RealGM

Two questions...

1. Which teams are sellers pre-deadline, and who are they offering?

2. Which teams are buyers with the tax flexibility to make trades, the ability to match outgoing salary, and can offer picks as incentives?

Some references...

For outgoing matching salary check: https://www.spotrac.com/nba/rankings/player/_/year/2024/sort/cap_total

For draft picks owned: https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/future_drafts/detailed

For Tax Space: https://www.spotrac.com/nba/tax/_/year/2024/sort/tax_bill/dir/desc
---Note: $178.132 million for the first apron and $188.931 million for the second apron

For Trade Exceptions: https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2012/02/outstanding-trade-exceptions.html

Dallas should be a buyer, but the flexibility is limited as they are flush up against the first apron where they are already hardcapped. And they have limited picks. Still they have made a deadline deal like 7 or 8 years in a row, so expect them to at least try to do something.

Texas Chuck wrote:Dallas should be a buyer, but the flexibility is limited as they are flush up against the first apron where they are already hardcapped. And they have limited picks. Still they have made a deadline deal like 7 or 8 years in a row, so expect them to at least try to do something.

What would they be looking to get? Who would they use as outgoing salary?

rockets are soft buyers probably. Playing to well to make a big splash right now, just let it play out, get your butts kicked in the playoffs and evaluate in the offseason feels like the move. Could use shooting and maybe a third guard upgrade, my thoughts were Lonzo or Brogdan for seconds

Sellers...

Bulls: LaVine, Vuc, Lonzo
Nets: Cam
Wizards: Kuzma, Brogdon
Trail Blazers: Ayton, Simons, Grant
Pelicans: Ingram

Any other sellers/noteworthy names?

NYG wrote:

Texas Chuck wrote:Dallas should be a buyer, but the flexibility is limited as they are flush up against the first apron where they are already hardcapped. And they have limited picks. Still they have made a deadline deal like 7 or 8 years in a row, so expect them to at least try to do something.

What would they be looking to get? Who would they use as outgoing salary?

I think if they could upgrade backup big, they would like to do that or a more dependable 3rd option.

Matching is tough. I guess Kleber/Powell/Exum/Prosper/Gafford could all be used. Fanbase would love to use Klay but I think that's tough.

Pels with CJ and Ingram. Wouldn’t be shocked if they somewhat buy in that they may try and add a rotational player as part of one of these bigger trades. Backup big ideally

Warriors should be buyers, but probably either do nothing or dump some salary to avoid the tax.

Jazz are most likely a seller who can also take on additional money to help other teams dip below the tax.

SkyHook wrote:Jazz are most likely a seller who can also take on additional money to help other teams dip below the tax.

What would you charge to dump salary?

Indy’s probably sitting out, but carefully watching just in case a long term piece shakes loose?

NYG wrote:

SkyHook wrote:Jazz are most likely a seller who can also take on additional money to help other teams dip below the tax.

What would you charge to dump salary?

I posted this on Monday...

"A couple years ago, I learned from a respected economist with NBA ties that a luxury tax bomb is about to go off in the NBA. It’s happening."

Lots to think about in this article, anticipating that teams with cap room or even luxury tax room will have significantly more leverage in negotiations.

https://www.truehoop.com/p/the-truehoop-trade-debate

I don't have a great feel for what the costs will be; I imagine that there will be a high degree of variability. Money attached to bad players will require more assets than for good players. Money into next season will require more assets than expiring contracts. I don't see Utah taking on salary beyond next season.

What do you have in mind?

For the purposes of this forum and how our players are viewed nationally, I'm guessing Minnesota will be considered sellers.

However, I think within a "sell" trade, they will buy someone who will turn out to be a key piece.

MIN should be buyers with holes at starting PG and back up Center, but they are limited by restrictions:

Second Apron concerns top the list. Fans may want Randle traded, but he either leads the team or is second in points, rebounds and assists, so his loss creates more holes. His salary may be expiring as well, and MIN probably hopes to escape the second apron next year (or possibly even get under the lux, if ARod and Lore win ownership were honest with their plan to the other owners).

Their tradeable assets are likely Randle (see above), Nickeil Alexander-Walker (exp), youth (Josh Minott, #27 pick Terrence Shannon Jr) or the 2025 DET 1st (top 13 prot, currently 15-17). They’re overloaded with SG’s (Ant, DiVincenzo, NAW, Shannon).

Just like in the standings, MIN is stuck in the middle between buyers and sellers.

Portland is definitely selling.
Grant, Ayton and Anfernee top the list of hoping to move.
After that we have RW3, Thybulle, Reath and Banton who could all potentially help contenders in some fashion or another.

Pelicans - Sellers

I think at the end of the trade deadline, Pels end up moving Ingram as a rental for a protected first and mostly expiring salary. I could see Jose and maybe Hawkins included in a trade depending on the return or if the Pels need their salary to duck the tax.

Pels won’t pay to just dump CJ, but I think they will get a slightly positive return for him. Zion won’t get moved and they will wait until the offseason to make a decision on Herb as it seems like he may get shut down with a shoulder surgery.

Actively trying to move:
Ingram, CJ, anyone expiring

Willing to move in larger trade:
Jose, Hawkins, Reeves

Would move, but wont get value they’d require:
Zion, Murray

Would move, but would require an overpay:
Herb

Won’t move:
Trey, Missi

For Charlotte, how about both?

Small selling blended with small buying?

Nothing too dramatic that would interfere significantly with our lottery odds.

Toronto are sellers

on the block:
Boucher
Brown
Olynyk

Should be on the block but reportedly isn't
Poeltl

Which buyers have big matching salaries?

I doubt the Rockets do anything.
Jock Landale is probably available and they can take back as much as $15.5 M for his $8 M (basically expiring) contract.
They have an open roster spot and can use the NTMLE to take on a player without sending anything out.
They’ll probably listen to what’s available, then wait for the buyout market.
If nothing materializes, I could see them converting Nate Williams two-way to a standard contract for the rest of the season.