Is there a good Horford/Dlo trade?

[HartfordWhalers]

Simple question, happy to hear yes and what, or simply no and move on. But given the Wall for Russell thread, I wanted to kick this idea out there and see what people though about it now (Caveat: I liked the idea a few years ago...)

But here is the basis. Minnesota gets a solid team defender and more size, while Boston gets younger and a guard who can space next to Smart next year.

Both make similar money this year, although both teams have tenuous cap situations in regards to the lux tax. Boston is a Juancho trade away from out of it, while Minnesota is under 1m under it. Could be a straight swap (Horford for Russell), or a more complicated deal involving Schroeder after Dec 15th:

Bos out: Horford and Schroder
Bos in: DLo and Layman

Keeps Minnesota under and gets Minnesota a pg replacement as well for this season, while Boston is all about the DLo flier and ultimately looks to salary dump Layman and Juancho to stay below the tax?

Yeah, its not a very fleshed out thread, and I'm open to hearing Boston doesn't want to take on a player with worse impact on winning; or that Minnesota doesn't want bad contracts for their all star, or balancing in between...

[Texas Chuck]

My immediate thought goes to Kemba Walker. And I understand the injury risk and that he probably can't provide the volume of Russell any more. But I think he's still a better basketball player. And Boston chose to give OKC incentive to trade him for Horford.

And then Horford certainly has more positive impact on games still than Russell. So as Boston I would want meaningful incentive to even consider this.

For Minnesota I don't know what they are doing. This swap makes them better, assuming they also found a PG or just played Edwards there for the rest of the year. But how does Towns feel about his buddy being traded for an old man who plays his position? Does taking Towns into account even matter any longer? Who is actually calling the shots? The existing group or the incoming one?

[SmartWentCrazy]

As a Boston fan, I wouldnt trade Horford for Dlo and it would take a material value bridge to get me to consider else wise. Russell just isnt the type of player Boston should look to add next to Brown and Tatum— he’s high volume, low efficiency and a poor defender. Adding Schroder for Layman makes it worse.

[Prokorov]

As a Boston fan, I wouldnt trade Horford for Dlo and it would take a material value bridge to get me to consider else wise. Russell just isnt the type of player Boston should look to add next to Brown and Tatum— he’s high volume, low efficiency and a poor defender. Adding Schroder for Layman makes it worse.

I think DLo is actually a good fit. he is an elite passer. he shoots/scores on volume but he does that more out of necessity. As a net,he deferred until needed or the team fell behind. He was J-Kidd level as a passer, just didnt have the speed to pace the game the way kidd did.

Like Harden to the nets last year, i think he would welcome 5-10 less ppg and leading the league in assists to play with brown/tatum/ He is also super clutch and alot closer to avg then awful defensively.

I think horford for Russell would be enormously positive for boston.

[shangrila]

I'd do it as a follow up to a Towns deal.

In theory it works without that but I think Towns is teetering on the edge already so moving DLo could push him over. Personally I want to move on so I don't care either way but if the goal of the trade is to get competitive and ultimately keep Towns I don't think it'll work out.

[Coxy]

As a Boston fan, I wouldnt trade Horford for Dlo and it would take a material value bridge to get me to consider else wise. Russell just isnt the type of player Boston should look to add next to Brown and Tatum— he’s high volume, low efficiency and a poor defender. Adding Schroder for Layman makes it worse.

I agree 100%.

[BlazersBroncos]

I think Al for DLo would be a great move for Minny, but I dont see why Boston does it. Dennis and DLo are pretty similar talents.

[shrink]

But how does Towns feel about his buddy being traded for an old man who plays his position?

I don’t know if people know this, but Towns has had a ten-year relationship with Horford, ever since he played for the Dominican Republic at age 15. He calls Horford his mentor, and I think KAT could use some daily mentoring.

[Resistance]

I don't have Russell worth the extra Luxury Tax burden versus paying the $14.5 million partial guarantee to Horford and being done with the situation.

2022-23 with a $119 million Salary Cap and Luxury Tax Line of $145 million

..................................With ........Without Russell
.................................Russell.......Horford Buyout
Jayson Tatum.............$30,351,780.....$30,351,780
Jaylen Brown.............$28,741,071.....$28,741,071
Marcus Smart.............$17,207,142.....$17,207,142
Josh Richardson..........$12,196,094.....$12,196,094

Robert Williams III.......$10,714,287.....$10,714,287
Juan Hernangomez........$7,531,880.....$7,531,880
Romeo Langford...........$5,634,257......$5,634,257
Grant Williams.............$4,306,281......$4,306,281

Aaron Nesmith.............$3,804,360......$3,804,360
Payton Pritchard...........$2,239,200......$2,239,200
2022 Boston First*.........$2,800,000......$2,800,000

Min Salary......................$979,466.......$979,466
Min Salary......................$979,466.......$979,466
Min Salary......................$979,466.......$979,466
Min Salary..............................$0.......$979,466

D'Angelo Russell..........$31,377,750................$0
Al Horford.............................$0....$14,500,000
-------------------------------------------------------------------
............................$159,842,500...$143,944,216


Boston would be $1 million below a $145 million Luxury Tax Line by not trading for Russell and closing out the Horford contract at $14.5 million.


Boston wouldn't want to have so many players with zero experience making the Rookie Minimum to avoid luxury tax, but the team salary would be close enough that a few moves should free up a bit more space below the Luxury Tax Line.

* Trade back on the 2022 first to lower the guaranteed salary owed. Pick up some future seconds or other compensation for trading back.

* Trade the 2022 first + Langford (or some other player) for a lower slotted first and less salary coming back

* Hope the Salary Cap and Luxury Tax Line come in higher than the current projections

* Carry 14 players on the roster until the spreadsheet says they can spend a bit more and still avoid luxury tax

* Some other way to trim salary slightly

With Russell's $31.3 million instead of Horford's $14.5 partial guarantee, they aren't going to have an easy path to ducking under the Luxury Tax Line.

______________________
* Estimate or more likely a guess

[slick21]

Would be an excellent move for MIN, but I don't see BOS doing this.

DLo in MIN just isn't working out. I think he could do well elsewhere, but not sure what team takes on his salary. I'm sure trading him would anger KAT, so MIN just might be stuck with him until his deal expires.

[Klomp]

I think this is an interesting idea. A bit sell-low on Russell and buy-high on Horford, but not horrible otherwise.

[hugepatsfan]

Horford has been our best player this year with Tatum’s shooting struggles if we’re being honest. He’s playing really, really well. Better player than DLo and owed less money. Hard time seeing a feasible way to bridge the gap there.

[flaco]

I believe the Celtics need a pass-first, low-usage PG who can switch ball screens on the perimeter. For instance, someone in the mold of Haliburton (pipe dream) or prime George Hill. DLo is the exact opposite: a score-first, high-usage guard who ain't a switchable defender. Don't like the fit alongside Tatum and Brown.

That said, if the Celtics get desperate, I could see them doing something like DLo for Horford+Juancho. Fwiw, Juancho is practically an expiring. His contract is non-guaranteed for next season.

[watch1958]

No real good DLo for Horford trade. Unless it doesn’t include DLo.

[shrink]

Would be an excellent move for MIN, but I don't see BOS doing this.

DLo in MIN just isn't working out. I think he could do well elsewhere, but not sure what team takes on his salary. I'm sure trading him would anger KAT, so MIN just might be stuck with him until his deal expires.

I’m not a DLo fan, but to be fair, he is 6th in the NBA in +/-. Finch starts him, then takes him out after six minutes so he can come back quickly and stabilize MIN’s second unit. He has played particularly well with Beverley, and while he still isn’t a great defender, he is making more effort, on every play, than I have ever seen him do.

And even though we know KAT and DLo are close, his mentor Horford is one of the players I don’t think he’d protest too much over in a Russell trade. If the idea is that KAT is too selfish to trade away Russell, then he could be even more selfish by bringing in Horford to help him improve his game, like not pick up offensive fouls underneath. And of course, if he is being unselfish, Horford fits team needs - a team defending big who can rebound and make an occasional three pointer.

It hurts me to say it, but the Wolves have looked good with Russell on the floor. Their current success probably makes them say no, at least right now. Perhaps this is something they’d reconsider down the line. For BOS, I don’t know. DLo can play some 2, but I agree that’s a lot of money locked into the PG position with Kemba. Maybe there’s something here - which makes it a much, much better idea than most deals involving Russell.

[timeaftertime]

I fail to see why Minnesota would ever make this trade. If D'Lo had like four years left and the Wolves weren't in the playoff hunt, maybe you'd be on to something, but they have the same time left on their deals. Horford absolutely cannot play next to Towns for extended stretches against most teams. He's not mobile enough anymore. Horford also is shooting under 30% from three so far this season and isn't on the court enough to be a major, major upgrade over Vanderbilt. The Wolves also desperately need D'Lo's scoring. His shooting numbers haven't been great, but he's gotten better as the season went on and is significantly better from three. He also gives someone the Wolves to go to in late-game situations, something they couldn't really do with Horford.

There's not a significant quality jump from D'Lo to Horford and their contracts are remarkably similar. It would essentially be the Wolves trading someone who is a solid fit for someone who is not a good fit and would probably be significantly worse in Minnesota.

[HartfordWhalers]

I fail to see why Minnesota would ever make this trade. If D'Lo had like four years left and the Wolves weren't in the playoff hunt, maybe you'd be on to something, but they have the same time left on their deals. Horford absolutely cannot play next to Towns for extended stretches against most teams. He's not mobile enough anymore. Horford also is shooting under 30% from three so far this season and isn't on the court enough to be a major, major upgrade over Vanderbilt. The Wolves also desperately need D'Lo's scoring. His shooting numbers haven't been great, but he's gotten better as the season went on and is significantly better from three. He also gives someone the Wolves to go to in late-game situations, something they couldn't really do with Horford.

There's not a significant quality jump from D'Lo to Horford and their contracts are remarkably similar. It would essentially be the Wolves trading someone who is a solid fit for someone who is not a good fit and would probably be significantly worse in Minnesota.

Are you saying Towns isn’t agile enough to play pf?

[timeaftertime]

I fail to see why Minnesota would ever make this trade. If D'Lo had like four years left and the Wolves weren't in the playoff hunt, maybe you'd be on to something, but they have the same time left on their deals. Horford absolutely cannot play next to Towns for extended stretches against most teams. He's not mobile enough anymore. Horford also is shooting under 30% from three so far this season and isn't on the court enough to be a major, major upgrade over Vanderbilt. The Wolves also desperately need D'Lo's scoring. His shooting numbers haven't been great, but he's gotten better as the season went on and is significantly better from three. He also gives someone the Wolves to go to in late-game situations, something they couldn't really do with Horford.

There's not a significant quality jump from D'Lo to Horford and their contracts are remarkably similar. It would essentially be the Wolves trading someone who is a solid fit for someone who is not a good fit and would probably be significantly worse in Minnesota.

Are you saying Towns isn’t agile enough to play pf?

He's always struggled to stay in front of quicker PFs.

It's just one of the MANY problems with this trade. Horford is a really bad fit in Minnesota and D'Lo is their starting PG and they don't have a ton of PG depth. It feels like you started with wanting the Celtics to trade Horford and worked backwards without thinking about the fit for the other team.

[HartfordWhalers]

I fail to see why Minnesota would ever make this trade. If D'Lo had like four years left and the Wolves weren't in the playoff hunt, maybe you'd be on to something, but they have the same time left on their deals. Horford absolutely cannot play next to Towns for extended stretches against most teams. He's not mobile enough anymore. Horford also is shooting under 30% from three so far this season and isn't on the court enough to be a major, major upgrade over Vanderbilt. The Wolves also desperately need D'Lo's scoring. His shooting numbers haven't been great, but he's gotten better as the season went on and is significantly better from three. He also gives someone the Wolves to go to in late-game situations, something they couldn't really do with Horford.

There's not a significant quality jump from D'Lo to Horford and their contracts are remarkably similar. It would essentially be the Wolves trading someone who is a solid fit for someone who is not a good fit and would probably be significantly worse in Minnesota.

Are you saying Towns isn’t agile enough to play pf?

He's always struggled to stay in front of quicker PFs.

It's just one of the MANY problems with this trade. Horford is a really bad fit in Minnesota and D'Lo is their starting PG and they don't have a ton of PG depth. It feels like you started with wanting the Celtics to trade Horford and worked backwards without thinking about the fit for the other team.

Interesting perspective.

I was deeply concerned that it would appear I was starting with the perspective of wanting to get Minnesota a winning player who is a plus on defense and could help fix their lack of size.

Most of the comments seem to think it misses for Boston more so than Minnesota. But I always try to use Westland when fans of a team think what they have is better than everyone else thinks it is.

[spankymoore7]

I don't understand this for Minnesota...they get older and a more awkward roster fit with having both Horford and Towns