Page 1 of 5

Value of the #1 pick

Posted: Thu May 30, 2024 3:06 pm
by Jadoogar
Pure hypothetical, i don't think the Hawks move the #1 pick.

Let's say the Hawks have a mandate to make the playoffs and win atleast one series. Their best option is surround Young and Murray with an additional star. I don't believe a rookie is going to fill that role. Let's assume they believe Murray and Young can work together but all other players are on the table.

Who is the best player they could realistically get with the #1 pick? Could they get someone like Markkanen? Is that too much? Not enough? I have no idea how to judge this year's draft.

Re: Value of the #1 pick

Posted: Thu May 30, 2024 3:12 pm
by gswhoops
Are we talking #1 pick in a package or straight up for the #1 pick and salary filler?

Some guys that seem about right value-wise (but might not be available for various reasons): Lauri, Mikal Bridges, Franz Wagner (if Orlando is making a bigger move and the third team wants rebuilding assets), Brandon Ingram

Re: Value of the #1 pick

Posted: Thu May 30, 2024 3:21 pm
by balsamic_ducks
Jazz fans will probably disagree but I would trade Lauri for #1 if I were them. Lauri is 27, going to be demanding a big contract and i dont think they're close to competing. Reset with the #1 pick this year and you can tank hard in a way better draft in 25 without worry

Re: Value of the #1 pick

Posted: Thu May 30, 2024 3:21 pm
by Jadoogar
gswhoops wrote:Are we talking #1 pick in a package or straight up for the #1 pick and salary filler?


You're going to need add salary to acquire a player so i think you have to consider a package. Unfortunately i don't think guys like Hunter or Capela have a ton of value so they aren't really going to move the needle very much. The prize of any package will be the pick, players will merely be salary matching (in most cases).

I'm assuming they won't include Jalen Johnson (unless they are getting an all-nba level player).

Re: Value of the #1 pick

Posted: Thu May 30, 2024 3:21 pm
by nate33
Jadoogar wrote:Pure hypothetical, i don't think the Hawks move the #1 pick.

Let's say the Hawks have a mandate to make the playoffs and win atleast one series. Their best option is surround Young and Murray with an additional star. I don't believe a rookie is going to fill that role. Let's assume they believe Murray and Young can work together but all other players are on the table.

Who is the best player they could realistically get with the #1 pick? Could they get someone like Markkanen? Is that too much? Not enough? I have no idea how to judge this year's draft.

The #1 pick in this draft does not land you Markkanen. I don't think it even gets you Mikal Bridges.

It's a tough question to answer because the value of any "star" player going to Atlanta will depend a lot on that player's age, contract, and the desire of that player's current team to rebuild.

Washington would surely trade Kuzma, but they wouldn't trade Avdija given his age and cheap contract.

Portland would most likely trade Grant and/or Brogdon, but I'm sure Atlanta isn't getting very excited over that.

Perhaps Houston would trade one of their young guys (Whitmore, Eason) with the goal of rolling back the date they need to resign them to second contracts.

Maybe, Cleveland would trade Garland for the #1 pick given Garland's contract and their log jam at lead guard. (Obviously, Garland wouldn't fit in Atlanta so a 3-way is needed.)

Re: Value of the #1 pick

Posted: Thu May 30, 2024 3:23 pm
by nate33
balsamic_ducks wrote:Jazz fans will probably disagree but I would trade Lauri for #1 if I were them. Lauri is 27, going to be demanding a big contract and i dont think they're close to competing. Reset with the #1 pick this year and you can tank hard in a way better draft in 25 without worry

I think Utah would do much better getting a pick package from OKC.

I'd much rather have Giddey, a couple of 2025 mid first round picks, and a couple of 2026 mid first round picks, than the #1 pick in the 2024 draft.

Re: Value of the #1 pick

Posted: Thu May 30, 2024 3:28 pm
by Colbinii
If I am Toronto, I think long and hard about Scottie Barnes for the #1 Pick
Lauri Markkanen
Ingram+Daniels+#17 or #21+Better of 2025 1sts
Randle+#24+#25

Re: Value of the #1 pick

Posted: Thu May 30, 2024 3:32 pm
by Ball4life32
nate33 wrote:
Jadoogar wrote:Pure hypothetical, i don't think the Hawks move the #1 pick.

Let's say the Hawks have a mandate to make the playoffs and win atleast one series. Their best option is surround Young and Murray with an additional star. I don't believe a rookie is going to fill that role. Let's assume they believe Murray and Young can work together but all other players are on the table.

Who is the best player they could realistically get with the #1 pick? Could they get someone like Markkanen? Is that too much? Not enough? I have no idea how to judge this year's draft.

The #1 pick in this draft does not land you Markkanen. I don't think it even gets you Mikal Bridges.

It's a tough question to answer because the value of any "star" player going to Atlanta will depend a lot on that player's age, contract, and the desire of that player's current team to rebuild.

Washington would surely trade Kuzma, but they wouldn't trade Avdija given his age and cheap contract.

Portland would most likely trade Grant and/or Brogdon, but I'm sure Atlanta isn't getting very excited over that.

Perhaps Houston would trade one of their young guys (Whitmore, Eason) with the goal of rolling back the date they need to resign them to second contracts.

Maybe, Cleveland would trade Garland for the #1 pick given Garland's contract and their log jam at lead guard. (Obviously, Garland wouldn't fit in Atlanta so a 3-way is needed.)

Lauri has one year left on his deal, I would not trade the #1 pick for an expiring either. No shot Kuzma, Grant/Brogdon gets even close to the #1 pick.

Re: Value of the #1 pick

Posted: Thu May 30, 2024 3:36 pm
by nate33
Ball4life32 wrote:
nate33 wrote:
Jadoogar wrote:Pure hypothetical, i don't think the Hawks move the #1 pick.

Let's say the Hawks have a mandate to make the playoffs and win atleast one series. Their best option is surround Young and Murray with an additional star. I don't believe a rookie is going to fill that role. Let's assume they believe Murray and Young can work together but all other players are on the table.

Who is the best player they could realistically get with the #1 pick? Could they get someone like Markkanen? Is that too much? Not enough? I have no idea how to judge this year's draft.

The #1 pick in this draft does not land you Markkanen. I don't think it even gets you Mikal Bridges.

It's a tough question to answer because the value of any "star" player going to Atlanta will depend a lot on that player's age, contract, and the desire of that player's current team to rebuild.

Washington would surely trade Kuzma, but they wouldn't trade Avdija given his age and cheap contract.

Portland would most likely trade Grant and/or Brogdon, but I'm sure Atlanta isn't getting very excited over that.

Perhaps Houston would trade one of their young guys (Whitmore, Eason) with the goal of rolling back the date they need to resign them to second contracts.

Maybe, Cleveland would trade Garland for the #1 pick given Garland's contract and their log jam at lead guard. (Obviously, Garland wouldn't fit in Atlanta so a 3-way is needed.)

Lauri has one year left on his deal, I would not trade the #1 pick for an expiring either. No shot Kuzma, Grant/Brogdon gets even close to the #1 pick.

Obviously, any trade involving Markkanen would require an extension or at least a wink-wink agreement to a new contract.

Re: Value of the #1 pick

Posted: Thu May 30, 2024 3:37 pm
by Godaddycurse
Colbinii wrote:If I am Toronto, I think long and hard about Scottie Barnes for the #1 Pick
Lauri Markkanen
Ingram+Daniels+#17 or #21+Better of 2025 1sts
Randle+#24+#25


maybe for 2025 but not this year

Re: Value of the #1 pick

Posted: Thu May 30, 2024 3:38 pm
by nate33
Colbinii wrote:If I am Toronto, I think long and hard about Scottie Barnes for the #1 Pick
Lauri Markkanen
Ingram+Daniels+#17 or #21+Better of 2025 1sts
Randle+#24+#25

I think these are overpays for the #1. I'll trade you the #2 pick plus the #26 pick for any of those (except the NY package) without hesitation.

Re: Value of the #1 pick

Posted: Thu May 30, 2024 3:41 pm
by Colbinii
nate33 wrote:
Colbinii wrote:If I am Toronto, I think long and hard about Scottie Barnes for the #1 Pick
Lauri Markkanen
Ingram+Daniels+#17 or #21+Better of 2025 1sts
Randle+#24+#25

I think these are overpays for the #1. I'll trade you the #2 pick plus the #26 pick for any of those (except the NY package) without hesitation.


#26 doesn't move you up from #2 to #1 :lol:

Re: Value of the #1 pick

Posted: Thu May 30, 2024 3:42 pm
by Colbinii
Godaddycurse wrote:
Colbinii wrote:If I am Toronto, I think long and hard about Scottie Barnes for the #1 Pick
Lauri Markkanen
Ingram+Daniels+#17 or #21+Better of 2025 1sts
Randle+#24+#25


maybe for 2025 but not this year


Nah, I would definitely think long and hard about it If I am Toronto.

Re: Value of the #1 pick

Posted: Thu May 30, 2024 3:44 pm
by TGW
There's no way the #1 pick is worth Barnes. Get real.

Re: Value of the #1 pick

Posted: Thu May 30, 2024 3:46 pm
by nate33
Colbinii wrote:
nate33 wrote:
Colbinii wrote:If I am Toronto, I think long and hard about Scottie Barnes for the #1 Pick
Lauri Markkanen
Ingram+Daniels+#17 or #21+Better of 2025 1sts
Randle+#24+#25

I think these are overpays for the #1. I'll trade you the #2 pick plus the #26 pick for any of those (except the NY package) without hesitation.


#26 doesn't move you up from #2 to #1 :lol:

In this draft it might. There's no consensus #1. This isn't the Wemby draft. In fact, as a Washington fan, I would NOT trade #2 plus #26 for #1.

But my point was, those are all very rich offers for the #1 pick in this draft. Forget about the #2 and #26 talk. If I was running Atlanta, I would trade the #1 pick for that Barnes package, or that Markkanen package or that Ingram + Daniels package without hesitation.

Re: Value of the #1 pick

Posted: Thu May 30, 2024 3:51 pm
by Texas Chuck
I can't wrap my head around won't give up 26 to not let one of the best prospects in the draft come off the board.
Can't wrap my head around won't give up a role player for the #1 pick.

Man draft Twitter has done a number on some of you lol.

Re: Value of the #1 pick

Posted: Thu May 30, 2024 4:04 pm
by jbk1234
It's tough because the Hawks really need to upgrade the frontcourt or wing position and the top of this draft is loaded with frontcourt players. The available wings would be Ingram and Butler (I suspect PG declines to extend with the Hawks) and I just don't think any of those guys are worth No. 1.

Re: Value of the #1 pick

Posted: Thu May 30, 2024 4:24 pm
by Jadoogar
jbk1234 wrote:It's tough because the Hawks really need to upgrade the frontcourt or wing position and the top of this draft is loaded with frontcourt players. The available wings would be Ingram and Butler (I suspect PG declines to extend with the Hawks) and I just don't think any of those guys are worth No. 1.


Ingram is someone i would consider. He's really good player and could be a great #2 next to Trae Young.
Alex Sarr is primarily a defensive prospect (from my admittedly limited understanding), who was the last defensive prospect taken #1? Guys like Greg Oden, Wemby or Dwight might fit that question but those guys were obviously more dynamic offensively.

Re: Value of the #1 pick

Posted: Thu May 30, 2024 4:29 pm
by HornetJail
Mikal Bridges feels like the best bet. It's basically an admission that you're not getting a first option in this draft, but locking in the perfect 2nd/3rd option that is always available. Bargain contract right now but in line for a monster payday in two years.

Unless Brooklyn straight up hates everyone in this draft, I have to think a package deal involving #1 and Bufkin/Griffin or something like that, along with Capela's expiring flipped elsewhere for another low to mid value asset should pique their interest

Re: Value of the #1 pick

Posted: Thu May 30, 2024 4:37 pm
by babyjax13
Ingram is probably the answer.