CHI- DET - PDX - PHL

[Village Idiot]

Chicago trades:

DJJ
Portland 1st

Chicago receives:

Robert Covington
1st round pick - least favorable of Philedelphia or Portland's 2022 pick

Detroit trades:

Jerami Grant

Detroit receives:

Tyrese Maxey
Derrick Jones Jr.

Maxey would be a great compliment to Cade. He's cheap too for another couple of years. DJJ is ending salary filler

Philadelphia trades:

Ben Simmons
Tyrese Maxey
Matisse Thybulle
2022 1st unprotected
2023 1st - swap rights to Portland
2024 1st - unprotected

Philadelphia receives:

Damian Lillard
CJ Elleby

The Sixers get their guy

Portland trades:

Damian Lillard
Robert Covington
CJ Elleby

Portland receives:

Ben Simmons
Jerami Grant
Matisse Thybulle
2022 1st - most favorable of own or Philadelphia's picks
2023 1st - pick swap with Philadelphia
2024 1st - unprotected from Philadelphia

Portland gets Chauncey Billups the long and defensively focussed guys he craves. CJ McCollum gets a chance to finally emerge from Lillard's shadow and show what he can do as the go-to guy. Simmons gets a chance resusitate his career.

[VDT]

Lillard doesnt have this ridiculous value. 31 year old, diminutive guard, on what seems like a steep decline and on an outrageous contract is a risk for any team, even if he comes for free. He doesnt have much value, if he is not a negative contract already.

[stormi]

I'd rather send that package to OKC on my hands and knees for Shai.

Lillard <<<<<<

[BullyKing]

Lillard doesnt have this ridiculous value. 31 year old, diminutive guard, on what seems like a steep decline and on an outrageous contract is a risk for any team, even if he comes for free. He doesnt have much value, if he is not a negative contract already.

Come on man. I'm not sure if I'd do this either because there are risks but Lillard clearly has significant value. He remains a top-10 player in the game.

[VDT]

Lillard doesnt have this ridiculous value. 31 year old, diminutive guard, on what seems like a steep decline and on an outrageous contract is a risk for any team, even if he comes for free. He doesnt have much value, if he is not a negative contract already.

Come on man. I'm not sure if I'd do this either because there are risks but Lillard clearly has significant value. He remains a top-10 player in the game.

Lillard is 3 more years, after this, under contract for an average of 45 mil per year. There is an extremely high likilihood that he is not going to produce this value on court over this period. He only has value for a team that needs to go all in right now and doesnt care about the future. Even then, i) this team will need to give as less value as possible because they need to immediately become a contender for this trade to make any sense ii) Lillards decline (he may improve somewhat but lets face it, 6 ft scoring guards dont age well) makes it hard to build a contender with him getting all these money even if you dont have to give anything beyond matching his salary (i.e. treating him as a salary dump).

Any team that guts their roster and asset base to get 31 year old Lillard on this contract is simply dumb (or desperate), no way around it.

[BullyKing]

Lillard doesnt have this ridiculous value. 31 year old, diminutive guard, on what seems like a steep decline and on an outrageous contract is a risk for any team, even if he comes for free. He doesnt have much value, if he is not a negative contract already.

Come on man. I'm not sure if I'd do this either because there are risks but Lillard clearly has significant value. He remains a top-10 player in the game.

Any team that guts their roster and asset base to get 31 year old Lillard on this contract is simply dumb (or desperate), no way around it.

I deleted your first paragraph because I already acknowledged there are legitimate concerns.

As for your second paragraph, I only contested your claim that he doesn't have much value while suggesting he might have negative value. That's quite different than questioning whether someone should gut their roster and asset base for him, which as I indicated by questioning whether I would do this trade, is a concern I share.

[VDT]

Come on man. I'm not sure if I'd do this either because there are risks but Lillard clearly has significant value. He remains a top-10 player in the game.

Any team that guts their roster and asset base to get 31 year old Lillard on this contract is simply dumb (or desperate), no way around it.

I deleted your first paragraph because I already acknowledged there are legitimate concerns.

As for your second paragraph, I only contested your claim that he doesn't have much value while suggesting he might have negative value. That's quite different than questioning whether someone should gut their roster and asset base for him, which as I indicated by questioning whether I would do this trade, is a concern I share.

As i said, his value, until the end of his contract, is probably negative imo, in the sense that his production / $ will be below average.

He is not Wall/Westbrook value yet, he wll get there if he doesnt improve, but i dont see any team trying to offer much more than the less valuable 40 mil contracts they have, just to match his salary. Maybe they can offer a pick if they are sending another albatross contract, but i doubt the Blazers are getting major assets for him, unless they find a team forced to make a trade. Like the Sixers in a way, but even then i dont see Morey offering anything more than Simmons (if that).

[youngcrev]

Lillard doesnt have this ridiculous value. 31 year old, diminutive guard, on what seems like a steep decline and on an outrageous contract is a risk for any team, even if he comes for free. He doesnt have much value, if he is not a negative contract already.

Come on man. I'm not sure if I'd do this either because there are risks but Lillard clearly has significant value. He remains a top-10 player in the game.

Lillard is 3 more years, after this, under contract for an average of 45 mil per year. There is an extremely high likilihood that he is not going to produce this value on court over this period. He only has value for a team that needs to go all in right now and doesnt care about the future. Even then, i) this team will need to give as less value as possible because they need to immediately become a contender for this trade to make any sense ii) Lillards decline (he may improve somewhat but lets face it, 6 ft scoring guards dont age well) makes it hard to build a contender with him getting all these money even if you dont have to give anything beyond matching his salary (i.e. treating him as a salary dump).

Any team that guts their roster and asset base to get 31 year old Lillard on this contract is simply dumb (or desperate), no way around it.

I mean... Aren't we kinda there? Superstar in his prime with an unknown expiration date, and a secondary star that refuses to play for the team.

There's certainly a lot of risk involved for the future, but a team headlined by Embiid and Dame is an obvious title contender.

Also, it's not completely unheard of for a small guard to have longevity in this league, particularly ones that can shoot. You've got Steph and CP3 doing it as we speak.

[Texas Chuck]

Looking at production to dollar amount is one way of looking at value, but definitely not the only way or in many cases the best way. People love to focus on rookie contracts or other below market contracts and their value. And no question getting more bang for your bunk is valuable.

But even more valuable is elite talent. And make no mistake Dame still represents that unless this injury is somehow career threatening/altering. The hardest thing to get isn't players who outproduce their contracts. The hardest thing to get is elite legit game-changers. I could field an entire team of players who outperform their contracts and still quite easily lose to a team with questionable ones, if that latter team has more difference makers.

Tobias Harris is overpaid. Dorian Finney-Smith is underpaid. But Harris is a difference maker in a way DFS will never be.

So maybe I'm crazy but if I can upgrade Maxey to Dame using a player who won't play for me, Thybulle, 2 1sts and a swap well I'm doing it and trying to win a title the next 3 years with Embiid and Dame. No guarantees of course, but I feel much closer.

[GutUNC]

Looking at production to dollar amount is one way of looking at value, but definitely not the only way or in many cases the best way. People love to focus on rookie contracts or other below market contracts and their value. And no question getting more bang for your bunk is valuable.

But even more valuable is elite talent. And make no mistake Dame still represents that unless this injury is somehow career threatening/altering. The hardest thing to get isn't players who outproduce their contracts. The hardest thing to get is elite legit game-changers. I could field an entire team of players who outperform their contracts and still quite easily lose to a team with questionable ones, if that latter team has more difference makers.

Tobias Harris is overpaid. Dorian Finney-Smith is underpaid. But Harris is a difference maker in a way DFS will never be.

So maybe I'm crazy but if I can upgrade Maxey to Dame using a player who won't play for me, Thybulle, 2 1sts and a swap well I'm doing it and trying to win a title the next 3 years with Embiid and Dame. No guarantees of course, but I feel much closer.

This.

I'll wait for Lillard to prove he's healthy and I'll try to negotiate down from there as the price seems a bit steep, but the no risk move does not exist and there's no guarantee a prettier girl is walking around that corner.

[VDT]

Looking at production to dollar amount is one way of looking at value, but definitely not the only way or in many cases the best way. People love to focus on rookie contracts or other below market contracts and their value. And no question getting more bang for your bunk is valuable.

But even more valuable is elite talent. And make no mistake Dame still represents that unless this injury is somehow career threatening/altering. The hardest thing to get isn't players who outproduce their contracts. The hardest thing to get is elite legit game-changers. I could field an entire team of players who outperform their contracts and still quite easily lose to a team with questionable ones, if that latter team has more difference makers.

Essentially, it is about how much "production" you can put on the floor given the NBA rules, i.e. limited salary cap and only 5 players on the court at the same time. Above average players on average contract (i.e. not over/under-paid) have value because of the 5 player limit. You can have 15 above average contracts but if they are middling players, you are not winning anything. Similarly, above average contracts, all else being equal, allow you to put more production on the court. Elite talent, due to the max salary, can be both, which is why it is the most important thing in winning the title. Lillard at this point doesnt look like an elite player (and if we want to be exact, he never was a best player on title team kind of player imo) and he is not on a good contract. He is a good/very good (assuming he imporves) but declining player on a huge contract.

So maybe I'm crazy but if I can upgrade Maxey to Dame using a player who won't play for me, Thybulle, 2 1sts and a swap well I'm doing it and trying to win a title the next 3 years with Embiid and Dame. No guarantees of course, but I feel much closer.

The Sixers were eliminated last year by the Hawks, they need to improve compared to their last year team. Simmons not playing is unfortunate and has certainly derealied their season, but just trying to improve compared to the present team (i.e. without Simmons) is short-sighted imo(even disregarding Simmons i am not sure for how long Lillard will be a better on court value than the trade package the Sixers are sending out, i doubt it will be forthe next 3 years). The Sixers want to contend. Does this trade make them contenders? i doubt it and if Lillard keeps playing that way i would say there is 0 chance.

[Texas Chuck]

Yeah we are just going to disagree on how good Dame is. And him being the best player on a champ is only so relevant. AD wasn't that guy either, but sure was valuable for the Lakers as the 2nd guy with Lebron. Jrue was a 3rd guy, but sure important to the Bucks behind Giannis/Jrue. Is there a better duo than Embiid/Dame in the league right now? Durant/Harden have an argument on pure talent for sure, but not quite as symbiotic. Curry/Draymond even more symbiotic but not quite as talented probably. Lebron/AD currently aren't that.

And having the best duo on the court in every series just holds a lot more value to me than you I guess.

[JRoy]

Lillard is playing hurt but the timing of him sitting out a few games right when Olshey gets fired is interesting.

[youngcrev]

Realistically, this just ends up being a straight up Portland/Philly deal, right? I can't see the Blazers actually preferring Grant over Maxey in a Dame trade (particularly one that nets Simmons), and Morey would likely covet Covington in a scenario where he's dealing both of his top perimeter defenders.

Dame-Green-Covington-Harris-Embiid with Curry as 6th man feels like a title favorite.

On Portland's end, if they were to decide it's time to move on from Dame, getting back young players that are the caliber of Simmons and Maxey, plus a bunch of picks, feels like about as good of an outcome as they could expect.

[ChettheJet]

I really think Covington is an upgrade over DJJ but he's the same type of 3/4 forward and not the big PF/C the Bulls actually need. So to me it's potentially trading down several spots for a a slight upgrade that doesn't really solve their problem.

The other thing makes no sense. The Bulls trade the probable PORT 2022 FRP they got with DJJ, and they get Covington and either the PHIL or the PORT 2022 pick whichever is a higher pick. How do the Bulls potentially trade the pick they got from PORT for possibly the same PORT pick?

[Fitz303]

Lillard just did a Reddit AMA yesterday, right after the Olshey firing and had a response about "ring or bust", and it certainly sounded like he's riding this train until the final stop. I just don't think there is any way that Damian Lillard leaves Portland.

I think CJ McCollum is the player that is moved (likely with Robert Covington) and hope that the player coming back fits better with this roster and what Chauncey Billups wants to do. This roster cannot physically play the way that Billups wants to play. They will need to get more length, move Powell to SG and rely on the continued improvements from Simons and Little, while bringing in a better fit at the 3/4 with whatever return CJ and Roco bring. Time will tell if that works in making them a contender, but if it doesn't, I think Lillard will go down with the ship trying.

"I've done so much in my career that I know that I have a great body of work. I will feel that way with or without a championship ring, but the reason I play is for a championship ring. So, I don't believe in the ring or bust thing, I'm not a fan of that, and that's why I don't play my career to that narrative. I'm not making every decision, like 'Oh I should do this or I should do that to get a ring', because knowing myself and knowing I feel in my heart and the way that I operate, I don't think it would be as fulfilling or as great of a feeling as I imagine it'd being if I felt like I got beside myself or stepped outside of myself to try to accomplish that.

I've had players around the league tell me, like, 'Man, you should go here or you should leave,' because they want it for me. Sometimes you have people around the league that you're cool with it that have experienced it or have not and see you as somebody that can do something different and have an opportunity to win it so they want that for you. So, they make suggestions and things like that but I think that at the end of the day they respect my stance. It's not in disrespect to anybody else who made a different decision, it's just in respect for me standing in what I believe and being able to deal with whatever the consequences are."

https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/r86tvp/whats_good_rnba_dame_lillard_here_with_gatorade/
video: https://streamable.com/29vi11

[Village Idiot]

Realistically, this just ends up being a straight up Portland/Philly deal, right? I can't see the Blazers actually preferring Grant over Maxey in a Dame trade (particularly one that nets Simmons), and Morey would likely covet Covington in a scenario where he's dealing both of his top perimeter defenders.

Dame-Green-Covington-Harris-Embiid with Curry as 6th man feels like a title favorite.

On Portland's end, if they were to decide it's time to move on from Dame, getting back young players that are the caliber of Simmons and Maxey, plus a bunch of picks, feels like about as good of an outcome as they could expect.

Portland already has Anfernee Simons who is very similar to Maxey in many ways but even more athletic. Their per 36 numbers are nearly identical. Asuming under this scenario that Portland doesn't tear it down but keeps CJ and Powell until at least the end of the season, the back-court is well covered with Simmons also playing some point forward.

Jason Quick, in The Athletic, stated that Billups ideally wants to have a bunch of long, switchable players. He's frustrated with a line-up featuring a 63 SF in Norm Powell. Grant fits that objective to a T.

[Village Idiot]

I think CJ McCollum is the player that is moved (likely with Robert Covington) and hope that the player coming back fits better with this roster and what Chauncey Billups wants to do. This roster cannot physically play the way that Billups wants to play. They will need to get more length, move Powell to SG and rely on the continued improvements from Simons and Little, while bringing in a better fit at the 3/4 with whatever return CJ and Roco bring. Time will tell if that works in making them a contender, but if it doesn't, I think Lillard will go down with the ship trying.

That would definitely be preferable but who they could acquire with that package is the question.

[DeBlazerRiddem]

Best case scenario of trading Lillard for Simmons is a return right into 1st round exit mediocrity for a few years before Simmons decides to sign his next contract in LA. More likely that he forces his way there sooner, especially if Portland doesn't just accept that 1st round mediocrity and tries to gut the roster around him to add more talent.

[Snakebites]

I like it for Detroit, and I think that Philly should do it. I don't buy the "decline of Lillard" narrative.

If I'm Portland I'm not sure this is the return I want for Dame, but it's decent value if Lillard wishes to leave.