Trade Challenge: What could Utah all-in look like?

[babyjax13]

More rumblings that Utah is looking to go "all in" (which seems pretty stupid, but Ryan Smith seems like a guy who overestimates his own abilities, so ...). What might that look like?

Assume the following guys are off-limits in a deal: Lauri Markkanen
Assume the following are "worth more to us than you": Keyonte George, Taylor Hendricks
Assume the following are available: Colin Sexton (though probably prefer to keep), Jordan Clarkson, Walker Kessler, John Collins, Omer Yurtseven, Brice Sensabaugh

Assume the following picks are available:
2024 - 10, 29, 32
2025 - two lowest of UTA/MIN/CLE
2026 - highest pick between UTA/MIN/CLE (some protections here)
2027 - two lowest of UTA/MIN/CLE/LAL (1-4 protected)
2028 - higher of UTA/CLE 1st
2029 - 2nd highest of UTA/CLE/MIN (1-4 protected)
2030 - UTA 1st
2031 - UTA 1st

[Colbinii]

Judging by the asking price Utah Jazz fans have of Walker Kessler, he should be in the Off-Limits section.

[HadAnEffectHere]

Judging by the asking price Utah Jazz fans have of Walker Kessler, he should be in the Off-Limits section.

Nah, the Jazz don't like Kessler at all and he's very available. I just think it's very stupid as he can be very good.

[babyjax13]

My guesses:

ATL: DeJounte Murray
UTA: Jordan Clarkson, Walker Kessler, Brice Sensabaugh, 10, 29

MIA: Jimmy Butler
UTA: John Collins, Keyonte George, Taylor Hendricks, 2025 1st (2nd highest of UTA/MIN/CLE), 2027 1st (3rd highest of UTA/CLE/MIN/LAL 1st (1-4 protected))

Maybe reasonable deals? The upside of the team is, IMO, pretty low:

???
Lauri
Butler
Sexton
Murray

Butler is super old, so this is probably a playoff team with a chance to make the WCF if everything breaks right and then it will quickly age back to anonymity.

[HadAnEffectHere]

The cool thing about us potentially trading Kessler is that we would trade Kessler because he doesn't fit Hardy's scheme at all, but Hardy's time is very close to running out because he's been such an awful coach so there's a good chance neither Kessler or Hardy are here in two years.

[babyjax13]

Judging by the asking price Utah Jazz fans have of Walker Kessler, he should be in the Off-Limits section.

Sue us? I don't really see where he has a crazy high valuation on here.

[babyjax13]

The cool thing about us potentially trading Kessler is that we would trade Kessler because he doesn't fit Hardy's scheme at all, but Hardy's time is very close to running out because he's been such an awful coach so there's a good chance neither Kessler or Hardy are here in two years.

I don't really understand how you can look at how we overachieved in 22-23 and the first half of this season and conclude Hardy is a bad coach.

[Colbinii]

Judging by the asking price Utah Jazz fans have of Walker Kessler, he should be in the Off-Limits section.

Sue us? I don't really see where he has a crazy high valuation on here.

I don't think he is worth a lottery pick, even in this draft

[HadAnEffectHere]

Judging by the asking price Utah Jazz fans have of Walker Kessler, he should be in the Off-Limits section.

Sue us? I don't really see where he has a crazy high valuation on here.

I don't think he is worth a lottery pick, even in this draft

List the things Donovan Clingan (guaranteed to go top 9 with significant injury concerns) does better.

[Colbinii]

The cool thing about us potentially trading Kessler is that we would trade Kessler because he doesn't fit Hardy's scheme at all, but Hardy's time is very close to running out because he's been such an awful coach so there's a good chance neither Kessler or Hardy are here in two years.

I don't really understand how you can look at how we overachieved in 22-23 and the first half of this season and conclude Hardy is a bad coach.

Objectivity isn't really Effect's basis for posting

[Colbinii]

My guesses:

ATL: DeJounte Murray
UTA: Jordan Clarkson, Walker Kessler, Brice Sensabaugh, 10, 29

MIA: Jimmy Butler
UTA: John Collins, Keyonte George, Taylor Hendricks, 2025 1st (2nd highest of UTA/MIN/CLE), 2027 1st (3rd highest of UTA/CLE/MIN/LAL 1st (1-4 protected))

Maybe reasonable deals? The upside of the team is, IMO, pretty low:

???
Lauri
Butler
Sexton
Murray

Butler is super old, so this is probably a playoff team with a chance to make the WCF if everything breaks right and then it will quickly age back to anonymity.

I would take out one of Keyonto/Hendricks for the Butler deal.

I would take out #10 or Kessler [If Atlanta goes Risacher keep in Kessler] for the Atlanta deal.

[babyjax13]

Judging by the asking price Utah Jazz fans have of Walker Kessler, he should be in the Off-Limits section.

Sue us? I don't really see where he has a crazy high valuation on here.

I don't think he is worth a lottery pick, even in this draft

I don't disagree, but I don't see asking for the 11th-14th pick as that big of an overpay for him, it could easily be balanced by us including 32 or 29. So, overvalued? Yes. Overvalued to how other fans overvalue their young players? I don't think so.

[HadAnEffectHere]

The cool thing about us potentially trading Kessler is that we would trade Kessler because he doesn't fit Hardy's scheme at all, but Hardy's time is very close to running out because he's been such an awful coach so there's a good chance neither Kessler or Hardy are here in two years.

I don't really understand how you can look at how we overachieved in 22-23 and the first half of this season and conclude Hardy is a bad coach.

Objectivity isn't really Effect's basis for posting

Objectively what happened is that many of the Jazz's players turned out to be much more talented than expected. Kessler and Sexton were viewed as stupid and Markkanen as not athletic and unable to score outside of spot-ups and all three dramatically turned that around.

Hardy's schemes are extremely bad and every time he talks about basketball, it's clear he's completely out of his depth.

1. Hardy sends four players to offensive rebound because of studies suggesting the marginal effect of sending extra guys to rebound isn't a huge deal for transition defense. But Hardy seems to not understand at all that marginal effects at not constant at various levels. The marginal effect of sending two guys instead of one to offensive rebound may be minimal, but the marginal effect of sending a fourth guy instead of a third guy is probably huge. The Jazz were constantly gashed in transition.

2. Hardy views non-shooters as not valuable and forced Walker Kessler (the worst FT shooter in the NBA) to take threes. The issue is that there's almost no good shooters at center in the NBA who are good players the Jazz can get. He wants to fit players into his scheme instead of his scheme around players on defense.

3. Hardy doesn't view defense as important, constantly benching quality defenders for horrible defenders who can shoot. Accordingly, the Jazz had the worst defense in NBA history.

Hardy is just establishing an extremely bad culture that tells young players that defense doesn't matter and this is REALLY bad in particular for Taylor Hendricks as Hendricks is a defense first player who has a very low motor and has badly hurt the confidence of Walker Kessler.

Outside of the Hornets, it's hard to think of a team with a worse culture than the Jazz right now.

[Colbinii]

Outside of the Hornets, it's hard to think of a team with a worse culture than the Jazz right now.

That has little to do with the coach and much more to do with "We have a talented team in the hunt for the playoffs and our GM is trading away our win-now players for 2027 1st Rd picks while waiving the player we acquire in the trade(s)".

[RookieJazz]

I think Hardy will be fired soon. Kessler can be traded but he has the potential to be a top 3 defensive center in the league.
I would start building the team moving Collins and Clarkson.

Collins + Clarkson for Lavine is fair and works for both teams.
Other option is to engage in a trade for Andrew Wiggins. Collins for Wiggins + 1st
Jazz team need defense, badly. I would go crazy and chase Mikal Bridges. Alternative option, if Suns implode, go after Grayson Allen.
Names that are available in the market and Jazz should chase:
Dejounte Murray,
Brandon Ingram
Austin Reaves
Wendell Carter Jr.

Trae Young is a possibility, but only if they trade for top-notch defenders for the SG and SF position.
Butler is too old. Unless the price is too cheap, no reason to get him.

[HadAnEffectHere]

Outside of the Hornets, it's hard to think of a team with a worse culture than the Jazz right now.

That has little to do with the coach and much more to do with "We have a talented team in the hunt for the playoffs and our GM is trading away our win-now players for 2027 1st Rd picks while waiving the player we acquire in the trade(s)".

While Ainge is more responsible, Hardy eagerly embraced the tank when asked to by Ainge. The Jazz ran bizarre minute totals, refused to challenge easy missed calls, ran terrible defensive schemes, intentionally went away from Markkanen in close games to lose on purpose...

[RookieJazz]

I don't really understand how you can look at how we overachieved in 22-23 and the first half of this season and conclude Hardy is a bad coach.

Objectivity isn't really Effect's basis for posting

Objectively what happened is that many of the Jazz's players turned out to be much more talented than expected. Kessler and Sexton were viewed as stupid and Markkanen as not athletic and unable to score outside of spot-ups and all three dramatically turned that around.

Hardy's schemes are extremely bad and every time he talks about basketball, it's clear he's completely out of his depth.

1. Hardy sends four players to offensive rebound because of studies suggesting the marginal effect of sending extra guys to rebound isn't a huge deal for transition defense. But Hardy seems to not understand at all that marginal effects at not constant at various levels. The marginal effect of sending two guys instead of one to offensive rebound may be minimal, but the marginal effect of sending a fourth guy instead of a third guy is probably huge. The Jazz were constantly gashed in transition.

2. Hardy views non-shooters as not valuable and forced Walker Kessler (the worst FT shooter in the NBA) to take threes. The issue is that there's almost no good shooters at center in the NBA who are good players the Jazz can get. He wants to fit players into his scheme instead of his scheme around players on defense.

3. Hardy doesn't view defense as important, constantly benching quality defenders for horrible defenders who can shoot. Accordingly, the Jazz had the worst defense in NBA history.

Hardy is just establishing an extremely bad culture that tells young players that defense doesn't matter and this is REALLY bad in particular for Taylor Hendricks as Hendricks is a defense first player who has a very low motor and has badly hurt the confidence of Walker Kessler.

Outside of the Hornets, it's hard to think of a team with a worse culture than the Jazz right now.

100% agree. Very well explained

[Texas Chuck]

Judging by the asking price Utah Jazz fans have of Walker Kessler, he should be in the Off-Limits section.

Sue us? I don't really see where he has a crazy high valuation on here.

I was told just yesterday he's worth more than pick 12. I have that as higher than he could actually return in trade. Maybe not crazy high, IDK, but probably belongs in your worth more to us than you pile at least, right?

[HadAnEffectHere]

Judging by the asking price Utah Jazz fans have of Walker Kessler, he should be in the Off-Limits section.

Sue us? I don't really see where he has a crazy high valuation on here.

I was told just yesterday he's worth more than pick 12. I have that as higher than he could actually return in trade. Maybe not crazy high, IDK, but probably belongs in your worth more to us than you pile at least, right?

I personally think he's worth pick #9 pretty easily and is more valuable than Donovan Clingan (who is very similar but has huge injury concerns and is projected top 5).

The issue is that the Jazz themselves don't value Kessler so he's probably worth more to other teams than to the Jazz. ESPECIALLY for a team with huge financial concerns that needs to win now.

I don't know if the Jazz value Hendricks at all as they didn't like him at all pre-draft and were openly pretty disappointed about having to pick him (who says that they view their draft pick as worse than every single player picked before him...), but then again, I don't know if other teams like him either...

Hendricks is so many years away that I do assume a rebuilding team would value him a lot more than a win-now Jazz team in this hypothetical.

[babyjax13]

Judging by the asking price Utah Jazz fans have of Walker Kessler, he should be in the Off-Limits section.

Sue us? I don't really see where he has a crazy high valuation on here.

I was told just yesterday he's worth more than pick 12. I have that as higher than he could actually return in trade. Maybe not crazy high, IDK, but probably belongs in your worth more to us than you pile at least, right?

I'm not changing it to accomodate other posters, it is my list and I am right, all the time