RealGM

Note: this is the kind of deal I expect Chicago to make, not what I would chose as them.

Chicago trades: Ball, #11
Chicago gets: Brogdon, #14, #34, 25 TOR 2nd

Portland trades: Brogdon, #14, #34
Portland gets: THJ/Powell/#11/28 MIA 2nd

Dallas trades: THJ/Powell/25 TOR 2nd/28 POR 2nd
Dallas gets Ball

Chicago gets a quality guard for moving back 3 spots in the lottery but also pick up a high 2nd this year and next.

Portland uses Brogdon to move up in the lottery and pick up a future 2nd for taking on Powell's money for next year.

Dallas takes a gamble on Ball. Probably won't be healthy and Dallas will just have to use him as the matching salary at the deadline, but were he to get healthy, he'd be a sneaky good addition as a legit 3rd guard and one who could share the court at times with both others.

This assigns value to Ball, which I'm dubious he has? Bulls are upgrading while getting rid of a negative asset, all at the cost of moving down 3 spots. They also get 2 seconds to show for it.

The Blazers part is fine, I guess. I highly doubt there will be someone at 11 that the Blazers covet that won't be there at 14, but I could be wrong. If that player is there, then sure I guess this makes sense. I don't think they need to included 34, but we're quibbling on value here.

This feels like overvaluing Ball. #11 for #14 + #34 + future 2nd seems pretty equal. So is Ball = Brogdon?? Really?? Both are EC's and Brogdon's far more likely to get on the court (and he's pretty good).

giberish wrote:This feels like overvaluing Ball. #11 for #14 + #34 + future 2nd seems pretty equal. So is Ball = Brogdon?? Really?? Both are EC's and Brogdon's far more likely to get on the court (and he's pretty good).

i think 11 > 14 + 34 + future 2nd by another 2-3 2nds.

pick 10 is roughly 15 + 20
so pick 11 would be roughly pick 14 + pick 24 or so, which 34 + future 2nd woudln't make up for

i dont like the direction dallas is going here though.

Oh Dallas is absolutely "overpaying" for Ball here. It's a gamble, but with a meaningful payoff if he can play even if its only 20 mpg and they only get 30 regular season games if they can get some playoff games too.

So what's the Bulls' plan? Go for the play in again or does Brogdan get the run it back roster to the playoffs? It's a net gain at guard because they aren't counting on Lonzo. They're adding a 32 year old guard with an expiring contract, this happens before they move Lavine, Caruso or DeRozan so how much does Brogdan play until they move how many of those three? Does Dosunmu get pushed back to the end of the bench? Do you stunt his growth and then resign a 33 year old Brogdan? Or are they going with AC as a PF again backed up by Javonte Green? Carter is still around, Dalen Terry might as well pack his bags.

I'm not the one that's going to trade Lonzo Ball like a gift card. I've gambled this long with him one more year doesn't matter. I can see the logic in trading him in order to fill the still big hole at PF or for a replacement for Vucevic at the 5. But to add another healthy guard to the overcrowded back court, can't see using any asset for that.

Works for me. Portland would need to immediately try to move pieces to get the roster to a legal amount of players.

Myth wrote:Works for me. Portland would need to immediately try to move pieces to get the roster to a legal amount of players.

THJ might shave off a few million in a buy out because I assume he can probably still get a one year TMLE type deal somewhere and I can't imagine Portland cares about having him on the roster.? Not promising that of course, but maybe?

Texas Chuck wrote:Oh Dallas is absolutely "overpaying" for Ball here. It's a gamble, but with a meaningful payoff if he can play even if its only 20 mpg and they only get 30 regular season games if they can get some playoff games too.

Given the deal is valuing Brogdon and Ball essentially equally, why doesn't Dallas just try for Brogdon? Seems like a far better bet to be a high-quality 3rd guard.

giberish wrote:

Texas Chuck wrote:Oh Dallas is absolutely "overpaying" for Ball here. It's a gamble, but with a meaningful payoff if he can play even if its only 20 mpg and they only get 30 regular season games if they can get some playoff games too.

Given the deal is valuing Brogdon and Ball essentially equally, why doesn't Dallas just try for Brogdon? Seems like a far better bet to be a high-quality 3rd guard.

I don't think Dallas offering 2 2nds is enough for Portland to swap Brogdon for THJ/Powell. If it is, I'd gladly do it. I have 11 as worth more than 14/34. So I'm not valuing the 2 players the same.

Portland made the simplest trade a few years ago of #15 and #20 for #10. I think 14 + Brogdon for 11 is probably close to that (#14 being higher, but Brogdon being somewhere around a late 1st). I think the value is fine for Portland, the money tied up in the players is pretty much dead money as they'd likely need waived to make roster spaces for the rookies barring other trades.

I don't see Dallas doing it for Lonzo though. That seems like a huge gamble for potentially dead money. I like Dallas' chances next year if they can add just a bit more talent, they're in their window. I'd rather see them use THJs contract for a better known quantity and maybe throw in '25 pick, though I don't think they can do that until after the draft.

I think for portland, I might just cut out Dallas and keep ball. Obviously a huge if on him being healthy, but if he was, and we could also move simons, I like him alongside both Scoot and Sharpe in the backcourt. Best, best ,best case scenario, he's healthy and he's our 6th man for a spell. Best case scenario, he stays healthy, and we flip him at the deadline for the same offer here of expiring and a 2nd or 2. Worst case, he's not healthy, and he expires, we still have the move up from 14 to 11.

I'm sure THJ would likely skim some money off in a buyout, and at 4 million, Powell maybe doesn’t pick up the option next year? But unless we can find an immediate flip for THJ which, (I think he's looked at too negatively on here personally,) should be doable, absent of the immediate flip, I like the low risk medium reward chance on ball instead.

Wabt to get payed to take that huge gamble. And payed good

Apz wrote:Wabt to get payed to take that huge gamble. And payed good

If you think Dallas can get paid to swap THJ/Powell for Lonzo Ball I don't know what to tell you except well you cannot.

I don't see much reason for Dallas to be in this trade

take out the 2nd round picks (unless Chicago returns Portland's 1st, which they are unlikely to collect anyway) and make it a simple Brogdon + 14 for Ball + 11

that said, I'm not sure what the Blazers would do with 3 lottery picks in this draft

Wizenheimer wrote:I don't see much reason for Dallas to be in this trade

take out the 2nd round picks (unless Chicago returns Portland's 1st, which they are unlikely to collect anyway) and make it a simple Brogdon + 14 for Ball + 11

that said, I'm not sure what the Blazers would do with 3 lottery picks in this draft

Can definitely take Dallas out and makes it cleaner. And cleaner is better.

But I have Portland still owing value which the inclusion of Dallas helped Portland with. I think Chicago is due more value. If the Blazers instead offer less value.... And asking Chicago to give Portland their 1st back only further compounds that. Now the value is really tilted towards Portland.

Of course I could be off on the value.

Yeah, 0 interest in gambling assets and salary slots for a guy that hasn't played in 2.5 years, that's before discussing the hard capping at 1s Apron.