Wizards/Pacers

[Astaluego]

Talking with a good Pacers fan, in another thread, an idea arose, which I would like to share...
Since I think it is interesting for both teams and I would like the help of the board, to determine how the trade would be closed..

.WIZARDS
In:Mathurin

Probably taking Risacher in the draft who is a similar mold Avdija, gets a two-way scorer even on a rookie contract



PACERS
In: Avdija

Avdija fits like a glove, like the perfect type of glue, he gives them size, good defense and rebounds, while still being young and locked in...

Hali/Nesmith/Avdija/Siakam/Turner
TJ/Nembhard/Sharpe/*Toppin/I.Jackson


Thought?who should add what?

[Colbinii]

Risacher isnt actually that similar to Deni, and it doesn't mean they should trade him for a scoring guard who has limited upside in Mathurin.

[nate33]

No.

Guys, Avdija is not on the market. He is the most valuable non-rookie non-max contract in the league. He averaged 19, 9 and 4 with a .600 TS% over the second-half of the season with elite defense and can seamlessly guard 1 through 4. He just turned 23 and is still improving. Rebuilding teams simply don't trade guys like that. It's not happening.

[Scoot McGroot]

Oh. Yeah. I think Indy would want the 26 along with Avdija to give up Mathurin. That was what I was suggesting.

No.

Guys, Avdija is not on the market. He is the most valuable non-rookie non-max contract in the league. He averaged 19, 9 and 4 with a .600 TS% over the second-half of the season with elite defense and can seamlessly guard 1 through 4. He just turned 23 and is still improving. Rebuilding teams simply don't trade guys like that. It's not happening.

I wouldn’t call this “on the market”. I would suggest this as Washington using Avdija to get a top notch SG prospect that could explode in a Jimmy Butler/Kawhi Leonard type fashion, though as more of a scorer, and more of a 2 than 3, and never a 4. Like, I saw this as Washington taking a chance on a guy that could potentially be a star. Not an insult. A compliment in terms of acquirable talent for Avdija.

[Texas Chuck]

I like the basis of this for both. Problem is we have both sides thinking they are due incentive and so I'll upset both by saying they should do this even if they don't get any.

[TGW]

Mathirin is nothing special IMO. Definitely not trading Deni for him.

[penbeast0]

Avdija has showed he would be a solid starter on a championship team with his defense and versatility and has 3 years left on a bargain contract. Mathurin has been in the league two years with 2 years left on his rookie deal and showed he is a slightly below average efficiency 2 with good usage. He did improve his 3 point % but at a cost of his foul draw to actually be slightly less effective than he was as a rookie. That's reasonably valuable but not in the same value range unless Mathurin has (like Deni) has shown strong defensive chops. As I haven't heard that about Mathurin, even from Pacers fans, I don't buy this.

AS usual with these Avdija deals that value him as a project or a role player, Washington fans don't agree.

[Texas Chuck]

Deni has shot well(on low volume) for one year. If that isn't who he is now, he's not at all established himself as a solid starter on a championship level team. Something I know would be pointed out if he was being traded to Washington.

I know I'm constantly acting as the skeptic, but we are projecting a ton on not a big sample size. And we saw Mikal get the superstar valuation based on a similar sample only to come back to earth and yet I'd still have him valued quite a bit more than Deni even with less time under contract.

[Scoot McGroot]

Avdija has showed he would be a solid starter on a championship team with his defense and versatility and has 3 years left on a bargain contract. Mathurin has been in the league two years with 2 years left on his rookie deal and showed he is a slightly below average efficiency 2 with good usage. He did improve his 3 point % but at a cost of his foul draw to actually be slightly less effective than he was as a rookie. That's reasonably valuable but not in the same value range unless Mathurin has (like Deni) has shown strong defensive chops. As I haven't heard that about Mathurin, even from Pacers fans, I don't buy this.

AS usual with these Avdija deals that value him as a project or a role player, Washington fans don't agree.

It’s wild you think that. Here he’s valued as relatively equal to a blue chip type prospect with great projections, but just on a team with different needs. If that’s an insult, I’m not sure what you think Avdija is worth. Like, as an Indy fan, I view Mathurin as a centerpiece to a Mikal Bridges trade type value. That’s pretty respectful of Avdija, no?

[penbeast0]

(a) Avdija's defense is stronger than his offense. Currently, he's a solid but not spectacular offensive player who took a step forward in his 3rd year and another one forward in the 2nd half of that year as he (and the team) gained confidence in his abilities. He does have good playmaking skills for a 4, average for a 3, with the size of a 4. But he's been an excellent defender from the time he made the normal rookie adjustments to the NBA. That's his calling card so far.

(b) My valuation of Mathurin may be what is off. He's seen as a potential scorer but while I see that he can get his shots, he has not, to date, been above league average in effectiveness. His ts% dropped in his second year with defenses taking away his drives to the basket and ability to get to the line. Both his 3pt% and his 2pt% went up (both good signs) but his ts% went down as he went from an outstanding 9.7fta/100 possessions to a more pedestrian 6.0 leading to that drop. And his defense has frequently been poor, both at point of attack and in help defense, despite his physical tools. I think he's well worth seeing if he, like Avdija, makes a 3rd year leap to a strong starter status, but he isn't there yet.

I can't see this as good until Mathurin either steps up his efficiency or his defense. Being clearly above league average in one or the other would put him in a different category to me.

[BrianInPhilly]

Both teams wouldn't do this. It's an interesting trade but rarely does a team trade a young guy like Mathurin unless they're selling high. Coming off an injury, teams would expect the worse if he's suddenly on the market. Neither Haliburton or Siakam are proven to be 1A offensive guys yet - Mathurin isn't either but they all have potential to be 1B or strong #2 scoring options; having 3 or maybe 4 if Nembhard blows up more would help a lot. I'd still roll with Mathurin.

[Colbinii]

So the irony here is Indiana traded a win-now piece for a blue-chipper in Sabonis/Haliburton and now they are in a position to do the inverse.

Yeah, I like the idea of Mathurin+Walker+Filler for a 3rd star. What is that 3rd star? And more importantly, it needs to be a 3rd star who fits the philosophy of Indiana.

AD is the absolute perfect player here, but I doubt he is available. Is Towns something they would want to acquire? I'm sure Carlisle loves that idea.

[Solid]

Mathurin PLUS Walker AND filler ?
There's such a small handful of forwards worth that package, and we already have two max players.
Not happening. One of them, or Nembhard...with filler.
I think we can take our time. Especially if Nembhard extends.

[Wizop]

I'm not buying the notion that Mathurin was worse in his second year despite statistics. I think he took a step forward in learning how to be a member of a team that shares the ball.

[nate33]

(b) My valuation of Mathurin may be what is off. He's seen as a potential scorer but while I see that he can get his shots, he has not, to date, been above league average in effectiveness. His ts% dropped in his second year with defenses taking away his drives to the basket and ability to get to the line. Both his 3pt% and his 2pt% went up (both good signs) but his ts% went down as he went from an outstanding 9.7fta/100 possessions to a more pedestrian 6.0 leading to that drop. And his defense has frequently been poor, both at point of attack and in help defense, despite his physical tools. I think he's well worth seeing if he, like Avdija, makes a 3rd year leap to a strong starter status, but he isn't there yet.

Agreed. Mathurin is still quite young so I don't want to be too harsh with him, but so far all he is is a gunner with mediocre efficiency who is kinda bad at other aspects of the game. He barely has more assists than turnovers and he is a poor defender. He has a significantly negative OBPM, DBPM, VORP and on/off differential in each of his first two seasons. A bet on him is a bet on his improvement going forward because the guy isn't helping you win right now and it's not a sure thing he'll turn the corner.

Deni on the other hand is a total stat stuffer across the box score and has consistently posted significantly positive on/off differentials and respectable BPM's for 3 years now.

And finally, Deni is locked into a cheap deal for 4 more years. Even if Mathurin improves so that he is a quality starting guard, he'll also get that much more expensive on his new contract.

[Helsbyte]

I get most people look at Mathurin's stats this year and think he regressed, but this not correct. He was asked to change his style(ISO) to accommodate Indy's style of play. He is just a bad fit next to Haliburton and in Indy's offense as a secondary ballhandler. He is however the best player on Indy's roster at creating his own shot. His rookie year we saw more of this as he constantly got to the free throw line by getting to the front of the rim. This year he was asked to space more and as a result his FT rate fell as did his efficiency. His ceiling is probably a 2nd option on a contender. He is also a workaholic in the gym with the mental toughness to get better.

As far as this trade idea goes I like it for both sides( Washington might need to add). Washington raises their ceiling by letting Mathurin and Couliby cook(like Shai in OKC)for a year or 2 while they continue their rebuild and Indy adds a 3&D wing they need.

[Wizop]

A bet on him is a bet on his improvement going forward because the guy isn't helping you win right now and it's not a sure thing he'll turn the corner.

I'm not sure how the season ended, but well into it we were undefeated when he scored 15 or more. I call that helping us win,

[Wizop]

He is just a bad fit next to Haliburton

and a good fit next to McConnell.

[nate33]

A bet on him is a bet on his improvement going forward because the guy isn't helping you win right now and it's not a sure thing he'll turn the corner.

I'm not sure how the season ended, but well into it we were undefeated when he scored 15 or more. I call that helping us win,

So what? If I guy is streaky and you win when the shots fall and you lose when they don't, that doesn't mean the guy is helping you win. If anything, it suggests that the other players on the Pacers are consistent such that their fate is tied to the frustrating ups and downs of one streaky player.

[Scoot McGroot]

And finally, Deni is locked into a cheap deal for 4 more years. Even if Mathurin improves so that he is a quality starting guard, he'll also get that much more expensive on his new contract.

And Mathurin is on an even cheaper rookie contract for 2 of those 4 cheap years. The first two years of Mathurin’s next deal could combine for $38.5m total and he and Avdija will have made the exact same money for the next 4 years.