NOP-UTA Trade

[rambo_ortega]

Pelicans Get:
John Collins
Walker Kessler
Collin Sexton

Their roster becomes more well rounded after this trade. A lot of toughness, athleticism and defense.

Murray/CJ/Zion/Collins/Kessler
Alvarado/Sexton/Jones/Murphy/Theis

Jazz Get:
Brandon Ingram
Jordan Hawkins

They get another young All Star to pair with Lauri

George/Clarkson/BI/Lauri/Hendricks

[kobe_vs_jordan]

Probably two picks and a swap short IMO. Collins taking away from the package . Sexton as a six man is a positive but don't think him and Kessler nets you Ingram.

[Colbinii]

This isn't far off, but New Orleans would be going hard at Lauri + Kessler + Sexton for Ingram + Hawkins + 2025 NOP 1st SWAP [Utah can swap any of their picks with New Orleans 1st] + 2026 1st + 2028 1st [Top 3 Protection]

New Orleans still runs into a cap issue, which sort of requires them to off-load C.J. in a different deal.

[babyjax13]

This isn't far off, but New Orleans would be going hard at Lauri + Kessler + Sexton for Ingram + Hawkins + 2025 NOP 1st SWAP [Utah can swap any of their picks with New Orleans 1st] + 2026 1st + 2028 1st [Top 3 Protection]

New Orleans still runs into a cap issue, which sort of requires them to off-load C.J. in a different deal.

Swapping Lauri for Ingram would be a weird move. If we are tanking we want to maximize the asset return.

[babyjax13]

I would rather keep Sexton than trade for Ingram. Collins + Kessler + worst first in 2025 or 2027 is probably the offer, and I'd get it if New Orleans said no.

[jayjaysee]

I would rather keep Sexton than trade for Ingram. Collins + Kessler + worst first in 2025 or 2027 is probably the offer, and I'd get it if New Orleans said no.

I think Utah would be better off adding a first with some variance and finding a third team with a center..

Ayton, Poeltl? Both should be available for less than Collins and two firsts.. So NOP gets some extra value back..

If not, Utah is going to end up having to trade that first with Clarkson for a center anyways..

[YayBasketball]

I would rather keep Sexton than trade for Ingram. Collins + Kessler + worst first in 2025 or 2027 is probably the offer, and I'd get it if New Orleans said no.

I think Utah would be better off adding a first with some variance and finding a third team with a center..

Ayton, Poeltl? Both should be available for less than Collins and two firsts.. So NOP gets some extra value back..

If not, Utah is going to end up having to trade that first with Clarkson for a center anyways..

This is my thinking, too. Seems like Ainge/Jazz would really want to keep Kessler, for value and for positional fit that makes sense. Would they be good with Eubanks and Filipowski (and Lauri?) as their center rotation?

Yea, Collins + one 1st for Ayton or Poeltl, then one 1st and Ayton/Poeltl to Pels. Is one protected/ worst of MIN/CLE/UTA 1st enough to take Collins for one of those players? Would help their tank, and they wouldn't be taking on more salary.

I'm coming around to the Ayton fit on the Pels. If Coach Green can get him to buy in defensively like on that Suns' finals run, then they could be cookin' wit somethin'.

[babyjax13]

I would rather keep Sexton than trade for Ingram. Collins + Kessler + worst first in 2025 or 2027 is probably the offer, and I'd get it if New Orleans said no.

I think Utah would be better off adding a first with some variance and finding a third team with a center..

Ayton, Poeltl? Both should be available for less than Collins and two firsts.. So NOP gets some extra value back..

If not, Utah is going to end up having to trade that first with Clarkson for a center anyways..

This is my thinking, too. Seems like Ainge/Jazz would really want to keep Kessler, for value and for positional fit that makes sense. Would they be good with Eubanks and Filipowski (and Lauri?) as their center rotation?

Yea, Collins + one 1st for Ayton or Poeltl, then one 1st and Ayton/Poeltl to Pels. Is one protected/ worst of MIN/CLE/UTA 1st enough to take Collins for one of those players? Would help their tank, and they wouldn't be taking on more salary.

I'm coming around to the Ayton fit on the Pels. If Coach Green can get him to buy in defensively like on that Suns' finals run, then they could be cookin' wit somethin'.

I'd want value from Portland in a Collins-Ayton swap.

[YayBasketball]

I think Utah would be better off adding a first with some variance and finding a third team with a center..

Ayton, Poeltl? Both should be available for less than Collins and two firsts.. So NOP gets some extra value back..

If not, Utah is going to end up having to trade that first with Clarkson for a center anyways..

This is my thinking, too. Seems like Ainge/Jazz would really want to keep Kessler, for value and for positional fit that makes sense. Would they be good with Eubanks and Filipowski (and Lauri?) as their center rotation?

Yea, Collins + one 1st for Ayton or Poeltl, then one 1st and Ayton/Poeltl to Pels. Is one protected/ worst of MIN/CLE/UTA 1st enough to take Collins for one of those players? Would help their tank, and they wouldn't be taking on more salary.

I'm coming around to the Ayton fit on the Pels. If Coach Green can get him to buy in defensively like on that Suns' finals run, then they could be cookin' wit somethin'.

I'd want value from Portland in a Collins-Ayton swap.

Can you explain further? You, as in, the Jazz or the Pels? The idea would be in order for Jazz to keep Kessler, they use Collins and two 1sts to get Ingram. Then Pels would get Ayton and one 1st (MIN/CLE) and Blazers get Collins and one 1st (MIN/CLE). Portland would need added value in a Collins-Ayton swap, not give any value. Right?

[jayjaysee]

This is my thinking, too. Seems like Ainge/Jazz would really want to keep Kessler, for value and for positional fit that makes sense. Would they be good with Eubanks and Filipowski (and Lauri?) as their center rotation?

Yea, Collins + one 1st for Ayton or Poeltl, then one 1st and Ayton/Poeltl to Pels. Is one protected/ worst of MIN/CLE/UTA 1st enough to take Collins for one of those players? Would help their tank, and they wouldn't be taking on more salary.

I'm coming around to the Ayton fit on the Pels. If Coach Green can get him to buy in defensively like on that Suns' finals run, then they could be cookin' wit somethin'.

I'd want value from Portland in a Collins-Ayton swap.

Can you explain further? You, as in, the Jazz or the Pels? The idea would be in order for Jazz to keep Kessler, they use Collins and two 1sts to get Ingram. Then Pels would get Ayton and one 1st (MIN/CLE) and Blazers get Collins and one 1st (MIN/CLE). Portland would need added value in a Collins-Ayton swap, not give any value. Right?

I don’t think Portland needs much value to save 10 mil a year. But think they’d get something out of it.

I suggested it how you wrote with Portland getting a first.. But that would feel like a win for them even if it’s the latest of the 2025 firsts..

[babyjax13]

This is my thinking, too. Seems like Ainge/Jazz would really want to keep Kessler, for value and for positional fit that makes sense. Would they be good with Eubanks and Filipowski (and Lauri?) as their center rotation?

Yea, Collins + one 1st for Ayton or Poeltl, then one 1st and Ayton/Poeltl to Pels. Is one protected/ worst of MIN/CLE/UTA 1st enough to take Collins for one of those players? Would help their tank, and they wouldn't be taking on more salary.

I'm coming around to the Ayton fit on the Pels. If Coach Green can get him to buy in defensively like on that Suns' finals run, then they could be cookin' wit somethin'.

I'd want value from Portland in a Collins-Ayton swap.

Can you explain further? You, as in, the Jazz or the Pels? The idea would be in order for Jazz to keep Kessler, they use Collins and two 1sts to get Ingram. Then Pels would get Ayton and one 1st (MIN/CLE) and Blazers get Collins and one 1st (MIN/CLE). Portland would need added value in a Collins-Ayton swap, not give any value. Right?

Ayton is a larger contract for a player that is no better - perhaps worse. I think Portland would have to pay to turn Ayton into Collins - or at least, they should have to.

[zimpy27]

Sexton, Okoro, Ingram, Lauri, Kessler

This team should be the goal for Jazz if they want to compete.

[YayBasketball]

Ayton is a larger contract for a player that is no better - perhaps worse. I think Portland would have to pay to turn Ayton into Collins - or at least, they should have to.

Wow, interesting. I think many would disagree on Collins => Ayton. The valuations of Ayton are pretty wide, kind of like Ingram right now. Which is why that swap makes some sense for the Pels. I think Ayton has more value due to his size to consistently defend Centers and overall defensive presence (when engaged). But that's the theoretical potential he showed years ago on a good Suns team, and a lot has happened since then. Given the Pels' position, I'd be willing to bet on Ayton's resurrection over Collins' safe floor.

[zimpy27]

Why couldn't Pelicans use Collins at the C?

[babyjax13]

Ayton is a larger contract for a player that is no better - perhaps worse. I think Portland would have to pay to turn Ayton into Collins - or at least, they should have to.

Wow, interesting. I think many would disagree on Collins => Ayton. The valuations of Ayton are pretty wide, kind of like Ingram right now. Which is why that swap makes some sense for the Pels. I think Ayton has more value due to his size to consistently defend Centers and overall defensive presence (when engaged). But that's the theoretical potential he showed years ago on a good Suns team, and a lot has happened since then. Given the Pels' position, I'd be willing to bet on Ayton's resurrection over Collins' safe floor.

I imagine that most people see Ayton as a clear negative. I'm not saying Collins is positive, they are both flawed players on bad contracts.

[babyjax13]

Sexton, Okoro, Ingram, Lauri, Kessler

This team should be the goal for Jazz if they want to compete.

Still not a playoff team. If we want to compete for the playin, though, it would work.

[zimpy27]

Sexton, Okoro, Ingram, Lauri, Kessler

This team should be the goal for Jazz if they want to compete.

Still not a playoff team. If we want to compete for the playin, though, it would work.

No it's not but it's a young team that has several years to grow together and Jazz have a bunch of FRPs to upgrade pieces.

It's still not a better plan than tanking for a top 4 guys in the 2025 class. Using that player on a rookie dealer with Lauri and then having cap room to have 6-7 above average players, built like Boston.

[YayBasketball]

Why couldn't Pelicans use Collins at the C?

They could, actually. But he is 6'9 with a small wingspan, and doesn't offer much resistance for rim protection. And since he's a negative/neutral contract, there would have to be a lot extra coming along with Collins to make a positive return package for the Pelicans.

[YayBasketball]

I imagine that most people see Ayton as a clear negative. I'm not saying Collins is positive, they are both flawed players on bad contracts.

Hmm, I guess so. I could see multiple teams willing to get Ayton as a reclamation impact player in the right situation, like a Pels team desperate for talent and impact at the Center spot. He was legit the 3rd best player and best defender on a Finals team recently (ok, Collins made the ECF, too, lol).

Some weird motor/headcase stuff with Ayton, but how much of that was a soured situation with a now twice fired coach? Monty being fired on that remaining contract amount with a rebuilding team should change some hindsight about that Ayton/Suns fallout.

[babyjax13]

I imagine that most people see Ayton as a clear negative. I'm not saying Collins is positive, they are both flawed players on bad contracts.

Hmm, I guess so. I could see multiple teams willing to get Ayton as a reclamation impact player in the right situation, like a Pels team desperate for talent and impact at the Center spot. He was legit the 3rd best player and best defender on a Finals team recently (ok, Collins made the ECF, too, lol).

Some weird motor/headcase stuff with Ayton, but how much of that was a soured situation with a now twice fired coach? Monty being fired on that remaining contract amount with a rebuilding team should change some hindsight about that Ayton/Suns fallout.

I think we have already seen him as a reclamation project and it hasn't gone well. Just looking at their raw stats and BPM, Ayton and Collins are really similar for their careers:

Collins 16p 8r 1a 1b +0.8BPM, 8.3 career VORP (7 years)
Ayton 17p 10r 2a 1b +1.0BPM, 8.3 career VORP (6 years)

Both have declined since moving from the teams they started with and Ayton's BPM, etc. look a bit better right now, but a lot of that is from playing center all year where +/- stats tend to be pretty favorable to guys because of their importance to the defense. Relative to other centers it is pretty bad. Collins +/- stats looked a lot better once shifted to center, so I don't think there is a meaningful difference in impact between the two, nor has there really been for their careers. I imagine a lot of other catch all stats tell pretty similar stories.

So, lets say Ayton is a bit better (probably true) but not significantly so (say, the difference between the 23rd best center in the league and ... the 26th best center) ... is that worth $8 million per year more? Then add that for a team that would like a guy who can play stretch 5 next to a power forward that doesn't space well, or would like a rim-runner to play next to an existing stretch center ... and I think Collins, flawed as he is, might have a larger market.

Also reiterating: I want neither on my team. Both would probably be good contributors on an MLE somewhere (or just above), but making 26 million and 34 million, respectively, is just horrible value.