Offseason Grades - Portland Trailblazers

[bondom34]

K_Chile22's offseason grade:

Portland Trailblazers transactions

Front office
Replaced coach Terry Stotts with Chauncey Billups.

Draft
Drafted Greg Brown at #43 (acquired from NOP).

Trades
Traded future 2nd and cash to New Orleans for pick #43.
Traded Derrick Jones Jr., a 2022 1st round pick and 2023 2nd round pick for Larry Nance Jr.

Free agency
Re-signed Norm Powell, 5/$90M.
Signed Tony Snell, 1/min.
Signed Cody Zeller, 1/min.
Signed Ben McLemore, 1/min.
Offseason Thoughts
Had to pay Norm Powell, really not much choice there, but don't think they got killed at the negotiating table. Zeller is an underrated backup big pickup imo. Snell and McLemore are bodies at the wing and that's about it. Turning DJJ and a pick into Nance was a great move. Still not having a backup point guard isn't great. Not going to go outside of the scope of this activity when it comes to Billups, but don't hate moving on from Stotts even though I think he's a good coach. No points made or lost.

Grade
B-. Held onto Norm, got Nance, those were the big moves and I like them
2022 Prediction
Home court play - in team
Offseason in gif form


Mamba4goat's offseason grade:

Portland Trailblazers transactions

Front office
Replaced coach Terry Stotts with Chauncey Billups.

Draft
Drafted Greg Brown at #43 (acquired from NOP).

Trades
Traded future 2nd and cash to New Orleans for pick #43.
Traded Derrick Jones Jr., a 2022 1st round pick and 2023 2nd round pick for Larry Nance Jr.

Free agency
Re-signed Norm Powell, 5/$90M.
Signed Tony Snell, 1/min.
Signed Cody Zeller, 1/min.
Signed Ben McLemore, 1/min.
Offseason Thoughts
Portland probably had the most underrated/underappreciated offseason. They may have finally found a functioning forward duo in RoCo and Nance--something they've lacked basically all of Dame's tenure. Zeller will likely be one of the better backup centers as well. They've been in talks about Ben Simmons for CJ and on paper that feels like a great deal for them too if it ever happens. I have personally always felt like they had the best odds of acquiring him.

Grade
A+
They killed it.
2022 Prediction
3-6 seed
Offseason in gif form


bondom34's offseason grade:

Portland Trailblazers transactions

Front office
Replaced coach Terry Stotts with Chauncey Billups.

Draft
Drafted Greg Brown at #43 (acquired from NOP).

Trades
Traded future 2nd and cash to New Orleans for pick #43.
Traded Derrick Jones Jr., a 2022 1st round pick and 2023 2nd round pick for Larry Nance Jr.

Free agency
Re-signed Norm Powell, 5/$90M.
Signed Tony Snell, 1/min.
Signed Cody Zeller, 1/min.
Signed Ben McLemore, 1/min.
Offseason Thoughts
This offseason is one that felt really bad and then had a pretty solid move at the end that kind of saved it, but ultimately I don't know how big a difference it makes.

So to start out, its an offseason where Lillard will be starting a supermax extension and showed he wants upgrades to the roster.

The Billups situation was a mess. I'm not even going to speak further on it and don't want to get into it but just a mess. I wasn't much of a Greg Brown guy in the draft but they bought a pick, so that's fine. Free agency felt incredibly blah. The Powell contract is probably a little high but not bad, he's a fine starter. Zeller, Snell, and McLemore on the min are all fine.

But it really seemed like this was a team that needed more than fine to make a successful offseason because unlike some others there really is/was some urgency. I've been a McCollum fan for a while but really felt after the playoffs like there almost had to be a trade.

Then came the Nance trade, and swooping in to get a solid big man for a protected first was a really nice deal for Portland. I'm not entirely convinced it really made them huge offseason winners but it definitely felt like a bit of a save last minute. Every time Portland is counted out they have a better regular season than expected and though I still question them in the playoffs I kind of think they have that sort of year. Feels like a fine enough offseason but one that's mostly just going to repeat the same.

To finish this up, decided to look into this but some numbers:

Admitting this isn't really something entirely related to the Blazers, but a thought and I'm derailing my own review because this was a move that seemed pretty well received while another was looked at more poorly.

Spoiler:

First, a comparison of 2 players last year:



Wanted to up the minutes, so last 2 seasons:



Now, went to BBall Index to compare the same players last year (left is the player on the top, right on the bottom from the above comparison):



Player who was on the left/top also rates a bit higher in both EPM and a good bit higher in 3 year RAPM. He is 1 year older.

Spoiler:

The top/left is Evan Fournier, the bottom/right is Powell. They're a year different in terms of age and similar AAV in terms of contract, with Powell signed longer.

Grade
B-, I'll admit I wanted to make this lower but the Nance trade saved it, though it really feels like not enough. As with others where it felt like more urgency was needed though, I've left them at B- because I'm unsure what to do about moves not made.

2022 Prediction
Top 6 in the West, between 4-6, just a gut feeling for the regular season.

Offseason in gif form

[HartfordWhalers]

Did they turn a big corner? No but they did the best they could with where they were and what they had.
A-

[eminence]

The Stotts to Billups move is probably the biggest here, and I have no way to effectively grade that as of now, so an incomplete for me.

[Ballerhogger]

How Billups does in up to January well tell if this was good choice . This could really go south quickly. a run back with totally different mindset at HC. Billups wants defensive team , I mean that's why he was hired.. If they cant get better early on a trade has to be works for defender.. Its runback so they should be where they were last year on paper.....C for now I don't think they got better defensively as a team. A coach can only do so much in this league. Tony snell and ben do not make them better on defense.

[cucad8]

Tony snell and ben do not make them better on defense.

But replacing Kanter and Carmelo with Zeller and Nance most certainly does.

[BlazersBroncos]

Tony snell and ben do not make them better on defense.

But replacing Kanter and Carmelo with Zeller and Nance most certainly does.

Snell isnt a bad defender either. He is a great hedge for Nassir Little. If Little doesnt develop into a rotation worthy 15-20mpg guy, we have Snell as the backup plan. I like that for a vet min signing.

End of the day I think they did as good as possible with the assets on hand. Everyone wants to move CJ for a forward upgrade but IMO there just wasnt a trade out there that moved the needle (Butler / Pascal were pipe dreams that never were realistic, Simmons is TBD but I wont hold my breath consitering how Morey values him).

You get graded on what you have to work with and to me PDX did as good as anyone realistically could expect. I also think Nance is as good as RoCo so to me we got him for cheaper than I could hope if your of mind that RoCo is worth 2 FRP (And basically everyone was of that mind last offseason when the deal went down).

[Myth]

The Nance trade was a HUGE save. We traded an unplayable guy for somebody who will be one of the top defenders on the team. I'd say as far as roster turnover to upgrade our defense and getting a coach that theoretically makes us a better defensive team is worthy of more than a B-. Though that is just if we are grading team changes only, and not the uncomfortable vibe of Lillard considering a trade. That part makes sense to drive it down to a B-.

[gom]

I liked Stotts. I like the Blazers got Nance Jr though. I doubt they get Simmons for CJ however, and I don't think I would give up much more.

B-/C+ and I'm a fan of the Blazers in general.

[Soulyss]

I think the question will be can Billups keep the offense efficient while improving the histocially bad defense...

With the new additions (Norm, Nance, Zeller) and a small leap from Little this should go from a historically bad defense to simply "middle of the pack". If that happens the Blazers are a top 4 seed in the West assuming he doesn't tinker with what makes Dame and CJ do toooo much on offense.

[HartfordWhalers]

I think the question will be can Billups keep the offense efficient while improving the histocially bad defense...

With the new additions (Norm, Nance, Zeller) and a small leap from Little this should go from a historically bad defense to simply "middle of the pack". If that happens the Blazers are a top 4 seed in the West assuming he doesn't tinker with what makes Dame and CJ do toooo much on offense.

There are 7-8 top 4 seeds out West. For instance, if everything goes right for LAL, they should be above Por. Utah and Phx have great cases. LAC should fall back without Kawhi, but if everything goes well, Denver certainbly could stay above Por. That would push Por to 5 before a crazy Luka push might even mean 6. And I'm discounting GS, but with Curry, who knows?

Point is not that Portland will be 5-8 definitely at all. Point is they could still be 5-7 and have done the best reasonably possible with the assets they had at the time. I would go 3-6 area, which could be a 1 and done, or a 2nd round appearance or even an improbably wcf appearance. But apart from a Simmons deal which is controversial and even more so just a ball of wax I don't want to touch, I think Portland did very well getting Norm back at a decent deal, getting Nance at a fair price, getting okay bench guys, etc.

I think it was a really solid and good offseason ... even if nothing actually changes in the season results.

[Soulyss]

I think the question will be can Billups keep the offense efficient while improving the histocially bad defense...

With the new additions (Norm, Nance, Zeller) and a small leap from Little this should go from a historically bad defense to simply "middle of the pack". If that happens the Blazers are a top 4 seed in the West assuming he doesn't tinker with what makes Dame and CJ do toooo much on offense.

There are 7-8 top 4 seeds out West. For instance, if everything goes right for LAL, they should be above Por. Utah and Phx have great cases. LAC should fall back without Kawhi, but if everything goes well, Denver certainbly could stay above Por. That would push Por to 5 before a crazy Luka push might even mean 6. And I'm discounting GS, but with Curry, who knows?

Point is not that Portland will be 5-8 definitely at all. Point is they could still be 5-7 and have done the best reasonably possible with the assets they had at the time. I would go 3-6 area, which could be a 1 and done, or a 2nd round appearance or even an improbably wcf appearance. But apart from a Simmons deal which is controversial and even more so just a ball of wax I don't want to touch, I think Portland did very well getting Norm back at a decent deal, getting Nance at a fair price, getting okay bench guys, etc.

I think it was a really solid and good offseason ... even if nothing actually changes in the season results.

Super fair... didn't mean for my opinion to come off as seeing your write-up negatively. I thought all three reviews were solid takes.

Personally I don't see the LAC or DAL as improved, I think they end up below Portland. LAL could be amazing, or could be a walking retirement home, (I think they will be good, but I don't think Russ actually changes their ceiling.. more moves the floor up). PHX, DEN, UTAH, LAL, GSW and POR will fight it out for the top 6 I think.

[HartfordWhalers]

Super fair... didn't mean for my opinion to come off as seeing your write-up negatively. I thought all three reviews were solid takes.

Just to be clear, I didn't do a take in the OP. They did all the hard work and I just snuck in a post saying "well done, a-". And yeah, i gotta say i am appreciating these series a lot.

[Soulyss]

Super fair... didn't mean for my opinion to come off as seeing your write-up negatively. I thought all three reviews were solid takes.

Just to be clear, I didn't do a take in the OP. They did all the hard work and I just snuck in a post saying "well done, a-". And yeah, i gotta say i am appreciating these series a lot.

Agreed... it's been fun to read their analysis. Better than many "professional" takes.

[JasonStern]

Totally depends on your definition of a successful offseason.

If the goal is to win a 'chip, then C-. Nance was a nice addition, but other than that, they're running the same flawed starting 5 back. Retaining Powell at a reasonable contract was great, but again - they just retained him. Greg Brown was a solid pickup - someone that likely would have been a late 1st round pick in a normal draft - but he's unlikely to contribute anytime soon. Zeller is an upgrade defensively but a downgrade offensively to Kanter. But he's injury prone - which could be an issue as Nurkić is far from an ironman. Anthony was washed, but he had a good-to-great game every third game or so. Replacing him with Snell/McLemore doesn't really move the needle. It's pretty much the same team talent-wise, just with a new coach that the Blazers are hoping will magically solve all of Portland's problems, despite Stotts being an above average (but far from great) coach.

If the goal is to keep the team profitable, make the playoffs, avoid off-the-court drama, etc., then B+. Dame bought in for at least one more season. The Blazers are on course for keeping the league's active record for consecutive playoff appearances going. Dame/CJ/Nurk/Powell/Covington/Nance is a solid top 6. Simons/Little/Brown/Elleby provide some young talent to hopefully develop. Zeller/Snell/McLemore are journeymen that should be capable of playing spot minutes. Where they fail to get the elusive A+/A/A- rating is the inability to get under the luxury tax, which would have been possible if not for the Andrew Nicholson stretch. And the off-the-court controversy regarding the Billups signing.

The Blazers still have to acquire one more player, so the final grades are a bit incomplete. But since it's likely just going to be one of Patterson/Chriss/Smith Jr./Blevins on a minimum contract, I'm not expecting the grades to change.

[HornetJail]

B-. They didn't screw anything up but I still don't think they've significantly helped their chances.

I've been fairly critical of the middle of the pack teams that have stayed middle of the pack teams, and the Blazers are no exception. I do think this team is better than they've shown the past couple years but I still don't think they're more than a moderately competitive 1st round exit. They needed to do something bigger than Nance and a coaching change. Like Minnesota, a Simmons acquisition (where they retain Lillard, of course) completely changes the rating, but B- is the absolute most I feel comfortable with giving Portland.

Getting Zeller at a minimum is a great steal and what is giving them my benefit of the doubt. He's a limited minutes guy due to his knee issues but is definitely a high tier backup C when he plays. Having to rely on defensive liabilities like Kanter for major minutes was part of their issue last year when Nurk was hurt, and that's hopefully resolved with Zeller.

[Ell Curry]

I think they did a good job since the Powell number wasn't crazy high and Nance gives them the option of going small at the 5 or bigger with him at the 4, which really might help in the playoffs.

The coaching change, no idea, really. Billups talking about shooting less 3s seems dumb, but we'll see if he gets them playing defensively.

Ultimately, it feels like a lot of their season will hinge on Nasir Little developing. They really need a decent option at the 3 and Covington is probably not quick or skilled enough to make that work. Obviously the best case scenario would seem to be Simons becoming the quality 3rd guard I think he could be (still so young, shoots it well now) and McCollum being traded for a quality wing.

[BelgradeNugget]

I think the question will be can Billups keep the offense efficient while improving the histocially bad defense...

With the new additions (Norm, Nance, Zeller) and a small leap from Little this should go from a historically bad defense to simply "middle of the pack". If that happens the Blazers are a top 4 seed in the West assuming he doesn't tinker with what makes Dame and CJ do toooo much on offense.

As Blazers fan you know more about your team then me, but in last 26 games with everyone healthy and Norm in line Blazers were 18th in the league in DEFRTG which is already middle of the pack. And all replacements to the second unit replacing terrible defenders with good to solid ones could move them to top 10-15 defense IMO. I also think if Billups starts CJ, and plays him with starters at the end of games, but uses Dame/Powell/RoCo/Nence/Nurk lineup for say 20 mins, and play CJ more with bench units could make them really good team. If healthy and with little luck I think they could go to WCF or NBA finals, like Suns did last year.

[Soulyss]

I think the question will be can Billups keep the offense efficient while improving the histocially bad defense...

With the new additions (Norm, Nance, Zeller) and a small leap from Little this should go from a historically bad defense to simply "middle of the pack". If that happens the Blazers are a top 4 seed in the West assuming he doesn't tinker with what makes Dame and CJ do toooo much on offense.

As Blazers fan you know more about your team then me, but in last 26 games with everyone healthy and Norm in line Blazers were 18th in the league in DEFRTG which is already middle of the pack. And all replacements to the second unit replacing terrible defenders with good to solid ones could move them to top 10-15 defense IMO. I also think if Billups starts CJ, and plays him with starters at the end of games, but uses Dame/Powell/RoCo/Nence/Nurk lineup for say 20 mins, and play CJ more with bench units could make them really good team. If healthy and with little luck I think they could go to WCF or NBA finals, like Suns did last year.

Oh I agree with you on the upside, but the West is a slaughterhouse and it's hard for me to see the Blazers having a better record than 4th in the West realistically.. I agree between the improved depth in the bench, a step forward from Simons and Little and better management of Dame's minutes (he's so gassed by the time the Playoffs hit) that Portland could have WCF or NBA Finals upside.

[BelgradeNugget]

I think the question will be can Billups keep the offense efficient while improving the histocially bad defense...

With the new additions (Norm, Nance, Zeller) and a small leap from Little this should go from a historically bad defense to simply "middle of the pack". If that happens the Blazers are a top 4 seed in the West assuming he doesn't tinker with what makes Dame and CJ do toooo much on offense.

As Blazers fan you know more about your team then me, but in last 26 games with everyone healthy and Norm in line Blazers were 18th in the league in DEFRTG which is already middle of the pack. And all replacements to the second unit replacing terrible defenders with good to solid ones could move them to top 10-15 defense IMO. I also think if Billups starts CJ, and plays him with starters at the end of games, but uses Dame/Powell/RoCo/Nence/Nurk lineup for say 20 mins, and play CJ more with bench units could make them really good team. If healthy and with little luck I think they could go to WCF or NBA finals, like Suns did last year.

Oh I agree with you on the upside, but the West is a slaughterhouse and it's hard for me to see the Blazers having a better record than 4th in the West realistically.. I agree between the improved depth in the bench, a step forward from Simons and Little and better management of Dame's minutes (he's so gassed by the time the Playoffs hit) that Portland could have WCF or NBA Finals upside.

West is slaughterhouse but we have many teams on the similar level and injuries and luck could make a lot of difference. I'm obviously biased as Nuggets fan looking at my team but I think Blazers are not worst than Nuggets, Jazz, Suns. Clipps are missing Kawhi, Dallas is not better than last year, and I don't expect that Klay, after not playing for 2 years, can turn team that didn't make playoffs into contender. And I specially don't believe in Lakers due to age, injury history of AD, and Westbrook fit. They were bad offense with great defense and lost two best perimeter defenders in Caruso and KCP.