RealGM

Collins for Huerter + Lyles

As per the video, Collins is "the perfect power forward fit" for the Kings.

The Jazz get much worse on the floor, a perfect trade for a team hunting the top pick in the next draft. The only worry is that Ainge could screw this up by asking for a pick in return.

I think Huerter + Lyles provide more on-court value than Collins...unless you think Huerter is washed from his injury last year.

Colbinii wrote:I think Huerter + Lyles provide more on-court value than Collins...unless you think Huerter is washed from his injury last year.

This is where I land. It's not worth the loss in depth for the questionable fit. I'd be a little more down for Huerter/McDaniels/Min salary, but even then, I'd be iffy.

Colbinii wrote:I think Huerter + Lyles provide more on-court value than Collins...unless you think Huerter is washed from his injury last year.

Lyles isn't more than salary fodder to me; I'd just as soon cut him. Maybe Huerter bounces back to his peak level in 22-23, but that's still a lesser player than Collins, imo.

Collins had "?" around him in ATL, in UTA he answered the questions, he sucks, and he's massively overpaid, no team hopeful of competing should trade for him.

pillwenney wrote:

Colbinii wrote:I think Huerter + Lyles provide more on-court value than Collins...unless you think Huerter is washed from his injury last year.

This is where I land. It's not worth the loss in depth for the questionable fit. I'd be a little more down for Huerter/McDaniels/Min salary, but even then, I'd be iffy.

I'd gladly take McDaniels instead of Lyles.

SkyHook wrote:

Colbinii wrote:I think Huerter + Lyles provide more on-court value than Collins...unless you think Huerter is washed from his injury last year.

Lyles isn't more than salary fodder to me; I'd just as soon cut him. Maybe Huerter bounces back to his peak level in 22-23, but that's still a lesser player than Collins, imo.

Huerter and Collins were pretty similar when healthy over the past few years, which one being paid significantly less.

Lyles isn't salary fodder for the Kings though--and that seems to be the sticking point you are missing from this deal. He is a key-piece in making the team operate as a neutral to positive defender and 3P spacing big man.

Uhh so

... John Collins can't play PF at all?

Like, we just saw this over and over again last year. He's nowhere near skilled enough or good enough on defense to play PF in the NBA.

I don’t understand why they would call Collins a perfect fit next to Sabonis? Just because he can space the floor? Inconsistently?

He’s overpaid and not a plus on defense.. Never liked this idea when Realgm threw it around, but I like it even less with Demar on the roster now. You don’t need more offense, you need as many low usage defense players as possible..

Colbinii wrote:

SkyHook wrote:

Colbinii wrote:I think Huerter + Lyles provide more on-court value than Collins...unless you think Huerter is washed from his injury last year.

Lyles isn't more than salary fodder to me; I'd just as soon cut him. Maybe Huerter bounces back to his peak level in 22-23, but that's still a lesser player than Collins, imo.

Huerter and Collins were pretty similar when healthy over the past few years, which one being paid significantly less.

Lyles isn't salary fodder for the Kings though--and that seems to be the sticking point you are missing from this deal. He is a key-piece in making the team operate as a neutral to positive defender and 3P spacing big man.

Happy to leave Lyles out of the deal.

SkyHook wrote:

Colbinii wrote:

SkyHook wrote:
Lyles isn't more than salary fodder to me; I'd just as soon cut him. Maybe Huerter bounces back to his peak level in 22-23, but that's still a lesser player than Collins, imo.

Huerter and Collins were pretty similar when healthy over the past few years, which one being paid significantly less.

Lyles isn't salary fodder for the Kings though--and that seems to be the sticking point you are missing from this deal. He is a key-piece in making the team operate as a neutral to positive defender and 3P spacing big man.

Happy to leave Lyles out of the deal.

That's fine, I still would prefer Huerter + Lyles over Collins + Lyles. I'm also a proponent of elite shooting guards/wings with some creation game and non-negative defenders [Huerter, who comes across as neutral on that end] over a big man like Collins.

But maybe other people feel differently about the comparison. The Kings identity has been outscore your opponents, and Huerter does a better job of that than Collins while Collins doesn't fix and defensive issues. Adding Demar as a 3/4 scoring wing who doesn't space the floor really emphasises the need for Huerter at the 2.

I've also never been a fan of John Collins, count me in as not willing to move Huerter/Lyles for him. With the salary we'd have to send out to bring Collins in, it just wouldn't be worth it unless we got picks back too and that won't happen.

Think the league kinda has moved on from Collin type of players . He would been the perfect PF in the 2000s. PFs now have to defend in space now. He too small for center . His shooting and lob threat will keep him in the lg.

Mavrelous wrote:Collins had "?" around him in ATL, in UTA he answered the questions, he sucks, and he's massively overpaid, no team hopeful of competing should trade for him.

He doesn't suck, though? Overpaid - absolutely - but he's a perfectly capable 5th starter or 1st guy off the bench. With two years left on his contract and Sacramento not needing to extend Murray till he expires, if he thinks he fills a need (and he does do some things they could use) I think he's a perfectly fine player to swap Huerter for.

Last season: (BPM/VORP/DARKO/CPM)
Collins -0.9/0.5/-1.2/-1.2
Huerter -0.8/0.5/0.7/1.1

Those are not super different players impact-wise (DARKO indicates more expected value for Huerter moving forward), and for their careers Collins has been a bit better (e.g., Huerter has a positive BPM in one season, Collins does in 4, Collins has played one more season).

Both are not super valuable archetypes, Collins is a power forward who largely needs his offense created for him, Huerter below average defender who shoots good but not great and is just pretty "meh" overall (I think his "creation" is pretty overrated, though it does help).

I kind of don't disagree that Huerter is more valuable, largely because of contract, so Utah should probably add some slightly-more-than-marginal value if they are cutting future payroll. The main story here, though, is Sacramento could actually use a guy who gets his baskets on spot-ups, rim-running, and lobs ... so while Collins isn't a great archetype he is a good fit.

RE filler, don't really care who it is. Lyles will get cut, so if SAC likes him they can keep him if another salary makes sense. e.g., I'd do Huerter + McDaniels for Collins + 2 2nds. Or offer the option for Sacramento to swap their 2027 1st with the worst of our 2027 1sts - something like that.

babyjax13 wrote:

Mavrelous wrote:Collins had "?" around him in ATL, in UTA he answered the questions, he sucks, and he's massively overpaid, no team hopeful of competing should trade for him.

He doesn't suck, though? Overpaid - absolutely - but he's a perfectly capable 5th starter or 1st guy off the bench. With two years left on his contract and Sacramento not needing to extend Murray till he expires, if he thinks he fills a need (and he does do some things they could use) I think he's a perfectly fine player to swap Huerter for.

Last season: (BPM/VORP/DARKO/CPM)
Collins -0.9/0.5/-1.2/-1.2
Huerter -0.8/0.5/0.7/1.1

Those are not super different players impact-wise (DARKO indicates more expected value for Huerter moving forward), and for their careers Collins has been a bit better (e.g., Huerter has a positive BPM in one season, Collins does in 4, Collins has played one more season).

Both are not super valuable archetypes, Collins is a power forward who largely needs his offense created for him, Huerter below average defender who shoots good but not great and is just pretty "meh" overall (I think his "creation" is pretty overrated, though it does help).

I kind of don't disagree that Huerter is more valuable, largely because of contract, so Utah should probably add some slightly-more-than-marginal value if they are cutting future payroll. The main story here, though, is Sacramento could actually use a guy who gets his baskets on spot-ups, rim-running, and lobs ... so while Collins isn't a great archetype he is a good fit.

RE filler, don't really care who it is. Lyles will get cut, so if SAC likes him they can keep him if another salary makes sense. e.g., I'd do Huerter + McDaniels for Collins + 2 2nds. Or offer the option for Sacramento to swap their 2027 1st with the worst of our 2027 1sts - something like that.

I agree with much of this.
Huerter's creation is good though, but he doesn't bring it out nearly enough.

I think if the Kings were to look into Collins now he would be as a backup 5 that swings to the 4 occasionally. He would be the P&R partner for Monk and that tandem could be lethal off the bench.
The sticking point for me though is with the addition of DDR Huerters spacing has become so much more valuable.
Overall I think if it were Huerter/McDaniels for Collins it is doable.

You also have to look at the future. With Collins/DDR the Kings could have essentially $50m (DDR partial guarantee in last year) in expiring money with those two next year and it might just be the time the Kings make a big all in move for a superstar.

codydaze wrote:I've also never been a fan of John Collins, count me in as not willing to move Huerter/Lyles for him. With the salary we'd have to send out to bring Collins in, it just wouldn't be worth it unless we got picks back too and that won't happen.

This is my take right here.

Taking in Collins and giving up pieces that are then movable again for assets makes zero sense. Kings might as well do that themselves.

It would take incentive to take on that salary for the not really fit or reliable production at the right position.

And Ainge will NEVER send out picks.

babyjax13 wrote:

Mavrelous wrote:Collins had "?" around him in ATL, in UTA he answered the questions, he sucks, and he's massively overpaid, no team hopeful of competing should trade for him.

He doesn't suck, though? Overpaid - absolutely - but he's a perfectly capable 5th starter or 1st guy off the bench. With two years left on his contract and Sacramento not needing to extend Murray till he expires, if he thinks he fills a need (and he does do some things they could use) I think he's a perfectly fine player to swap Huerter for.

Last season: (BPM/VORP/DARKO/CPM)
Collins -0.9/0.5/-1.2/-1.2
Huerter -0.8/0.5/0.7/1.1

Those are not super different players impact-wise (DARKO indicates more expected value for Huerter moving forward), and for their careers Collins has been a bit better (e.g., Huerter has a positive BPM in one season, Collins does in 4, Collins has played one more season).

Both are not super valuable archetypes, Collins is a power forward who largely needs his offense created for him, Huerter below average defender who shoots good but not great and is just pretty "meh" overall (I think his "creation" is pretty overrated, though it does help).

I kind of don't disagree that Huerter is more valuable, largely because of contract, so Utah should probably add some slightly-more-than-marginal value if they are cutting future payroll. The main story here, though, is Sacramento could actually use a guy who gets his baskets on spot-ups, rim-running, and lobs ... so while Collins isn't a great archetype he is a good fit.

RE filler, don't really care who it is. Lyles will get cut, so if SAC likes him they can keep him if another salary makes sense. e.g., I'd do Huerter + McDaniels for Collins + 2 2nds. Or offer the option for Sacramento to swap their 2027 1st with the worst of our 2027 1sts - something like that.

The problem is that Huerter in that role makes sense at his salary. He’s a little above MLE level - which is where both as a fifth starter/key bench guy should be. But Collin’s over twenty million per doesn’t jive for that at all because he doesn’t have that extra blast sometimes that makes that price tag make sense.

babyjax13 wrote:

Mavrelous wrote:Collins had "?" around him in ATL, in UTA he answered the questions, he sucks, and he's massively overpaid, no team hopeful of competing should trade for him.

He doesn't suck, though? Overpaid - absolutely - but he's a perfectly capable 5th starter or 1st guy off the bench. With two years left on his contract and Sacramento not needing to extend Murray till he expires, if he thinks he fills a need (and he does do some things they could use) I think he's a perfectly fine player to swap Huerter for.

Last season: (BPM/VORP/DARKO/CPM)
Collins -0.9/0.5/-1.2/-1.2
Huerter -0.8/0.5/0.7/1.1

Those are not super different players impact-wise (DARKO indicates more expected value for Huerter moving forward), and for their careers Collins has been a bit better (e.g., Huerter has a positive BPM in one season, Collins does in 4, Collins has played one more season).

Both are not super valuable archetypes, Collins is a power forward who largely needs his offense created for him, Huerter below average defender who shoots good but not great and is just pretty "meh" overall (I think his "creation" is pretty overrated, though it does help).

I kind of don't disagree that Huerter is more valuable, largely because of contract, so Utah should probably add some slightly-more-than-marginal value if they are cutting future payroll. The main story here, though, is Sacramento could actually use a guy who gets his baskets on spot-ups, rim-running, and lobs ... so while Collins isn't a great archetype he is a good fit.

RE filler, don't really care who it is. Lyles will get cut, so if SAC likes him they can keep him if another salary makes sense. e.g., I'd do Huerter + McDaniels for Collins + 2 2nds. Or offer the option for Sacramento to swap their 2027 1st with the worst of our 2027 1sts - something like that.

Why are you using 1 year of statistics?

Colbinii wrote:

babyjax13 wrote:

Mavrelous wrote:Collins had "?" around him in ATL, in UTA he answered the questions, he sucks, and he's massively overpaid, no team hopeful of competing should trade for him.

He doesn't suck, though? Overpaid - absolutely - but he's a perfectly capable 5th starter or 1st guy off the bench. With two years left on his contract and Sacramento not needing to extend Murray till he expires, if he thinks he fills a need (and he does do some things they could use) I think he's a perfectly fine player to swap Huerter for.

Last season: (BPM/VORP/DARKO/CPM)
Collins -0.9/0.5/-1.2/-1.2
Huerter -0.8/0.5/0.7/1.1

Those are not super different players impact-wise (DARKO indicates more expected value for Huerter moving forward), and for their careers Collins has been a bit better (e.g., Huerter has a positive BPM in one season, Collins does in 4, Collins has played one more season).

Both are not super valuable archetypes, Collins is a power forward who largely needs his offense created for him, Huerter below average defender who shoots good but not great and is just pretty "meh" overall (I think his "creation" is pretty overrated, though it does help).

I kind of don't disagree that Huerter is more valuable, largely because of contract, so Utah should probably add some slightly-more-than-marginal value if they are cutting future payroll. The main story here, though, is Sacramento could actually use a guy who gets his baskets on spot-ups, rim-running, and lobs ... so while Collins isn't a great archetype he is a good fit.

RE filler, don't really care who it is. Lyles will get cut, so if SAC likes him they can keep him if another salary makes sense. e.g., I'd do Huerter + McDaniels for Collins + 2 2nds. Or offer the option for Sacramento to swap their 2027 1st with the worst of our 2027 1sts - something like that.

Why are you using 1 year of statistics?

How many years should I use? Two? Which would make Huerter look better? Career, which would make Collins look much better? I'm using last year because it is a reasonably large sample and it is recent. e.g., just firing up the LEBRON player comparison, Collins is better than Huerter every season but 22-23 where Huerter was better and 23-24 where they were indistinguishable by LEBRON but Collins had a significant edge in LEBRON WAR. BPM favors Collins most years, too. CPM and DARKO I don't have multi-year access to.

babyjax13 wrote:

Mavrelous wrote:Collins had "?" around him in ATL, in UTA he answered the questions, he sucks, and he's massively overpaid, no team hopeful of competing should trade for him.

He doesn't suck, though? Overpaid - absolutely - but he's a perfectly capable 5th starter or 1st guy off the bench. With two years left on his contract and Sacramento not needing to extend Murray till he expires, if he thinks he fills a need (and he does do some things they could use) I think he's a perfectly fine player to swap Huerter for.

Last season: (BPM/VORP/DARKO/CPM)
Collins -0.9/0.5/-1.2/-1.2
Huerter -0.8/0.5/0.7/1.1

Those are not super different players impact-wise (DARKO indicates more expected value for Huerter moving forward), and for their careers Collins has been a bit better (e.g., Huerter has a positive BPM in one season, Collins does in 4, Collins has played one more season).

Both are not super valuable archetypes, Collins is a power forward who largely needs his offense created for him, Huerter below average defender who shoots good but not great and is just pretty "meh" overall (I think his "creation" is pretty overrated, though it does help).

I kind of don't disagree that Huerter is more valuable, largely because of contract, so Utah should probably add some slightly-more-than-marginal value if they are cutting future payroll. The main story here, though, is Sacramento could actually use a guy who gets his baskets on spot-ups, rim-running, and lobs ... so while Collins isn't a great archetype he is a good fit.

RE filler, don't really care who it is. Lyles will get cut, so if SAC likes him they can keep him if another salary makes sense. e.g., I'd do Huerter + McDaniels for Collins + 2 2nds. Or offer the option for Sacramento to swap their 2027 1st with the worst of our 2027 1sts - something like that.

He does suck, of course salary determines the expected performance and thus the evaluation, Lavine is elite at MLE, horrible at max money...
Huerter is paid roughly his salary and has a role that fits virtually everywhere, he did have a single down year last year.
Collins is an odd fit, forward sized without much forward skill especially on defense, paid a good starter money.
In this cap environment, where you need to allocate every $ under 1st Apron, and jump Aprons only when you are ready, having player like Collins with his salary makes it much harder to fill...
Collins was a decent gamble when Ainge got him, the gamble blew up, he's a deadweight now...