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Miami - Detroit

Posted: Sat Dec 21, 2024 2:49 am
by Godaddycurse
Miami trade: Robinson, Jovic
Detroit trade: Fontecchio (or beasley?)

Why for Detroit: use up their capspace to acquire a prospect
Why for Miami: duck the tax

add 2nd(s) as needed

Re: Miami - Detroit

Posted: Sat Dec 21, 2024 10:06 am
by Mr Peanut
Pistons would be unlikely to trade Beasley as he's been an absolute sniper for us this season, but would definitely do this for Fontecchio (who has been underwhelming this year). Robinson gives us more perimeter shooting and I like Jovic's potential. Probably the best (and most realistic) way I could see us using our cap would be a trade like this.

Re: Miami - Detroit

Posted: Sat Dec 21, 2024 10:39 am
by BBallFreak
There is no way in hell Miami does this. What a terrible deal for us. It treats Robinson like he's a negative value deal just to steal Jovic from us. Easy pass

Rozier instead of Robinson, then we can talk.

Re: Miami - Detroit

Posted: Sat Dec 21, 2024 11:09 am
by _GH0ST_
There is no priority right now to get below tax. Even if it is, this is a very bad trade for Miami. Robinson is already better than Fontecchio and adding Jovic makes it worse.

Why do Detroit a favor when we can get DFS or Johnson and get rid of the tax if we add a few more incentives to this package?

Re: Miami - Detroit

Posted: Sat Dec 21, 2024 12:38 pm
by Godaddycurse
_GH0ST_ wrote:There is no priority right now to get below tax. Even if it is, this is a very bad trade for Miami. Robinson is already better than Fontecchio and adding Jovic makes it worse.

Why do Detroit a favor when we can get DFS or Johnson and get rid of the tax if we add a few more incentives to this package?


Dfs or johnson will cost you a pick or 2 when you are already low on picks to begin with

Re: Miami - Detroit

Posted: Sat Dec 21, 2024 1:07 pm
by _GH0ST_
Godaddycurse wrote:
_GH0ST_ wrote:There is no priority right now to get below tax. Even if it is, this is a very bad trade for Miami. Robinson is already better than Fontecchio and adding Jovic makes it worse.

Why do Detroit a favor when we can get DFS or Johnson and get rid of the tax if we add a few more incentives to this package?


Dfs or johnson will cost you a pick or 2 when you are already low on picks to begin with

People were considering Schroder as a FRP but he got traded for 2 seconds and a injured filler lol Robinson's next season isn't entirely guaranteed and Jovic is still a 21-year-old rookie. I think it's not hard to make this trade by adding small incentives. Fontecchio and his contract can stay with the Pistons.

Re: Miami - Detroit

Posted: Sat Dec 21, 2024 1:47 pm
by Godaddycurse
_GH0ST_ wrote:
Godaddycurse wrote:
_GH0ST_ wrote:There is no priority right now to get below tax. Even if it is, this is a very bad trade for Miami. Robinson is already better than Fontecchio and adding Jovic makes it worse.

Why do Detroit a favor when we can get DFS or Johnson and get rid of the tax if we add a few more incentives to this package?


Dfs or johnson will cost you a pick or 2 when you are already low on picks to begin with

People were considering Schroder as a FRP but he got traded for 2 seconds and a injured filler lol Robinson's next season isn't entirely guaranteed and Jovic is still a 21-year-old rookie. I think it's not hard to make this trade by adding small incentives. Fontecchio and his contract can stay with the Pistons.


melton was an expiring filler. Robinson is a negative filler and trade involving him or rozier will cost more

Re: Miami - Detroit

Posted: Sat Dec 21, 2024 1:57 pm
by _GH0ST_
Godaddycurse wrote:
_GH0ST_ wrote:
Godaddycurse wrote:
Dfs or johnson will cost you a pick or 2 when you are already low on picks to begin with

People were considering Schroder as a FRP but he got traded for 2 seconds and a injured filler lol Robinson's next season isn't entirely guaranteed and Jovic is still a 21-year-old rookie. I think it's not hard to make this trade by adding small incentives. Fontecchio and his contract can stay with the Pistons.

Robinson's only guaranteed $9 million next season and he is a better player than Fontecchio. The only negative asset here is Fontecchio. Spoelstra is getting the most out of him and we love him.

Re: Miami - Detroit

Posted: Sat Dec 21, 2024 2:11 pm
by Godaddycurse
_GH0ST_ wrote:
Godaddycurse wrote:
_GH0ST_ wrote:People were considering Schroder as a FRP but he got traded for 2 seconds and a injured filler lol Robinson's next season isn't entirely guaranteed and Jovic is still a 21-year-old rookie. I think it's not hard to make this trade by adding small incentives. Fontecchio and his contract can stay with the Pistons.

Robinson's only guaranteed $9 million next season and he is a better player than Fontecchio. The only negative asset here is Fontecchio. Spoelstra is getting the most out of him and we love him.

Robinson is guaranteed 10M next year, 20 if he is kept. He is probably a slightly better player than Fontecchio but unfortunately makes 2.5x more. The real value here is ducking the tax and partaking in revenue sharing

you save upwards of 25-30M between revenue sharing and money saved this and next year, which is worth close to a late 1st

Re: Miami - Detroit

Posted: Sat Dec 21, 2024 2:34 pm
by _GH0ST_
Godaddycurse wrote:
_GH0ST_ wrote:
Godaddycurse wrote:

Robinson's only guaranteed $9 million next season and he is a better player than Fontecchio. The only negative asset here is Fontecchio. Spoelstra is getting the most out of him and we love him.

Robinson is guaranteed 10M next year, 20 if he is kept. He is probably a slightly better player than Fontecchio but unfortunately makes 2.5x more. The real value here is ducking the tax and partaking in revenue sharing

you save upwards of 25-30M between revenue sharing and money saved this and next year, which is worth close to a late 1st

He is guaranteed $9.8 million next season and Fontecchio will earn 8.3 million next season. A difference of $1.5 million cannot have such a large bill. If I'm making a trade like this, I either need to get a player that I can use in rotation or it needs to be an expiring contract. Fontecchio is neither and is clearly a negative value. I wouldn't trade him even without Jovic. Miami will be under the tax anyway after trading Butler. There is no need for such bad trades.

Re: Miami - Detroit

Posted: Sat Dec 21, 2024 2:43 pm
by Godaddycurse
_GH0ST_ wrote:
Godaddycurse wrote:
_GH0ST_ wrote:Robinson's only guaranteed $9 million next season and he is a better player than Fontecchio. The only negative asset here is Fontecchio. Spoelstra is getting the most out of him and we love him.

Robinson is guaranteed 10M next year, 20 if he is kept. He is probably a slightly better player than Fontecchio but unfortunately makes 2.5x more. The real value here is ducking the tax and partaking in revenue sharing

you save upwards of 25-30M between revenue sharing and money saved this and next year, which is worth close to a late 1st

He is guaranteed $9.8 million next season and Fontecchio will earn 8.3 million next season. A difference of $1.5 million cannot have such a large bill. If I'm making a trade like this, I either need to get a player that I can use in rotation or it needs to be an expiring contract. Fontecchio is neither and is clearly a negative value. I wouldn't trade him even without Jovic. Miami will be under the tax anyway after trading Butler. There is no need for such bad trades.


Robinson makes about 12M more this year than fontecchio, prorated = about 7-8M saved => 10+M from luxury tax
Robinson makes 1.5M more than Fontecchio next year, + min filler salary = 3.5M saved
revenue sharing is probably over 10M if its similar to las year

I dont think the trade impacts the Heat's chances of winning this year. Its more so to help them duck the tax this and next year to reset repeater penalties

Re: Miami - Detroit

Posted: Sat Dec 21, 2024 2:47 pm
by Texas Chuck
I've long been a Duncan Robinson guy. But agree with GoDaddy that there is value to be had in a swap for Fontecchio potentially. Not sure where Jovic is in the minds of the Heat these days, but probably agree with Heat fans I wouldn't give up on him to make that swap.

But if Miami has several 2nds, I still think its not terrible if Detroit doesn't have a better deal lined up. Robinson really helps space for their young core and they pick up some more trade ballast. Miami gets a financial windfall and gains some flexibility for next season.

Re: Miami - Detroit

Posted: Sat Dec 21, 2024 2:55 pm
by _GH0ST_
Godaddycurse wrote:
_GH0ST_ wrote:
Godaddycurse wrote:Robinson is guaranteed 10M next year, 20 if he is kept. He is probably a slightly better player than Fontecchio but unfortunately makes 2.5x more. The real value here is ducking the tax and partaking in revenue sharing

you save upwards of 25-30M between revenue sharing and money saved this and next year, which is worth close to a late 1st

He is guaranteed $9.8 million next season and Fontecchio will earn 8.3 million next season. A difference of $1.5 million cannot have such a large bill. If I'm making a trade like this, I either need to get a player that I can use in rotation or it needs to be an expiring contract. Fontecchio is neither and is clearly a negative value. I wouldn't trade him even without Jovic. Miami will be under the tax anyway after trading Butler. There is no need for such bad trades.


Robinson makes about 12M more this year than fontecchio, prorated = about 7-8M saved => 10+M from luxury tax
Robinson makes 1.5M more than Fontecchio next year, + min filler salary = 3.5M saved
revenue sharing is probably over 10M if its similar to las year

I dont think the trade impacts the Heat's chances of winning this year. Its more so to help them duck the tax this and next year to reset repeater penalties

I don't deny that this trade could help the tax a bit, but as I said, unless it's a rotation player or an expiring contract, it's not a good trade. Ownership doesn't mind paying the tax as long as Butler stays, and they could get under the tax with a Butler trade. If Butler stays, Miami would probably want to get a better player and get under the tax.

Re: Miami - Detroit

Posted: Sat Dec 21, 2024 3:16 pm
by BBallFreak
Texas Chuck wrote:I've long been a Duncan Robinson guy. But agree with GoDaddy that there is value to be had in a swap for Fontecchio potentially.


We disagree. Robinson is essential to what we do. He and Herro make our offense work. Trading him for this would be a terrible move for Miami. Rozier, on the other hand, would be worth getting off of. Robinson is a bargain.

Re: Miami - Detroit

Posted: Sat Dec 21, 2024 3:27 pm
by jbk1234
_GH0ST_ wrote:
Godaddycurse wrote:
_GH0ST_ wrote:People were considering Schroder as a FRP but he got traded for 2 seconds and a injured filler lol Robinson's next season isn't entirely guaranteed and Jovic is still a 21-year-old rookie. I think it's not hard to make this trade by adding small incentives. Fontecchio and his contract can stay with the Pistons.

Robinson's only guaranteed $9 million next season and he is a better player than Fontecchio. The only negative asset here is Fontecchio. Spoelstra is getting the most out of him and we love him.


Unless a team is comfortable paying Robinson's full salary, he's negative. I'd argue that Robinson on his full salary is less negative than $10M in dead space which is clearly negative. That's the problem with guarantees that large.

Re: Miami - Detroit

Posted: Sat Dec 21, 2024 3:46 pm
by Kalamazoo317
Jovic would be fun to take a shot on and we could use a backup ballhandler, which Rozier would qualify as. We'd have to throw in Wendell Moore to make the money work. That's a pretty big cap hit on a really diminished player in Rozier, though, so I'm not sure the value is quite there.

Re: Miami - Detroit

Posted: Sat Dec 21, 2024 3:53 pm
by _GH0ST_
jbk1234 wrote:
_GH0ST_ wrote:
Godaddycurse wrote:

Robinson's only guaranteed $9 million next season and he is a better player than Fontecchio. The only negative asset here is Fontecchio. Spoelstra is getting the most out of him and we love him.


Unless a team is comfortable paying Robinson's full salary, he's negative. I'd argue that Robinson on his full salary is less negative than $10M in dead space which is clearly negative. That's the problem with guarantees that large.

I don't agree. If he is positive for us, I don't really care how the rest of them look at him. He is a useful player for us and that's what matters.

Re: Miami - Detroit

Posted: Sat Dec 21, 2024 3:54 pm
by Godaddycurse
_GH0ST_ wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:
_GH0ST_ wrote:Robinson's only guaranteed $9 million next season and he is a better player than Fontecchio. The only negative asset here is Fontecchio. Spoelstra is getting the most out of him and we love him.


Unless a team is comfortable paying Robinson's full salary, he's negative. I'd argue that Robinson on his full salary is less negative than $10M in dead space which is clearly negative. That's the problem with guarantees that large.

I don't agree. If he is positive for us, I don't really care how the rest of them look at him. He is a useful player for us and that's what matters.


he's useful for you but having him or losing him won't make a difference imo. you would still be a play-in team either way and likely booked for an early playoff exit depending on if jimmy goes nuclear or not. Better to reset the tax for the next team built around herro/bam

Re: Miami - Detroit

Posted: Sat Dec 21, 2024 4:01 pm
by Texas Chuck
yeah I'm with GoDaddy. I understand that Miami uses his movement and spacing In how they run their offense. But I don't think their end result changes significantly by replacing him. I mean what difference could it make at this point? One win over the remainder of the season. .5 wins? Not much. Very very few players move your expected win total much.

Now if Miami is looking to bolster their roster, sure keep Robinson and go for it. But with the Butler situation what it is I'd be surprised if they bought big.

But if you want to sell me on moving Rozier instead. Of course. I've never understood his appeal at all.

Re: Miami - Detroit

Posted: Sat Dec 21, 2024 4:04 pm
by _GH0ST_
Godaddycurse wrote:
_GH0ST_ wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:
Unless a team is comfortable paying Robinson's full salary, he's negative. I'd argue that Robinson on his full salary is less negative than $10M in dead space which is clearly negative. That's the problem with guarantees that large.

I don't agree. If he is positive for us, I don't really care how the rest of them look at him. He is a useful player for us and that's what matters.


he's useful for you but having him or losing him won't make a difference imo. you would still be a play-in team either way and likely booked for an early playoff exit depending on if jimmy goes nuclear or not. Better to reset the tax for the next team built around herro/bam

There wouldn't be much upside to trading Butler. We don't have the assets to trade for another superstar. I don't think a new team built around Herro and Bam would be any better than the current one. Right now, I think the best thing to do is blow it up.