Markkanen to San Antonio, how many picks?

[HadAnEffectHere]

I was thinking the Spurs were going to avoid making moves this offseason to try to see if they can trade for Luka in 2025, but the Mavs making the Finals makes that less likely so they may change course and become more aggressive now.

The Jazz would probably be looking for #4 (and maybe moving up to #3 from there to get Reed Sheppard), the Hawks' 2025 pick, and the Hawks 2027 pick. Would the Spurs be willing to go this far or no? Would they want to give up only one of those Hawks picks?

[One_and_Done]

It's Ainge, so it never happens. Ainge will want way more than a conservative organisation like the Spurs are ever giving up.

[GoBobs]

I just don’t buy the idea Lauri is in demand. I don’t see any teams lining up to trade assets for a guy that needs a new contract and is not a slam dunk max guy.

[HadAnEffectHere]

I just don’t buy the idea Lauri is in demand. I don’t see any teams lining up to trade assets for a guy that needs a new contract and is not a slam dunk max guy.

The Knicks traded a very good prospect to give OG Anunoby a max.

Lauri Markkanen has been a +3.6 and +3.8 BPM player over the last two years and is an elite off-ball scoring PF who forces switches off-ball.

[GoBobs]

I just don’t buy the idea Lauri is in demand. I don’t see any teams lining up to trade assets for a guy that needs a new contract and is not a slam dunk max guy.

The Knicks traded a very good prospect to give OG Anunoby a max.

Lauri Markkanen has been a +3.6 and +3.8 BPM player over the last two years and is an elite off-ball scoring PF who forces switches off-ball.

Yeah, but OG plays defense, and that is easier to fit than a guy that needs the ball

Also Quickly and RJ are also on questionable contracts vs the cost controled stuff suggested in this trade

[vxmike]

The Spurs should make a move to contend sooner than later. Wemby is already good and they have tons of draft assets.

Lauri fits like a glove next to Wemby. I believe they can trade for him then renegotiate and extend with their cap space.

[HadAnEffectHere]

I just don’t buy the idea Lauri is in demand. I don’t see any teams lining up to trade assets for a guy that needs a new contract and is not a slam dunk max guy.

The Knicks traded a very good prospect to give OG Anunoby a max.

Lauri Markkanen has been a +3.6 and +3.8 BPM player over the last two years and is an elite off-ball scoring PF who forces switches off-ball.

Yeah, but OG plays defense, and that is easier to fit than a guy that needs the ball

Also Quickly and RJ are also on questionable contracts vs the cost controled stuff suggested in this trade

But the thing is that... Markkanen doesn't need the ball.

He scores by moving without the ball and getting open for 40% three point looks and dunks.

And that's really valuable as so few players in the NBA are this good scoring without the ball. It's mostly just Curry, him, and AD that can score this well without having the ball.

[mcfly1204]

If San Antonio goes down this path, wouldn't they want a legitimate PG as well?

[AingesBurner]

I would want some San Antonio picks as well and what player are we getting? If this is a cap deal then those 3 plus 3 San Antonio picks.

[babyjax13]

I would want some San Antonio picks as well and what player are we getting? If this is a cap deal then those 3 plus 3 San Antonio picks.

I can't stress how unrealistic that valuation is, even if he were locked up.

[Godaddycurse]

I would want some San Antonio picks as well and what player are we getting? If this is a cap deal then those 3 plus 3 San Antonio picks.

I can't stress how unrealistic that valuation is, even if he were locked up.

+1000.

[babyjax13]

I was thinking the Spurs were going to avoid making moves this offseason to try to see if they can trade for Luka in 2025, but the Mavs making the Finals makes that less likely so they may change course and become more aggressive now.

The Jazz would probably be looking for #4 (and maybe moving up to #3 from there to get Reed Sheppard), the Hawks' 2025 pick, and the Hawks 2027 pick. Would the Spurs be willing to go this far or no? Would they want to give up only one of those Hawks picks?

My guess is their offer is either 8 and both Atlanta picks, or 4 + 1 Atlanta pick + some other asset (maybe a San Antonio pick). I think 8 + the Atlanta picks would be a decent offer and I'd understand if we did it.

[wemby]

I was thinking the Spurs were going to avoid making moves this offseason to try to see if they can trade for Luka in 2025, but the Mavs making the Finals makes that less likely so they may change course and become more aggressive now.

The Jazz would probably be looking for #4 (and maybe moving up to #3 from there to get Reed Sheppard), the Hawks' 2025 pick, and the Hawks 2027 pick. Would the Spurs be willing to go this far or no? Would they want to give up only one of those Hawks picks?

My guess is their offer is either 8 and both Atlanta picks, or 4 + 1 Atlanta pick + some other asset (maybe a San Antonio pick). I think 8 + the Atlanta picks would be a decent offer and I'd understand if we did it.

I love Lauri, but those picks are more than you got for both Gobert and Mitchell, and Lauri is expiring... Ainge can always ask, but Spurs aren't giving up all that.

[HadAnEffectHere]

I was thinking the Spurs were going to avoid making moves this offseason to try to see if they can trade for Luka in 2025, but the Mavs making the Finals makes that less likely so they may change course and become more aggressive now.

The Jazz would probably be looking for #4 (and maybe moving up to #3 from there to get Reed Sheppard), the Hawks' 2025 pick, and the Hawks 2027 pick. Would the Spurs be willing to go this far or no? Would they want to give up only one of those Hawks picks?

My guess is their offer is either 8 and both Atlanta picks, or 4 + 1 Atlanta pick + some other asset (maybe a San Antonio pick). I think 8 + the Atlanta picks would be a decent offer and I'd understand if we did it.

This makes more sense, but I would think the Jazz would really try to move up to #3 to get Sheppard and I'm not sure if the Rockets would do #8 and #10 for Sheppard (but maybe they would, idk)

[babyjax13]

I was thinking the Spurs were going to avoid making moves this offseason to try to see if they can trade for Luka in 2025, but the Mavs making the Finals makes that less likely so they may change course and become more aggressive now.

The Jazz would probably be looking for #4 (and maybe moving up to #3 from there to get Reed Sheppard), the Hawks' 2025 pick, and the Hawks 2027 pick. Would the Spurs be willing to go this far or no? Would they want to give up only one of those Hawks picks?

My guess is their offer is either 8 and both Atlanta picks, or 4 + 1 Atlanta pick + some other asset (maybe a San Antonio pick). I think 8 + the Atlanta picks would be a decent offer and I'd understand if we did it.

I love Lauri, but those picks are more than you got for both Gobert and Mitchell, and Lauri is expiring... Ainge can always ask, but Spurs aren't giving up all that.

They absolutely are not more than we got for Gobert or Mitchell.

[wemby]

I just don’t buy the idea Lauri is in demand. I don’t see any teams lining up to trade assets for a guy that needs a new contract and is not a slam dunk max guy.

The Knicks traded a very good prospect to give OG Anunoby a max.

Lauri Markkanen has been a +3.6 and +3.8 BPM player over the last two years and is an elite off-ball scoring PF who forces switches off-ball.

What "very good prospect" are you talking about? Knicks traded away one guy who wasn't worth his contract in RJ Barrett, and another who they didn't want to pay in Quickley. Whether those players end up better than expected is another issue, that is yet to be seen. Personally I get a chuckle every time I hear Raptors fans overvalue their players,now RJ Barrett seems like a future all NBA guy because of a good couple of months. Lets wait and see how it plays out.

[wemby]

My guess is their offer is either 8 and both Atlanta picks, or 4 + 1 Atlanta pick + some other asset (maybe a San Antonio pick). I think 8 + the Atlanta picks would be a decent offer and I'd understand if we did it.

I love Lauri, but those picks are more than you got for both Gobert and Mitchell, and Lauri is expiring... Ainge can always ask, but Spurs aren't giving up all that.

They absolutely are not more than we got for Gobert or Mitchell.

Those swaps mean nothing and the picks will be in the late 20s, #4 itself may be worth more than the entirety of the picks you got from Minnesota.
The Minnesota Timberwolves today announced the team has acquired center Rudy Gobert from the Utah Jazz in exchange for guards Patrick Beverley, Malik Beasley and forward Jarred Vanderbilt, along with guard Leandro Bolmaro, the draft rights to center Walker Kessler and Minnesota’s 2023, 2025, 2027 and 2029 first round picks and a 2026 first round pick swap
Of all the players, only Kessler is worth anything, and he's a limited role player (but good at what he does).
Then it's #16 in 2023, unprotected picks in 1 and 3 years likely in the late 20s, a pick swap in 2 years that is unlikely to convey, and a pick in 5 years that may or may not be something (top 4 protected). The Gobert haul was very overrated TBH.

[Godaddycurse]

I love Lauri, but those picks are more than you got for both Gobert and Mitchell, and Lauri is expiring... Ainge can always ask, but Spurs aren't giving up all that.

They absolutely are not more than we got for Gobert or Mitchell.

Those swaps mean nothing and the picks will be in the late 20s, #4 itself may be worth more than the entirety of the picks you got from Minnesota.

eh in this draft i think most if not all other teams would prefer 3 future picks + keyonte george over #4

[wemby]

They absolutely are not more than we got for Gobert or Mitchell.

Those swaps mean nothing and the picks will be in the late 20s, #4 itself may be worth more than the entirety of the picks you got from Minnesota.

eh in this draft i think most if not all other teams would prefer 3 future picks + keyonte george over #4

Perhaps, perhaps not. But it's debatable, and that's my point. All of the Minnesota picks aren't much more than a single pick here. There is no comparison, pretending there have to be x many picks just because there were in some past trade without considering the prospects of those picks is disingeuous,

[babyjax13]

Those swaps mean nothing and the picks will be in the late 20s, #4 itself may be worth more than the entirety of the picks you got from Minnesota.

eh in this draft i think most if not all other teams would prefer 3 future picks + keyonte george over #4

Perhaps, perhaps not. But it's debatable, and that's my point. All of the Minnesota picks aren't much more than a single pick here. There is no comparison, pretending there have to be x many picks just because there were in some past trade without considering the prospects of those picks is disingeuous,

The first thing I will say is that you can only judge the deal at the time. I don't think people saw Minnesota as an appreciably better situation than Atlanta when they traded for Gobert. Most people thought Rudy was overrated (wrong), that Minnesota had committed all their assets to getting him (mostly correct) and that the upside of a team with Rudy + KAT was really low (wrong). But that trade was more than the picks and there were a ton of them coming from a team that - outside of Edwards - would be aging out on the backend (those 2027-2029 picks).

Utah trades: Rudy Gobert
Minnesota trades: Malik Beasley, Leandro Bolmaro, Patrick Beverley, Jarred Vanderbilt, Walker Kessler, 2023 MIN 1st, 2025 MIN 1st, 2026 pick swap option, 2027 MIN 1st, 2028 pick swap option, 2029 MIN 1st (1-4 protected)

Then you have the follow-up:

Mike Conley + Jarred Vanderbilt + Malik Beasley + Nickeil Alexander-Walker + 2025 & 2026 UTA 2nd for Russell Westbrook (released) + 2027 LAL 1st (1-4 protected)
Conley certainly was not worth that pick loosely protected, so part of the value is in the Minnesota guys (specifically, Vanderbilt) and the 2nds. It's hard to attribute exactly what value Conley/Vanderbilt/NAW all contributed, but I don't think it is fair to call that nothing.

From Minnesota we essentially received five first round picks as Kessler had just been selected + players that facilitated other deals.

My assertion was also that Lauri would return EITHER 4 + 1 ATL 1st + 1 other asset, or 8 + both ATL 1sts. I have:

Kessler + 2023 MIN 1st >> 8 (frankly I have that as more value than the 4th pick in this draft, too)
2025 MIN 1st + 2027 MIN 1st + 2026 MIN swap >= 2025 ATL 1st
2029 MIN 1st + 2028 swap option > 2027 ATL 1st

+ the additional value that contributed to the 2027 LAL 1st that is loosely protected.

Now, if you want to say "San Antonio wouldn't do that for an expiring player" I think that is pretty reasonable, but the deal for Gobert was widely thought at the time to be absolutely asinine - I know because I was one of the only people who thought it was fair value and there was a tongue-in-cheek joke going around about me saying "5 1sts for Gobert" and then that being his actual value (which I got a chuckle about, still felt I was right, was proven that was the market, and now it appears to have been worth it).

If push comes to shove there are probably some ways to balance this one way or the other if both teams were interested in the foundation of this (e.g., turn one of the picks into the lower of SAS/ATL 1sts, or have Utah include pick 29, or turn something into a swap where Utah sends back one of its 3 2025 or 2027 1sts), but I think this value is about right for Utah to move off a player they can renegotiate and extend, and I don't think - so long as Lauri would resign with a team - that they would regret making the move.