Miami-Suns-Denver-Utah

[ThaFranchize84]

Putting aside 4 team trades are really difficult to begin with and add in the complexity of first and second aprons and it makes them that much more difficult. Despite these challenges I wanted to get feedback on the following deal:

Suns get Butler

Nuggets get Beal

Utah gets Porter Jr, Zeke Nnaji, Josh Richardson and one of the Nuggets young guys along with Suns 2031 pick

Heat gets John Collins, Collin Sexton, Saric and the Denver 2026 and 2031 2nd rd picks from the Suns.

Why?

Suns get their guy.

Nuggets combine Porter Jr and Nnaji salaries to add Beal. They really only add $7 more million in future money by adding Beal.

Miami gets Collins and Sexton who both can fit into their rotation and have contracts that expire by 2026. Miami also gets some future 2nd rd picks.

Utah turns Collins and Sexton into Porter Jr, Nnaji and Pickett. All 3 players can fit into their future plans. Richardson is an expiring deal that could be bought out or moved again. They also add another incredibly valuable future pick 2031 FRP to their pick arsenal.

Thoughts.


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[BBallFreak]

I don't see Denver taking Beal.

You need to differentiate which youngsters Utah is getting because that might be the linchpin of the entire deal.

For Miami's part, yes, obviously.

[psman2]

Why would Denver trade for the older, more expensive and worse player. If Denver would do this then it would have already been done even before the Butler trade demands.

I think they would just go with LaVine over Beal if they wanted to move away from MPJ. But MPJ is playing really good this year so I just don't see the urgency on their part.

[OutsidetheNBA]

I think it generally makes sense.

Not sure it's the direction Denver wants to go. But at the minimum, it should be Pickett going out, not Strawther, Braun, or Watson. They could probably also use another backup big with Nnaji and Saric leaving. Maybe Love or Eubanks?

I think the Heat end up accepting this deal without the 2nds. I imagine they go to Utah instead.

There also might be personality issues: Ainge and Riley hate each other and -- Ainge being Ainge -- he might make unreasonable demands that kill the deal.

[ThaFranchize84]

I don't see Denver taking Beal.

You need to differentiate which youngsters Utah is getting because that might be the linchpin of the entire deal.

For Miami's part, yes, obviously.

Thanks. I edited it to add Pickett based on initial feedback.


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[OutsidetheNBA]

Why would Denver trade for the older, more expensive and worse player. If Denver would do this then it would have already been done even before the Butler trade demands.

I think they would just go with LaVine over Beal if they wanted to move away from MPJ. But MPJ is playing really good this year so I just don't see the urgency on their part.

I'm not sure Denver should trade MPJ for Beal, but I could see why they would. Basically a trade of size for creation. Injury risk about the same. MPJ has been terrible in the playoffs, Beal has had some good series. Peyton Watson has been playing great recently and can slide into the 3/4 spot that MPJ vacates.

Another benefit is that an MPJ-Lavine swap probably requires Denver to add value. Here they get their shooting guard while also getting out of the terrible Nnaji/Saric deals.

[psman2]

Why would Denver trade for the older, more expensive and worse player. If Denver would do this then it would have already been done even before the Butler trade demands.

I think they would just go with LaVine over Beal if they wanted to move away from MPJ. But MPJ is playing really good this year so I just don't see the urgency on their part.

I'm not sure Denver should trade MPJ for Beal, but I could see why they would. Basically a trade of size for creation. Injury risk about the same. MPJ has been terrible in the playoffs, Beal has had some good series. Peyton Watson has been playing great recently and can slide into the 3/4 spot that MPJ vacates.

Another benefit is that an MPJ-Lavine swap probably requires Denver to add value. Here they get their shooting guard while also getting out of the terrible Nnaji/Saric deals.

Beal getting 16.5 points with a .539 TS% last year in a sweep is not what I would call a good series. All of his early career playoff runs are really irrelevant nearly a decade later. I don't see Beal's creation really being all that important to be honest, much rather the guy that knows his role and has won a chip playing it. MPJ has not been terrible in the playoffs either, maybe inconsistent is fair argument, but as a whole he is a very important player for them.

Those contracts are really irrelevant to the discussion, especially with Denver likely taking the worse contract in the league here.

[shrink]

I'm not sure Denver should trade MPJ for Beal, but I could see why they would. Basically a trade of size for creation. Injury risk about the same. MPJ has been terrible in the playoffs, Beal has had some good series. Peyton Watson has been playing great recently and can slide into the 3/4 spot that MPJ vacates.

Beal getting 16.5 points with a .539 TS% last year in a sweep is not what I would call a good series. All of his early career playoff runs are really irrelevant nearly a decade later.

To be fair, both players generally are the third most dangerous guy on their team, and they usually don’t face great defenders. Unfortunately last year, both had to face teams who had 2024 playoff defenses that specifically made their life harder.

Beal played four playoff games against MIN. The Wolves decided to put Towns on Durant, and KD got his. However, this meant the Wolves still had McDaniels, Ant and Nickeil Alexander Walker to provide perimeter defense, which hurt Beal.

The Nuggets three bigs provide a problem for most teams, and MPJ actually had a good initial series against the Lakers, 8.4 RPG, 23 PPG, 55% FG, 20-41 3P. But against MIN, they played Towns on Jokic, and left Gobert underneath against Gordon. Instead of being defended by a tiny player, that left long Jaden McDaniels for MPJ. 6.7 RPG, 10.7 PPG, 31.3% FG, 13-40 3P.

My point is that those small samples shouldn’t be large parts of our valuations of either player, because other things were certainly going on.

[psman2]

I'm not sure Denver should trade MPJ for Beal, but I could see why they would. Basically a trade of size for creation. Injury risk about the same. MPJ has been terrible in the playoffs, Beal has had some good series. Peyton Watson has been playing great recently and can slide into the 3/4 spot that MPJ vacates.

Beal getting 16.5 points with a .539 TS% last year in a sweep is not what I would call a good series. All of his early career playoff runs are really irrelevant nearly a decade later.

To be fair, both players generally are the third most dangerous guy on their team, and they usually don’t face great defenders. Unfortunately last year, both had to face teams who had 2024 playoff defenses that specifically made their life harder.

Beal played four playoff games against MIN. The Wolves decided to put Towns on Durant, and KD got his. However, this meant the Wolves still had McDaniels, Ant and Nickeil Alexander Walker to provide perimeter defense, which hurt Beal.

The Nuggets three bigs provide a problem for most teams, and MPJ actually had a good initial series against the Lakers, 8.4 RPG, 23 PPG, 55% FG, 20-41 3P. But against MIN, they played Towns on Jokic, and left Gobert underneath against Gordon. Instead of being defended by a tiny player, that left long Jaden McDaniels for MPJ. 6.7 RPG, 10.7 PPG, 31.3% FG, 13-40 3P.

My point is that those small samples shouldn’t be large parts of our valuations of either player, because other things were certainly going on.

They weren't large parts. Just refuting that Beal has some recent relevant playoff success that outshines MPJ in any way.

[BigGargamel]

This again?

Again..Beal may be a slightly better player in a vacuum (though I disagree). But he needs the ball in his hands to be effective. He's not a spot up shooter. And Denver really needs MPJ's size and rebounding. They're already a small team, if they swap him for Beal they would get absolutely killed on the glass. MPJ plays every day, and he knows how to work with Jokic.

I'm not against trading MPJ, but for Beal just makes no sense, no matter how often it gets posted. It creates much more issues than it solves.

[Ghost of Kleine]

No thanks from Phoenix. Butler isn't going to change our trajectory enough to warrant giving up our 2031 and last 2nds we have left. Beal off the bench is working pretty well. But the bottom line is that whether with Beal or with Butler, our ceiling (as constructed) is a 2nd round out at best!

The majority of suns fans understand that adding Butler is pointless as it won't really get us significantly closer to contention. And itd just be tripling down on the same overpaying mistakes that owner overly ambitious owner made that robbed us of our future.