone else has major questions or limitations.
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Re: GS/Memphis (yet again) 

Post#2 » by Texas Chuck » Wed Sep 15, 2021 2:08 am

Assuming Memphis sees upside in Wiseman I like this. I'm not crazy about Anderson's fit, but he's a good player and they need those and I imagine Kerr would pull him early and let him come back in and help Poole run the 2nd unit allowing Dray/Curry to maximize minutes together. Tillman ready to give some minutes right now. I'd really want to get Anderson to trade and extend as part of this though.
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Re: GS/Memphis (yet again) 

Post#3 » by psman2 » Wed Sep 15, 2021 2:17 am

Eminence and I have discussed this as well as other similar variations the past few months. I think Wiseman is likely a falling knife and I rather not be the team that tries to catch it, but this is a reasonable cost to risk it and I would be ok with it.

For GS.. I think it really improves their rotation and if Klay is back close to full health could be the difference in a longer playoff run.
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Re: GS/Memphis (yet again) 

Post#4 » by eminence » Wed Sep 15, 2021 2:25 am

With the FA signings we've had I think Melton would make more sense than Anderson even if Anderson is the better player.

Don't think that changes a ton for value.
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Re: GS/Memphis (yet again) 

Post#5 » by Godaddycurse » Wed Sep 15, 2021 3:05 am

Can GSW afford to retain Anderson though? If he is going to be a rental then it's pretty meh imo
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Re: GS/Memphis (yet again) 

Post#6 » by Commodor » Wed Sep 15, 2021 3:21 am

This is just bad.

I’m OK with moving Wiseman but why would we target 2 players at our deepest position? You can question our quality there if you want but you’re removing a player from one of our thinnest positions and not replacing him.

Tillman is not a C he’s a PF. Anderson is a whole lot of average even if he’s a slight upgrade over some of our players.

This is just a move to get rid of Wiseman and not improve the squad or save money. GSW would not entertain this even remotely, but if you try on 2k maybe you’d have some luck.
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Re: GS/Memphis (yet again) 

Post#7 » by Texas Chuck » Wed Sep 15, 2021 3:50 am

Commodor wrote:This is just a move to get rid of Wiseman and not improve the squad or save money. GSW would not entertain this even remotely, but if you try on 2k maybe you’d have some luck.


You don't have to like anything, but this is needlessly insulting to a very good poster. Nothing about this is a 2k trade.


Also, I like the Melton version of this even better I think.
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Re: GS/Memphis (yet again) 

Post#8 » by Coxy » Wed Sep 15, 2021 3:53 am

Not a fan of this idea at all. Would rather keep Wiseman.
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Re: GS/Memphis (yet again) 

Post#9 » by KEMBAtheMETEOR » Wed Sep 15, 2021 4:03 am

this isn't anywhere close to fair value for Wiseman. It's like, at least a late lottery pick apart. Then again, a team that would want to sell low on Wiseman after the circumstances of last season kinda deserves to get ripped off. I'd expect a much better year 2.
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Re: GS/Memphis (yet again) 

Post#10 » by Texas Chuck » Wed Sep 15, 2021 4:20 am

KEMBAtheMETEOR wrote:this isn't anywhere close to fair value for Wiseman. It's like, at least a late lottery pick apart. Then again, a team that would want to sell low on Wiseman after the circumstances of last season kinda deserves to get ripped off. I'd expect a much better year 2.


I don't think Wiseman is worth a late lottery pick in total. Makes a lot of money for a rookie scale guy and we have no reason to suspect there will be any return on that money until maybe year 3, but maybe not even then. I understand paying up for potential, but right now all his value is based on high school hype because he hasn't actually shown anything on the basketball court in more than 2 years.

And guys like Skal/Shabazz Muhammed were projected 1st/2nd picks in high school who 2 years later weren't worth nearly that and never reached any kind of potential. And they weren't saddled with huge rookie deals.

Strongly disagree with value being majorly off here. Now I understand an argument that says his ceiling is still higher than Tillman even as his floor is clearly a lot lower and not wanting to give that up for one year of Anderson. Totally fair. But I think this value is fair.
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Re: GS/Memphis (yet again) 

Post#11 » by azwfan » Wed Sep 15, 2021 4:35 am

Terrible value wise.
You dont draft Wiseman knowing he’s gonna be a project and then get scared and trade him for mediocre return when he looks like a... project.

Memphis accepts this 10 times out of 10, and GSW offers it 0/10.
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Re: GS/Memphis (yet again) 

Post#12 » by Warriors Analyst » Wed Sep 15, 2021 2:11 pm

I like the Melton version of this trade more and I’d probably do that one. I understand that the overall value is low here and it makes sense to me why Warriors fans don’t feel this is fair value. But I think it’s more likely than not that this exact trade seems like an overpay for Wiseman by next year. Texas Chuck’s valuation of Wiseman is pretty spot on; it’s unlikely he’s worth his rookie scale contract value at any point this season. I’d go a step further and say he may not be worth the $9 million of his rookie contract at any point in his rookie deal.

I understand that selling low feels gross but I think it’s also worth considering how quickly trade value plummets for young guys. Off of the top of my head Derick Williams, Anthony Bennett, Jarrett Culver, Hasheem Thabeet, Thomas Robinson, Markelle Fultz, and Dennis Smith Jr. stand out as top 10 picks who were traded for very little value during their rookie scale contract.

Then there’s guys like Mario Hezonja, Frank Nkitilina, Emmanuel Mudiay, Jahlil Okafor, Dragan Bender, and Marquesse Chriss who were top 10 picks available at the vet min by the end of their rookie contracts.

I’m not necessarily saying that’s the path Wiseman is going down. The point I’m making is that what seems like a sell low trade now very well could be good value for Wiseman by mid-season or this time next year if he struggles coming off of the meniscus rehab.
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Re: GS/Memphis (yet again) 

Post#13 » by eminence » Wed Sep 15, 2021 5:35 pm

I agree that GS should certainly ask for more when engaging (eg the '24 1st) to gauge any teams interest.

But yeah, I'm very interested in trading Wiseman+filler for temp starter guard/wing and a rotation big. Potentially medium draft assets back to GS depending on the players. MEM/OKC and maybe WAS are the teams that seem to fit the best, though I don't understand WAS and their goals very well right now at all.
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Re: GS/Memphis (yet again) 

Post#14 » by Commodor » Wed Sep 15, 2021 9:38 pm

Texas Chuck wrote:
Commodor wrote:This is just a move to get rid of Wiseman and not improve the squad or save money. GSW would not entertain this even remotely, but if you try on 2k maybe you’d have some luck.


You don't have to like anything, but this is needlessly insulting to a very good poster. Nothing about this is a 2k trade.


Also, I like the Melton version of this even better I think.


Was not trying to insult actually. More trying to say that the value may check out in game but that in reality the team wouldn’t pursue due to fit. But I can see why it comes off as snarky.
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Re: GS/Memphis (yet again) 

Post#15 » by zimpy27 » Wed Sep 15, 2021 9:53 pm

I think GSW need Melton+Tillman to fit their team. Kyle is better but they have a ton of wings.
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Re: GS/Memphis (yet again) 

Post#16 » by pacers33granger » Wed Sep 15, 2021 10:02 pm

I think you'd need to do the Melton version with the GS first back to get their attention. I'm not sure Memphis should offer that, but I would if I were them. That said, there are a lot of recent top picks who lost value incredibly fast for a variety of reasons and Wiseman could be the next in the eyes of some teams. Which just means GS should hang onto him.
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Re: GS/Memphis (yet again) 

Post#17 » by Prospect Dong » Wed Sep 15, 2021 11:24 pm

Commodor wrote:This is just bad.

I’m OK with moving Wiseman but why would we target 2 players at our deepest position? You can question our quality there if you want but you’re removing a player from one of our thinnest positions and not replacing him.

Tillman is not a C he’s a PF. Anderson is a whole lot of average even if he’s a slight upgrade over some of our players.

This is just a move to get rid of Wiseman and not improve the squad or save money. GSW would not entertain this even remotely, but if you try on 2k maybe you’d have some luck.


Tilman played close to 100% of his minutes at C last season, when he was pretty good. He's a small 5, but he's a 5 who can shoot the three some. From memory, Golden State has had some success with that sort of lineup in the past.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/t/tillmxa01/lineups/2021

Anderson is at his best at the 4, is fine at the 3 and can play some 5 or 2 at a pinch.

The trouble with these kinds of deals is that GS fans change their minds about what their deepest positions are to match the players they're getting and, if that doesn't work, they'll just mischaracterise the positions of the players they're getting.

Setting aside value for the moment, this trade likely makes you significantly better at the 5 next season. If that's what you're super worried about, you should do this trade, but I firmly expect an immediate pivot away from being super-worried about who will man the 5.
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Re: GS/Memphis (yet again) 

Post#18 » by Prospect Dong » Wed Sep 15, 2021 11:29 pm

KEMBAtheMETEOR wrote:this isn't anywhere close to fair value for Wiseman. It's like, at least a late lottery pick apart. Then again, a team that would want to sell low on Wiseman after the circumstances of last season kinda deserves to get ripped off. I'd expect a much better year 2.


Like Chuck, I don't think Wiseman is worth much more than a late lotto on his own. The draft he was picked second in was historically terrible, so he's more Stromile Swift than Kevin Durant as a prospect. Then his play as a rookie hurt his value a reasonable amount, and he's being paid like a normal #2 pick with no real expectation that that's his value. I'd definitely give, say #14 for him, probably #12. Not #10. If you value him differently I think you need to start by justifying that.

Based on that, I'm a no for memphis, I think. The strategy of going after someone with upside is good, and the value is close, but it feels like slightly too much to give up for a late-lotto-level prospect. Tilman was the better player by a significant margin last year, and that tends to count for a lot even when there's a huge age difference. Anderson developed into an above-average starter and is noticeably underpaid. I'd only do this with a little something extra from GS. I'm probably more open to the Melton version, though.
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Re: GS/Memphis (yet again) 

Post#19 » by Commodor » Thu Sep 16, 2021 6:07 am

Prospect Dong wrote:Tilman played close to 100% of his minutes at C last season, when he was pretty good. He's a small 5, but he's a 5 who can shoot the three some. From memory, Golden State has had some success with that sort of lineup in the past.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/t/tillmxa01/lineups/2021

Anderson is at his best at the 4, is fine at the 3 and can play some 5 or 2 at a pinch.

The trouble with these kinds of deals is that GS fans change their minds about what their deepest positions are to match the players they're getting and, if that doesn't work, they'll just mischaracterise the positions of the players they're getting.

Setting aside value for the moment, this trade likely makes you significantly better at the 5 next season. If that's what you're super worried about, you should do this trade, but I firmly expect an immediate pivot away from being super-worried about who will man the 5.


GSW had success with the one of the best defenders of all time playing C even though he lacked a 3pt shot. That is seems to be the opposite of Tillman's calling card. The only similarity is he's short. GSW always had a reliable rotation of centers to preserve Draymond from those minutes and to match up with the larger bodied teams, plus if they wanted a young small prospect 5 prospect they could have just kept Paschal.

For Anderson, I have been overall receptive of a Wiggins-Anderson centered deal. The issue is Memphis wants Wiseman (or at least all the threads created here in T&T indicate that) while the best argument for Anderson is "it saves GSW money". Anderson is a solid player but his on-court production really doesn't warrant moving any of GSW's top prospects. There are other ways to move off Wiggins' deal without sacrificing their young prospects if that was their goal. This deal doesn't move off Wiggins' contract so it creates the glut I reference earlier and either causes the cap to explore or they lose Anderson as a rental.

As for thinnest positions I think it is pretty obvious that PG & C are the glaring needs. Curry doesn't have a true back up outside of Poole, who is a SG at heart. Looney & Wiseman are the only true C's on the roster. One or both get hurt, as they did last year, and they are trotting out midget lineups. You can argue 2-4 being the deepest, but 1 & 5 are certainly the thinnest.

And as for "significantly better" next year - are you referring to the player who could not crack the playing rotation in the playoffs and averaged less than 20mpg last year? He may be a slight 1 year upgrade but Tillman's not moving the needle any more than Wiseman will.
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Re: GS/Memphis (yet again) 

Post#20 » by DroseReturnChi » Thu Sep 16, 2021 6:50 am

Coxy wrote:Not a fan of this idea at all. Would rather keep Wiseman.


yep not sure why its homer? didnt warriors fans claim wiseman was next superstar? this package is weak.
Did something happen offseason like he got reinjured like klay?
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