TOO EARLY: Predict the tanking order for 2025

[MessiahUjiri]

Alright, this is probably too early, but it feels like there a bunch of teams evaluating trades to sell guys and will likely embrace the tank for 2025.


What’s your prediction for the tanking order? Who’s the X factor team to watch in the tank race?


Here’s mine:

1. Washington
2. Brooklyn
3. Portland
4. Detroit
5. Chicago
6. Utah
7. Toronto
8. Charlotte
9. Spurs
10. Hawks


I think the Spurs and Hawks are X factors.

If Wemby becomes All NBA level good, they’re a potential playoff team, especially with a real PG in Chris Paul.

If the Hawks don’t see good results, I could see a version where they cash out on Trae Young, and bottom very hard.

[ecuhus1981]

I agree on the dark horse, ATL might want to shed the "perfectly mid" label so much that they go for a complete overhaul.

Low key, I think Toronto are good. They lack 2-way quality on the wing (Scottie is a 4), but they have a lot of other things going for them.

Utah has played the best ball of any of these teams, but I think they'll move Lauri before the start of the season. After that, I don't see the roster functioning well.

I would love for Brooklyn to end up with a top pick, but being awful doesn't guarantee that with flattened lottery odds. We'll see how it shakes out!

[babyjax13]

The West is a way better conference. I think there are only 3 teams that don't have the ability to make the playoffs: the Jazz, the Blazers, and the Clippers. But the Clippers will be competitive in the games that Kawhi and Harden play, so they won't bottom out. I think Portland has more talent, overall, than Utah, but Utah has the best player of the two.

1. Washington
2. Brooklyn
3. Portland
4. Utah
5. Detroit
6. Chicago
7. Charlotte
8. Toronto
9. Hawks
10. Clippers

[tmorgan]

If Detroit sucks, it won’t be because of tanking (except the last 15-20 games). They’re trying to put together a better roster, free of longshot reclamation projects and failed draft picks they won’t give up on. I can easily see a top 15 offense, but the defense is going to be pretty awful — an interesting set of players for a defense-first coach in Bickerstaff. Or maybe JBB plays Ausar and Holland a lot and the offense suffers but the defense is decent. Who knows, really. I could see anything from fighting with WAS and BRK for worst team in the league to being in the play-in race and finishing with like the 10th worst record. Anything beyond about 32 wins is highly unlikely, though.

[giberish]

IMO Washington, Brooklyn and Detroit look to be the worst 3 teams in the league. Portland looks to be the bottom of the WC. They've actually got a decent amount of talent (and not all crazy young) but by default figure to be near the bottom.

Charlotte, Chicago and Toronto are the next tier in the EC. All 3 might be respectable but could also be bad. I think Atlanta's a bit better than them, more certain to be respectable though not good.

SA and Utah are the next in the WC. Utah the biggest uncertainty. They've been ~.500 each of the last two seasons until an aggressive mid-season tank. Do they trade Lauri and commit to the full rebuild? Do they R&E Lauri, then make a midseason deal for another late-season tank? Do they try all year long? The Spurs are better but are still very young and have rotation holes.

There's a huge group of middle teams in the WC (I'd have 9 of the teams in the 11-20 range league-wide in the WC). Odds are a couple get hit by injuries and collapse (can't say which ones yet obviously). Though several don't control their 2025 1sts so they could fight on hard even if struggling.

[zeebneeb]

If your going to start making lists, at least keep up to date on the teams your listing.

If Detroit is anywhere near the three worst teams in the league again this year, something has gone horribly, horribly wrong.

[HornetJail]

1) Portland - I don't think they're the worst team, but the rest of the West is sooooooooooooo far ahead, and presents them very few winnable games compared to the East

2) Washington

3) Detroit

4) Brooklyn

5) Chicago

6) some western team that should be in the mix for playoffs but gets absolutely smashed by injury (Lakers or Warriors seem most likely)

7) Utah

8) Toronto

9) Charlotte (this actually puts Charlotte in the play-ins... some REALLY undeserving team will make it. I'd be shocked if we won 35 games, but same goes for the 5 eastern teams below this)

10) Houston

11) Hawks - play-in

12) Clippers

13) Spurs - play-in

14) Memphis - play-in

[JustBuzzin]

The NBA draft is rigged so of the realistic bad teams I'm gonna say either Brooklyn or Washington are the betting favorites to get the #1 pick.

Flagg is from the North East and those teams are in that market range.

[Myth]

Crossing my fingers that Blazers trade some more vets and are last. Even if they miss on Flagg, it is supposed to be a good draft overall.

[tbhawksfan1]

Some ya'll need to check definition of tanking. Hawks don't have their own pick so unless they trade to get it back from SAS, they are not tanking

[Chuck Everett]

I just have a hard time not seeing Washington, Brooklyn, Chicago and Utah being the bottom 4 worst record wise.

I have mentioned this a few times, but Utah has vets that want out (due to two straight seasons of blowing up a competitive team) and Chicago has Lavine and Vucevic on big contracts that no one wants and may not help winning at all. Chicago is going to try to win and they have some interesting youngish players, but I'm not sure how that roster does anything. We'll see if they use Lonzo's expiring contract for immediate help. They could actually have something as soon as the 2025 offseason if they would just commit to a one-season tank.


So lottery teams:
1. Brooklyn
2. Washington
3. Chicago
4. Utah
5. Portland
6. Toronto
7. Detroit
8. Charlotte - play-in
9. LA Clippers
10. San Antonio
11. Atlanta - play-in
12. Golden State
13. New Orleans - play-in
14. LA Lakers - play-in

[R-DAWG]

I think Chicago and Utah are the teams that I can see selling off pieces to start a rebuild.

Brooklyn, Portland and Washington have already done the same.

Toronto, Detroit and Charlotte are teams that can take a step in either direction- either closer to the play-in or the bottom.

The spurs look like they are trying to win with Wemby and the Hawks have no incentive to tank without their picks.

[PhillyNj]

I don’t t agree at the west being the better conference this year. Yea the bottom teams are deeper than the east, but the top 3 teams in the east are better than the top 3 three teams in the west.
East:
Sixers, Celtics,Knicks
Thunder, Nuggets, Timberwolves

[165bows]

If Detroit sucks, it won’t be because of tanking (except the last 15-20 games). They’re trying to put together a better roster, free of longshot reclamation projects and failed draft picks they won’t give up on. I can easily see a top 15 offense, but the defense is going to be pretty awful — an interesting set of players for a defense-first coach in Bickerstaff. Or maybe JBB plays Ausar and Holland a lot and the offense suffers but the defense is decent. Who knows, really. I could see anything from fighting with WAS and BRK for worst team in the league to being in the play-in race and finishing with like the 10th worst record. Anything beyond about 32 wins is highly unlikely, though.

Detroit, Chicago and Charlotte seems like a similar camp - not competing but not trying to be really really bad either.

[Asif16]

Atlanta is the sleeper team here. They've got rid of some big pieces while not adding anything of value (Im not high on Rassacher at all).

They could be pretty bad tbh

[brackdan70]

Crossing my fingers that Blazers trade some more vets and are last. Even if they miss on Flagg, it is supposed to be a good draft overall.

Yep at least 5 and possibly 8 or 9 guys are better than anyone in the last the draft.

[Ball4life32]

Atlanta is the sleeper team here. They've got rid of some big pieces while not adding anything of value (Im not high on Rassacher at all).

They could be pretty bad tbh

Which big pieces outside of Murray did they get rid of? And Trae + Murray were -2.62 net rating in two seasons...the hawks win total decreased after the Murray trade because of the fit.

[gswhoops]

Shamelessly tanking: Washington, Brooklyn

Enough talent to be better than the worst but not really competing for anything: Portland, Detroit, San Antonio

Time to sh*t or get off the pot: Utah, Chicago

Could compete for a play-in spot if everything goes right but probably lottery bound: Toronto, Charlotte

[wegotthabeet]

Crossing my fingers that Blazers trade some more vets and are last. Even if they miss on Flagg, it is supposed to be a good draft overall.

No need to cross your fingers the Blazers are absolute trash and clearly the worst team in the west. Draft is stacked. Maybe they can draft someone good for a change.

[7r5ur]

If your going to start making lists, at least keep up to date on the teams your listing.

If Detroit is anywhere near the three worst teams in the league again this year, something has gone horribly, horribly wrong.

Things go horribly wrong here a lot.

The reality is that the Pistons could double last year's win total and conceivably only jump 2-4 spots in the tank-o-rama if some of the other teams like the Spurs and Hornets also get better.