SAS allin now ! get Markkanen/Avdija/Jones/Olynyk

[Kineto]

Sorry for the long essay, but I got caught up in the game ^^.

I wasn't too convinced by the latest news from Jonathan Givony that Spurs were going to try to push for the play-offs next season, but after exploring a few scenarios, I think it actually makes sense, and I'm going to try to illustrate that with a fictional scenario that I think is fairly realistic.

(The proposed trades and signings are in my opinion quite unfavourable to SAS and can be adjusted, but this is just to illustrate the feasibility of the plan).

2024 inter-season plan:
Spurs waive their rights to Bassey ($0 guaranteed) and Graham ($2.85M guaranteed)

TRADE 1:
WAS OUT : Deni Avdija
WAS IN : Zach Collins + pick #8

TRADE 2 :
TOR OUT: Kelly Olynyk + IND 26 1st pick
TOR IN : Jeremy Sochan
UTAH OUT : Lauri Markkanen
UTAH IN : Keldon Jonhson + pick #4 + IND 26 1st + CHI 25 1st + least(ATL 25 1st - SAS 25 1st) + SAS 27 1st (prot top 10) + CHA 25 1st (equivalent to two 2nd probably)

That leaves the Spurs with around $25m in salary cap and the $8m from the room exception, plus their two second-round drafts pick and the veteran minimums to fill the roster.

Sign Tyues Jones for $65m over 3 seasons, with a team option in the final season.

Rely on Wemby during the Olympics to convince Nico Batum and Evan Fournier to sign 2-year contracts (Player Option) using the room exception and what's left of the salary cap.

Roster 2024-2025 :
Wemby - Olynyk - 2nd/vet
Markkanen - Olynyk/Batum - Cissoko
Avdija - Batum - Champagnie - 2nd
Vassel - Fournier - Branham
Tyus Jones - Tre Jones - Wesley

This roster seems well-suited for playing with Victor (all starter are plus 3 pt shooter), and if wemby continue to improve, seems very capable of playing in the play-offs for the next two seasons, even in the West.

And San Antonio hasn't sacrificed all its assets, far from it, as it still has 1 first-round draft pick each season (including all the Atlanta picks) and between 2 and 4 second-round picks each season for the next 6 seasons:

2025 - best(SAS 1st - ATL 1st) + three 2nd
2026 - best (SAS 1st - ATL 1st) + four 2nd
2027 : ATL 1st + two 2nd
2028 : best(SAS 1st - BOS 1st) + four 2nd
2029: SAS 1st + three 2nd
2030 : best(SAS 1st - DAL 1st) + two 2nd.

So we've got a competitive roster, and we've still got a lot of assets to improve it, but I'm not sure we're good enough to really compete for the title at this point. (and that's why I was sceptical about the Givony interview)

But when I really found this scenario interesting and I began to be a little more convinced that it was the right thing to do, was when I tried to project myself onto the 2026-2027 season:


Obviously, Markkanen will have had to be extended to the maximum (30% salary cap, $182m over 4 years).
But with Vassel and Avdija's salaries on the decline, and Victor still in the final year of his rookie contract, it's possible for SAS to find themselves in the 2026 off-season with only Vassel, Markkanen, Avdija and Victor under contract, and around $55m in salary cap space to attract a new player at max contract before extending Victor to super max in 2027 !

And 2026 is the year Doncic will be a free agent !!!

And those 4 players plus Luca f****g Doncic... did you say dinasty !?

[QMemphis]

Sorry for the long essay, but I got caught up in the game ^^.

I wasn't too convinced by the latest news from Jonathan Givony that Spurs were going to try to push for the play-offs next season, but after exploring a few scenarios, I think it actually makes sense, and I'm going to try to illustrate that with a fictional scenario that I think is fairly realistic.

(The proposed trades and signings are in my opinion quite unfavourable to SAS and can be adjusted, but this is just to illustrate the feasibility of the plan).

2024 inter-season plan:
Spurs waive their rights to Bassey ($0 guaranteed) and Graham ($2.85M guaranteed)

TRADE 1:
WAS OUT : Deni Avdija
WAS IN : Zach Collins + pick #8

TRADE 2 :
TOR OUT: Kelly Olynyk + IND 26 1st pick
TOR IN : Jeremy Sochan
UTAH OUT : Lauri Markkanen
UTAH IN : Keldon Jonhson + pick #4 + IND 26 1st + CHI 25 1st + least(ATL 25 1st - SAS 25 1st) + SAS 27 1st (prot top 10) + CHA 25 1st (equivalent to two 2nd probably)

That leaves the Spurs with around $25m in salary cap and the $8m from the room exception, plus their two second-round drafts pick and the veteran minimums to fill the roster.

Sign Tyues Jones for $65m over 3 seasons, with a team option in the final season.

Rely on Wemby during the Olympics to convince Nico Batum and Evan Fournier to sign 2-year contracts (Player Option) using the room exception and what's left of the salary cap.

Roster 2024-2025 :
Wemby - Olynyk - 2nd/vet
Markkanen - Olynyk/Batum - Cissoko
Avdija - Batum - Champagnie - 2nd
Vassel - Fournier - Branham
Tyus Jones - Tre Jones - Wesley

This roster seems well-suited for playing with Victor (all starter are plus 3 pt shooter), and if wemby continue to improve, seems very capable of playing in the play-offs for the next two seasons, even in the West.

And San Antonio hasn't sacrificed all its assets, far from it, as it still has 1 first-round draft pick each season (including all the Atlanta picks) and between 2 and 4 second-round picks each season for the next 6 seasons:

2025 - best(SAS 1st - ATL 1st) + three 2nd
2026 - best (SAS 1st - ATL 1st) + four 2nd
2027 : ATL 1st + two 2nd
2028 : best(SAS 1st - BOS 1st) + four 2nd
2029: SAS 1st + three 2nd
2030 : best(SAS 1st - DAL 1st) + two 2nd.

So we've got a competitive roster, and we've still got a lot of assets to improve it, but I'm not sure we're good enough to really compete for the title at this point. (and that's why I was sceptical about the Givony interview)

But when I really found this scenario interesting and I began to be a little more convinced that it was the right thing to do, was when I tried to project myself onto the 2026-2027 season:


Obviously, Markkanen will have had to be extended to the maximum (30% salary cap, $182m over 4 years).
But with Vassel and Avdija's salaries on the decline, and Victor still in the final year of his rookie contract, it's possible for SAS to find themselves in the 2026 off-season with only Vassel, Markkanen, Avdija and Victor under contract, and around $55m in salary cap space to attract a new player at max contract before extending Victor to super max in 2027 !

And 2026 is the year Doncic will be a free agent !!!

And those 4 players plus Luca f****g Doncic... did you say dinasty !?

Grizz and Thunder can send better offers for Deni.

[Godaddycurse]

Please include why toronto/washington/utah would make those trades.

Sochan is a terrible fit with Barnes so i wouldnt be interested in him

[penbeast0]

Maybe Kyle Kuzma for Zach Collins and #8, not Avdija. Gives you another scoring/playmaking forward whose defense tends to improve when he isn't shouldering so much offensive responsibility. Or send the Markannen deal for Avdija and the Avdija deal for Kuzma and have them both. You can be last year's Wizards with Wemby (league's best young player) instead of Jordan Poole (league's worst).

[Devilanche]

No way kuzma gets #8 even in this draft.

[Kizz Fastfists]

This makes no sense for Washington, Toronto or the Spurs. You think the Spurs are going to gamble on the .001% chance they can sign Luka? I have much more respect for their front office to think they would do something so reckless just to end up as a playoff team with no chance to win a title. The Spurs build championships through their drafting not through gambling on FAs they have no realistic shot at.

[jbk1234]

I have the Wizards passing.

Not sure about the Raptors. Part of me thinks Sochan could be re-routed to a third team for a better piece but I don't know how he's viewed around the NBA.

If Lauri agrees to restructure his contract, the Jazz say no. If he declines, they might say yes but fight about the protections on the Spurs pick.

I just don't think the Spurs have the ability to go *all in* if they take Vassell off the table.

[TGW]

Easy no for the Wizards. Back to the drawing board with this one.

[Chinook]

Why does "going all-in" never mean acquiring vet stars with proven championship experience? Why does it always mean paying a premium for 20-somethings who struggle to get their teams in the playoffs? This isn't a trivial distinction. There's an obsession with the idea that if all your stars are young, you'll get 10 years of elite talent. But players can only be planned for by their years of team control.

If you want to go all in, find out how to sign PG and trade for Curry, not chase after guys like Young, Garland and Mark who are going to be making nearly as much to be lesser players. If you're concerned about the next 8 to 10 years, draft guys and focus on building a sustainable team. Max guys aren't going to cut it.

[babyjax13]

Utah also says no. Probably a fair offer in a vacuum, but a lot of those picks are pretty bad and the 4th pick in this draft is very...meh. send us both of the Atlanta picks and 8, and maybe we send something back, as well.

[Kizz Fastfists]

Why does "going all-in" never mean acquiring vet stars with proven championship experience? Why does it always mean paying a premium for 20-somethings who struggle to get their teams in the playoffs? This isn't a trivial distinction. There's an obsession with the idea that if all your stars are young, you'll get 10 years of elite talent. But players can only be planned for by their years of team control.

If you want to go all in, find out how to sign PG and trade for Curry, not chase after guys like Young, Garland and Mark who are going to be making nearly as much to be lesser players. If you're concerned about the next 8 to 10 years, draft guys and focus on building a sustainable team. Max guys aren't going to cut it.

In the case of the Spurs, you are correct. They only player they currently have that we know is going to be good enough to be a key player on a championship team is Wemby. A team like OKC, even last year, could have added Lauri and considered it going all-in because they had the other pieces in place. The Spurs are not going to give away their draft picks for 2nd rate star players, like Lauri, Trae, etc. They will continue to draft and build until they are ready to make the big push for a championship then they might add a player via trade of that caliber. The Spurs are an organization that builds for championships not the playoffs. I don't follow every GM's press conferences, but of the ones I have seen the only GM in the entire NBA, or any other sport, that ever talks like making the playoffs is the end goal and winning a championship is just luck and not a measurement of success is Sam Presti.

[Kineto]

Grizz and Thunder can send better offers for Deni.

What is the "consensual" value of Deni's curently ?

Spurs have a bazillion of second pick to ease the deal (and some other young player eventualy if WIZ have some interest with branham, wesley or cissoko)

[Kineto]

Please include why toronto/washington/utah would make those trades.

Sochan is a terrible fit with Barnes so i wouldnt be interested in him

For WAS, the aim is to make the most of an asset that is less valuable to them (a team in tank mode) than to a team looking to perform.
I don't think Deni can be a potential all-star, but he's probably the perfect 4th/5th option for a play-off team, and with his salary/performance ratio is much more interesting for a team looking to optimise its performance (which the WIZ won't be doing for probably 2 or 3 seasons).
Keeping Deni is probably a waste for the WIZ, and they have every interest in getting assets in exchange.

For Toronto, the fit may not be great, but like the WIZ, they're probably in the running for Cooper Flag, and the opportunity to get a lottery pick still on his rookie contract for a veteran with 2 years of salary left and a late 1st pick seemed OK for me.
We'll have to see how Sochan is rated, but he is improving and he fits the archetype of the big, versatile (and average 3-pointer ^^) that TOR seems to love.

[Kineto]

This makes no sense for Washington, Toronto or the Spurs. You think the Spurs are going to gamble on the .001% chance they can sign Luka? I have much more respect for their front office to think they would do something so reckless just to end up as a playoff team with no chance to win a title. The Spurs build championships through their drafting not through gambling on FAs they have no realistic shot at.

Getting Luka in 2026 is the best case scenario (and you have to take risks to win in the NBA anyway).

But the ‘real’ plan and the ‘real’ all-in is precisely in 2026, and it will work even if Doncic stays in Dallas.

The 2026 situation means 4 very good, complementary players, all under 30, and a $55m salary cap to spend on a star.
(Star or border line star available in 2026 : Fox ; Young ; Bridges ; Curry ; Adebayo ...)

Even if no interesting star is available in 2026 on the free agent market, with $55m under the cap and all the draft picks left, they'll be in a very good position to make a move on a star under contract in the same way that Minnesota did on Gobert or Cleveland on Mitchel.

[Kizz Fastfists]

Grizz and Thunder can send better offers for Deni.

What is the "consensual" value of Deni's curently ?

Spurs have a bazillion of second pick to ease the deal (and some other young player eventualy if WIZ have some interest with branham, wesley or cissoko)

What is the motivation for Washington to trade a 23 year old that has already proven they are a quality NBA player and is on an insanely team friendly contract? They are rebuilding so a win now piece doesn't matter. You have to convince them that what they are getting presents more upside than an efficient 23 year old that plays very good defense. Tossing a bunch of 2nd round picks does nothing. A bunch of lower ceiling young players does nothing. Make the argument that something they get will outproduce Deni and improve their chance of long-term success.

That is easy to do with Kuzma, who is 29. It is almost impossible to do with Deni. OKC should be willing to give the Miami, Philly and Denver picks they own in addition to their best FRP in 2025 for Deni. Washington should reject that, because none of those picks are likely to yield as good a player as Deni. You do not win championships with a collection of picks in the 20s. You win championships with star players and high end role players. Deni is already a high end role player and could become a star. At worst he is a high end role player that doesn't prevent you from signing a max player in three years when your top 5 picks have developed and you are a playoff team and need a push to get from playoff team to contender. The fact that several Deni trades have come up for various teams over the last few weeks here is proof alone that he has value and there should be a bidding war if Washington is dumb enough to trade him.

[Kineto]

Why does "going all-in" never mean acquiring vet stars with proven championship experience? Why does it always mean paying a premium for 20-somethings who struggle to get their teams in the playoffs? This isn't a trivial distinction. There's an obsession with the idea that if all your stars are young, you'll get 10 years of elite talent. But players can only be planned for by their years of team control.

If you want to go all in, find out how to sign PG and trade for Curry, not chase after guys like Young, Garland and Mark who are going to be making nearly as much to be lesser players. If you're concerned about the next 8 to 10 years, draft guys and focus on building a sustainable team. Max guys aren't going to cut it.

For me, this philosophy is very similar to what Phoenix has done...

And I'll say it again: for me, the ‘real’ all-in is in 2026, when it will potentially be possible to get that famous ‘real’ undisputed star (in my ideal scenario, Doncic).

[Godaddycurse]

he fits the archetype of the big, versatile (and average 3-pointer ^^) that TOR seems to love.

sochan is nowhere near average in 3 pt shooting

[Gert42]

Would you trade Devin Vassell for #2 this year? If not you probably could see why the Wizards would not trade their 23 year old for the #8 pick.

At the end of the day the most attractive picks are the Atlanta unprotected picks, I don't think any of these deals get done without one of them involved.

[One_and_Done]

Spurs are never doing this. They can try to make the playoffs next year with only minor improvements.

[patman66]

Maybe Kyle Kuzma for Zach Collins and #8, not Avdija. Gives you another scoring/playmaking forward whose defense tends to improve when he isn't shouldering so much offensive responsibility. Or send the Markannen deal for Avdija and the Avdija deal for Kuzma and have them both. You can be last year's Wizards with Wemby (league's best young player) instead of Jordan Poole (league's worst).

Maybe Kuzma for * and Zach collins? What would be the concern on the Wiz part that warrants a "maybe"?