RealGM

Preface: Heat would prefer not to risk facing Butler in the EC, so his market favors the West. Of all the WC playoff seeds 1-10, only the 2-seed Rockets lack a go-to scorer who can dominate in closing time against a playoff defense. Hometown hero Jimmy Butler has carried Miami to the Finals twice and ECF once. He is the same age as LeBron when James won his last title.

Rockets trade Dillon Brooks, Steven Adams, Jock Landale, Jae'Sean Tate, Cam Whitmore, 2025 Suns 1st for Jimmy Butler + Nick Richards

Heat trade Jimmy Butler for Dillon Brooks, Cody Martin, Steven Adams, returned Heat 1st via Charlotte (2027 lottery-protected, 2028 unprotected).

Per Pat Riley's public statements, Heat take back no bad money. They acquire depth at wing and add 2 Heat culture guys (Brooks, Martin) plus a bruiser at C2 in Adams (expiring contract). This depth will insure their playoff run so that they reach the playoffs with their 2025 1st conveying to the Thunder.

Through this trade the Heat avert losing unprotected firsts in 2026 and 2028. They duck the tax next season and regain control of 4 tradeable Heat 1sts for a longterm upgrade to Butler.

Hornets trade Cody Martin, Nick Richards, Heat 2027 lottery-protected 1st (unprotected 2028) for 2025 Suns 1st, Cam Whitmore, Jock Landale, Jae'Sean Tate.

Hornets speed up their rebuild swapping a 2027-2028 1st for a 2025 1st, add a prospect, add a stretch big, having plenty of rim protection in place with starter Mark Williams and C3 Moussa Diabeté.

Charlotte stealing a lot of value without contributing much

Sent from my SM-A156U using RealGM mobile app

Texas Chuck wrote:Charlotte stealing a lot of value without contributing much

Sent from my SM-A156U using RealGM mobile app

I don't know... that Heat first coming back to Miami is doing A LOT of work. If Hornets don't play ball, they might luck out and Heat could bottom out, making that pick valuable. OTOH if someone else steps in, that pick could be meh.

nykballa2k4 wrote:

Texas Chuck wrote:Charlotte stealing a lot of value without contributing much

Sent from my SM-A156U using RealGM mobile app

I don't know... that Heat first coming back to Miami is doing A LOT of work. If Hornets don't play ball, they might luck out and Heat could bottom out, making that pick valuable. OTOH if someone else steps in, that pick could be meh.

The key for the Heat is here, and I believe the Heat thus value their own pick higher than any other team.

Through this trade the Heat avert losing unprotected firsts in 2026 and 2028. They duck the tax next season and regain control of 4 tradeable Heat 1sts for a longterm upgrade to Butler.

i am not trading that miami 1st... i don't expect the Suns pick to be lottery when the season is up

HornetJail wrote:i am not trading that miami 1st... i don't expect the Suns pick to be lottery when the season is up

Even if the Suns pick conveys outside the lottery, we are turning the Heat 1st into a mid-first plus Cam Whitmore, while adding Jock Landale in place of Nick Richards. Whitmore takes the place of Cody Martin. We end up with a better-fitting roster and the ability to bundle 1st round picks in 2025 to move up and get a player we really covet should we fall in the lottery.

Best case scenario that Heat 1st in 2028 unprotected is a high lottery player. But I wouldn't surrender a known commodity in our attainable draft range now, banking on getting some better prospect 3 years from now.

You are clinging way too hard to the Heat 1st. It's worth more to Miami than to Charlotte, so you sell in that scenario, given your assessment of the 2025 draft of course. And you get more immediate help to lift the team out of perpetual tanking.

And you still have 4 tradeable Hornets firsts after the 2025 draft, plus the Mavs 2027 1st top-2 protected for upgrades.

Is the next star available in the next 3 years leading up to 2028 going to command more than 5 first round draft picks? No. Then you don't need to keep the Heat 1st in hopes of competing for that star, or for the next best player after him.

The Heat would be using this same rationale. They downgrade Butler but free up flexibility to bundle 4 tradeable 1sts for the next star replacement.

MasterIchiro wrote:

nykballa2k4 wrote:

Texas Chuck wrote:Charlotte stealing a lot of value without contributing much

Sent from my SM-A156U using RealGM mobile app

I don't know... that Heat first coming back to Miami is doing A LOT of work. If Hornets don't play ball, they might luck out and Heat could bottom out, making that pick valuable. OTOH if someone else steps in, that pick could be meh.

The key for the Heat is here, and I believe the Heat thus value their own pick higher than any other team.

Through this trade the Heat avert losing unprotected firsts in 2026 and 2028. They duck the tax next season and regain control of 4 tradeable Heat 1sts for a longterm upgrade to Butler.

It's close. The Suns are imploding a bit. It's too late for the Heat to tank this season and end up in the top 3 without lottery luck. Ending up with a late lottery pick because they lose a play-in game without Butler is worse case scenario.

jbk1234 wrote:

MasterIchiro wrote:

nykballa2k4 wrote:
I don't know... that Heat first coming back to Miami is doing A LOT of work. If Hornets don't play ball, they might luck out and Heat could bottom out, making that pick valuable. OTOH if someone else steps in, that pick could be meh.

The key for the Heat is here, and I believe the Heat thus value their own pick higher than any other team.

Through this trade the Heat avert losing unprotected firsts in 2026 and 2028. They duck the tax next season and regain control of 4 tradeable Heat 1sts for a longterm upgrade to Butler.

It's close. The Suns are imploding a bit. It's too late for the Heat to tank this season and end up in the top 3 without lottery luck. Ending up with a late lottery pick because they lose a play-in game without Butler is worse case scenario.

The kicker is Jimmy has the most massive contract on the move but this trade changes the Rockets budget by 1K.

It's almost like his agency accountants analyze team budgets and identify a landing spot before the plane ever takes flight.

MasterIchiro wrote:

jbk1234 wrote:

MasterIchiro wrote:
The key for the Heat is here, and I believe the Heat thus value their own pick higher than any other team.

It's close. The Suns are imploding a bit. It's too late for the Heat to tank this season and end up in the top 3 without lottery luck. Ending up with a late lottery pick because they lose a play-in game without Butler is worse case scenario.

The kicker is Jimmy has the most massive contract on the move but this trade changes the Rockets budget by 1K.

It's almost like his agency accountants analyze team budgets and identify a landing spot before the plane ever takes flight.

Where the rubber meets the road on Butler's evaluation is his expectation that he's owed another $100M at 37 and 38 years of age. Normally, you trade for that guy as a rental, but who wants to rent a player that set fire to the last 4 organizations he played for and might make you the 5th.

Speaking of Rocket Man, I think it's gonna be a long, long time before Stone answers the phone again if Riley calls offering that trade.

I love Jimmy Butler as a player, but getting in long-term business with him seems like an idea bound to have complications. I would take a one year flyer on Butler, but not at the price of valuable assets.

jbk1234 wrote:

MasterIchiro wrote:

jbk1234 wrote:
It's close. The Suns are imploding a bit. It's too late for the Heat to tank this season and end up in the top 3 without lottery luck. Ending up with a late lottery pick because they lose a play-in game without Butler is worse case scenario.

The kicker is Jimmy has the most massive contract on the move but this trade changes the Rockets budget by 1K.

It's almost like his agency accountants analyze team budgets and identify a landing spot before the plane ever takes flight.

Where the rubber meets the road on Butler's evaluation is his expectation that he's owed another $100M at 37 and 38 years of age. Normally, you trade for that guy as a rental, but who wants to rent a player that set fire to the last 4 organizations he played for and might make you the 5th.

Brutal, but Udoka is there and ownership has shown to be really aggressive spending sick money on established vet leaders, to the reward of a 2-seed and great fanfare. The only thing missing is a go-to scorer.

Trouble in moving that contract to Houston is Rockets huge raises to Sengün and Jalen Green kick in next season. If Jimmy relents on his annual amount on his extension you pay the tax, if he gets greedy well you don't pay the tax because you unloaded multiyear deals to Brooks, Landale, and Whitmore (who is disgruntled) and you still have a stable of draft picks.

Houston put themselves in position to make a power play here.

Kiss of Death wrote:Speaking of Rocket Man, I think it's gonna be a long, long time before Stone answers the phone again if Riley calls offering that trade.

Yeah, well that's just like...your opinion, man.

MasterIchiro wrote:

jbk1234 wrote:

MasterIchiro wrote:
The kicker is Jimmy has the most massive contract on the move but this trade changes the Rockets budget by 1K.

It's almost like his agency accountants analyze team budgets and identify a landing spot before the plane ever takes flight.

Where the rubber meets the road on Butler's evaluation is his expectation that he's owed another $100M at 37 and 38 years of age. Normally, you trade for that guy as a rental, but who wants to rent a player that set fire to the last 4 organizations he played for and might make you the 5th.

Brutal, but Udoka is there and ownership has shown to be really aggressive spending sick money on established vet leaders, to the reward of a 2-seed and great fanfare. The only thing missing is a go-to scorer.

Trouble in moving that contract to Houston is Rockets huge raises to Sengün and Jalen Green kick in next season. If Jimmy relents on his annual amount on his extension you pay the tax, if he gets greedy well you don't pay the tax because you unloaded multiyear deals to Brooks, Landale, and Whitmore (who is disgruntled) and you still have a stable of draft picks.

Houston put themselves in position to make a power play here.

That Green extension was ill-advised and complicates matters significantly as far as the Rockets are concerned. If Detroit will take him for nothing but capspace, and if the Rockets are prepared to rip off that bandaid, I think the Pistons can absorb him his PPP notwithstanding.

jbk1234 wrote:

MasterIchiro wrote:

jbk1234 wrote:
Where the rubber meets the road on Butler's evaluation is his expectation that he's owed another $100M at 37 and 38 years of age. Normally, you trade for that guy as a rental, but who wants to rent a player that set fire to the last 4 organizations he played for and might make you the 5th.

Brutal, but Udoka is there and ownership has shown to be really aggressive spending sick money on established vet leaders, to the reward of a 2-seed and great fanfare. The only thing missing is a go-to scorer.

Trouble in moving that contract to Houston is Rockets huge raises to Sengün and Jalen Green kick in next season. If Jimmy relents on his annual amount on his extension you pay the tax, if he gets greedy well you don't pay the tax because you unloaded multiyear deals to Brooks, Landale, and Whitmore (who is disgruntled) and you still have a stable of draft picks.

Houston put themselves in position to make a power play here.

That Green extension was ill-advised and complicates matters significantly as far as the Rockets are concerned. If Detroit will take him for nothing but capspace, and if the Rockets are prepared to rip off that bandaid, I think the Pistons can absorb him his PPP notwithstanding.

I'd rather just pay the tax next season, and let the contract to FVV expire at conclusion. Have to develop Sheppard somehow sometime before that time arrives.

36 year old Butler is a nice gamble for 2 year MLE.

Paying 100m + assets for him is a death sentence.

No thank you.

MoreyWins wrote:I love Jimmy Butler as a player, but getting in long-term business with him seems like an idea bound to have complications. I would take a one year flyer on Butler, but not at the price of valuable assets.

To me, where your team is, it would not be wise to add Butler because you have such a bright future ahead and a well managed cap. Putting a 50M timebomb is just asking for a problem.

jbk1234 wrote:That Green extension was ill-advised and complicates matters significantly as far as the Rockets are concerned. If Detroit will take him for nothing but capspace, and if the Rockets are prepared to rip off that bandaid, I think the Pistons can absorb him his PPP notwithstanding.

The very last place in the NBA that that egotistical idiot chucker Jalen Green is going to end up is Detroit. He flamed the entire city and organization when we took Cade over him and has not backed down from his comments one bit.

Screw him.

The Rockets have done a really good job drafting and adding vets these last few years, with very few mistakes. But Jalen Green and his big extension is one big mistake, and I highly doubt Detroit has any interest in fixing that.

[quote="jbk1234"][quote="MasterIchiro"][quote="jbk1234"]

Where the rubber meets the road on Butler's evaluation is his expectation that he's owed another $100M at 37 and 38 years of age. Normally, you trade for that guy as a rental, but who wants to rent a player that set fire to the last 4 organizations he played for and might make you the 5th.[/quote]

Brutal, but Udoka is there and ownership has shown to be really aggressive spending sick money on established vet leaders, to the reward of a 2-seed and great fanfare. The only thing missing is a go-to scorer.

Trouble in moving that contract to Houston is Rockets huge raises to Sengün and Jalen Green kick in next season. If Jimmy relents on his annual amount on his extension you pay the tax, if he gets greedy well you don't pay the tax because you unloaded multiyear deals to Brooks, Landale, and Whitmore (who is disgruntled) and you still have a stable of draft picks.

Houston put themselves in position to make a power play here.[/quote]

That Green extension was ill-advised and complicates matters significantly as far as the Rockets are concerned. If Detroit will take him for nothing but capspace, and if the Rockets are prepared to rip off that bandaid, I think the Pistons can absorb him his PPP notwithstanding.[/quote]

Detroit has 14 mil in cap space.
Detroit can take in JalenGreen (12.4 counts as 29.4PPP) and send out THJ (16.1).
Funny thing I wonder is - after the deal, how much cap space that leaves for Detroit. Technically, it seems like they would be adding $3.7 by sending out THJ and bringing in JalenGreen. The PPP effect - does it continue to leach on to the cap space or does it disappear?
In other words, say that deal happened - is DET down to less than a mil in cap space or does DET have $17.7 in cap space?