GS/Memphis (yet again)

[uriah]

I'm not sure if I would do this for the Grizzlies, if you check Tillman advanced stats he has the edge in almost every advanced stat over Wiseman with positive win shares, box +-, and better value over replacement... Sure he doesn't have the fancy name and draft pedigree, and its 3 years older, but he doesn't have the injury history and its much cheaper so if the price is K.Anderson I am not sold in the swap...

https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1=tillmxa01&player_id2=wisemja01

[Warriorfan]

Wiseman and Kuminga are more boom or bust but Isld bet on HS player development

[warriorfan650]

At this point, we should keep Wiseman. We didn't trade him for stars like everyone suggested, so we shouldn't trade him for non stars

I kind of dreaded/expected a deal during the draft, but it didn't happen. He was the second overall pick and got hurt. His value seems to be dropping and he doesn't appear to be a locker room issue. I'd rather hold on to him unless it's for something groundbreaking.

[Prospect Dong]

Tilman played close to 100% of his minutes at C last season, when he was pretty good. He's a small 5, but he's a 5 who can shoot the three some. From memory, Golden State has had some success with that sort of lineup in the past.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/t/tillmxa01/lineups/2021

Anderson is at his best at the 4, is fine at the 3 and can play some 5 or 2 at a pinch.

The trouble with these kinds of deals is that GS fans change their minds about what their deepest positions are to match the players they're getting and, if that doesn't work, they'll just mischaracterise the positions of the players they're getting.

Setting aside value for the moment, this trade likely makes you significantly better at the 5 next season. If that's what you're super worried about, you should do this trade, but I firmly expect an immediate pivot away from being super-worried about who will man the 5.

GSW had success with the one of the best defenders of all time playing C even though he lacked a 3pt shot. That is seems to be the opposite of Tillman's calling card. The only similarity is he's short. GSW always had a reliable rotation of centers to preserve Draymond from those minutes and to match up with the larger bodied teams, plus if they wanted a young small prospect 5 prospect they could have just kept Paschal.

For Anderson, I have been overall receptive of a Wiggins-Anderson centered deal. The issue is Memphis wants Wiseman (or at least all the threads created here in T&T indicate that) while the best argument for Anderson is "it saves GSW money". Anderson is a solid player but his on-court production really doesn't warrant moving any of GSW's top prospects. There are other ways to move off Wiggins' deal without sacrificing their young prospects if that was their goal. This deal doesn't move off Wiggins' contract so it creates the glut I reference earlier and either causes the cap to explore or they lose Anderson as a rental.

As for thinnest positions I think it is pretty obvious that PG & C are the glaring needs. Curry doesn't have a true back up outside of Poole, who is a SG at heart. Looney & Wiseman are the only true C's on the roster. One or both get hurt, as they did last year, and they are trotting out midget lineups. You can argue 2-4 being the deepest, but 1 & 5 are certainly the thinnest.

And as for "significantly better" next year - are you referring to the player who could not crack the playing rotation in the playoffs and averaged less than 20mpg last year? He may be a slight 1 year upgrade but Tillman's not moving the needle any more than Wiseman will.

This is just getting weird:

GSW had success with the one of the best defenders of all time playing C even though he lacked a 3pt shot. That is seems to be the opposite of Tillman's calling card.

While Tillman is not literally Draymond Green, who is unlikely to be available to the warirors in a trade, he, like prime Green shoots some threes (about half the volume of prime Draymond, slightly better accuracy) and was a plus defender, even as a rookie (positive DBPM). He is also, FWIW, noticeably larger than Green, though still small for a full-time C.

You seem to be just throwing stuff out there at this point.

GSW always had a reliable rotation of centers to preserve Draymond from those minutes and to match up with the larger bodied teams

Sure, and following this trade you still have that "reliable rotation of centers" (including a new emergency small-ball optioning Anderson) but you swap out exactly one of them for a guy who is likely to be better at player center next season. That feels like a win for your center rotation and, crucially, irrelevant to how you match up against the league's remaining big bodied offensive centers, because that's something Wiseman projects to remain terrible at. If you need a big guy to stop Embiid, you're screwed either way. But if you need a big guy to spend on few possession being taller than, like, Ivaka Zubac, then you can pick someone up off the scrap heap midseason. But none of that has anything to do with the trade you're rejecting.

plus if they wanted a young small prospect 5 prospect they could have just kept Paschal

When assessing trades, I think it's important to remember that there are quality differences between players, even at the same position. "If we wanted to trade one center for another center, we would have kept this unrelated player who we gave away for a second round pick because he is barely an NBA player" is not a sensible way to assess a trade. The reason you might prefer Tillman to keeping Paschall is because Tillman is better at basketball than Paschall. To the extent this doesn't match how you talked about Paschall's potential before you gave him away, that's an embarrassment that you'd probably be better off not bringing up in unrelated discussions. But players who are not on the warrior's roster, and who are barely still in the league, are not relevant to actual trade discussions. You also can't just wheel out Dampier or Biedrins every time you want to say no to a trade, just in case that was your plan B.

And as for "significantly better" next year - are you referring to the player who could not crack the playing rotation in the playoffs and averaged less than 20mpg last year? He may be a slight 1 year upgrade but Tillman's not moving the needle any more than Wiseman will.

How did Wiseman look in the playoffs? How did Steph Curry look in the playoffs? The key point to remember when looking at Memphis' supporting cast is that it made a team led by Ja Morant and, let's say JV, equal to a team led by an MVP candidate and a DPOY candidate. So look down your lineup and carefully tell yourself "those guys are collectively much worse than their opposite numbers in Memphis. I wonder if we could bridge that gap a bit by making a trade".

That's the mindset people suggesting these trades are adopting, and if you can do that too you won't be stuck denying that Xavier Tillman plays center or talking about Eric Paschall.

Last year, as a rookie, according to basically every advanced stat, Tillman was noticeably better and more reliable than Wiseman, who was pretty bad. Wiseman figures to be better in year two - but this will really just be the back end of his first season, experience-wise - as does Tillman. Wiseman has a higher ceiling, which is why we're discussing this trade, but Tillman at backup C is very likely to improve your team next year, and maybe the year after. That's mostly what trades are supposed to accomplish, and all this "move the needle" talk is just yet another way to avoid engaging with the question of whether the improvement in year one is enough to compensate for the loss of potential in the future. Tillman in year two will likely give you better play, and especially better defense, at the 5 for 20-28 minutes a game than Wiseman, causing you to win more games and helping you to keep Draymond fresh for the playoffs. Separately, you will add an above-average starter to you rotation at the 3/4, which will also help you win games because of [see earlier point about how your supporting cast was way worse than Mortant's].

There's absolutely a conversation to be had about whether there will be enough extra wins, or whether getting them is worth it (note: you have an MVP candidate and a DPOY candidate exiting their primes), but you seem to be intent on not having that discussion by just saying irrelevant, easily-disproven bull instead.

[Nate the Great]

It doesn’t matter if everyone here loves the trade. If the teams don’t want it, it won’t happen. Sorry,I know most of you think every GM should just listen to you, but they won’t.

I think Bob Myers chose Wiseman in part because he doesn’t want to play small ball for 48 MPG. And some players’ careers aren’t defined entirely by their rookie seasons. Wiseman’s rookie season was messed up by Covid, maybe more than anyone else’s. I think they’ll give him at least another season before dumping him.

[radtech]

Dubs drafted two wings, signed Iggy, a limited playing time Klay will return, improved play from Poole, and another year of Wiggins.

The Dubs last year lacked wings and now have some young ones and a returning MVP. So Solo Mo is not needed. Yes Wiseman was a complete negative on the court but no trading camp, summer league, covid, and just played three games of college basketball. So yeah he looked terrible at times. But lets not go crazy and trade him for spare parts. Some team might want him to be part of their rebuilding and offer a better veteran.

[NW]

There’s plenty of arguments to be made for the deal on a value perspective. Statistically (on paper), sure it’s closer than some assess.

That being said, it’s clear the Warriors value the long term ceiling of Wiseman over whatever short-term gain Anderson and Tillman could provide. They didn’t spend the money they did in the offseason to remake the coaching staff from a developmental standpoint (including adding one coach who specializes in big man development) to make a deal like this.

I could see a deal with Wiggins for multiple depth pieces from Memphis (with a first rounder or restrictions removed from the current one the Grizz have as sweetener), but the Warriors aren’t dealing Wiseman for role players no matter how it might make sense on paper

[azwfan]

There’s plenty of arguments to be made for the deal on a value perspective. Statistically (on paper), sure it’s closer than some assess.

That being said, it’s clear the Warriors value the long term ceiling of Wiseman over whatever short-term gain Anderson and Tillman could provide. They didn’t spend the money they did in the offseason to remake the coaching staff from a developmental standpoint (including adding one coach who specializes in big man development) to make a deal like this.

I could see a deal with Wiggins for multiple depth pieces from Memphis (with a first rounder or restrictions removed from the current one the Grizz have as sweetener), but the Warriors aren’t dealing Wiseman for role players no matter how it might make sense on paper

Only thing to add here is “certainly not before they see him with a training camp and the development staff”. The kid had 1 practice with the team before playing in the nba... after only 3 college games. And he looks talents just lost on defense and some poor decisions on offense. Things one should expect with no practice time. If hes still looking that lost this season, and the Warriors are looking like a depth piece away, then i can see something like Wiseman for depth pieces at the deadline... but not until Klay comes back, and not until they see what if any difference the coaching and practice time makes for him.

[dans1230]

Terrible value wise.
You dont draft Wiseman knowing he’s gonna be a project and then get scared and trade him for mediocre return when he looks like a... project.

Memphis accepts this 10 times out of 10, and GSW offers it 0/10.

Wiseman only got into 39 games last season. In 20 mins he put up 11pts 6 boards and a block. The potential seems to be there, he was the number 2 pick out of college where he played 3 games. GS is definately trying to win now which could hurt his developement, but they have to hang onto him, and if they were to move him it would need to be a better package.