Denver / Orlando

[Colbinii]

Denver Out: Zeke Nnaji, DEN 2030 1st Swap
Denver In: Gary Harris

Orlando Out: Gary Harris
Orlando In: Zeke Nnaji, DEN 2030 1st Swap

Denver adds an old-face who is a poor-mans KCP replacement. He can shoot and defend to a level where he can play minutes in a playoff series. The cost could be steep, as a 1st in 6 years could have some variance, but it is worth the cost when you have the best player in the NBA.

Orlando has depth in the back-court and with the positive off-season for Jett Howard, Gary Harris will be buried in the depth chart. Orlando makes a long-term play without really hurting the short-term by adding a potential swap in 6 years when Wagner/Paolo are on Max Deals.

[Godaddycurse]

Orlando might not want Nnaji's money on the books next year if they want to dodge the tax one more time before pablo's max kicks in

[tiderulz]

cant see why Orlando does this. Harris is the more productive player and only guaranteed for this year.

[psman2]

For Denver, I would need some real protection on that swap, like top 10. Harris is just a replacement level jag at this point, I rather just give Braun and Watson more minutes than risk an unprotected swap on Harris. I know a lot of the value here is to cover Zeke's contract and it should cost a penny to get off him, but I think at this point they are better off hoping they can develop Zeke into a rotation player than do this unprotected swap.

For Orlando, that is a lot of salary to eat for a swap that might not move them much if any. I would require the upside of it been unprotected. Thus I just don't think I see this one as likely.

[Colbinii]

cant see why Orlando does this. Harris is the more productive player and only guaranteed for this year.

Well the reason they do it was explained.

1) Jett Howard is ready to step-up for 10-15 MPG
2) Anthony Black is ready to step-up for 20-25 MPG
3) The team values an unprotected Swap in 6 years when they are fighting against the CBA

That's really the sell here for the trade, in case you couldn't see the case for Orlando. Maybe you disagree with all of these aspects, but these are the meat and potatoes of the deal for Orlando.

[Colbinii]

Orlando might not want Nnaji's money on the books next year if they want to dodge the tax one more time before pablo's max kicks in

I don't see Orlando being remotely close to the Tax next year.

[orlando_joe]

maybe magic do this if it was expiring deal ? but not taking on yrs of money for 3rd or 4th string foward..after just drafting da silva and extending isaac

[Colbinii]

maybe magic do this if it was expiring deal ? but not taking on yrs of money for 3rd or 4th string foward..after just drafting da silva and extending isaac

An expiring? Nobody is giving an unprotected swap, 6 years out, for Gary Harris my man.

I see, so Orlando doesn't value the high-variance, future pick? That's fine. Maybe they think their window is now.

[tiderulz]

cant see why Orlando does this. Harris is the more productive player and only guaranteed for this year.

Well the reason they do it was explained.

1) Jett Howard is ready to step-up for 10-15 MPG
2) Anthony Black is ready to step-up for 20-25 MPG
3) The team values an unprotected Swap in 6 years when they are fighting against the CBA

That's really the sell here for the trade, in case you couldn't see the case for Orlando. Maybe you disagree with all of these aspects, but these are the meat and potatoes of the deal for Orlando.

Orlando looks to be ready for another playoff run next year. Black isnt quite ready yet, still doesnt have a defined role. he played 2 games in the playoffs for a grand total of 11 minutes. Harris started 27 games last year. yes, he is fading back but is a reliable player and 3 pt shooter when called on. And a pick swap 6 years from now, not a super selling point. Jokic will be 35 and his game doesnt rely on ahtletcism (evidenced by his body) so it isnt going to be a top-10 pick. and also taking on 3 more years of salary for a bench player. not even 1st of the bench player

[Colbinii]

cant see why Orlando does this. Harris is the more productive player and only guaranteed for this year.

Well the reason they do it was explained.

1) Jett Howard is ready to step-up for 10-15 MPG
2) Anthony Black is ready to step-up for 20-25 MPG
3) The team values an unprotected Swap in 6 years when they are fighting against the CBA

That's really the sell here for the trade, in case you couldn't see the case for Orlando. Maybe you disagree with all of these aspects, but these are the meat and potatoes of the deal for Orlando.

Orlando looks to be ready for another playoff run next year. Black isnt quite ready yet, still doesnt have a defined role. he played 2 games in the playoffs for a grand total of 11 minutes. Harris started 27 games last year. yes, he is fading back but is a reliable player and 3 pt shooter when called on. And a pick swap 6 years from now, not a super selling point. Jokic will be 35 and his game doesnt rely on ahtletcism (evidenced by his body) so it isnt going to be a top-10 pick.

You don't know if it will be a Top 10 pick or not.

34 year-old LeBron James missed the playoffs
31, 32 and 35 year old Steph Curry missed the playoffs

These players both have aged extremely well yet missed post-seasons in their mid-30s.

[Godaddycurse]

Orlando might not want Nnaji's money on the books next year if they want to dodge the tax one more time before pablo's max kicks in

I don't see Orlando being remotely close to the Tax next year.

did you count Suggs' new contract? They are at 164M without Suggs' contract on BRef. Tax is expected to be around 187M or so if 10% raise so they will be slightly above it after Sugg's contract

[orlando_joe]

maybe magic do this if it was expiring deal ? but not taking on yrs of money for 3rd or 4th string foward..after just drafting da silva and extending isaac

An expiring? Nobody is giving an unprotected swap, 6 years out, for Gary Harris my man.

I see, so Orlando doesn't value the high-variance, future pick? That's fine. Maybe they think their window is now.

nobody paying 4 yrs of 8 mill for a swap 6 yrs out that might be good or nothing my man...sure not a team that should be in tax as soon as next yr

[Colbinii]

maybe magic do this if it was expiring deal ? but not taking on yrs of money for 3rd or 4th string foward..after just drafting da silva and extending isaac

An expiring? Nobody is giving an unprotected swap, 6 years out, for Gary Harris my man.

I see, so Orlando doesn't value the high-variance, future pick? That's fine. Maybe they think their window is now.

nobody paying 4 yrs of 8 mill for a swap 6 yrs out that might be good or nothing my man...sure not a team that should be in tax as soon as next yr

Well Orlando is already paying 8 Million this year for Gary Harris.

Orlando would be adding 8.1 Million in 2025-2026 [Assuming they decline Gary Harris Option], 7.5 Million in 2026-2027 [~4% of salary cap] and then 7.5 Million in 2027-2028 [~4% of salary cap].

Maybe I am overvaluing the value of a swap when a team is likely to be a Top 10 team in the NBA [Orlando] compared to a team they can swap with have already been in a Championship Window for 4 years [Denver].

Teams rarely have a 10-year Championship Window.

[Colbinii]

Orlando might not want Nnaji's money on the books next year if they want to dodge the tax one more time before pablo's max kicks in

I don't see Orlando being remotely close to the Tax next year.

did you count Suggs' new contract? They are at 164M without Suggs' contract on BRef. Tax is expected to be around 187M or so if 10% raise so they will be slightly above it after Sugg's contract

They will be close, but I expect them to be under. There is massive incentive to stay under--they are basically guaranteed to be in the Tax with 2 Max contracts in Paolo/Wagner with Suggs also taking up a large portion as well.

I see Orlando doing everything they can to avoid the Tax in 2025-2026.

[Godaddycurse]

I don't see Orlando being remotely close to the Tax next year.

did you count Suggs' new contract? They are at 164M without Suggs' contract on BRef. Tax is expected to be around 187M or so if 10% raise so they will be slightly above it after Sugg's contract

They will be close, but I expect them to be under. There is massive incentive to stay under--they are basically guaranteed to be in the Tax with 2 Max contracts in Paolo/Wagner with Suggs also taking up a large portion as well.

I see Orlando doing everything they can to avoid the Tax in 2025-2026.

Right, which is why i dont think they want to take on Nnaji's contract

[Colbinii]

did you count Suggs' new contract? They are at 164M without Suggs' contract on BRef. Tax is expected to be around 187M or so if 10% raise so they will be slightly above it after Sugg's contract

They will be close, but I expect them to be under. There is massive incentive to stay under--they are basically guaranteed to be in the Tax with 2 Max contracts in Paolo/Wagner with Suggs also taking up a large portion as well.

I see Orlando doing everything they can to avoid the Tax in 2025-2026.

Right, which is why i dont think they want to take on Nnaji's contract

I think the asset in this trade is more valuable than what they would need to use to get below the Tax.

For example, moving Cole Anthony should be easy to move since he fits into a teams MLE and is an expiring.

[orlando_joe]

An expiring? Nobody is giving an unprotected swap, 6 years out, for Gary Harris my man.

I see, so Orlando doesn't value the high-variance, future pick? That's fine. Maybe they think their window is now.

nobody paying 4 yrs of 8 mill for a swap 6 yrs out that might be good or nothing my man...sure not a team that should be in tax as soon as next yr

Well Orlando is already paying 8 Million this year for Gary Harris.

Orlando would be adding 8.1 Million in 2025-2026 [Assuming they decline Gary Harris Option], 7.5 Million in 2026-2027 [~4% of salary cap] and then 7.5 Million in 2027-2028 [~4% of salary cap].

Maybe I am overvaluing the value of a swap when a team is likely to be a Top 10 team in the NBA [Orlando] compared to a team they can swap with have already been in a Championship Window for 4 years [Denver].

Teams rarely have a 10-year Championship Window.

what does cost turn into if magic in tax for those 3 yrs after this yr? not positive on penalty but know its alot..what ever they pay suggs will put them in tax next season then they pay paolo next

[Colbinii]

nobody paying 4 yrs of 8 mill for a swap 6 yrs out that might be good or nothing my man...sure not a team that should be in tax as soon as next yr

Well Orlando is already paying 8 Million this year for Gary Harris.

Orlando would be adding 8.1 Million in 2025-2026 [Assuming they decline Gary Harris Option], 7.5 Million in 2026-2027 [~4% of salary cap] and then 7.5 Million in 2027-2028 [~4% of salary cap].

Maybe I am overvaluing the value of a swap when a team is likely to be a Top 10 team in the NBA [Orlando] compared to a team they can swap with have already been in a Championship Window for 4 years [Denver].

Teams rarely have a 10-year Championship Window.

what does cost turn into if magic in tax for those 3 yrs after this yr?

It will basically be impossible for the Magic to avoid the Tax in 2026-2027. Paolo and Wagner will be on the Max while Paolo could be on the 30% max. Nnaji will be on a 2-year contract worth ~4% of the Cap annually at that point, which is basically twice a Minimum Contract. The cost to move it, at that point would be 2nd(s), if they wanted to get off the deal at that point. Now, there is a non-zero chance Nnaji does become something, but that isn't factored into this deal from my end when I came up with the value.

But, I think Orlando can easily avoid the tax next year. Cole Anthony into a teams MLE who needs a back-up PG does it.

not positive on penalty but know its alot..

Depends on the Apron Level.

what ever they pay suggs will put them in tax next season then they pay paolo next

Again, not guaranteed. I would venture to say Orlando will avoid the tax next year.

[orlando_joe]

Well Orlando is already paying 8 Million this year for Gary Harris.

Orlando would be adding 8.1 Million in 2025-2026 [Assuming they decline Gary Harris Option], 7.5 Million in 2026-2027 [~4% of salary cap] and then 7.5 Million in 2027-2028 [~4% of salary cap].

Maybe I am overvaluing the value of a swap when a team is likely to be a Top 10 team in the NBA [Orlando] compared to a team they can swap with have already been in a Championship Window for 4 years [Denver].

Teams rarely have a 10-year Championship Window.

what does cost turn into if magic in tax for those 3 yrs after this yr?

It will basically be impossible for the Magic to avoid the Tax in 2026-2027. Paolo and Wagner will be on the Max while Paolo could be on the 30% max. Nnaji will be on a 2-year contract worth ~4% of the Cap annually at that point, which is basically twice a Minimum Contract. The cost to move it, at that point would be 2nd(s), if they wanted to get off the deal at that point. Now, there is a non-zero chance Nnaji does become something, but that isn't factored into this deal from my end when I came up with the value.

But, I think Orlando can easily avoid the tax next year. Cole Anthony into a teams MLE who needs a back-up PG does it.

not positive on penalty but know its alot..

Depends on the Apron Level.

what ever they pay suggs will put them in tax next season then they pay paolo next

Again, not guaranteed. I would venture to say Orlando will avoid the tax next year.

i don't think they dump cole if he plays even at 2023 level he is worth the money...also that 8 mill next yr makes it much harder to miss tax line ..i think your right they try to miss it 1 more yr that is why they signed so many 1 yr team option contracts...and do not see any need or min for zeke and no telling what need will be next summer..is it not not like 2-4 times amount? magic like flexibility i just do not see it

[Colbinii]

what does cost turn into if magic in tax for those 3 yrs after this yr?

It will basically be impossible for the Magic to avoid the Tax in 2026-2027. Paolo and Wagner will be on the Max while Paolo could be on the 30% max. Nnaji will be on a 2-year contract worth ~4% of the Cap annually at that point, which is basically twice a Minimum Contract. The cost to move it, at that point would be 2nd(s), if they wanted to get off the deal at that point. Now, there is a non-zero chance Nnaji does become something, but that isn't factored into this deal from my end when I came up with the value.

But, I think Orlando can easily avoid the tax next year. Cole Anthony into a teams MLE who needs a back-up PG does it.

not positive on penalty but know its alot..

Depends on the Apron Level.

what ever they pay suggs will put them in tax next season then they pay paolo next

Again, not guaranteed. I would venture to say Orlando will avoid the tax next year.

i don't think they dump cole if he plays even at 2023 level he is worth the money..

Well then Orlando should be able to get an asset for Cole then. If Black/Suggs/KCP are taking the lions share of back-court minutes, they could do without Cole.

i think your right they try to miss it 1 more yr that is why they signed so many 1 yr team option contracts...

Nah, every team tries to do this. There is just no reason for Orlando to commit long-term to mediocre players like Wagner and Harris. They aren't worth a long-term commitment.

and do not see any need or min for zeke and no telling what need will be next summer..is it not not like 2-4 times amount? magic like flexibility i just do not see it

Again, the team is getting an unprotected swap 6 years from now. That has value.

Again, minimum is around 3 Million. Nnaji will be making 7.5 Million. That's around twice as much as the minimum. You still living in 2020 with your 1.8 Million as the minimum.