Nurkic back to Portland

[babyjax13]

PHX trades: Jusuf Nurkic, Bol Bol, Damion Lee, 2031 pick swap (PHX receives lower, POR receives higher)
POR trades: Robert Williams, Duop Reath, Delano Banton

Why PHX does it: Nurkic looks pretty bad. Williams gives them a center who can defend and provides some mid-post playmaking, they also turn two non-rotation players into two potential rotation players.

Why POR does it: trade Williams for a high-upside swap.

[babyjax13]

FWIW I am not sure if a 2nd or two should go back to Phoenix, or if due to Nurkic's additional year, this is fine (or maybe even an underpay). Since I have these questions I'm just *guessing* that the value is closeish.

[OutsidetheNBA]

I would do it for the Blazers as long as the swap turns into a 2nd or 2.

Less sure I'd do it for the Suns. Nurk isn't great, but he's more of a sure thing than RWIII. And Reath wouldn't hold up in the playoffs imo. Which means you're relying on RWIII to play 30+mpg for four rounds. I wouldn't bet on that. 20 minutes sure, but not 34.

[DeBlazerRiddem]

I'm curious how the community values a swap like that in theory. Yeah it could help you (or the GM hired after you) move up in a future draft but it also might amount to nothing. What range of guaranteed FRP is that swap equivalent to? Would any team give up a pick 25-30 to gamble on a higher variance asset such as a future swap like this?

I mostly ask because I don't remember an example where a swap was the main value of a trade, they usually are added for an "all in" type offer. I'm pretty risk adverse so the chance of this amounting to nothing has me looking elsewhere for a more solid offer but maybe some high risk takers would roll the dice here. I would maybe add that adding Banton and Reath is a little greedy but ultimately they aren't dealbreakers if this is truly the best we can get for RW3. (I personally think we will do better but I also have an irrational love for players like him.)

[JRoy]

PHX trades: Jusuf Nurkic, Bol Bol, Damion Lee, 2031 pick swap (PHX receives lower, POR receives higher)
POR trades: Robert Williams, Duop Reath, Delano Banton

Why PHX does it: Nurkic looks pretty bad. Williams gives them a center who can defend and provides some mid-post playmaking, they also turn two non-rotation players into two potential rotation players.

Why POR does it: trade Williams for a high-upside swap.

Pass from POR.

A swap that might or might not happen isn’t going to do it.

[OutsidetheNBA]

I'm curious how the community values a swap like that in theory. Yeah it could help you (or the GM hired after you) move up in a future draft but it also might amount to nothing. What range of guaranteed FRP is that swap equivalent to? Would any team give up a pick 25-30 to gamble on a higher variance asset such as a future swap like this?

I mostly ask because I don't remember an example where a swap was the main value of a trade, they usually are added for an "all in" type offer. I'm pretty risk adverse so the chance of this amounting to nothing has me looking elsewhere for a more solid offer but maybe some high risk takers would roll the dice here. I would maybe add that adding Banton and Reath is a little greedy but ultimately they aren't dealbreakers if this is truly the best we can get for RW3. (I personally think we will do better but I also have an irrational love for players like him.)

I value an unprotected swap quite a bit. Of course it could end up as nothing. But it could also be a Top 5 pick and top-end talent is how you build a champion.

The difference between Nurk and RWIII won't move the needle for the Blazers in the next two years, so the only question is whether you'd value the immediate asset RWIII could return versus the future swap. In another recent thread I valued RWIII as Expiring + good 2nd + back-up PG. I'd take a high-upside swap over that package (particularly if the swap turns into a 2nd or 2).

You raise a good point though -- a GM trying to keep his job might not look at it the same way as a fan. It's interesting that one of the few recent trades where a swap was a *large* part of the value was Derrick White from the Spurs to the Celtics -- two teams where the GMs have job security.

[Walton1one]

Why?

So POR dumps RW3 for a pick swap (which may\not have ANY value), takes back Nurkic (I am sure he will be thrilled) to add WITH Ayton and Clingan? All for a 31' pick swap, HARD PASS

[Pattycakes]

The Blazers have 3 centers more qualified for minutes currently than Nurkic. Terrible trade and you manage to steal Banton as well? You’re fired op

[babyjax13]

The Blazers have 3 centers more qualified for minutes currently than Nurkic. Terrible trade and you manage to steal Banton as well? You’re fired op

My only goal is to post the most controversial trade possible
But, TBH, I'd be looking at that Phoenix pick as a premium asset. Durant will be retired (or, alternatively, 43), Booker will be 35, Beal will be retired (or 38), they have no youth, they have traded every pick they can, and every pick they have not traded outright is a swap. They are all in on a team with a two year window and the outcome will likely be a multi-year extension for Booker surrounded by a team with no assets and its best players retired. It could very well be worth it for them if they win a championship, but my confidence in them to reload after this iteration of the team is really low b/c they will have so little they can trade and free agency is tougher to navigate right now. YMMV. Blazers fans want a first for Williams, I don't really think that is available, this was the closest in value to that I could think of (and the upside is extremely high).

RE: Portland's center rotation, my feelings are the same as they were at the beginning of the season ... start Clingan. If Nurkic isn't worth force-feeding minutes, that is better for the team in the short and long-term b/c it mitigates the risk of Ayton being a distraction if he still gets significant minutes. Right now he should be Portland's third string center ....

[SkyHook]

I'm curious how the community values a swap like that in theory. Yeah it could help you (or the GM hired after you) move up in a future draft but it also might amount to nothing. What range of guaranteed FRP is that swap equivalent to? Would any team give up a pick 25-30 to gamble on a higher variance asset such as a future swap like this?

I mostly ask because I don't remember an example where a swap was the main value of a trade, they usually are added for an "all in" type offer. I'm pretty risk adverse so the chance of this amounting to nothing has me looking elsewhere for a more solid offer but maybe some high risk takers would roll the dice here. I would maybe add that adding Banton and Reath is a little greedy but ultimately they aren't dealbreakers if this is truly the best we can get for RW3. (I personally think we will do better but I also have an irrational love for players like him.)

Swaps are fine as ancillary added value in a bigger trade, but mean little as the centerpiece.

"Out of 31 times through the 2022 draft that a team could have swapped a first-rounder, it did so on only 12 occasions. That means in 61 percent of the league’s possible swaps to date, the swap ended up being worth nothing."

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2022/10/12/23399637/nba-draft-swap-picks

[babyjax13]

I'm curious how the community values a swap like that in theory. Yeah it could help you (or the GM hired after you) move up in a future draft but it also might amount to nothing. What range of guaranteed FRP is that swap equivalent to? Would any team give up a pick 25-30 to gamble on a higher variance asset such as a future swap like this?

I mostly ask because I don't remember an example where a swap was the main value of a trade, they usually are added for an "all in" type offer. I'm pretty risk adverse so the chance of this amounting to nothing has me looking elsewhere for a more solid offer but maybe some high risk takers would roll the dice here. I would maybe add that adding Banton and Reath is a little greedy but ultimately they aren't dealbreakers if this is truly the best we can get for RW3. (I personally think we will do better but I also have an irrational love for players like him.)

Swaps are fine as ancillary added value in a bigger trade, but mean little as the centerpiece.

"Out of 31 times through the 2022 draft that a team could have swapped a first-rounder, it did so on only 12 occasions. That means in 61 percent of the league’s possible swaps to date, the swap ended up being worth nothing."

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2022/10/12/23399637/nba-draft-swap-picks

TBH I don't think the history of which swaps have happened really matters. Pretty clearly teams add them as potential extra value when it is clear the swap is unlikely, e.g., Utah likely won't be exercising any of its swap options in 2026 or 2028. The question really should be about the odds you place on a particular swap happening, and also having significant value.

[Texas Chuck]

I value any pick with unlimited upside variance high. And a pick from the Suns past KD/Booker with them having been a 2nd apron team for years and having moved all their other assets? Can't really see a strong argument for assigning no value to a swap for that pick even if Portland somehow manages to be worse than a Suns team coming off all that....

But hate the idea of giving up that kind of upside variance for a player who might be a better fit than the current guy, but who you know is going to miss a bunch of games and that happens come playoff time, you've paid for the right to be in worse shape than now.

I see some posters feeling like Williams is going to return a good asset. I will eat major crow if that happens. The only way I can see even a heavily protected first is if it comes from a team with plenty of assets. Can't see a team like Phoenix make this their last move. He's just not dependable. You can go get a Clint Capela at that point and maybe he's not quite the defender, he will play, protect the rim, rebound, and rim run for you.

[Texas Chuck]

The Blazers have 3 centers more qualified for minutes currently than Nurkic. Terrible trade and you manage to steal Banton as well? You’re fired op

Please leave lines last you're fired OP out of your posts in the future. Be as hard as you want on the idea. But no need to direct personal comments towards the poster. You've done this 3 or 4 times in the past couple days.

Thanks!

Chuck

[OutsidetheNBA]

I'm curious how the community values a swap like that in theory. Yeah it could help you (or the GM hired after you) move up in a future draft but it also might amount to nothing. What range of guaranteed FRP is that swap equivalent to? Would any team give up a pick 25-30 to gamble on a higher variance asset such as a future swap like this?

I mostly ask because I don't remember an example where a swap was the main value of a trade, they usually are added for an "all in" type offer. I'm pretty risk adverse so the chance of this amounting to nothing has me looking elsewhere for a more solid offer but maybe some high risk takers would roll the dice here. I would maybe add that adding Banton and Reath is a little greedy but ultimately they aren't dealbreakers if this is truly the best we can get for RW3. (I personally think we will do better but I also have an irrational love for players like him.)

Swaps are fine as ancillary added value in a bigger trade, but mean little as the centerpiece.

"Out of 31 times through the 2022 draft that a team could have swapped a first-rounder, it did so on only 12 occasions. That means in 61 percent of the league’s possible swaps to date, the swap ended up being worth nothing."

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2022/10/12/23399637/nba-draft-swap-picks

That's an interesting article. I disagree with how they value swaps. For instance a swap from the 18th pick to the 5th pick is valued as the 16th overall pick. That seems wrong. I don't think you can trade 18+16 for 5, at least not in recent drafts. More examples: 23 to 9 as the 19th pick; 11 to 6 as the 29th pick; 5 to 3 as the 30th pick.

More broadly, I get that swaps are "ancillary value in a bigger trade," but this is a rebuilding team swapping an oft-injured rim-running Center on a good contract for a lower-ceiling center on an expiring but slightly worse contract. The relevant comparison is what RWIII could fetch in, say, next year's draft against the upside, median, and downside outcomes of a '31 swap. In that context I like the '31 swap.

[SkyHook]

I'm curious how the community values a swap like that in theory. Yeah it could help you (or the GM hired after you) move up in a future draft but it also might amount to nothing. What range of guaranteed FRP is that swap equivalent to? Would any team give up a pick 25-30 to gamble on a higher variance asset such as a future swap like this?

I mostly ask because I don't remember an example where a swap was the main value of a trade, they usually are added for an "all in" type offer. I'm pretty risk adverse so the chance of this amounting to nothing has me looking elsewhere for a more solid offer but maybe some high risk takers would roll the dice here. I would maybe add that adding Banton and Reath is a little greedy but ultimately they aren't dealbreakers if this is truly the best we can get for RW3. (I personally think we will do better but I also have an irrational love for players like him.)

Swaps are fine as ancillary added value in a bigger trade, but mean little as the centerpiece.

"Out of 31 times through the 2022 draft that a team could have swapped a first-rounder, it did so on only 12 occasions. That means in 61 percent of the league’s possible swaps to date, the swap ended up being worth nothing."

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2022/10/12/23399637/nba-draft-swap-picks

TBH I don't think the history of which swaps have happened really matters. Pretty clearly teams add them as potential extra value when it is clear the swap is unlikely, e.g., Utah likely won't be exercising any of its swap options in 2026 or 2028. The question really should be about the odds you place on a particular swap happening, and also having significant value.

While it's true that “past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results”, it does provide context as to how often that swaps provide any value and, when they do, how meager that value is. Only twice in those 31 did it result in a move from a non-lottery pick to a lottery one, the Celtics/Nets swap in 2017 being the one of real significance. By the methodology he used in the article, a swap is worth on average the 36th pick in the draft. We can question the formula, but it's as good a starting point as any for the discussion of worth.

Should the Blazers make that deal for a primary return of what amounts a high SRP? I wouldn't.

[SkyHook]

I value any pick with unlimited upside variance high. And a pick from the Suns past KD/Booker with them having been a 2nd apron team for years and having moved all their other assets? Can't really see a strong argument for assigning no value to a swap for that pick even if Portland somehow manages to be worse than a Suns team coming off all that....

But hate the idea of giving up that kind of upside variance for a player who might be a better fit than the current guy, but who you know is going to miss a bunch of games and that happens come playoff time, you've paid for the right to be in worse shape than now.

I see some posters feeling like Williams is going to return a good asset. I will eat major crow if that happens. The only way I can see even a heavily protected first is if it comes from a team with plenty of assets. Can't see a team like Phoenix make this their last move. He's just not dependable. You can go get a Clint Capela at that point and maybe he's not quite the defender, he will play, protect the rim, rebound, and rim run for you.

I wouldn't say "no value", just trying to recognize the expected value for what it typically is. Of course the risk vs reward is individual based upon the situation and the parties doing the assessment. Swaps are fine for what they are.

[babyjax13]

Swaps are fine as ancillary added value in a bigger trade, but mean little as the centerpiece.

"Out of 31 times through the 2022 draft that a team could have swapped a first-rounder, it did so on only 12 occasions. That means in 61 percent of the league’s possible swaps to date, the swap ended up being worth nothing."

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2022/10/12/23399637/nba-draft-swap-picks

TBH I don't think the history of which swaps have happened really matters. Pretty clearly teams add them as potential extra value when it is clear the swap is unlikely, e.g., Utah likely won't be exercising any of its swap options in 2026 or 2028. The question really should be about the odds you place on a particular swap happening, and also having significant value.

While it's true that “past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results”, it does provide context as to how often that swaps provide any value and, when they do, how meager that value is. Only twice in those 31 did it result in a move from a non-lottery pick to a lottery one, the Celtics/Nets swap in 2017 being the one of real significance. By the methodology he used in the article, a swap is worth on average the 36th pick in the draft. We can question the formula, but it's as good a starting point as any for the discussion of worth.

Should the Blazers make that deal for a primary return of what amounts a high SRP? I wouldn't.

I guess a similar question: would you trade the 36th pick for that swap if you were Portland? I would. What about the 31st? Again, I would. What about the 31st and 36th picks? Again, I would. A late first gets a little harder ... likely, if I had multiple picks I trade anything at 25 or below for that swap, but I'd understand opting for the immediate return.

[Pattycakes]

The Blazers have 3 centers more qualified for minutes currently than Nurkic. Terrible trade and you manage to steal Banton as well? You’re fired op

Please leave lines last you're fired OP out of your posts in the future. Be as hard as you want on the idea. But no need to direct personal comments towards the poster. You've done this 3 or 4 times in the past couple days.

Thanks!

Chuck

You are kidding me right? I’ve read 10+ years of actual heinous posts on this website and you’re warning me over that? Don’t worry I’ll just leave this depressing suddenly woke place

[Texas Chuck]

I simply asked you nicely to direct your comments towards the post and not the poster. No warnings issued. Just a reminder. No idea what is woke about that, but yeah if you feel that upset, move along. That kind of posting certainly won't be missed.

[hcsilla]

I'm not sure at all that Williams is more valauable than Nurkic. If he is, the difference is way lower than a future 1st rounder swap given the uncertainity of Phoenix's future in 2031. Therefore POR does this trade in a heartbeat and the Suns refuse it even quicker.

Among the realistic center targets Kessler is the only one who I might consider trading some kind of combination of future 1st rounders/swaps for.