The Luka trade framework, how far would OKC go to outbid SAS and others?

[HadAnEffectHere]

The Mavs are on the verge of missing the postseason for back to back years in Luka's prime which is actually incredible to think about. They have traded away essentially all of their draft picks, have no cap space, Kyrie is likely to decline due to age and injuries and can leave in free agency in 2025 if not, and they only have one good prospect on the roster in Lively.

Luka's contract goes until 2026 so the Mavs have some time to turn it around (and they will surely fire Jason Kidd in the offseason), but if they're still struggling so badly by the trade deadline next year, they may have to trade him.

ON THE SUPERMAX: Since this is all Mavs' fans ever bring up, yes, Luka would not be eligible for a supermax if traded and this gives him some incentive to not ask for a trade, but let's break down the numbers.

Luka has played 6 years in the NBA and will have played 8 years in the NBA when his current contract comes to an end (based on the player option). With the Mavs, he could sign for 35% of the cap for four years and he can't do this if he is traded. However, he would be eligible to get 35% of the cap with his new team are just playing for two more years. If Luka asks for a trade, he is giving up having 35% of the cap for two years and would have to settle for getting 30% of the cap for two years. Based on cap estimates, Luka would be giving up $18m. A decent chunk of change, obviously, but Luka is also almost certain to make over half a billion dollars before endorsements so I'm not sure $18m would cause him to stay in Dallas for at least three more years.

An OKC offer starts with Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace and cap filler. My question is how many picks OKC throws in to get Luka as he's such a bad fit with SGA. SGA+Luka+Chet is basically the Heat Big 3 with better role players (which is great!)... except Luka is so much worse than LeBron at defense that it makes the fit more questionable. OKC would obviously throw in many picks, but I'm not sure how many.

San Antonio will be the main competition to note as they would obviously trade Sochan, Vassell, the two players they pick in this year's draft, and a good chunk of their upcoming 15 picks. The question here is how many picks they would have to give up to outdo Jalen Williams in value as.... Jalen Williams is extremely good.

Utah, Orlando, and Denver (along with most of the rest of the NBA), will also try to get involved in this, but both seem unlikely to be able to outbid OKC and San Antonio.

Who would give the best offer to Luka in your opinion?

[jayjaysee]

If Luka demands out.. Dallas will have a huge trade return from Luka, a smaller return from Kyrie, and will be able to tank for 1-2 years before the pick debt kicks in. Get an asset for PJ and Gafford..

by start of 2027 season when Charlotte has Dallas’ pick they’ll have tanked for 1-2 drafts prior, gotten a blue chip and multiple firsts for Luka, gotten 2ish firsts for Kyrie and will have cleared out most of whatever salaries come back in those trades.

I’m honestly thinking some Realgm posters will feel Dallas would be better off doing that than building around Luka. And that’s confusing to me. And then if some team gave 29 year old Luka a 35% percent max, would probably speak about how bad the back couple years of it would will be.

If Dallas misses the playoffs, what I’d think happens is Kidd gets fired and/or Kyrie gets traded to LAL. And Dallas can sell the fan base/Luka on free agency 2025 or put a competitive offer in for Lauri/other younger stars.

[AingesBurner]

Utah would offer George, Sensabaugh, Kessler, and 6-7 1sts. Try to beat that.

[AingesBurner]

If Luka demands out.. Dallas will have a huge trade return from Luka, a smaller return from Kyrie, and will be able to tank for 1-2 years before the pick debt kicks in. Get an asset for PJ and Gafford..

by start of 2027 season when Charlotte has Dallas’ pick they’ll have tanked for 1-2 drafts prior, gotten a blue chip and multiple firsts for Luka, gotten 2ish firsts for Kyrie and will have cleared out most of whatever salaries come back in those trades.

I’m honestly thinking some Realgm posters will feel Dallas would be better off doing that than building around Luka. And that’s confusing to me. And then if some team gave 29 year old Luka a 35% percent max, would probably speak about how bad the back couple years of it would will be.

If Dallas misses the playoffs, what I’d think happens is Kidd gets fired and/or Kyrie gets traded to LAL. And Dallas can sell the fan base/Luka on free agency 2025 or put a competitive offer in for Lauri/other younger stars.

Utah would going after Luka, Dallas lacks assets.

[HadAnEffectHere]

Utah would offer George, Sensabaugh, Kessler, and 6-7 1sts. Try to beat that.

This is incredibly easy to beat?

Spurs offer

Top 4 pick
#8 pick
Unprotected 2025 and 2027 Hawks picks
2025 Bulls pick
Return of 2030 Mavs unprotected swap
Vassell
Sochan
Unprotected picks of their own from 2029 to 2031.

... They still keep a lot of draft picks too...

Sensabaugh has been horrible in the G League and has no value, Kessler and George have mid to late lottery value, none of the Jazz's firsts are good other than the 2027 Lakers pick.

Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace alone easily beat the Jazz's offer.

[esvl]

If Memphis decide to participate, the bid war would be immediately over.

[HadAnEffectHere]

If Memphis decide to participate, the bid war would be immediately over.

....... No? Jalen Williams has more trade value than Ja and a good bit more than JJJ.

[SNPA]

And why wouldn’t Dallas want SGA or Chet?

[MoneyTalks41890]

And why wouldn’t Dallas want SGA or Chet?

If Dallas is trading Luka, which we aren't close to imo, they only have to beat the next best offer. This is Presti, he's not a sucker.

[SNPA]

And why wouldn’t Dallas want SGA or Chet?

If Dallas is trading Luka, which we aren't close to imo, they only have to beat the next best offer. This is Presti, he's not a sucker.

If a team can get Luka without adding either of their two best players then more power to them. If I was Dallas I’d start by asking for SGA+. Then move to Chet+.

[HadAnEffectHere]

And why wouldn’t Dallas want SGA or Chet?

If Dallas is trading Luka, which we aren't close to imo, they only have to beat the next best offer. This is Presti, he's not a sucker.

If a team can get Luka without adding either of their two best players then more power to them. If I was Dallas I’d start by asking for SGA+. Then move to Chet+.

Chet is a no go because three high usage ball handlers is horrible for a team and Chet's spacing is defense is very needed with Luka. OKC has three extremely high value young stars, Jalen Williams beats almost all offers.

[Colbinii]

A team like Orlando or Cleveland could make for an interesting offer. Garland+Mobley or Paolo+ are more interesting than a poo-poo platter of picks.

Unfortunately Minnesota can't put a great offer on the table unless they include ANT, but I don't think they would trade him.

Williams/Picks is interesting from OKC. Ja + Picks is also intriguing. Houston could also put together a good package.

[SNPA]

If Dallas is trading Luka, which we aren't close to imo, they only have to beat the next best offer. This is Presti, he's not a sucker.

If a team can get Luka without adding either of their two best players then more power to them. If I was Dallas I’d start by asking for SGA+. Then move to Chet+.

Chet is a no go because three high usage ball handlers is horrible for a team and Chet's spacing is defense is very needed with Luka. OKC has three extremely high value young stars, Jalen Williams beats almost all offers.

I would have the gap from Williams to Luka as substantial. Just 6-7 random picks wouldn’t do it. It would have to include at least 2-3 picks that look to be top 5ish. I’m not sure even that would be the best offer, depending on dark horse teams and Dallas’ goals.

[HadAnEffectHere]

A team like Orlando or Cleveland could make for an interesting offer. Garland+Mobley or Paolo+ are more interesting than a poo-poo platter of picks.

Unfortunately Minnesota can't put a great offer on the table unless they include ANT, but I don't think they would trade him.

Williams/Picks is interesting from OKC. Ja + Picks is also intriguing. Houston could also put together a good package.

The issue with any team other than SAS or OKC trading for Luka is that they have the risk of Luka leaving because the team isn't good enough to win titles with how much they have to give up to get Luka.

Luka on OKC or SAS instantly competes for titles.

[Texas Chuck]

ON THE SUPERMAX: Since this is all Mavs' fans ever bring up,

I get why you want to explore this idea. But kindly don't invent narratives and generalize a fanbase while telling them why they are doomed and their star is gone. We can do this without that tack.

[esvl]

If Memphis decide to participate, the bid war would be immediately over.

....... No? Jalen Williams has more trade value than Ja and a good bit more than JJJ.

I stand corrected with regard to OKC.

[Texas Chuck]

Oh and while I hate to burst bubbles, Luka would have a list. And not a long one. This would never be a wide open bidding. Some teams just don't get to play in the Luka sweepstakes if it gets to that. I know that makes threads like this less fun so feel free to disregard and dream, but for those who like dealing in reality, this is almost certainly the case, sorry.

[HadAnEffectHere]

Oh and while I hate to burst bubbles, Luka would have a list. And not a long one. This would never be a wide open bidding. Some teams just don't get to play in the Luka sweepstakes if it gets to that. I know that makes threads like this less fun so feel free to disregard and dream, but for those who like dealing in reality, this is almost certainly the case, sorry.

It doesn't matter what his list is, he wouldn't leave OKC or SAS.

Luka trying to force his way to LA would be sadder than Lillard trying to force his way to Miami and immediately getting his bluff called.

[Colbinii]

If a team can get Luka without adding either of their two best players then more power to them. If I was Dallas I’d start by asking for SGA+. Then move to Chet+.

Chet is a no go because three high usage ball handlers is horrible for a team and Chet's spacing is defense is very needed with Luka. OKC has three extremely high value young stars, Jalen Williams beats almost all offers.

I would have the gap from Williams to Luka as substantial. Just 6-7 random picks wouldn’t do it. It would have to include at least 2-3 picks that look to be top 5ish. I’m not sure even that would be the best offer, depending on dark horse teams and Dallas’ goals.

Oklahoma City has multiple picks I would consider "High Variance".

2024 HOU 1st [Top 4 Protected] projected to be 9-11 this year
2025 LAC 1st Swap [Unprotected] -- This has a lot of variance, especially if PG13 leaves, though it is likely he stays in LA
2025 MIA 1st [Lotto Protected, 2026 Unprotected] -- Unprotected in 2 years, hard to imagine but its possible with injuries
2025 PHI 1st [Top 6, Top 4, Top 4] -- Philadelphia is a Lottery team without Embiid and Embiid has an extensive injury list
2026 LAC 1st [Unprotected] or HOU 1st [Top 4 Protected]
2027 LAC 1st Swap [Unprotected]
2028 DAL 1st [Unprotected]

Then, OKC has this pick which is likely to convey at this point, this year:
2024 UTA 1st [Top 10 Projected] projected to be 9-12 this year.

This means things aren't completely random, though we can never know for certain which teams will be bad each year. I would value the 2024 HOU 1st, 2026 LAC 1st and 2028 DAL 1st as the highest value moving forward.

[SNPA]

What would Dallas want? Rebuilding package? Stars?