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Throwing this hypothetical trade out there for input

Heat get Trae Young, Wiggins, Walters and GSW 2026 FRP

Warriors get Butler

Hawks get Rozier, Kuminga, Melton and GSW 2028 FRP

Why?

The Heat are heading towards a soft reset to align more with Bam’s timeline. This deal brings them a dynamic scorer in Young and could help facilitate for Bam and Herro. Wiggins provides an athletic 3 and D wing to help cover for the backcourt of Herro and Young and defensive liabilities. They also get a 2026 FRP that can help free up other picks to trade for a forward to play next to Bam.

GSW push their chips in to pair Butler with Curry. Butler seems to be the likely next star to become available and would fit well their core. They give up two FRP. One for Butler and other to offset the remaining years on Wiggins contract. They keep their other young core of Moody, BP, etc.

Atlanta also does a soft reset here. They get Rozier who can help with scoring from the backcourt. They also get Kuminga as another young wing that can fit with their young core and Melton as a 13 million expiring. They add a 2028 FRP in the process to help restock for the future.

Thoughts?


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This seems waaaaaaay too good for Miami.

It seems to assume that Butler has more value than Trae, which I don't think many people outside of Florida would agree with.

Think you'd have to start with both picks going to Atlanta. Maybe another from Miami to them as well, or keep Wiggins in Atlanta, he's certainly more valuable than Rozier.

Butler to GS portion seems reasonable, though I'd expect haggling over the picks.

gswhoops wrote:This seems waaaaaaay too good for Miami.

It seems to assume that Butler has more value than Trae, which I don't think many people outside of Florida would agree with.

I will be completely honest I am not entirely sure of Young’s current value. Atlanta put him on the block this past offseason and reports were that there were bad offers. Not sure how much his market has changed. They ended up dealing Murray for two firsts and Daniels. To me this deal offers part of that with Kuminga and the future first. I would imagine that Butler value to Warriors has to be relatively high to complete in a tough western conference for Curry.


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Given Butler's age, health and contract I can't imagine GS going higher than Wiggins, Kunminga, ECs and a disaster-protected 2025 1st for Butler and a couple cheap guys for roster spot matching. Adding in a rebuilding era 1st (such as 2028) isn't happening. Butler just doesn't have that kind of value.

ThaFranchize84 wrote:

gswhoops wrote:This seems waaaaaaay too good for Miami.

It seems to assume that Butler has more value than Trae, which I don't think many people outside of Florida would agree with.

I will be completely honest I am not entirely sure of Young’s current value. Atlanta put him on the block this past offseason and reports were that there were bad offers. Not sure how much his market has changed. They ended up dealing Murray for two firsts and Daniels. To me this deal offers part of that with Kuminga and the future first. I would imagine that Butler value to Warriors has to be relatively high to complete in a tough western conference for Curry.

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Hawks just paid Jalen Johnson 5yrs/$150 mil to be their starting PF, the same position than Kuminga plays who was reportedly looking for 5yr/$175 million and Hawks have placed a higher value on Trae than Murray and moving him leaves them without a PG.
And Miami is making out quite nicely for an aging Butler.
Hawks pass.

ThaFranchize84 wrote:

gswhoops wrote:This seems waaaaaaay too good for Miami.

It seems to assume that Butler has more value than Trae, which I don't think many people outside of Florida would agree with.

I will be completely honest I am not entirely sure of Young’s current value. Atlanta put him on the block this past offseason and reports were that there were bad offers. Not sure how much his market has changed. They ended up dealing Murray for two firsts and Daniels. To me this deal offers part of that with Kuminga and the future first. I would imagine that Butler value to Warriors has to be relatively high to complete in a tough western conference for Curry.


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I agree that both Trae and Jimmy are tough to value. OTOH, Trae is young, a terrible offensive engine, locked into the first max. This player should be valuable. But he's not really an elite scorer, he's tragic defensively. His effort could be fixed, but hasn't over a long time now, and his size can't.

Jimmy has those big playoff moments we all have seen. But he's also an unusual fit with him attacking mostly within the arc. Fits great with Steph. Fits less great with Draymond and a center. And he's older and he's well been not always a happy camper--even when his team is winning.

I want to say that Trae has more value, but I would agree for GSW(or any other contender looking for a final piece) that Jimmy probably is a better target. And final pieces to contenders should be more valuable than a guy who raises a floor somewhat, so maybe Jimmy is worth more?

Either way I don't see the difference being getting to upgrade Rozier to Wiggins and get an unprotected 1st which is where you valued them.

jayu70 wrote:

ThaFranchize84 wrote:

gswhoops wrote:This seems waaaaaaay too good for Miami.

It seems to assume that Butler has more value than Trae, which I don't think many people outside of Florida would agree with.

I will be completely honest I am not entirely sure of Young’s current value. Atlanta put him on the block this past offseason and reports were that there were bad offers. Not sure how much his market has changed. They ended up dealing Murray for two firsts and Daniels. To me this deal offers part of that with Kuminga and the future first. I would imagine that Butler value to Warriors has to be relatively high to complete in a tough western conference for Curry.

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Hawks just paid Jalen Johnson 5yrs/$150 mil to be their starting PF, the same position than Kuminga plays who was reportedly looking for 5yr/$175 million and Hawks have placed a higher value on Trae than Murray and moving him leaves them without a PG.
And Miami is making out quite nicely for an aging Butler.
Hawks pass.

Yeah it doesn't really work for Atlanta fit-wise. Kunminga's mostly a PF for GS. With more of a stretch big in the mix he could be a SF on a different roster. Still it looks like Daniels, Richlear (sp?) and Johnson are the long-term starting SG/SF/PF for the Hawks. A young or youngish long-term starter as the return in a Trae deal would make most sense either as a replacement PG or perhaps a center (OO is there but kind of meh).

I'd also expect Young was on the block last summer due to how bad Young and Murray were together. There was major negative synergy between them so one had to go.

I don't thin Butler has anywhere near this value any more. His age, missed games all now count against him. I'm not sure I do Wiggins and a pick for him

Pipp33 wrote:I don't thin Butler has anywhere near this value any more. His age, missed games all now count against him. I'm not sure I do Wiggins and a pick for him

Agreed.

Very Heat-centric worldview here…

GSW overpays (Wiggins is a lot better than “filler”)

And, ATL just gets sodomized

JImmy BUtler does not have anywhere near this value. Mia will not get valuable players and a pick for him

Butler would always have been a bad fit for the Warriors in terms of offensive fit and team chemistry. And even without the picks, the Warriors can’t give up three players and take only one back. There would have to be enough cap space coming back to allow them to sign a couple FA players, which isn’t the case here. The Warriors say no rather quickly, as do the Hawks.

Skybox wrote:Very Heat-centric worldview here…

GSW overpays (Wiggins is a lot better than “filler”)

And, ATL just gets sodomized

I believe this offer even suggests we're giving up a first to get rid of Wiggins. I agree 100%; if you tell me I can upgrade Wiggins to Butler for the cost of Kuminga and 2 firsts, I have trouble convincing myself that's a good idea.

The value is off here. Miami should be the one giving two first round picks and Atlanta should be getting them. You could argue that golden state owes a first but even that should be going to Atlanta.

OP is not thinking fairly when it comes to value.

Understood. Appreciate everyone’s feedback.


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